List Mgmt. Our Trade/FA, Suburban & Country Town Thread

[No SPIN]

Story.

Carlton is pulling hard on the reins well before it plummets over the edge of a list cliff.

Collingwood is not afraid to charge right up to the edge and teeter on the brink like in an old-style Western movie, hopeful it pulls back in the nick of time.

These two famous rivals are both in the hunt for a hugely expensive half back in Dan Houston to further their premiership aspirations.

But while Collingwood is all in – prepared to hand over another future first-rounder for a 27-year-older – the Blues are prioritising the draft.

Only if they can find another first-rounder and also take four draft selections will they jump at Houston.

It is a fascinating case study in an era when a Dad’s Army won the 2022 flag for Geelong.

Collingwood is fully prepared to back in that strategy even when it doesn’t fulfil the club’s stated goals of finding the key forward Craig McRae wants or the key back to replace Nathan Murphy.

If Collingwood wins a flag next year with Houston and free agent Harry Perryman in its side, those Pies fans will echo the Richmond fans post-dynasty.

As in who cares what it all costs.

And yet the risk is even more apparent when you crunch the numbers for Collingwood based on Champion Data’s relative ratings.

Even before you consider the nine players who will be 30-plus on the Pies list next year, assess the performances of their 25-and-unders.

Of the club’s 14 players in that age bracket to play a game last year, only a single one was in the positive based on their expected performance compared to players of a similar age across the competition.

Of course it was Nick Daicos, who was 62 per cent above his expected return.

Ed Allan was technically the second player with a positive rating but his sample size was tiny – two games in which he admitted looked the goods.

Beau McCreery, Norm Smith Medallist Bobby Hill and Isaac Quaynor are all huge talents but all had negative ratings for 2024.

Make of that what you will given Hill still kicked 30 goals and McCreery took a step as a midfielder as well as pressure forward.

In contrast the Blues had 15 players 25-and-under who averaged 14 games this year _ with five boasting a positive relative rating in addition to Cooper Lord (only two games).

Carlton has underperformed but few in the competition have a better spread of elite talls.

Carlton has the better ruckman for the future in Tom De Koning (even if 29-year-old Darcy Cameron had a phenomenal year), the younger full back (Weitering over Moore), the better key talls (Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay).

And yet the Pies could add in two flankers in Houston and Perryman while giving up a future first-rounder while Carlton backs in the draft.

There is a salary cap component – Collingwood is coming into money, while Carlton’s list is top-heavy with big fat contracts.

But Collingwood, already the oldest list in footy by age (27.5) and average matches (128.5) will be positively geriatric next year.

They already have five players older than Carlton’s oldest player in Nic Newman.

Scott Pendlebury, Jeremy Howe, Steele Sidebottom, Mason Cox, Jamie Elliott and Brody Mihocek will be playing as 32-year olds at some stage next year.

Tom Mitchell, Will Hoskin-Elliott and Jack Crisp will join them as 30-year-olds.

For Carlton only Nic Newman and Sam Docherty played as 30-year-olds this year, Newman only 31 and Docherty playing only two AFL games.

The Blues 25-and-unders include Tom De Koning, Adam Cerra, Matt Cottrell, Sam Walsh, Brodie Kemp, Elijah Hollands, Jesse Motlop, Ollie Hollands.

Curnow is only 27, while Harry McKay and Jacob Weitering played at 26.

And yet Collingwood is still all in on Houston despite so many question marks over their under-25s.

Joe Richards is off to Port Adelaide, Nathan Kreuger, Reef McInness and Charlie Dean are in limbo, Finlay Macrae was repeatedly dropped last year and might not make it.

Harvey Harrison is recovering from an ACL tear, while Wil Parker played five games and Ned Long was handed seven chances.

It is crazy brave by Collingwood even as they prepare to welcome Mick McGuane’s son Tom as a father-son in 2026.

Carlton is ensuring its premiership window opens long into the future.

Collingwood is crazy brave.

Some would even say reckless, but you have to admire their courage to saddle up again despite the inherent risks.

This outlines the absurdity of the analysis:

"Beau McCreery, Norm Smith Medallist Bobby Hill and Isaac Quaynor are all huge talents but all had negative ratings for 2024.

Make of that what you will given Hill still kicked 30 goals and McCreery took a step as a midfielder as well as pressure forward.

In contrast the Blues had 15 players 25-and-under who averaged 14 games this year _ with five boasting a positive relative rating in addition to Cooper Lord (only two games)."

Ralph making a big deal of the 25 and under supposed superiority of the Blue - is rubbish given his own figure showed 10/15 had negative years. So only 5 had positive years.
While at the same time he bags proven players under 25 in Bobby, McCreery and IQ, while praising Allen and ND.
Plain dumb when also adding a 2 year difference in age between Moore and Weitering as significant.

Maybe he should go to Footywire and see both teams will have similar a number of players 29 or over in 2025.

 

[nahnah]

Got hopefully my final CPA exam on Thursday and trying to get revision done with the trade period going on is fk HELL.

you're not the most placid accountant i've come across

 

[Cousin of Daicos]

Jon Ralph is gross man

"So what Collingwood and Gold Coast are scheming..."

What kind of fu**king language is that you gutter trash? Why are we "scheming"? Who are we hiding our dealings from? Why aren't we just two clubs trying to work out the best possible deal for both parties?

Why the f**k is a Richmond supporter worried for Carlton's welfare?

Dickhead

 

[Scodog10]

we have our own leverage with noble too, time for a game of chicken

Yeah it seems a pretty straightforward case of us holding Noble to his contract if we can’t add Houston.

I have no issue whatsoever with GC manoeuvring for leverage on Noble, but the problem is it breeds cheerleading within the media. The frustration I have is that we have the likes of Ralph and Edmund lobbing turds at our plans at any opportunity and then a Collingwood supporting journo piles on as well. For all we know our plan is to secure Houston along with something in the top 30 to take to the draft…

 

[Pedro]

Houston looks like a Carlton player. I reckon he gives off Marc Murphy vibes (*)

* Happy to eat those words if he ends up coming to us.

Geez thats a low blow

 

[Bramax]

Remember that day we had 2 top 10 picks in Freeman and Scharenberg. That ended up well.

Painful to think about. So many other good players missed that year.

 

[Scodog10]

you're not the most placid accountant i've come across

I would have guessed fitter and turner or plasterer!

 

[AmericanMustard]

Yeah it seems a pretty straightforward case of us holding Noble to his contract if we can’t add Houston.

I have no issue whatsoever with GC manoeuvring for leverage on Noble, but the problem is it breeds cheerleading within the media. The frustration I have is that we have the likes of Ralph and Edmund lobbing turds at our plans at any opportunity and then a Collingwood supporting journo piles on as well. For all we know our plan is to secure Houston along with something in the top 30 to take to the draft…

Maybe it’s my naivety but does it really matter what half the gutter trash journos type and put out there? Especially in club land?

How much weight do we put on that Gold Coast wanting to be a destination club, sure it might only be one instance but I wouldn’t want to be getting a reputation of getting a contracted player public say he wants to go and then you can’t close the deal because you want a slightly better draft pick you probably won’t even use..

 

[Pedro]

No I mean pies offering F1 and Noble for 13 and 23. But Suns only want to give 13 for noble. They don't want to include 23 in that as well.

We'll see how much they want hime the. Without that pick 23, we could be essentially just giving him away, or worse if we have a rubbish year next year.

 

[Pistol Night]

Id rather a key defender tbh, if we snag Houston and add a key back, we’ll be well placed going into next season.

Bring Roughy out of retirement for a year. We didn't realise how valuable he was

 

[TradeDraft]

 

[ElliottsMaggies]

Has he got the results of the medical?

 

[Pistol Night]

We know about Champion Data and their dodgy ratings.
"numbers for Collingwood based on Champion Data’s relative ratings"

"They already have five players older than Carlton’s oldest player in Nic Newman"
All of them are better than Newman.

"And yet the Pies could add in two flankers in Houston and Perryman while giving up a future first-rounder while Carlton backs in the draft"
One of those flankers is a dual AA and the other will be playing as a mid.

"Curnow is only 27"
So is Houston.

Etc.
What a load of drivel.

Hes just an absolute dickhead of the highest order this moron

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

I would be quite happy if we pick up Houston and Perryman.
Add that into a side with Mitchell and McStay for the full season - that will do nicely.

And DeGoey
And Mihocek

 

[Chameleon75]

And DeGoey
And Mihocek

+ Elliott

 

[Jen2310]

Might...

Who says we won't pick up a talented 18 year old kpf in this year's draft?

Who says Allan, Harry won't develop into quality midfielders?

Who says with the extra cash we'll have at the end of next year, we can't lure someone like LDU?

And we ARE getting Tom McGuane in 2026.

technically, he'll be drafted in just over 12 months time.

 

[Pistol Night]

I would be quite happy if we pick up Houston and Perryman.
Add that into a side with Mitchell and McStay for the full season - that will do nicely.

And a bloke called DeGoey goes ok too

 

[ElliottsMaggies]

technically, he'll be drafted in just over 12 months time.

Playing in 2026..

 

[Scodog10]

Maybe it’s my naivety but does it really matter what half the gutter trash journos type and put out there? Especially in club land?

How much weight do we put on that Gold Coast wanting to be a destination club, sure it might only be one instance but I wouldn’t want to be getting a reputation of getting a contracted player public say he wants to go and then you can’t close the deal because you want a slightly better draft pick you probably won’t even use..

It doesn’t in the slightest I’m talking my own thought process. Deep down I know these stories on the permutations of trades are just projections of the “scheming” going on and that the end result will sit in the middle somewhere because of the mass of moving parts in and around the three clubs (Collingwood, Port and GC).

We don’t have many allies in the media so reading Niall project his concerns for the club on to us when the likes of Ralph and Edmund are cheerleading the anti Pies campaign is a lot to digest. This is a symptom of the constrained time period of the trade period. If it was a 6 month window the deals can develop organically and there isn’t a frenzy around the process.

 

[Babylove]

Got hopefully my final CPA exam on Thursday and trying to get revision done with the trade period going on is fk HELL.

Had mine yesterday (hopefully). Good luck

 

[sr36]

I think some of these commentators may also be underestimating what we're setting aside for free agency over the next couple of years. That's not to say we can get everyone we have on the whiteboard but we can potentially achieve a lot with cap space , even without a fantastic draft hand.

Unless they think that drafting a couple of 18 year olds with middle of the first round picks is actually going to keep us up, their argument seems to be: drop down Pies, don't try to stay up.

Personally though, I think they're just getting clicks.

 

[Jen2310]

Playing in 2026..

Yes, but he'll be on our list in 2025. I thought you meant we'd get him in 2026

 

[manicpie]

But he doesnt have to get a game ahead of May and Lever. Lever doesnt play as a KPD. He plays a 3rd tall, read the play and intercept role. Melbourne always plays another tall along with May and Lever - MacDonald, Petty or Tomlinson. In short its MacDonald or Petty that Tomlinson needed to get a game ahead of...

Even more reason why he's not getting a game.

 

[Jafo]

I’m always weary about picking through the saints hard rubbish collection.

Who knows. You might find a BJ in there

 

[Piesinfront]

Yeah it seems a pretty straightforward case of us holding Noble to his contract if we can’t add Houston.

I have no issue whatsoever with GC manoeuvring for leverage on Noble, but the problem is it breeds cheerleading within the media. The frustration I have is that we have the likes of Ralph and Edmund lobbing turds at our plans at any opportunity and then a Collingwood supporting journo piles on as well. For all we know our plan is to secure Houston along with something in the top 30 to take to the draft…

If the Pies can get hold of 13 from the Suns, then we have a good shot at Houston (All Aust quality in prime), and if we cant get a deal done for Houston we should be pitching hard at Bailey Smith....13 would give us an edge and Smith could be a starting mid and difference maker at the pies ....arguably a greater positional need than Houston......but either way both top quality players that would significantly improve our list.....with fall back is take 13 to the draft