Toast Path to finals - We're in the Eight baby!!

[The King!]

I put together a ladder, locking in the top 4 and bottom 4 teams. The middle 10 teams are in a race for spots 5-8 on the ladder.

In this hypothetical scenario, I've assumed each team will lose to a top 4 side, and will beat a bottom 8 side, and will split the games against the other 10 mid-tier teams (hence the teams that play the other mid-tier teams an odd number have a range).

Of course, each of the teams below are capable of beating a top 4 side, and could also drop a game against a bottom 4 side.

Of the 50 games below, 28 involve the mid-tier teams playing each other. 9 are against bottom 4 sides, 13 are against top 4 side.

Pos R19	Team	Points	R20	R21	R22	R23	R24	Points
4th	MEL	48
5th	WB	40	GWS	RIC	HAW	WCE	GEE	52-56
6th	STK	40	HAW	CAR	RIC	GEE	BRI	48-52
7th	GWS	40	WB	SYD	PA	ESS	CAR	48
8th	GEE	38	FRE	PA	COL	STK	WB	46
9th	CAR	38	COL	STK	MEL	GCS	GWS	42-46
10th	RIC	38	MEL	WB	STK	NM	PA	46
11th	ESS	36	SYD	WCE	NM	GWS	COL	48
12th	SYD	34	ESS	GWS	GCS	ADE	MEL	42
13th	ADE	32	PA	GCS	BRI	SYD	WCE	40
14th	GCS	32	BL	ADE	SYD	CAR	NM	40-44
15th	FRE	28

Hypothetical 1, detailed in the above post, we finish 12th. This scenario assumes we lose to Melbourne and drop 2 of the other 4 matches. This is the least likely scenario, but I used it as a starting point.

Team	Hyp 1 Pts	Hyp 1 Pos
WB	52-56	5th
STK	48-52	6th
GWS	48	7th
ESS	48	8th
GEE	46	9th
RIC	46	10th
CAR	42-46	11th
SYD	42	12th
GCS	40-44	13th
ADE	40	14th

Hypothetical 2 still assumes teams will beat bottom 4 sides and lose to top 4 sides. However, in this scenario, I have awarded the win against fellow mid-tier teams to the team with the higher %.

In this scenario, we lose against Adelaide in R23 and Melbourne in R24 to finish 9th on 46 points. However, we’re only 1.7% behind Adelaide, and given we’re projected to win the next 3 rounds, and Adelaide are expected to drop 2, we very well could be in front by the time we play them, paving the way for us to win the 4 matches we need to make finals heading into R24 against Melbourne.

Team	Hyp 2 Pts	Hyp 2 Pos
WB	56	5th
GEE	50	6th
CAR	50	7th
STK	48	8th
SYD	46	9th
GWS	44	10th
ADE	44	11th
ESS	44	12th
RIC	42	13th
GCS	36	14th

Hypothetical 3 still assumes teams will beat bottom 4 sides and lose to top 4 sides. However, in this scenario, I have awarded the win against fellow mid-tier teams to the team with the best form over the last 5 rounds (based purely off W/L/D, so a fairly crude representation of form – GWS & CAR both 5/5 so are assumed to beat other mid-tier teams).

In this scenario, we beat Adelaide on form, but lose to GWS, leaving us on 46 points, with the 8th team on 50 points (the highest of the 3 hypothetical scenarios).

Team	Hyp 3 pts	Hyp 3 pos
GWS	52​	5th
GEE	50​	6th
CAR	50​	7th
RIC	50​	8th
WB	48​	9th
SYD	46​	10th
STK	44​	11th
ESS	44​	12th
GCS	40​	13th
ADE	36​	14th

We miss finals in each of the 3 scenarios, which demonstrates how big a challenge it will be to get there, but scenario 2 gives us the best chance and is hopefully how things will pan out for us. Of course we can always book our finals ticket against Melbourne in R24 if we happen to drop one of the other 4 matches.

 

[Kiama Chris]

The current "Percentage Ladder" all over 100:
1 Pies 136.5
2 Lions 130.0
3 Dees 123.7
4 Cats 121.0
5 Blues 116.1
6 Port 113.7
7 Crows 113.5
8 Swans 111.8
9 Dogs 106.4
10 Saints 104.7
11 Giants 102.2
Won't be a mile off it at the end I think. Port might be 4th. Giants might sneak in at our expense.

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

Players are going to be running on fumes if we somehow make it.

 

[MR0808]

Players are going to be running on fumes if we somehow make it.

Like 2017

 

[bloodsbigot]

Giants, as usual, will lift for our game to attempt to prove that they mean something. I'm actually most scared of that game out of our 5.

You'd think Melbourne won't be trying too hard in the final game if they lock in a top 4 finish and trying to prevent injuries.

 

[sataris]

Too early for me to bump the lid thread?

 

[the hypnotoad]

i think carlton, adelaide and gws all gettable
we play two of them, so it'll be up to us
the comedy element will be essendon ... if we can beat them this week, they'll then try to kid themselves they're still in the race by beating west coast and north (ha, well, maybe), then they have the giants and collingwood

 

[The King!]

Will the club have a sunday function after we lose the grand final this year?

 

[SM]

i think carlton, adelaide and gws all gettable
we play two of them, so it'll be up to us
the comedy element will be essendon ... if we can beat them this week, they'll then try to kid themselves they're still in the race by beating west coast and north (ha, well, maybe), then they have the giants and collingwood

Yep benefit of our fixture is in some ways it's in our hands due to who we play.

 

[SM]

Players are going to be running on fumes if we somehow make it.

Is it any different to our winning streak last year that saw us knock off the Dees and Pies? I don't see how the win against the Eagles, as an example, took a jot out of the squad. Freo didn't seem too tough either given we held them at arms length almost all game.

 

[ashep]

If we win the next 2 against the Bombers and Giants, we'll make it.

 

[Jewelsbon]

If we win the next 2 against the Bombers and Giants, we'll make it.

Exactly as I see it too.

 

[RUNVS]

If we win the next 2 against the Bombers and Giants, we'll make it.

Both are very gettable matches.

 

[GoTheSwannies]

We basically can't drop 2, so if we drop 1 against the teams we should beat then the Demons game becomes an elimination final.

Edit: If we drop a game, then our season turns into a series of elimination games. Up until the point we hoist the trophy of course

 

[RUNVS]

We basically can't drop 2, so if we drop 1 against the teams we should beat then the Demons game becomes an elimination final.

Edit: If we drop a game, then our season turns into a series of elimination games. Up until the point we hoist the trophy of course

It would be hilarious if we somehow managed to win the flag. It would be the greatest WTF moment in AFL history.

 

[Jewelsbon]

It would be hilarious if we somehow managed to win the flag. It would be the greatest WTF moment in AFL history.

Could you imagine the Vic media

 

[Jewelsbon]

It would be hilarious if we somehow managed to win the flag. It would be the greatest WTF moment in AFL history.

The Bulldogs were hailed as heroes for winning it from 7th, as manipulated as it was, we do it and we would be the devil incarnate!

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

Is it any different to our winning streak last year that saw us knock off the Dees and Pies? I don't see how the win against the Eagles, as an example, took a jot out of the squad. Freo didn't seem too tough either given we held them at arms length almost all game.

Well we look much more banged up this season and the inability to run out games.

Guess we will see but can see us getting done by Adelaide, GWS and Melbourne.

 

[SM]

Well we look much more banged up this season and the inability to run out games.

Guess we will see but can see us getting done by Adelaide, GWS and Melbourne.

The inability to run out games is down to our pre-season not our run to Finals. We've struggled all year with that, it hasn't creeped in.

 

[caesar88]

Well we look much more banged up this season and the inability to run out games.

Guess we will see but can see us getting done by Adelaide, GWS and Melbourne.

Yeah that is why I'm not convinced we're a genuine chance at finals, and won't believe it until we're there. IMO if anything the brick wall is coming and it's gonna hit us hard. It's got nothing to do with being negative, but it's being realistic. We are now in a position where we are relying on players who are running on fumes to win us games as they haven't been managed. All are must-win games now so we've missed our chance to manage them, too busy playing them in games we ended up losing anyway.

 

[the hypnotoad]

Yeah that is why I'm not convinced we're a genuine chance at finals, and won't believe it until we're there. IMO if anything the brick wall is coming and it's gonna hit us hard. It's got nothing to do with being negative, but it's being realistic. We are now in a position where we are relying on players who are running on fumes to win us games as they haven't been managed. All are must-win games now so we've missed our chance to manage them, too busy playing them in games we ended up losing anyway.

this seems a particularly harsh criticism of the coaching staff
we've been affected by key injuries all season, and for half of it we weren't going near well enough to "manage" players, and i'm not even sure what players you think could've been "managed" ... our defence has been missing key players all year; of our two main rucks, one has been injured, the other is a lion-hearted crock
it's been a scramble to get a patchwork team to this point, i can't see how it could've been done differently

they're elite young athletes and they've played what, 19, 20 games?
at this stage of the season most players are likely to be carrying some kind of niggling issue, it won't be just us
franklin has been managed to a degree, i suppose, parker could probably do with a break but i can't imagine coaches would get very far trying to tell him that
of the rest, heeney and mills? on the weekend they looked as good and as healthy as they have all season

from this point, if we don't make finals it's because we haven't been quite good enough over the season
we hit our brick wall about three months ago, it's been an admirable effort to even be in a position to be discussing finals

 

[Big Blood]

IT'S THE FINALS COUNTDOWN.




No better way to confront the coming crucial five weeks than with this banger. The club should shed the tedious 'one week at a time' mantra and adopt this 80s classic as the Swans' theme, every time we train, every time we play. I'd ask Sydney Airport to put it on blast for the traveling Swans.

There's no better tune to pump up the players and the crowd. Would've been worth at least five goals in last year's GF. It might stop the players loading up on Ed Sheeran and Taylor Swift, which explain our last quarter fadeouts.

Plus the great cultural experience of an entire band sporting the Platten cut.

 

[caesar88]

this seems a particularly harsh criticism of the coaching staff
we've been affected by key injuries all season, and for half of it we weren't going near well enough to "manage" players, and i'm not even sure what players you think could've been "managed" ... our defence has been missing key players all year; of our two main rucks, one has been injured, the other is a lion-hearted crock
it's been a scramble to get a patchwork team to this point, i can't see how it could've been done differently

they're elite young athletes and they've played what, 19, 20 games?
at this stage of the season most players are likely to be carrying some kind of niggling issue, it won't be just us
franklin has been managed to a degree, i suppose, parker could probably do with a break but i can't imagine coaches would get very far trying to tell him that
of the rest, heeney and mills? on the weekend they looked as good and as healthy as they have all season

from this point, if we don't make finals it's because we haven't been quite good enough over the season
we hit our brick wall about three months ago, it's been an admirable effort to even be in a position to be discussing finals

My point is that we've played guys to try and salvage something resembling our best 22 through injuries etc., but it's all been in vain anyway. We've lost 9 games this year. That's 9 games we might as well've managed others too. It's easy to say this with the benefit of hindsight, but do we really need hindsight to know you won't win many games playing blokes carrying niggles?

I get it though, it's all been in pursuit of this moment right here, to have close to our full personnel back and to be in with a chance at finals rather than a shitty cellar dweller like North. So now we're here, and now we see how much some of these players who had to soldier on through the injury storm have left in the tank. Fingers crossed for the best.

 

[The King!]

Be a boring start to the season highlights documentary for our premiership win

 

[the hypnotoad]

My point is that we've played guys to try and salvage something resembling our best 22 through injuries etc., but it's all been in vain anyway. We've lost 9 games this year. That's 9 games we might as well've managed others too. It's easy to say this with the benefit of hindsight, but do we really need hindsight to know you won't win many games playing blokes carrying niggles?

I get it though, it's all been in pursuit of this moment right here, to have close to our full personnel back and to be in with a chance at finals rather than a shitty cellar dweller like North. So now we're here, and now we see how much some of these players who had to soldier on through the injury storm have left in the tank. Fingers crossed for the best.

that's a hindsight comment
we didn't know we were going to lose (or draw) going into those games ... and geez, 4-5 of them might still have gone our way but for a few moments of bad luck and shite kicking
and i do get your general point ...
but this has been a season of particularly harsh ill-fortune and we're still hanging in there
and as i've said for a while, the kind of hardships we've had to face could very well be the making of a lot of our very talented young players ... and while it's likely we won't reap the benefits of that til next year and beyond, maybe we're in for some pleasant surprises over the next two months or so