Pick 1 2023 Trade value - What would it take?

[bh90210fan]

He wins flags instead

Dont know how much you want to attribute that to Jackson. Freo have taken a nosedive after getting him onboard.

 

[sydney_gws]

Moat sides would be offering F1 and points

Id hope Essendon are offering F1 and 26

I think gold coast wants more. Perhaps essendon can trade 8,26 for 10,15 with bulldogs, then offer 15, 2024r1.
So overall, essendon trade
8,26, 2024r1 for 4,10.
Gold coast probably would insist on 10, not 15
being part of the deal, maybe send essendon a 2024r3.
So for essendon it is
8,26,2024r1 for 4,15 2024r3.

 

[Keystone agony]

I think gold coast wants more. Perhaps essendon can trade 8,26 for 10,15 with bulldogs, then offer 15, 2024r1.
So overall, essendon trade
8,26, 2024r1 for 4,10.
Gold coast probably would insist on 10, not 15
being part of the deal, maybe send essendon a 2024r3.
So for essendon it is
8,26,2024r1 for 4,15 2024r3.

Without thinking about it too much, I dont think id offer too much more than F1 and 26

Would they prefer Freos F1 and 21? Maybe, maybe not

 

[Down the throat]

I think gold coast wants more. Perhaps essendon can trade 8,26 for 10,15 with bulldogs, then offer 15, 2024r1.
So overall, essendon trade
8,26, 2024r1 for 4,10.
Gold coast probably would insist on 10, not 15
being part of the deal, maybe send essendon a 2024r3.
So for essendon it is
8,26,2024r1 for 4,15 2024r3.

GC won't want 10 - gets eaten up. They get better value pushing that for two seconds, one this year and next.

 

[Down the throat]

Without thinking about it too much, I dont think id offer too much more than F1 and 26

Would they prefer Freos F1 and 21? Maybe, maybe not.

I think Melbourne are likely to go 24, 34 (or whatever the Grundy pick ends up) and F1 to GC for 4.

If that gets accepted or wins the bid, then 4 and 5 as an offer to WC for 1. Might include North shuffling if required to get 2 to sate WC. We have 15 and another likely second as well, so we have options for upgrades etc - but I doubt we'll give up much more than 4 and 5.

Just take them and 15 to the draft otherwise. Likely take McKercher (pending North compo/PP), Watson and a defender at 15. Pretty good consolation prize.

 

[Keystone agony]

I think Melbourne are likely to go 24, 34 (or whatever the Grundy pick ends up) and F1 to GC for 4.

If that gets accepted or wins the bid, then 4 and 5 as an offer to WC for 1. Might include North shuffling if required to get 2 to sate WC. We have 15 and another likely second as well, so we have options for upgrades etc - but I doubt we'll give up much more than 4 and 5.

Just take them and 15 to the draft otherwise. Likely take McKercher (pending North compo/PP), Watson and a defender at 15. Pretty good consolation prize.

I dont think eagles will be too interested in 4 and 5

Ultimately means theyll have to pick 2 players with potential flight risk instead of 1

I also dont think that deals as strong as what others have been suggested. Gold Coast will get the points, they will be more focused on the best future 1st imo

Alot to play out though

 

[Fat Tony!]

I think Melbourne are likely to go 24, 34 (or whatever the Grundy pick ends up) and F1 to GC for 4.

If that gets accepted or wins the bid, then 4 and 5 as an offer to WC for 1. Might include North shuffling if required to get 2 to sate WC. We have 15 and another likely second as well, so we have options for upgrades etc - but I doubt we'll give up much more than 4 and 5.

Just take them and 15 to the draft otherwise. Likely take McKercher (pending North compo/PP), Watson and a defender at 15. Pretty good consolation prize.

#4 & #5 for #1 seems overs IMO (even though #4 & #5 will slide). It is effectively trading Watson and Caddy for Reid.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

This thread will continue to go round and round in circles for a while haha. I think the only rules that I think are required for this trade are
1) It requires WC to be interested in trading it because the trades WC posters are thinking of are never getting done
2) WC need to guarantee access to one of McKercher, Curtin and Duursma, dont have a top 5 pick, dont bother.
3) Melbourne are not offering up JVR, that's insane
4) GC are not taking a trade that doesnt involve a future 1st

 

[Keystone agony]

This thread will continue to go round and round in circles for a while haha. I think the only rules that I think are required for this trade are
1) It requires WC to be interested in trading it because the trades WC posters are thinking of are never getting done
2) WC need to guarantee access to one of McKercher, Curtin and Duursma, dont have a top 5 pick, dont bother.
3) Melbourne are not offering up JVR, that's insane
4) GC are not taking a trade that doesnt involve a future 1st

Its almost dont have a top 4 pick, dont bother then

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Its almost dont have a top 4 pick, dont bother then

Yeah I really think it’s Hawks and North and no one else really, unless Melbourne do something REALLY stupid

 

[Fat Tony!]

This thread will continue to go round and round in circles for a while haha. I think the only rules that I think are required for this trade are
1) It requires WC to be interested in trading it because the trades WC posters are thinking of are never getting done
2) WC need to guarantee access to one of McKercher, Curtin and Duursma, dont have a top 5 pick, dont bother.
3) Melbourne are not offering up JVR, that's insane
4) GC are not taking a trade that doesnt involve a future 1st

Van Rooyen is just the steak knives alongside all our picks plus Rivers and McVee!

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Van Rooyen is just the steak knives alongside all our picks plus Rivers and McVee!

I think you should ask Freo nicely and trade them Jackson

 

[Keystone agony]

Yeah I really think it’s Hawks and North and no one else really, unless Melbourne do something REALLY stupid

The Gold Coast pick 4 may become important if the eagles are happy with either of Curtin, Mckercher or Duursma rather than being all in on Curtin and only Curtin

Still only happens if Mckay doesnt get Band 1 either

The Mckay FA compo and Sanders ruling determines alot

If one of them occurs then id be happy to lose Pick 8, F1, Pick 26 and Zerk Thatcher for H.Reid

 

[Fat Tony!]

Yeah I really think it’s Hawks and North and no one else really, unless Melbourne do something REALLY stupid

Melbourne did something REALLY stupid when they overpaid to upgrade to pick up Oliver, Pickett and Bowey, so it has happened before.

 

[GoEaglesGoSGIO]

The Gold Coast pick 4 may become important if the eagles are happy with either of Curtin, Mckercher or Duursma rather than being all in on Curtin and only Curtin

Still only happens if Mckay doesnt get Band 1 either

The Mckay FA compo and Sanders ruling determines alot

If one of them occurs then id be happy to lose Pick 8, F1, Pick 26 and Zerk Thatcher for H.Reid

Can we stop talking about pick 4

Its Pick 5.

North will get pick 2 and 3

Pick 5 is Watson and not the 3 mentioned also

 

[Caligo]

Melbourne did something REALLY stupid when they overpaid to upgrade to pick up Oliver, Pickett and Bowey, so it has happened before.

What did they trade for the Oliver pick? Struggling to remember.

Edit:
Looks like it was 6 29 F1(8) for 3 10 43.

Doesn't seem like an extreme overpay at all, if anything maybe a balanced trade.

 

[Coasters7]

I dont think eagles will be too interested in 4 and 5

Ultimately means theyll have to pick 2 players with potential flight risk instead of 1

I also dont think that deals as strong as what others have been suggested. Gold Coast will get the points, they will be more focused on the best future 1st imo

Alot to play out though

It’s a strong deal on paper but like you say, no one is actually looking at the players that are available at those picks and therefore why we wouldn’t be interested.

Reid - the best player in the draft by a fair margin who may or may not be a flight risk (at this stage has been confirmed by multiple direct sources that it’s not an issue)

For two of: Caddy/Watson/Duursma

All who are lesser players and carry at least the same amount of risk as Reid. It stacks up on numbers but there isn’t the same incentive as last year for example.

 

[Mich0]

Assume rumours and media talk will dry up over the weekend and start dripping again Monday?

 

[Coasters7]

#4 & #5 for #1 seems overs IMO (even though #4 & #5 will slide). It is effectively trading Watson and Caddy for Reid.

Definitely on the high side for value but I couldn’t see WC being happy with Watson and Caddy for Reid. Seems very counterintuitive. Would need to be a top 3 pick as a starting point (Curtin or McKercher) and even then Curtin plus Caddy for Reid is still borderline.

It’s about the players that are available rather than the picks themselves. Caddy+Watson is worth more to Melbourne than WC which is why a trade looks hard unless Melbourne go absolutely all in.

 

[GoEaglesGoSGIO]

Also worth noting it isnt even pick 5 and 6

Its pick 7 and 8 with Walters and Read likely to be bid on before 5 and 6

 

[Mich0]

Definitely on the high side for value but I couldn’t see WC being happy with Watson and Caddy for Reid. Seems very counterintuitive. Would need to be a top 3 pick as a starting point (Curtin or McKercher) and even then Curtin plus Caddy for Reid is still borderline.

It’s about the players that are available rather than the picks themselves. Caddy+Watson is worth more to Melbourne than WC which is why a trade looks hard unless Melbourne go absolutely all in.

Whose to say the picks won’t be on-traded for some of Freos young stars?

 

[bzparkes]

#4 & #5 for #1 seems overs IMO (even though #4 & #5 will slide). It is effectively trading Watson and Caddy for Reid.

For the umpteenth time(and I know your suggestion isn't exactly the below but just felt like pointing it out again for anyone reading this attempting to propose the deal;

Watson & Caddy are said to be the 2 highest flight risks in the top 10 from people in recruitment circles.

Reid is not, so the suggestion from a number of people trading back due to Reid being a 'risk', only put up Caddy & Watson as the 2 players likely to be in the range of the traded picks shows that people are clueless about what actually benefits WCE in a trade back and are completely contradicting themselves with this suggestion.

 

[GoEaglesGoSGIO]

Assume rumours and media talk will dry up over the weekend and start dripping again Monday?

Ralphy has a night and day crush on Harley so I doubt it

"Their is 15 seconds to go in the Grand Final. We are all tied up here. I wonder what Harley Reid thinks of all this Sammy"

 

[Keystone agony]

It’s a strong deal on paper but like you say, no one is actually looking at the players that are available at those picks and therefore why we wouldn’t be interested.

Reid - the best player in the draft by a fair margin who may or may not be a flight risk (at this stage has been confirmed by multiple direct sources that it’s not an issue)

For two of: Caddy/Watson/Duursma

All who are lesser players and carry at least the same amount of risk as Reid. It stacks up on numbers but there isn’t the same incentive as last year for example.

Yep, 4 is only enticing to the eagles if Mckay doesnt get Band 1

Guarantees atleast a Curtin/Duursma/Mckercher available

 

[Mich0]

For the umpteenth time(and I know your suggestion isn't exactly the below but just felt like pointing it out again for anyone reading this attempting to propose the deal;

Watson & Caddy are said to be the 2 highest flight risks in the top 10 from people in recruitment circles.

Reid is not, so the suggestion from a number of people trading back due to Reid being a 'risk', only put up Caddy & Watson as the 2 players likely to be in the range of the traded picks shows that people are clueless about what actually benefits WCE in a trade back and are completely contradicting themselves with this suggestion.

Why not take O’Sullivan? Kid looks a jet and you guys could use another KPD. Will likely be some other late bolters as well.

Bont and Oliver weren’t even considered top 10 at this point of the year in there respective drafts.

Here you are again claiming to know if Reid is a flight risk or not with no-way known anybody would know what he is thinking. JHF also wasn’t considered a flight risk.