Preview Preliminary final - Hawthorn v Port Adelaide, MCG, 20 September 2014 @ 4.45pm

[Boot Studder]

Brett Rosebury? God no!

Aaaaaaaaarrrrrrrrrggggghhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!

 

[filly]

Brett Rosebury? God no!

Just about our worst possible result!!!

 

[QPower]

The week off for the Hawks is an interesting factor in considering how it will impact on the game.

One thing though - given Port's running capacity and that Hawthorn have 7 players over 30 years old, I'd be staggered if they overrun Port.

 

[Taskmaster]

The week off for the Hawks is an interesting factor in considering how it will impact on the game.

One thing though - given Port's running capacity and that Hawthorn have 7 players over 30 years old, I'd be staggered if they overrun Port.

Whats age got to do with winning a game of footy. Have you not watched any Hawthorn games over the last couple of years??? I'll take a 30 year old hardened experienced footballer over a young in experienced footballer, especially in finals, any day of the week.

So age has nothing to do with it!!!

 

[TazHawk15]

The week off for the Hawks is an interesting factor in considering how it will impact on the game.

One thing though - given Port's running capacity and that Hawthorn have 7 players over 30 years old, I'd be staggered if they overrun Port.

Given all that I trust you have put a truck load of money on Port to win?

 

[Hawkk]

The week off for the Hawks is an interesting factor in considering how it will impact on the game.

One thing though - given Port's running capacity and that Hawthorn have 7 players over 30 years old, I'd be staggered if they overrun Port.

Well given that I posted this on page 54, I'm staggered that you came up with that conclusion...

Lifted this from another board, but below is the list of quarters won by the remaining 4 sides in the competition. Overall I think this provides a reasonable indication of where the remaining sides sit in the competition.

Swans
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
16 14 15 14

Hawks
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
13 15 16 14

Port
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
13 12 14 16

North Melbourne
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
12 7 15 17

Sydney have won 59 quarters from 92 possible quarters (64.1%)
Hawthorn have won 58 quarters from 92 possible quarters (63.04%)
Port Adelaide have won 55 quarters from 96 possible quarters (57.29%
North Melbourne have won 51 quarters from 96 possible quarters (53.13%)

By percentage of 2nd half winning quarters, the ranking of fittest sides go too...

North Melbourne (66.66%)
Hawthorn (65.2%)
Swans (63%)
Port Adelaide (62.5%)

Based on this the myth that Port Adelaide are the fittest side in the competition is unfounded.

In particular take note of this...

Hawks
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
13 15 16 14
Port
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
13 12 14 16

and this...

By percentage of 2nd half winning quarters, the ranking of fittest sides go too...
North Melbourne (66.66%)
Hawthorn (65.2%)
Swans (63%)
Port Adelaide (62.5%)

I await your response with interest...

Better load up on the Power at 3.55 (or at least the line 20.5) given your level of confidence

 

[BIG MATTY WHITE]

What's everyone's thoughts on our chances more generally?

It's Wednesday, we've had 3 days of build up and the general view is that the game will be incredibly tight, a game where Port could run us ragged.

Often in games like this I check the betting agencies to see where the smart money is going. Often the pundits provide the best indicator of success in matches like this where money talks...or so the theory goes!

Despite Port being the feel good story of the first few days, the odds havent changed much at all. Hawthorn 1.30 / Port Adelaide 3.55 at the TAB with Port Adelaide given a 20.5 margin. In fact we've tightened after opening at 1.34 on Sunday...

This is a bit different to last year where Fremantle closed in from 2.40 to 2.20 as the week progressed. Even still not much movement for Freo despite the wall to wall Fremantle coverage in the lead up.

This in my mind sums up the state of the game, a number of pundits have highlighted areas where Port Adelaide will challenge us but I suspect there is general feeling that a number of ducks must line up for Port Adelaide to roll us. Whilst most neutrals hope we will get rolled (its boring having the same team in the GF for 3 successive years) the default position is a 3 goal Hawks won after a spirited Port Adelaide showing.

Port are the most exciting team I've seen since Brisbane 1999 but this game has a fair bit of North Melbourne v Brisbane '99 PF about it! Like Brisbane 1999 if the ducks line up for Port they'll probably roll us and win the flag!

Anyway just my two cents

we opened at 3.90 today we are 3.00

You guys are 1.40

 

[Hawkk]

we opened at 3.90 today we are 3.00

You guys are 1.40

Who with?

The TAB has the game still 1.30 to 3.55

https://www.tab.com.au/#!/vic/sports/betting/standard/AFL/AFL/Hawthorn-v-Port-Adelaide/Head-To-Head

But I guess given most of the Port Pwr fans on this board are running with the fittest club in the competition myth (when you are 4th for quarters won in the second half) anything is possible.

 

[BIG MATTY WHITE]

Who with?

The TAB has the game still 1.30 to 3.55
http://www.afl.com.au/fixture/match-odds

Ozbet.com.au
https://www.ozbet.com.au/Event.aspx...5?tourName=Preliminary Finals&tourSeq=2391282

 

[Hawkk]

Ozbet.com.au

Awesome. As per my post above.

Fringe betting agencies be fringe betting agencies

I'm tracking where the baulk of the money is going...

 

[BIG MATTY WHITE]

Awesome. As per my post above.

Fringe betting agencies be fringe betting agencies

I'm tracking where the baulk of the money is going...

Isnt ozbet the online website for the TAB

 

[QPower]

Given all that I trust you have put a truck load of money on Port to win?

Port are much more likely to blow this through poor decision-making under pressure than being overrun by Dad's Army.

Do they have a decent chance to win? of course they do.

 

[Hawkk]

Isnt ozbet the online website for the TAB

You'd be wrong. OzBet was bought out by TAB but the odds provided are independent of TAB main website - hence the mainstay odds on the major website provided and on the afl.com.au site.

 

[Hawkk]

Port are much more likely to blow this through poor decision-making under pressure than being overrun by Dad's Army.

Do they have a decent chance to win? of course they do.

I guess there is a reason why Hawthorn has outscored Planet Teal by 25 goals across the season despite playing one less game. Good luck though, its not often Port get to play in front of 70,000 plus at the 'G in a big final (its our 6th such experience this year) so I'm hoping for a cracker with the Hawks getting the chocolates by 3 to 4 goals as per the page back

In fact if I'm not wrong its the first time you've played on such as stage since 119?

 

[badgrill]

Port are much more likely to blow this through poor decision-making under pressure than being overrun by Dad's Army.

Do they have a decent chance to win? of course they do.

Yes, and how does "poor decision making" usually come about?

Pressure, inexperience, fatigue? Combination of all these?

Gotta laugh at all the PP fans assuming that if they lose, Port will be the ones who lose it, not the fact that Hawks might actually have a say in the outcome.

 

[BIG MATTY WHITE]

You'd be wrong. OzBet was bought out by TAB but the odds provided are independent of TAB main website - hence the mainstay odds on the major website provided and on the afl.com.au site.

I see...

I agree with you about following the money....

But this game is different...

So many factors come into play


Whats the weather like in melbourne? Looks like its going to be dry come saturday but melbourne weather always plays tricks

 

[badgrill]

I see...

I agree with you about following the money....

But this game is different...

So many factors come into play


Whats the weather like in melbourne? Looks like its going to be dry come saturday but melbourne weather always plays tricks

A possible shower & 17. Will have no bearing on the result.

 

[Hawkk]

Port are much more likely to blow this through poor decision-making under pressure than being overrun by Dad's Army.

Do they have a decent chance to win? of course they do.

Just on this, not to bring up old games or anything but the last time we played you in round 10 we went across without Lake, Mitchell, Gibson, Roughead and Rioli - all members of what I assume is the time honoured 'Dad's Army' and outscored Port in the second half of the game:

9 goals, 4 behinds to 7 goals, 7 behinds.

We also won a significant amount of the clearances and Inside 50's after half time.

The hallmark of our season thus far has been our depth and ability to cover our 7 30+ year olds. I'm much more confident in our ability to do this than I was in 2012 and that goes regardless of the result on Saturday.

 

[Rushed_Behind]

Any excuses if Port lose?

By the sounds of things we are screwed.

 

[QPower]

I guess there is a reason why Hawthorn has outscored Planet Teal by 25 goals across the season despite playing one less game. Good luck though, its not often Port get to play in front of 70,000 plus at the 'G (its our 6th such experience this year) so I'm hoping for a cracker with the Hawks getting the chocolates by 3 to 4 goals as per the page back

In fact if I'm not wrong its the first time you've played on such as stage since 119?

What about goals against? The game includes both score for and against.

Anyway, point was Hawks tend to be flat track bullies - good with a tailwind, but have not handled the heat such as crafting the kind of win Port had on the road last Saturday.

 

[Hawkk]

Yes, and how does "poor decision making" usually come about?

Pressure, inexperience, fatigue? Combination of all these?

Gotta laugh at all the PP fans assuming that if they lose, Port will be the ones who lose it, not the fact that Hawks might actually have a say in the outcome.

Particularly given that Port headline the league for turnovers.

This is a genuine contest, probably 55/45 in Hawthorn's favour, and there are a number of ways that either side can win

 

[Jaeger]

Media haven't spotted Cyril at training......yet...

 

[Hawkk]

What about goals against? The game includes both score for and against.

Anyway, point was Hawks tend to be flat track bullies - good with a tailwind, but have not handled the heat such as crafting the kind of win Port had on the road last Saturday.

Given that the Hawks and Port against numbers are nigh on identical it is very relevant.

If you think Hawthorn have failed to craft wins and are just glorified flat track bully's I suspect you haven't watched much of Hawthorn over the last 3 years, which is strange considering we've crafted gritty wins in the last 2 PF's alone!

But yeah you're right, we haven't crafted a win like Port on Saturday

In round 19 we went to Adelaide without our CHB and FB and grinded out a 12 point win against the Crows interstate, a team that rolled Port in the Showdown by 4 goals just a fortnight previously. In round 18 we took down the Swans without our FB, despite sitting 4 goals behind halfway through the 3rd quarter. In Round 22 we did the same number on the Cats, coming back from a 25 degree day game in Perth and a 6 day break...

I would suggest that these games in this season alone compare favourably with the job you did on a depleted Fremantle, in a game that you actually underperformed relative to your round 8 and 23 performances.

 

[dcutter]

I must say I was lured (I didn't bet but I anticipated that the home teams would get up like most pundits on the back of previous history). Hindsight is a wonderful thing but the two results shouldn’t have been that surprising:

• North have a reasonable enough record against Geelong (and lost Johnson and McIntosh in the lead up to the game)
• Port Adelaide had a very good record against Fremantle (an 18 point win in round 8 followed by a 7 point loss in round 23 – a game they probably should have won)

Now if you look at the two preceding Port Adelaide v Fremantle and North Melbourne v Geelong home / away games in greater detail….

Port Adelaide v Fremantle

Round 8 – Port won by 18 points (Adelaide Oval)
Port smashed Fremantle for scoring shots (29 to 21)
Port smashed Fremantle for Inside 50’s (54-37)
Port defeated Fremantle for Clearances, just (43-42)

On statistics alone that really should have been a 6 or 7 goal win….

Round 23 – Fremantle won by 7 points (Subiaco)
Port and Fremantle had a similar number of scoring shots (29-27)
Port smashed Fremantle for Inside 50’s (55-41)
Port won the Clearances quite comprehensively (45-37)

On statistics alone Port really should have won that game and finished top 4…if they had done, the premiership betting would look very different (we’d have three teams clear on the first line of betting instead of two and the Sydney V Port Adelaide final at Homebush would have been epic)

The strange thing is Fremantle did a hell of a lot better in the Semi Final (a game they gained Fyfe but was offset by the loss of Johnson and Ballantyne)

Semi Final – Port Adelaide won by 22 points (Subiaco)
Port and Fremantle had near on identical scoring shots (30-28)
The Inside 50’s actually tightened up significantly (54-49)
The Clearances tightened up significantly as well (43-42)

In this instance I think the hosting Semi Final rule (where the host rarely losses) did have an effect on the match (it tightened all the indicators) but Port are just a better team than Fremantle overall.

The same could be said about the North Melbourne v Geelong result…

North Melbourne v Geelong

Round 10 – Geelong won by 10 points (Kardina Park)
Geelong had more scoring shots (31-26)
The Inside 50’s were even (49 apiece)
North won the Clearances quite convincingly (38-25)

Based on statistics, Geelong’s forward line functioned a lot better than North (given the Inside 50 and Clearance count)

Round 18 – Geelong won by 33 points (Ethiad)
The scoring shots tightened, still Geelong way (31-29)
North had more Inside 50’s (54-52)
Geelong lost the Clearance count again (31-32)

Whilst the scoreboard reads as an easy win for North, the figures suggest something else entirely. Between round 18 and the Semi Final Geelong had a number of changes to their best 22 with McIntosh, Johnson, Kirsten and Christenson all out of the Semi Final side, still…

Semi Final – North Melbourne won by 6 points
The scoring shots were again tight; this time they turned North’s way (28-27)
The Inside 50’s were dead even (52-52)
Geelong actually won the Clearance count (39-37)

Despite Geelong’s run of outs, they performed to an equivalent level as they did in round 18 and round 10, North just took their chances…
So what does this mean for the games coming up this weekend…

• Despite Port and North Melbourne both pulling off the ‘bookies upset’ the results really weren’t that surprising with the benefit of hindsight
• The clubs that host finals have a distinct advantage in finals, its just a matter of the teams taking their chances
• Port and Geelong have played successive knockout finals in the time since Hawthorn and Sydney’s Qualifying Final victories. What this means on Friday and Saturday Afternoon I’m not sure but between the QF and PF Hawthorn and Sydney haven’t played a game for 15 and 13 days each. Port Adelaide and North Melbourne would have played 2 cut throat knockout finals in 13 days each…

Evidently the last time Hawthorn / Port Adelaide and Sydney / North Melbourne played….

Round 4 – North Melbourne won by 43 points at the SCG
North Melbourne had significantly more scoring shots (26-18)
Sydney smashed North in the Inside 50’s (66-48)
The Clearances were very tight (North have a track record of excelling in clearances) (46-45)

Between round 4 and the SF, Sydney had a number of changes to their list (namely Goodes and Tippet). The reason I mention this is that Sydney recorded easily the lowest Inside 50 – to – goal conversion rate in the league (11 entries per goal). In short, their forward line structure was a joke.

If they post more than 60 Inside 50’s on Saturday, the Swans average 2 entries per score and 4 entries per goal. If they kick 15 goals, North won’t be able to peg back the score (given the Swans are top 2 for defence)

With respect to Port Adelaide and Hawthorn we’ve spoken at length about our run of outs (and I won’t go over it again) but the key stats…

Round 10 – Port Adelaide won by 14 points at the Adelaide Oval
Port Adelaide had more scoring shots (25-21)
Hawthorn won the Inside 50 count (55-47)
Hawthorn won the Clearances (45-41)
A couple of things stick out with this…

• Hawthorn and Port Adelaide are 2 and 3 for scoring shots (so both of us will end up with 30 or scoring shots)
• Port Adelaide and Hawthorn are 1 and 3 for Inside 50’s. Hawthorn have a much more efficient forward line (both in terms of efficiency with entries and accuracy with scoring shots)
• Hawthorn and Port Adelaide are #1 and #4 for Clearances (although Fremantle are #3 and Port belted them in 2 of 3 games).

So how do I think the game will go?

Port Adelaide and Hawthorn will have close to the same amount of shots on goal (probably 28-30 each), Port Adelaide will win the Inside 50 count just and Hawthorn will win the Clearances just. The weeks break will have an impact as the game progresses (note that the hosting rights favoured Fremantle and Geelong in the Semi Finals) and Hawthorn will skip away to a 3 or 4 goal win after holding a 2 goal lead going into the last quarter.

Anyway just my two cents worth…time to get back to work!

Wow, some solid research done there. I think its also worth noting the personnel difference from the round 10 encounter:
We were missing: roughead, rioli, gibson, lake and mitchell. Top shelf players. With this in mind I believe our forward and back lines can be more productive, I also think we have an edge in the ruck with our two slowly taking down lobbe who has to do it all game. The inclusion of roughead into the mix here is significant. Such a versatile player and bloody hard to counteract in an already potent fwd line, I'm also not overly convinced with their back line. If there was a place on the ground to be worried its in the midfield. Break even here and we win.
Its Thursday, I can't wait any longer. Bring on Saturday

 

[Jaeger]

Herald sun now saying Cyril was the last man on the track..He's out there!!