Preview QF1 Geelong v Collingwood Sat Sept 3 2022, 435pm @ MCG

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You are right, it's bad data. We are a materially better team since then and would not have let them get out to that lead in the first place of we were running out at present conditions
Correct. Had we played the Pies in the latter part of the season, we would have a match-winning lead and they would have overcome that to the tune Winner Takes It All from the movie Over the Top.
 
I love the Collingwood delusion that they're the only ones who have changed...

Have they forgotten how mediocre we looked in the first 10 weeks? Pretty much up until the Tigers game it was scintillating football followed by rubbish, and that's okay, it comes with tweaking a new gameplan and I'm more than glad we did so.

The notion however that they're significantly better and we're exactly the same is moronic...but you've got to cope somehow I guess.
 
I love the Collingwood delusion that they're the only ones who have changed...

Have they forgotten how mediocre we looked in the first 10 weeks? Pretty much up until the Tigers game it was scintillating football followed by rubbish, and that's okay, it comes with tweaking a new gameplan and I'm more than glad we did so.

The notion however that they're significantly better and we're exactly the same is moronic...but you've got to cope somehow I guess.
Not only are we much much much better.

We have had longer to grasp, train, and become fully confident with the obvious new game plan.

+ the big one... Our squad is better rested/less beat up than any team.

We are primed and on another level... The Pies (whilst playing with heart) are in big trouble.
 

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They were the three really lucky escapes where opposition handed it to them in the last quarter. I don't doubt that on their day they can lift - I expect a strong showing. But their regular season form has been patchy for a top 4 side.
I'd put my life savings (which ain't much) on the Pies having the lowest % of any top 4 side in AFL history.

300 more total points for us.
300 less total points against for us.

Pies are in strife.
 
I'd put my life savings (which ain't much) on the Pies having the lowest % of any top 4 side in AFL history.

300 more total points for us.
300 less total points against for us.

Pies are in strife.

Apparently 3rd lowest in history of top 4 teams. I'd stay away from gambling if I was you.
 
Am filled with trepidation based on Geelong's history with finals week 1. What is it, 2015 we have to go back to when we last one first week?

Over the past couple of months I've certainly felt a different feeling about our fortunes but I don't think these jitters will disappear until the final siren. As we know with the Pies of late, even if we're up by 5 goals at 3QT we are not across the line.

I also had the same nerves the last final we played against Collingwood too, though...
 
Am filled with trepidation based on Geelong's history with finals week 1. What is it, 2015 we have to go back to when we last one first week?

Over the past couple of months I've certainly felt a different feeling about our fortunes but I don't think these jitters will disappear until the final siren. As we know with the Pies of late, even if we're up by 5 goals at 3QT we are not across the line.

I also had the same nerves the last final we played against Collingwood too, though...
I'm also wary of the pies.

We're a better team than them this year. But we come up against them in a match that, like you say, we typically struggle to hit top form in if history is a guide.

The strategy of resting key players in the latter rounds only confirms for me that we're playing a longer game. So I'm not expecting us to suddenly come out all guns blazing in this match.

I still think we'll win, but let's not treat a loss as doom and gloom either. It's very likely we make the prelim by whichever route. The question is really whether we come up against Melbourne sooner or later and which would we prefer.
 
I'm also wary of the pies.

We're a better team than them this year. But we come up against them in a match that, like you say, we typically struggle to hit top form in if history is a guide.

The strategy of resting key players in the latter rounds only confirms for me that we're playing a longer game. So I'm not expecting us to suddenly come out all guns blazing in this match.

I still think we'll win, but let's not treat a loss as doom and gloom either. It's very likely we make the prelim by whichever route. The question is really whether we come up against Melbourne sooner or later and which would we prefer.

It's that fear of seeing a QT score line of 5.1 to 0.2 in favour of the Pies that gets me... Then we'll win the next 3 quarters but fall short of the final score.
 
I define a fluke win as when you win and any of the following factors play a significant role:
  • you get an unexpected performance out of your player(s); Or
  • the opposition plays badly and essentially “gifts” you a win

An example of the first category would be the 2018 prelim when mason cox basically had the best game of his life and won the game for Collingwood.

Look at collingwood’s wins this year and I would argue that in the following wins mistakes from the opposition played a huge part in them winning:
Rd 23 vs carlton (atrocious conversion by Carlton and a shambolic last 2 minutes)
Rd 21 vs melbourne (terrible conversion, they should have been out of sight in the first half)
Rd 19 vs the Essendon (some of the worst game management in the last qtr that I have ever seen)
Rd 17 vs north (a really bad team that didn’t know how to win when it was dominating the game)

And that list doesn’t include single figure wins against s**t sides Adelaide, hawthorn, carlton again, port Adelaide, Gold Coast.

Plus they beat Essendon earlier in the season by 11 points when Essendon had 4 more scoring shots.

And let’s not forget they were beaten by west coast in Melbourne when the eagles were a shambles.

They were flogged by the bulldogs and richmond.

By my count they have had 2 quality wins all season:
Rd 10 beat the Dockers by 36 in perth
Rd 15 beat Melbourne by 26

That is it. 2 decent wins.

I think it is fair to say that there is a large element of fluke about Collingwood 2022.

Rent free.
 

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I love the Collingwood delusion that they're the only ones who have changed...

Have they forgotten how mediocre we looked in the first 10 weeks? Pretty much up until the Tigers game it was scintillating football followed by rubbish, and that's okay, it comes with tweaking a new gameplan and I'm more than glad we did so.

The notion however that they're significantly better and we're exactly the same is moronic...but you've got to cope somehow I guess.
Second half of season Geelong beats 1st half of season Geelong by 10 goals.
 
I love the Collingwood delusion that they're the only ones who have changed...

Have they forgotten how mediocre we looked in the first 10 weeks? Pretty much up until the Tigers game it was scintillating football followed by rubbish, and that's okay, it comes with tweaking a new gameplan and I'm more than glad we did so.

The notion however that they're significantly better and we're exactly the same is moronic...but you've got to cope somehow I guess.

They are significantly improved too, in the first half of the season they were soundly beaten by Bulldogs and Richmond and if the Pies were playing either of those teams next week I'd expect Collingwood to win.

My biggest worry about next week is that Collingwood can score really quickly when they have momentum - we saw that first hand in round 3 and it was only an incredible performance by Jez (and super sub Dahlhaus!) that got us over the line. We have also seen it in countless final quarters like last week when Carlton appeared home with 15 mins to play.

We've been so good this year but I still feel like we can be scored against quickly. Only a month or so the Dogs were 4.2 to 0.0 against us. Richmond erased a 5-6 goal lead fairly quickly. The first time we played the Dogs, we had a 40+ lead and they got within a goal in the last quarter. Port Adelaide kicked 8 goals to one in the third quarter to turn a 5 goal HT deficit into a 3/4 time lead

In each of these games we've been good enough to steady, wrestle back momentum and win - which is great! I have no doubt that in previous seasons we would have let a number of those matches slip.

But it still makes me really nervous that it will happen again over the next month.
 
My big fear about this game is playing underdone or injured players, id hate for us to bring Jezza in and then for him to ping a hammy and us lose, having to backup the week later, our systems are good but a lot of our systems revolve around him.
 
Wonder what the split is of Geelong fans and the toothless unwashed?


Still triggered by the pre-match chat Scott had on TV where they said it wasn't going to rain and Scott goes "we are still pretty tall" and then we end up with Grundy smashing Esava and Blicavs.

Hopefully they have learned from that, the Chappy vest, etc, and pick the best team we have available because we are the best team in the league and we should act accordingly.
I'm still triggered by people pretending Grundy was dominant when neither coach had him in the votes and that selection is the reason we lost.

Scott's (very questionable) decision is blamed when the truth is we just played like utter shit.
 
I'm still triggered by people pretending Grundy was dominant when neither coach had him in the votes and that selection is the reason we lost.

Scott's (very questionable) decision is blamed when the truth is we just played like utter s**t.
This is objectively true. My critique of the selection has always been that it revealed weakness, mainly mentally, and showed the opposition we didn’t believe in ourselves.
 
This is objectively true. My critique of the selection has always been that it revealed weakness, mainly mentally, and showed the opposition we didn’t believe in ourselves.
Stanley missed a bunch of games in the lead up to finals that year and only returned in round 23. I can't remember if that was injury or he was dropped but we played a couple of games while he was out with Zac Smith and a couple with Blicavs and Ratugolea as rucks.

The ones with Blics and Sav were round 21 and 22 against North with Goldstein and Brisbane with Martin and McInerney. So we were playing that ruck combo 2 of the last 3 games of the year against other good ruck combos. We killed North (they kicked one goal) in their only loss for the last 4 matches. And we should've beaten Brisbane away in a top of the table clash except for choking in the last 10 minutes. Given our poor form late in the year they were 2 of our best performances.

I think making a big deal out of the change is pretty absurd. It clearly didn't have a major impact in itself since Grundy didn't have a huge game and we won the clearances and contested possessions. And we were just going back to the ruck combo we used for 2 games recently that had worked fine.
 
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