Preview QF1 Geelong v Collingwood Sat Sept 3 2022, 435pm @ MCG

[moond0g]

Am filled with trepidation based on Geelong's history with finals week 1. What is it, 2015 we have to go back to when we last one first week?

Over the past couple of months I've certainly felt a different feeling about our fortunes but I don't think these jitters will disappear until the final siren. As we know with the Pies of late, even if we're up by 5 goals at 3QT we are not across the line.

I also had the same nerves the last final we played against Collingwood too, though...

I think everyone here feels that to a certain degree. We've performed poorly in finals recently, no doubt. Until we come out and look like we are ready to play in the first quarter of a QF, I think everyone will have some reservations about how far we'll go in the finals.

But I also think there are a few differences this year.
1. We seem to have modified our game plan. whether this makes us more competitive remains to be seen, but at the least it's some recognition we needed to change things, which is something that hasn't happened inn previous years. We've also rested players with an eye for the finals, again a focus on how to maximise our chances in finals rather than H&A.

2. Collingwood are good, you don't win 11 on the trot unless you're a good side. But a lot of those were close victories. You can look at that ability to consistently win close games as a skill. But I view that more as luck. Historically, those close games essentially are a coin flip, and it's definitely possible to get 8 or 9 tails in a row, that's how random distributions work. So it means that Collingwood are a good side, but they've overperformed relative to how good they actually are this year.

When you combine those two things it looks means that our team is in as good a shape as we've been for a long time leading into first week of finals AND our opponent has got lucky to win a few games and are therefore relatively weaker than most teams that finish top 4.

So realistically we should win somewhat comfortably.

 

[Footy Smarts]

The most overrated impact in the 2019 QF was that selection. The most underrated was our injuries and the madness that happened just before the opening bounce.

Nobody remembers that Bews was injured right at the end of the warm-up and we tried to bring Stanley in at the just minute. We were told it was too late and Bews hobbling had to start on the ground. Then Rohan was injured early badly enough that he didn't play even the prelim final with no Hawkins. And Duncan was injured in the 2nd quarter and took no further part. So we had no Duncan and Bews and Rohan hobbling around out there. Imagine if we had Stanley rather than Menegola out there we would've been run off our feet.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

Collingwood's last 30 seconds to beat Essendon (end to end play with Elliott kicking the winner after the siren) was awesome, but they had a couple of strokes of luck to be in that position. Harry Jones had a shot from 35m out straight in front to seal the game and hit the post seconds earlier, and he should have been awarded a 50m penalty after a Pies player kicked the ball away after the free kick was paid.

Is that the only example of a fluke? It was also very good football to get themselves back into a winning position from that far down and to then edge in front after the siren.

The problem I have with this idea of dismissing collingwood because their margins of wins is small is not looking at things properly.

They play a very potent high intensity game style that is really on for periods of a game then fades off through fatigue. It is not sustainable for an entire game which is quite obvious from the score lines and the frequent deficits they come back from, but if they hold within reach and have something in the tank they can come at you like a steam train and have done it on many occasions.

We cannot take them lightly, their best patches of footy during games is very lethal and hard to stop. Defensively we need to be very switched on

 

[fpm84]

Is that the only example of a fluke? It was also very good football to get themselves back into a winning position from that far down and to then edge in front after the siren.

The problem I have with this idea of dismissing collingwood because their margins of wins is small is not looking at things properly.

They play a very potent high intensity game style that is really on for periods of a game then fades off through fatigue. It is not sustainable for an entire game which is quite obvious from the score lines and the frequent deficits they come back from, but if they hold within reach and have something in the tank they can come at you like a steam train and have done it on many occasions.

We cannot take them lightly, their best patches of footy during games is very lethal and hard to stop. Defensively we need to be very switched on

I don't consider it a fluke but it's undeniable that they had some very good fortune that allowed them to be in a winning position, most notably Jones missing a shot to seal the game that you would expect an AFL forward to kick 9 times out of 10. That doesn't take away from the skill and composure Collingwood showed in the last 30 seconds to win the game.

Agree with the rest of your post - I rate Pies highly and basically consider the QF a 50/50 game.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Is that the only example of a fluke? It was also very good football to get themselves back into a winning position from that far down and to then edge in front after the siren.

The problem I have with this idea of dismissing collingwood because their margins of wins is small is not looking at things properly.

They play a very potent high intensity game style that is really on for periods of a game then fades off through fatigue. It is not sustainable for an entire game which is quite obvious from the score lines and the frequent deficits they come back from, but if they hold within reach and have something in the tank they can come at you like a steam train and have done it on many occasions.

We cannot take them lightly, their best patches of footy during games is very lethal and hard to stop. Defensively we need to be very switched on

Collingwood are a good team. People also don't mention that a few of their close games like against Port really should've been much bigger margins. It's fair to think they were lucky to win so many close games but also if they'd lost say 2 more they would've finished top 8 easily.

I don't think the team we play matters much. I still think Melbourne at their best are the most dangerous and if Martin, Bolton and Lynch had good games against us Richmond are a real threat. But we need to beat whoever we play. I don't think Collingwood are the best opponent out there but I don't think there's much difference between them, Brisbane, Freo and Sydney. They're a good team that needs to be respected and we need to play well to win.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

Collingwood are a good team. People also don't mention that a few of their close games like against Port really should've been much bigger margins. It's fair to think they were lucky to win so many close games but also if they'd lost say 2 more they would've finished top 8 easily.

I don't think the team we play matters much. I still think Melbourne at their best are the most dangerous and if Martin, Bolton and Lynch had good games against us Richmond are a real threat. But we need to beat whoever we play. I don't think Collingwood are the best opponent out there but I don't think there's much difference between them, Brisbane, Freo and Sydney. They're a good team that needs to be respected and we need to play well to win.

Exactly. I just hope the club is having none of those nonsense dismissive talk because their wins are not big enough margins.. it is not the sort of style they play to win games by big margins, but what they do seems to trouble most teams

 

[geelong_crazy26]

I don't consider it a fluke but it's undeniable that they had some very good fortune that allowed them to be in a winning position, most notably Jones missing a shot to seal the game that you would expect an AFL forward to kick 9 times out of 10. That doesn't take away from the skill and composure Collingwood showed in the last 30 seconds to win the game.

Agree with the rest of your post - I rate Pies highly and basically consider the QF a 50/50 game.

I am not in a popular opinion bracket with this which is fine, but I do rate them very highly. I think they are better than Melbourne this year and I will back them to beat Melbourne in a final if they meet.

They are my biggest worry, if we win this one I think we go all the way.

Our game against collingwood will be by far the most intense and brutal of all the games first week, bookmark that in.

I think Melbourne and Sydney will be a bit more of a methodical match with both feeling each other out early on, but our game will be on like donkey Kong from the start.

 

[fpm84]

I am not in a popular opinion bracket with this which is fine, but I do rate them very highly. I think they are better than Melbourne this year and I will back them to beat Melbourne in a final if they meet.

They are my biggest worry, if we win this one I think we go all the way.

Our game against collingwood will be by far the most intense and brutal of all the games first week, bookmark that in

Beating them would be a significant step forward because it would show we can handle the pressure of playing in front of 90k supporters and a pro-opposition crowd. I genuinely think we've been spooked by the vocal crowds in previous finals v Collingwood and Richmond, so to overcome that would be huge validation for how far we've come.

 

[Munich]

Beating them would be a significant step forward because it would show we can handle the pressure of playing in front of 90k supporters and a pro-opposition crowd. I genuinely think we've been spooked by the vocal crowds in previous finals v Collingwood and Richmond, so to overcome that would be huge validation for how far we've come.

This crowd is going to be a lot closer to even than in the past.

But it shouldn't matter. If the side is good enough they'll win easily. Simples.

 

[bulletproof]

Beating them would be a significant step forward because it would show we can handle the pressure of playing in front of 90k supporters and a pro-opposition crowd. I genuinely think we've been spooked by the vocal crowds in previous finals v Collingwood and Richmond, so to overcome that would be huge validation for how far we've come.

I don’t think it is the crowd that has spooked them, it is the significant increase in tempo of the game. The crowd feeds into that, but it is the huge change from our low tempo possession game to frantic finals football that has been the problem.

Last year in particular we also had a backline in disarray, which meant we conceded a ridiculous number of cheap goals.

Even though this year we have played a much higher tempo game, I still don’t think we love a team really piling on the pressure, but we are better at managing these parts of the game, and then getting back control.

I also don’t think a 4 goal deficit will scare this team too much. They know they can slam goals on when it is going our way. So hopefully less inclined to panic if Collingwood start well.

 

[Finknottle]

This year we have a long list of healthy players to choose from and can cover for injuries should they occur. Having Stanley and Ceglar available is important. We know we can bring in players who will not compromise the team. We haven't been able to say that for several years.

 

[catempire]

Stanley missed a bunch of games in the lead up to finals that year and only returned in round 23. I can't remember if that was injury or he was dropped but we played a couple of games while he was out with Zac Smith and a couple with Blicavs and Ratugolea as rucks.

The ones with Blics and Sav were round 21 and 22 against North with Goldstein and Brisbane with Martin and McInerney. So we were playing that ruck combo 2 of the last 3 games of the year against other good ruck combos. We killed North (they kicked one goal) in their only loss for the last 4 matches. And we should've beaten Brisbane away in a top of the table clash except for choking in the last 10 minutes. Given our poor form late in the year they were 2 of our best performances.

I think making a big deal out of the change is pretty absurd. It clearly didn't have a major impact in itself since Grundy didn't have a huge game and we won the clearances and contested possessions. And we were just going back to the ruck combo we used for 2 games recently that had worked fine.

No I don’t agree with that. Stanley was still our best option going into the game. The only reason they changed at the last minute was the weather. Scott admitted that.

What I’m saying is that the change might not have mattered in an output sense - Stanley’s form was patchy that year - but it definitely (IMO) showed we weren’t backing ourselves to win with our best combo and we were trying to pull something novel to get the win. I don’t doubt the opposition saw it as a scared move and we played the first quarter like a scared team.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Interesting that of all the games ours is the only one that has a unanimous prediction from all the models. I'd take more comfort if squiggle hadn't also predicted the Lions to win

 

[catempire]

Interesting that of all the games ours is the only one that has a unanimous prediction from all the models. I'd take more comfort if squiggle hadn't also predicted the Lions to win

View attachment 1490784

I don’t trust Brisbane as far as I can throw Dayne Zorko. But they have had a strong H&A record for a few years. I can see why the models are tipping them.

 

[Romeoh1]

Can’t wait for this game- gee the week off is annoying!

 

[Romeoh1]

I don’t trust Brisbane as far as I can throw Dayne Zorko. But they have had a strong H&A record for a few years. I can see why the models are tipping them.

Think they have a pretty poor record against Richmond wherever they play.

 

[catempire]

Think they have a pretty poor record against Richmond wherever they play.

I doubt the models factor that in.

 

[Mr Meow]

Exactly. I just hope the club is having none of those nonsense dismissive talk because their wins are not big enough margins.. it is not the sort of style they play to win games by big margins, but what they do seems to trouble most teams

For the thousandth time, how supporters speculate and how a club prepares for an opponent are two completely different things. Geelong will prepare for Collingwood playing the best version of their football (even an elevated version) for 120 minutes. That's not an issue. Outsiders putting in their 2c is something else entirely.

 

[Romeoh1]

Exactly. I just hope the club is having none of those nonsense dismissive talk because their wins are not big enough margins.. it is not the sort of style they play to win games by big margins, but what they do seems to trouble most teams

If we are that stupid, then we probably deserve to lose.
Has Catscollectors invaded your being or something?

 

[Mr Meow]

The most overrated impact in the 2019 QF was that selection. The most underrated was our injuries and the madness that happened just before the opening bounce.

Nobody remembers that Bews was injured right at the end of the warm-up and we tried to bring Stanley in at the just minute. We were told it was too late and Bews hobbling had to start on the ground. Then Rohan was injured early badly enough that he didn't play even the prelim final with no Hawkins. And Duncan was injured in the 2nd quarter and took no further part. So we had no Duncan and Bews and Rohan hobbling around out there. Imagine if we had Stanley rather than Menegola out there we would've been run off our feet.

I'd forgotten a couple of those details (I of course remember Duncan being a huge miss in the 2019 prelim along with Hawkins. We'd have killed them dead by halftime with those 2 converting dominance to scores).

2019 it all unravelled a bit, it stung because our fit and firing best 22 probably was a premiership outfit. We weren't mentally strong enough or deep enough quality wise to withstand the circumstances that popped up.

You do need luck. I'd pay a pretty penny to go injury and suspension free (relative to 2019-2021) through this finals series.

 

[D BRIDGE]

The Pies have played with heart this season.... but

# They probably should have been smoked by North, Dons & Carlton recently.
# Finished with a very average 104% to our 144%
# Finished 17th last season.

We are gonna handle them no stress.

 

[BotsMaster]

Interesting that of all the games ours is the only one that has a unanimous prediction from all the models. I'd take more comfort if squiggle hadn't also predicted the Lions to win

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Yeah Brisbane are not winning that contest full stop.

 

[GeelongFTW]

This is somewhat heresy but we should be hoping for a tigers win. A Brisbane Bradbury would just an easy semi final for the QF loser

 

[manicpie]

The Pies have played with heart this season.... but

# They probably should have been smoked by North, Dons & Carlton recently.
# Finished with a very average 104% to our 144%
# Finished 17th last season.

We are gonna handle them no stress.

We'll see

 

[And_ROOS]

I don’t trust Brisbane as far as I can throw Dayne Zorko. But they have had a strong H&A record for a few years. I can see why the models are tipping them.

Models tipping them but Brisbane absolutely fail the pub test and most punters I know are putting money on the Tiggies.

Brisbane are the worst finals team in it. I had them tipped for a straight sets exit and they bottled that.