Preview QF1 Geelong v Collingwood Sat Sept 3 2022, 435pm @ MCG

[Heckler]

I'd put my life savings (which ain't much) on the Pies having the lowest % of any top 4 side in AFL history.

300 more total points for us.
300 less total points against for us.

Pies are in strife.

Simple math based on total score... For and Against..Cats v Pies
Average over 22 games is ...Cats +25.7 points
Which is about the correct winning margin I expect

 

[Sydney Malakellis]

I'd put my life savings (which ain't much) on the Pies having the lowest % of any top 4 side in AFL history.

300 more total points for us.
300 less total points against for us.

Pies are in strife.

How good would winning by 600 be??!!

 

[geelong_crazy26]

If we are that stupid, then we probably deserve to lose.
Has Catscollectors invaded your being or something?

I just rate collingwood as opposed to a lot of others and think this will be our hardest game. I think we go on to the grand final if we win this one. If we run into Melbourne oddly I feel a lot more reassured and confident we will beat them. This is just me tho

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

Interesting that of all the games ours is the only one that has a unanimous prediction from all the models. I'd take more comfort if squiggle hadn't also predicted the Lions to win

View attachment 1490784

Why? I think the Lions will win.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

Why? I think the Lions will win.

I am on board, think lions win by 4+ goals

 

[Stokey]

I am on board, think lions win by 4+ goals

I want Lions to win but Rayner is too big of an out. Only way is if they bring in Robinson in to beat the crap out the Tiggers in what could be his last game.

 

[Mr Meow]

Why? I think the Lions will win.

They've had a near stumble (Saints) and a shocker (Demons) but I could see that actually getting a strong response next weekend. Tigers won't bring what Demons did and their soft kills (including Lions rolling over at the G) have people overrating them. Lions will have that game on their minds too and only beat Richmond at the same ground in a final 2 years ago.

It's close to 50/50 but a Lions win wouldn't surprise me at all.

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

They've had a near stumble (Saints) and a shocker (Demons) but I could see that actually getting a strong response next weekend. Tigers won't bring what Demons did and their soft kills (including Lions rolling over at the G) have people overrating them. Lions will have that game on their minds too and only beat Richmond at the same ground in a final 2 years ago.

It's close to 50/50 but a Lions win wouldn't surprise me at all.

I'm on record as saying the Lions are the most overrated side I've seen but I just don't rate Richmond either.

What are the Lions ... 1-6 in recent finals. I think they're due.

 

[Mr Meow]

I'm on record as saying the Lions are the most overrated side I've seen but I just don't rate Richmond either.

What are the Lions ... 1-6 in recent finals. I think they're due.

Agreed. I could see this game being their Scott's Geelong semi final-eque performance - surprise the critics, then come up short the following week. Sydney or Melbourne will account for either winner comfortably.

 

[catempire]

Models tipping them but Brisbane absolutely fail the pub test and most punters I know are putting money on the Tiggies.

Brisbane are the worst finals team in it. I had them tipped for a straight sets exit and they bottled that.

They are a hard team to get a read on. Except for the Dees game last week they are mostly very competitive and have big parts of games where they dominate. They just leak too many goals when the other team starts winning the ball.

 

[catempire]

I'm on record as saying the Lions are the most overrated side I've seen but I just don't rate Richmond either.

What are the Lions ... 1-6 in recent finals. I think they're due.

Yeah, weirdly I think Lions are the value here.

checks odds

$2.04 vs $1.81

Hmmm… probably about right.

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

Yeah, weirdly I think Lions are the value here.

checks odds

$2.04 vs $1.81

Hmmm… probably about right.

I reckon they might drift a little yet.

 

[Vdubs]

Can’t wait for this game- gee the week off is annoying!

I love it- a week without stress and time for our Camerons to get closer for selection.
Could we win it without either CGuth or Jeremy?
If both did not get up, I would say no.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

If we are that stupid, then we probably deserve to lose.
Has Catscollectors invaded your being or something?

Speaking of which, is he/she Alive still??

 

[Mr Meow]

I love it- a week without stress and time for our Camerons to get closer for selection.
Could we win it without either CGuth or Jeremy?
If both did not get up, I would say no.

I've noticed a lot of your hypotheticals have a negative slant. There are a lot of "what ifs" that lead to glory too.

By all reports we have been able to manage/rest players as well as any season since 2011. Being able to take the conservative approach with Stanley, Cameron, Danger, Duncan, Selwood and Guthrie at various stages this year is not a luxury I've often felt we've had. We were able to treat last weekend as an extra bye - this is not to be confused with a worrisome injury list.

To answer your question, yes we could win it without either of them. There will be 20 other very important players and our emergency list is strong for a change. Henry, Stanley, Danger can be deployed forward. Rohan and Stengle are dangerous, Miers and Close are in outstanding form. Nobody replaces Guthrie's skill set, but it is still our deepest midfield group in a long time.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Why? I think the Lions will win.

The good Lions would. They've lost the plot

 

[Footy_Fan2007]

Why? I think the Lions will win.

I think they will now too.
Start of the week I gave them no chance.

 

[Vdubs]

I'm on record as saying the Lions are the most overrated side I've seen but I just don't rate Richmond either.

What are the Lions ... 1-6 in recent finals. I think they're due.

Tigers do not have our depth, but they have huge performers in big games.
Dusty.
Cotchin, even now.
Baker.
Vlastuin
Lynch
Riewoldt
Bolton
Prestia
McIntosh
Nankervis.
They have pretty good track records these Tigers, and I can't see Lions beating them.

I've noticed a lot of your hypotheticals have a negative slant. There are a lot of "what ifs" that lead to glory too.

By all reports we have been able to manage/rest players as well as any season since 2011. Being able to take the conservative approach with Stanley, Cameron, Danger, Duncan, Selwood and Guthrie at various stages this year is not a luxury I've often felt we've had. We were able to treat last weekend as an extra bye - this is not to be confused with a worrisome injury list.

To answer your question, yes we could win it without either of them. There will be 20 other very important players and our emergency list is strong for a change. Henry, Stanley, Danger can be deployed forward. Rohan and Stengle are dangerous, Miers and Close are in outstanding form. Nobody replaces Guthrie's skill set, but it is still our deepest midfield group in a long time.

Agree, but the hypothetical of both being out?
Not totally impossible, and we need to consider there are more finals to be played.
And as said, I like to consider all possibilities.
Most posters here will saturate the positives.

 

[Romeoh1]

I just rate collingwood as opposed to a lot of others and think this will be our hardest game. I think we go on to the grand final if we win this one. If we run into Melbourne oddly I feel a lot more reassured and confident we will beat them. This is just me tho

I think it‘ll be a great contest and won’t be easy to win, but I’m pretty confident we are better than them and will get the job done. We are a much better team now, than when met them in Round 3. We are a better team now, than we were 6 weeks ago. I’d still be nervous facing the dees I must say, but hope you are correct. Anyway we will find out soon enough.

 

[Romeoh1]

I love it- a week without stress and time for our Camerons to get closer for selection.
Could we win it without either CGuth or Jeremy?
If both did not get up, I would say no.

Yes of course- there is that and I do quite like everyone being able to get their best team on the park. But part of me also accepts that a season has an attrition rate, and if your attrition is this week, so be it. Let’s see how a team goes without blah or blah…
Be very pleased to have the, both in of course, and happy for them.

 

[Romeoh1]

Speaking of which, is he/she Alive still??

Yep- posting on the main board.

 

[catstragic]

Models tipping them but Brisbane absolutely fail the pub test and most punters I know are putting money on the Tiggies.

Brisbane are the worst finals team in it. I had them tipped for a straight sets exit and they bottled that.

Yeah, tough to have much faith in the Lions. Just haven't seemed to find any improvement relative to the top of the competition over the last few years, and don't really have enough strong bodies to force a game in their direction.

 

[Nickoo]

Love your posts, but disagree.
Pies have made last quarter wins an art-form, and having watched all their wins, almost come to expect that last quarter blitz.
The Demons game was scary- they kept in touch all night, despite Demons seeming to dominate, then, BANG.
And they have done it so repetitively, it is simply not a fluke.

Have just watched the last qtrs of:
Coll
Rich
Melb

Each of those were finger tip wins but in each you see how the Cats do it. And it’s bullocking your way often with repeat stoppages until it goes your way. I don’t think Coll close wins are flukes and neither do I Geelong’s. Personally, if Cats don’t shit he bed as they have so often have before then we’ll thrash Coll. Syd should have won by more. It will come down to how accurate we are.


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[Nickoo]

Did anyone else hear him say it was "only a small one" when asked about his hammy.

Only a small what, a tear?

If that’s the case then he’ll make it with 21 days to heal.


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[Mr Meow]

Agree, but the hypothetical of both being out?
Not totally impossible, and we need to consider there are more finals to be played.
And as said, I like to consider all possibilities.
Most posters here will saturate the positives.

Well that's the great unknown, but both by all accounts were given the extra conservative approach and will be fine for next weekend.

Speaking more generally, it's hard to say. Some sides have won flags with a couple of big omissions, but Geelong in the Scott era have struggled when this has happened. Parfitt and Ablett incurring injuries during finals matches, Danger or Selwood heading in to knockout matches at 50%, Hawkins or Duncan missing.

Remember having to start an injured Henderson forward in the 2016 prelim, and an older/slower Henderson forward (in lieu of Hawkins) in the 2019 prelim? Having to sit an injured Danger forward in the second half of that prelim after a dominant first half? Ablett with his injured wing and Parfitt a broken hand in the 2020 grand final? It's difficult to overcome that adversity.

Circumstances like above are difficult to contend with but our forward and mid groups are better equipped to do so than at any other point in Scott's reign.