Preview QF1 Geelong v Collingwood Sat Sept 3 2022, 435pm @ MCG

[JohnZ]

They've had a near stumble (Saints) and a shocker (Demons) but I could see that actually getting a strong response next weekend. Tigers won't bring what Demons did and their soft kills (including Lions rolling over at the G) have people overrating them. Lions will have that game on their minds too and only beat Richmond at the same ground in a final 2 years ago.

It's close to 50/50 but a Lions win wouldn't surprise me at all.

The Dees absolutely rolled Brisbane twice this year, and haven't come close to replicating it against any other top 8 team. Not worried about them, they just match up really well.

As for Richmond, well Brisbane had the wood on them until Richmond came rolling back in.....

 

[Badtemperedbadger]

Not one to beat the chest or get carried away, prefer to look at the numbers.
Plenty being thrown around, so i will condense what i think are the key indicators for this game.

Geelong have outscored Collingwood by 307 points for the year
Geelong had has had 275 less points kicked against them all year
Collingwood have scored 100 or more points on3 occasions this year, Geelong have done it 8 times.
Collingwood's top 5 goalkickers total 132 goals, Geelong total 197 goals.

We are defensively better, better attacking team and i genuinely believe a much better balanced team across all lines. I think Collingwood rely pretty heavily on the likes of, Elliot, Sidebottom, Pendles, Daicos (both) Crisp, Adams (may not play) and maybe Degoey.

While we want to great outputs from JC and Hawk, we still have Stengle, Miers, Close, and Rohan (possibly?)
our midfield has i believe more depth and defensively we're much stronger.
Collingwood's big strength is slingshotting it out quickly from defence and getting behind opposition defences. We cover this by not getting sucked into the contest, relying on our players at the coalface to win possession (Collingwood don't have a great contested game). Same goes for stoppages, Collingwood get going on the outside of the initial contest, its the second and third possession from stoppage we need to cover.

Lastly any team that needs to play Cox in their best 22, can't be that good

Do we win, hopefully, nothing is a given in this game. We play anywhere near our potential and absolutely

 

[geelong_crazy26]

I think it‘ll be a great contest and won’t be easy to win, but I’m pretty confident we are better than them and will get the job done. We are a much better team now, than when met them in Round 3. We are a better team now, than we were 6 weeks ago. I’d still be nervous facing the dees I must say, but hope you are correct. Anyway we will find out soon enough.

i am backing us in all the way to knock over melbourne 100%, i think we have developed a game plan specifically to beat melbourne as well. That game at skilled we should have won comfortably by about 8-10 goals. We controlled it from start to finish.

melbournes 50% win record since round 10 is not overly flattering either.

all we need to do against melbourne is break even in the midfield and we win. They do not have the forward line capable of then producing a good score if its bombed in long under pressure.

Collingwood's extremely intense hot and cold style of play during games is to me unsettling to an extent. it's frantic and kamakaze like which makes it unsustainable, but if they are within reach and a bit of gas in the tank it is a problem towards the end.

I think we win, but my heart will almost fall out of my chest i think a few times.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

Yep- posting on the main board.

geelong winning possesses zero interest in him being on the geelong boards.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

will add as well some further respects, Craig Mcrae

Craig Mcrae

Age

51

Ht

176cm

Wt

73kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.9

3star

K

9.0

3star

HB

3.9

3star

M

2.4

3star

T

1.9

4star

G

1.2

4star

No current season stats available

D

16.2

4star

K

10.6

4star

HB

5.6

4star

M

1.8

2star

T

1.2

3star

G

1.4

5star

reminds me alot of a young Chris Scott

Chris Scott

Age

48

Ht

182cm

Wt

89kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.6

4star

K

11.2

4star

HB

5.4

4star

M

5.1

5star

T

1.6

4star

G

0.4

3star

No current season stats available

D

13.2

4star

K

10.2

4star

HB

3.0

3star

M

2.2

3star

T

2.8

5star

G

0.4

3star

. Bloody good tactical coach. They nailed that coaching selection.

 

[Romeoh1]

i am backing us in all the way to knock over melbourne 100%, i think we have developed a game plan specifically to beat melbourne as well. That game at skilled we should have won comfortably by about 8-10 goals. We controlled it from start to finish.

melbournes 50% win record since round 10 is not overly flattering either.

all we need to do against melbourne is break even in the midfield and we win. They do not have the forward line capable of then producing a good score if its bombed in long under pressure.

Collingwood's extremely intense hot and cold style of play during games is to me unsettling to an extent. it's frantic and kamakaze like which makes it unsustainable, but if they are within reach and a bit of gas in the tank it is a problem towards the end.

I think we win, but my heart will almost fall out of my chest i think a few times.

Yep-I reckon our team will cope with the Pies. The pies have a lot of belief and that makes a difference. They know how to win. They go quickly up the corridor and their tackling is fierce. We will need to be tough, but we have shown ourselves to be resilient this year. We can absorb a lot of pressure. And we look purposeful too. I can’t see them getting those late marks against us. I expect us to cover their dashes up the middle. They will keep coming and we will keep stopping them. I just see us as a stronger team- in 12 months it’ll be a different story. Pies will be very good by then.
Ah well, it has the makings of a very interesting contest.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

Yep-I reckon our team will cope with the Pies. The pies have a lot of belief and that makes a difference. They know how to win. They go quickly up the corridor and their tackling is fierce. We will need to be tough, but we have shown ourselves to be resilient this year. We can absorb a lot of pressure. And we look purposeful too. I can’t see them getting those late marks against us. I expect us to cover their dashes up the middle. They will keep coming and we will keep stopping them. I just see us as a stronger team- in 12 months it’ll be a different story. Pies will be very good by then.
Ah well, it has the makings of a very interesting contest.

i can honestly see us opening up melbourne across the ground and belting them by 6-10 goals, i think they are shockingly overrated this season and there is a real spook factor to them based on last year only. I am tipping an upset and sydney to beat melbourne, and geelong to beat collingwood which leads to a geelong sydney GF.

If they didn't win the flag last year, i doubt anyone would be singing out loud about them after going 6-6 after round 10.

there are two teams that bother me in the finals, and that is collingwood in my opinion are the second best team in the AFL after us, then Sydney can really cause some problems as well, then third after that i feel richmond would have to really pull something out of their ass on the day to achieve a win. like bolton having 25 and 4 goals and lynch running rampant. I think we have richmond covered.

I am very nervous about this one as i see it as the pathway to the premiership if we get it.

Melbourne strike me as a particularly arrogant club at the moment with some of their players like May, and will probably just think all they need to do is show up against us and it will happen.

 

[Stokey]

i am backing us in all the way to knock over melbourne 100%, i think we have developed a game plan specifically to beat melbourne as well. That game at skilled we should have won comfortably by about 8-10 goals. We controlled it from start to finish.

melbournes 50% win record since round 10 is not overly flattering either.

all we need to do against melbourne is break even in the midfield and we win. They do not have the forward line capable of then producing a good score if its bombed in long under pressure.

Collingwood's extremely intense hot and cold style of play during games is to me unsettling to an extent. it's frantic and kamakaze like which makes it unsustainable, but if they are within reach and a bit of gas in the tank it is a problem towards the end.

I think we win, but my heart will almost fall out of my chest i think a few times.

Just got to stop Melbourne influence out of the centre and wear link players like Neal-bullen and Viney that get it to Petracca like gloves.
Dont kick it down the line to Gawn
Go around Lever and May.

 

[barmy44]

Have just watched the last qtrs of:
Coll
Rich
Melb

Each of those were finger tip wins but in each you see how the Cats do it. And it’s bullocking your way often with repeat stoppages until it goes your way. I don’t think Coll close wins are flukes and neither do I Geelong’s. Personally, if Cats don’t s**t he bed as they have so often have before then we’ll thrash Coll. Syd should have won by more. It will come down to how accurate we are.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

Love your posts, but disagree.
Pies have made last quarter wins an art-form, and having watched all their wins, almost come to expect that last quarter blitz.
The Demons game was scary- they kept in touch all night, despite Demons seeming to dominate, then, BANG.
And they have done it so repetitively, it is simply not a fluke.

Close wins are 50/50 - basically random. There is romance to the "team just knowing how to win close ones", but... it isn't really true in any measurable sense.

It simply is a fluke, probably.

Plenty of statistical data supports this... the easiest to grasp is there is a high correlation of good season following good season, bad season following bad season. Good teams are good for a number of seasons, bad teams for a number of seasons. Most regress towards the mean.

There is no correlation between teams that manage a lot or a string of close wins, and continuing to do so. Teams that win all the close ones in a season lose them all, or split them all, the next. It is totally random, all noise.

There have been a lot of statistical studies done on this, in an AFL context. Close wins are slightly slanted towards good teams, but good teams win more non-close games, too.

Geelong 2014 - fantastic record in the close games, 7 by a goal or less I think. Straight sets. Brisbane 2001-2003 - 21% win record in close games. Three flags in a row. Hawthorn in their premiership years were bouncing about from 20% to 60% in close games year to year.

Collingwood's close win streak is remarkable, but it is largely coincidence and luck - or fluke. 11 wins by 2 goals or less is a VFL/AFL record by some margin.

There is a bit of romance to the "team that just wins the close ones" - Hawthorn had it in 2016 (but not any of the more or less successful years either side), and this Collingwood side does as well.

Matthew Lloyd was banging on about how it is remarkable coaching, and the fact Pendlebury and Sidebottom have done it in big games before, and they won't regress to the mean.

But he is wrong. It's remarkable, but it's luck. And they will regress to the mean or completely invert and lose all the close ones - there has never been a team ever that won the close ones for years running.

Richmond have lost 4 games by a goal or less (and a draw) since round 7. They could easily be equal top.

Collingwood have won 11 games by 2 goals or less. They could easily be out of the 8.

It is one of those perpetual footy myths, the clutch close game kings. It just feels right. But it doesn't hold up.

Collingwood have had a remarkable year. But it is largely a flukey and very lucky year. They could replay this season 100 times and never put such a streak of close wins together.

Some reading, if you're interested:

Round 17 – close games are still basically random

Given the AFL’s insistence on scheduling Thursday night games, Round 17 has already begun with Hawthorn pipping Sydney in yet another close win (and a fourth last-moments defeat for the Swans…

hurlingpeoplenow.wordpress.com

What Proportion of Close Games Should the Better Team Win? — Matter of Stats

These week there's been a lot of talk about Hawthorn and their ability to "win the close ones", one narrative being that they are somehow able to do this more often than they "should" given that they're 5 and 0 in games finishing with a margin of under a goal this season.

www.matterofstats.com

Close games and coin tosses

If clubs win a lot of close games, what does that tell us about the club’s culture?

thearcfooty.com

 

[Romeoh1]

i can honestly see us opening up melbourne across the ground and belting them by 6-10 goals, i think they are shockingly overrated this season and there is a real spook factor to them based on last year only. I am tipping an upset and sydney to beat melbourne, and geelong to beat collingwood which leads to a geelong sydney GF.

If they didn't win the flag last year, i doubt anyone would be singing out loud about them after going 6-6 after round 10.

there are two teams that bother me in the finals, and that is collingwood in my opinion are the second best team in the AFL after us, then Sydney can really cause some problems as well, then third after that i feel richmond would have to really pull something out of their ass on the day to achieve a win. like bolton having 25 and 4 goals and lynch running rampant. I think we have richmond covered.

I am very nervous about this one as i see it as the pathway to the premiership if we get it.

Melbourne strike me as a particularly arrogant club at the moment with some of their players like May, and will probably just think all they need to do is show up against us and it will happen.

Still reckon if the dees can get really going again, they will be hard to beat. Otherwise, yep-we will beat them.
Feel quite confident we can beat the Swans. Don’t see how their forward line can beat our backs. And Richmond for that matter, although unlikely to get to that point.
We are the best team in it. We are a great chance.

 

[Cursed Cat]

Close wins are 50/50 - basically random. There is romance to the "team just knowing how to win close ones", but... it isn't really true in any measurable sense.

It simply is a fluke, probably.

Plenty of statistical data supports this... the easiest to grasp is there is a high correlation of good season following good season, bad season following bad season. Good teams are good for a number of seasons, bad teams for a number of seasons. Most regress towards the mean.

There is no correlation between teams that manage a lot or a string of close wins, and continuing to do so. Teams that win all the close ones in a season lose them all, or split them all, the next. It is totally random, all noise.

There have been a lot of statistical studies done on this, in an AFL context. Close wins are slightly slanted towards good teams, but good teams win more non-close games, too.

Geelong 2014 - fantastic record in the close games, 7 by a goal or less I think. Straight sets. Brisbane 2001-2003 - 21% win record in close games. Three flags in a row. Hawthorn in their premiership years were bouncing about from 20% to 60% in close games year to year.

Collingwood's close win streak is remarkable, but it is largely coincidence and luck - or fluke. 11 wins by 2 goals or less is a VFL/AFL record by some margin.

There is a bit of romance to the "team that just wins the close ones" - Hawthorn had it in 2016 (but not any of the more or less successful years either side), and this Collingwood side does as well.

Matthew Lloyd was banging on about how it is remarkable coaching, and the fact Pendlebury and Sidebottom have done it in big games before, and they won't regress to the mean.

But he is wrong. It's remarkable, but it's luck. And they will regress to the mean or completely invert and lose all the close ones - there has never been a team ever that won the close ones for years running.

Richmond have lost 4 games by a goal or less (and a draw) since round 7. They could easily be equal top.

Collingwood have won 11 games by 2 goals or less. They could easily be out of the 8.

It is one of those perpetual footy myths, the clutch close game kings. It just feels right. But it doesn't hold up.

Collingwood have had a remarkable year. But it is largely a flukey and very lucky year. They could replay this season 100 times and never put such a streak of close wins together.

Some reading, if you're interested:

Round 17 – close games are still basically random

Given the AFL’s insistence on scheduling Thursday night games, Round 17 has already begun with Hawthorn pipping Sydney in yet another close win (and a fourth last-moments defeat for the Swans…

hurlingpeoplenow.wordpress.com

What Proportion of Close Games Should the Better Team Win? — Matter of Stats

These week there's been a lot of talk about Hawthorn and their ability to "win the close ones", one narrative being that they are somehow able to do this more often than they "should" given that they're 5 and 0 in games finishing with a margin of under a goal this season.

www.matterofstats.com

Close games and coin tosses

If clubs win a lot of close games, what does that tell us about the club’s culture?

thearcfooty.com

All that luck doesn't preclude them from bringing their best against us Barmy

 

[barmy44]

All that luck doesn't preclude them from bringing their best against us Barmy

Of course it doesn't. I'm not even overly confident we will beat them next weekend. I think we should, and I think we are a better team, and I think Collingwood's record flatters them this season, but they could absolutely win it next weekend. They could even win the premiership.

They wouldn't even necessarily need to bring their best against us. They could play a completely middling game and win it. I was by no means meaning that post as a slight on them or their chances. Collingwood have just had a crazy sequence of 11 largely 50/50 results all falling their way this year. It's remarkable.

Any team can beat any other team in any game. Sport is weird, and the "best team" doesn't always win it.

 

[year of the cat]

The concern for the Pies is that they put themselves in the position to be continuously having to come from behind or just scrape over the line. The actual winning is great for the theatre of it but shouldn’t instill confidence that they are somehow destined to keep it going in the finals.

Assuming we are switched on, we really should account for them quite comfortably. I just can’t see them beating us over 4 quarters. An analogy being a tennis player being able to beat a champion player over 3 sets but not 5. We’ve seen it a number of times this year where when we’ve had a poor quarter, we’ve been able to reset and have a commanding next quarter. The Pies might get one good quarter, but they aren’t stringing the 2-3 they’ll need to beat us.

 

[Munich]

The concern for the Pies is that they put themselves in the position to be continuously having to come from behind or just scrape over the line. The actual winning is great for the theatre of it but shouldn’t instill confidence that they are somehow destined to keep it going in the finals.

Assuming we are switched on, we really should account for them quite comfortably. I just can’t see them beating us over 4 quarters. An analogy being a tennis player being able to beat a champion player over 3 sets but not 5. We’ve seen it a number of times this year where when we’ve had a poor quarter, we’ve been able to reset and have a commanding next quarter. The Pies might get one good quarter, but they aren’t stringing the 2-3 they’ll need to beat us.

They can have the 2nd qtr.

 

[TheWoodenSlug]

Started to get all excited this evening, then remembered it's a bye week.

It's probably to our advantage this year - an extra week for Cameron, Duncan, Stanley, Guthrie etc - but man, the week off is such a buzz kill.

 

[Strange Cat]

We'll see

Nawwwww

 

[Pure_Ownage]

I don’t think it is the crowd that has spooked them, it is the significant increase in tempo of the game. The crowd feeds into that, but it is the huge change from our low tempo possession game to frantic finals football that has been the problem.

Last year in particular we also had a backline in disarray, which meant we conceded a ridiculous number of cheap goals.

Even though this year we have played a much higher tempo game, I still don’t think we love a team really piling on the pressure, but we are better at managing these parts of the game, and then getting back control.

I also don’t think a 4 goal deficit will scare this team too much. They know they can slam goals on when it is going our way. So hopefully less inclined to panic if Collingwood start well.

I agree with all that.

What cameron brings (as the last coll game shows) is the ability to slam goals on quickly if we are in trouble but its crucial when they have the run on that we manage to get the momentum back quicker and dont allow runs of goals like we have in previous years finals.

I do agree the up tempo of finals has caught us out previously and hopefully the fact that our gameplan is now more up tempo has us ready for that.

 

[Stokey]

I agree with all that.

What cameron brings (as the last coll game shows) is the ability to slam goals on quickly if we are in trouble but its crucial when they have the run on that we manage to get the momentum back quicker and dont allow runs of goals like we have in previous years finals.

I do agree the up tempo of finals has caught us out previously and hopefully the fact that our gameplan is now more up tempo has us ready for that.

We have played in some of the games of the season against Port and Richmond and prevailed.

I think iur tempo game is in very good knick and deadly for finals.

Not often you see someone dancing on the spot, eyes darting around for an option.

Every mark, free etc is just an instinctive release.

That should hold up in Finals.

 

[manicpie]

Nawwwww

More wishful than anything else, it could get ugly for us

 

[Mad_Hatter]

This. Pre. Finals. Bye. Is. Bullshit.










Except if it helps injured players be right for finals...

 

[Stokey]

This. Pre. Finals. Bye. Is. Bullshit.










Except if it helps injured players be right for finals...

Shhh!

This year good

 

[D BRIDGE]

Pies finished 17th last year.

They have overachieved (congrats to them).

We are on another level.

 

[Wojcinski]

Just browsing youtube and this came up in my recommended

 

[Stokey]

Just browsing youtube and this came up in my recommended

Please don't remind me how shit the commentators were for our flags. Odds means we got no Bruce or Dennis.

Tim Lane great in 07 and 09. Huddo ok in 07 11 but the rest..

07 - Voss and Walls were awful
09-11 The cat hating Quartmain barracked against us.
11. ****ing Luke Darcy. Lloyd ok.

 

[Farmer2Goggin]

The concern for the Pies is that they put themselves in the position to be continuously having to come from behind or just scrape over the line. The actual winning is great for the theatre of it but shouldn’t instill confidence that they are somehow destined to keep it going in the finals.

Assuming we are switched on, we really should account for them quite comfortably. I just can’t see them beating us over 4 quarters. An analogy being a tennis player being able to beat a champion player over 3 sets but not 5. We’ve seen it a number of times this year where when we’ve had a poor quarter, we’ve been able to reset and have a commanding next quarter. The Pies might get one good quarter, but they aren’t stringing the 2-3 they’ll need to beat us.

Agree YOTC - our challenge is to maintain our present form into the Finals - do that and we will be very hard to beat.
I haven't studied the Pies close wins except for the Blues and Dons wins - both teams produced defensive shockers throughout the last quarters and should not have lost. I would be shocked if we succumb to that level if confronted with the same situation.