Preview QF1 Geelong v Collingwood Sat Sept 3 2022, 435pm @ MCG

[Footy_Fan2007]

If Martin is back, the Tiggies/Brions game SCREAMS of Bolton and Martin kicking 4 each while Daniher, Cameron and Not Nadal going missing again or kicking 1 goal between them.

I just don't see how the Lions win this.

Martin won’t have an impact.
Name a player that has been out for 10 weeks straight, comes back into a final and dominates?

Yes I am aware of how good he is, but everyone has limitations.

Fwiw I don’t think he’ll play anyway. Hardwick doesn’t look confident when Martin is mentioned in pressers.

Of course I could be wrong though.

 

[fpm84]

 

[Footy_Fan2007]

Cats spearhead among a host of possible inclusions

Jeremy Cameron has overcome a hamstring injury in plenty of time to be ready for the Cats' qualifying final against Collingwood

www.geelongcats.com.au

You’d think the players would be excited about the possibly of a heap of cats fans showing up.

 

[And_ROOS]

Martin won’t have an impact.
Name a player that has been out for 10 weeks straight, comes back into a final and dominates?

Yes I am aware of how good he is, but everyone has limitations.

Fwiw I don’t think he’ll play anyway. Hardwick doesn’t look confident when Martin is mentioned in pressers.

Of course I could be wrong though.

I don't think he will dominate, Bolton will, I just think Martin will sit forward and kick goals. Brisbane just don't have a good match up for him.

Duncan, Stanley and Cameron were always coming in, the issue is who goes out? O'Connor? Zuthrie?

 

[Lana]

Any chance his drop off correlates with Parfitt returning to the team? Timeline appears to match up.

His decline started the game Parfitt was the sub, so kind of before.

 

[Tony Barber]

This. Pre. Finals. Bye. Is. Bullshit.


Except if it helps injured players be right for finals...

I’m confused as to why people sook over this.

Open your eyes. There’s only 9 games to go.
4 next week then 2, then 2, then 1.
Then you can have fun discussing trades or something.

Go finish the pruning this weekend….?

 

[PzBlinky]

4 changes from the team that breezed past West Coast? (Since Guth was part of the 22)

There's going to be some unlucky players no matter how the MC tackle it.

 

[Mad_Hatter]

I’m confused as to why people sook over this.

Open your eyes. There’s only 9 games to go.
4 next week then 2, then 2, then 1.
Then you can have fun discussing trades or something.

Go finish the pruning this weekend….?

Nice strawman, not sooking bud..
It's pretty obvious why it's VERY unpopular, you spend the entire home and away building up to the finals, in particular the last month or so jostling for positions with will they/won't they make finals/top 4, all culminating in a huge last weekend where positions are up for grabs and decided, all that hype, all that energy and excitement, then we're all told to sit in the corner for a fortnight and wait.
It cools.
Excitement and hype disapate.

The AFL did an internal poll regarding the bye a several years ago, it was wildly unpopular, yet due to it the dogs won a historic flag, and it's proven to reduce the bonus of finishing top 4 and allows 5th-8th a higher chance of winning the flag, so the AFL decided the "fairytale" stories were more important.

 

[Munich]

I don’t trust Brisbane as far as I can throw Dayne Zorko. But they have had a strong H&A record for a few years. I can see why the models are tipping them.

I think Bris will win

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

What a year for both sides, we've really over achieved this year but it's been a great ride. Whatever happens from here is a bonus for us really, good luck mate

Enjoy the ride mate and set your sights high. Nothing is a 'bonus' and nothing should be taken for granted.

Aim high.

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

Menegola will be the Mooney/Milburn of 2011 imo

 

[00VicWard001]

I think Bris will win

They'll wnt to make a statement. Loss to Richmond, after dominating the game, pantsing by Melbourne, Captain embarrassed by his actions, insipid performance by players. Honestly, this could what they needed to get them all the way to a GF (they'll have to go through us if we win next week).

 

[bulletproof]

I’m confused as to why people sook over this.

Open your eyes. There’s only 9 games to go.
4 next week then 2, then 2, then 1.
Then you can have fun discussing trades or something.

Go finish the pruning this weekend….?

100% agree. I think it is great to take a weekend off and do something else before it all kicks off again.

Not a popular opinion, but I like it.

 

[bulletproof]

They'll wnt to make a statement. Loss to Richmond, after dominating the game, pantsing by Melbourne, Captain embarrassed by his actions, insipid performance by players. Honestly, this could what they needed to get them all the way to a GF (they'll have to go through us if we win next week).

They might get a one week bounce. I would have been more nervous facing Brisbane than Collingwood, because their best is very good. And very likely to get a response.

I don’t think they can sustain any strong form for more than a week though.

Tricky fixture for Richmond and that is where it will end, one way or the other.

 

[MotlopMagic]

I don't think he will dominate, Bolton will, I just think Martin will sit forward and kick goals. Brisbane just don't have a good match up for him.

Duncan, Stanley and Cameron were always coming in, the issue is who goes out? O'Connor? Zuthrie?

Brandon Stracevich is possibly the best
match up in the competition for Martin.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[catsfootyfan89]

I think Bris will win

Can't see it happening, to be honest. Richmond are surging and have nothing to lose.

 

[allrighty]

Nice strawman, not sooking bud..
It's pretty obvious why it's VERY unpopular, you spend the entire home and away building up to the finals, in particular the last month or so jostling for positions with will they/won't they make finals/top 4, all culminating in a huge last weekend where positions are up for grabs and decided, all that hype, all that energy and excitement, then we're all told to sit in the corner for a fortnight and wait.
It cools.
Excitement and hype disapate.

The AFL did an internal poll regarding the bye a several years ago, it was wildly unpopular, yet due to it the dogs won a historic flag, and it's proven to reduce the bonus of finishing top 4 and allows 5th-8th a higher chance of winning the flag, so the AFL decided the "fairytale" stories were more important.

The bye should be the week before the GF. Gives both of the best teams to date the chance to get it right. OR no bye, even better.

Bye Bye Bye.

 

[Finknottle]

The AFL mock teams had Miers as one of the 4 emergencies. I think he certainly deserves a place in the 22. He's been on fire recently.

 

[Burtyl78]

Know how you feel.
I'm saving all my hard earned for the GF.
If we don't get there, I haven't lost much.
If we do, I will need to have saved- very expensive are 2 GF seats.

I have payed for a September membership so I am all in, just don’t like the qualifying finals

 

[allrighty]

The AFL mock teams had Miers as one of the 4 emergencies. I think he certainly deserves a place in the 22. He's been on fire recently.

He is playing all over the ground and is quick and 95% of the time clean, plus can kick a clutch goal too. Been ok in finals to date IIRC

 

[barmy44]

Really good post.

This illustrates why we're, in theory, a better side and should win. But like you said in you're follow up post, that isn't to say we will win.

I think further to this, I would say this is the best shot we've had at winning the flag in quite a while, but there's no guarantees. Any team that wins the premiership needs some luck.

At this point we have to essentially win 3 games in a row to win it. Even if we went in to each game with an 80/20 chance of winning that match, we'd be about a 50/50 chance of winning 3 in a row. in reality we probably go in as 60/40 favourites in most of our remaining games which gives us a 20% chance of winning the flag. So, we're in really good shape this year, but we're still going to need some luck if we're to win.

Yep! I've said very similar to the last paragraph myself.

The best team in it - assuming we even are - is always less likely to win it than one of the other 7 teams in it!

Every premiership ever won has been statistically unlikely. Sport is bizarre

 

[Strange Cat]

4 changes from the team that breezed past West Coast? (Since Guth was part of the 22)

There's going to be some unlucky players no matter how the MC tackle it.

That’s the nature of finals really

 

[standupand]

I wonder about what kind of back six we will go with for the pies.

They don't really have too many damaging talls by my reckoning. Their best forwards are probably Elliott, Ginnivan, De Goey if he goes forward. Mihocek is a consistent performer for them without being outstanding. I can't see Cox doing much harm. Johnson could pose some problems I suppose.

O'Connor looks the obvious choice to come out for Duncan. But there's a good chance the lock-down jobs are going to fall on our smaller defenders in this game. Bews and Z.Guthrie are reliable. Kolo or Henry can play on the mid-sized types like De Goey or Johnson. Tuohy can play tight if need be.

Would it be top-heavy to play all of SDK, Henry and Kolo back there?

At the other end of the ground the big question is whether either Rohan or Miers come out for Cameron. They're very different players. Rohan provides F50 pressure and aerial ability. Miers running power and some creativity.

A month or so ago I would have said Miers doesn't quite make the cut, but he is in great form. Rohan I believe plays a more valuable role than what he tends to get credit for. And against the pies, who don't bat deep for key defenders, I think he is the type that could cause some havoc.

I'm not a subscriber to the horses for courses theory. But even narrowing down our best 22 is not easy.

 

[Toe Poke]

At the other end of the ground the big question is whether either Rohan or Miers come out for Cameron. They're very different players. Rohan provides F50 pressure and aerial ability. Miers running power and some creativity.

In round 23, Ceglar and SavRat both played.
https://www.afl.com.au/afl/matches/4002

Assuming that Stanley is available, then I would assume that most people would expect Ceglar to be dropped to make way for Stanley.
Assuming that Cameron is available, then I would assume that most people would expect SavRat to be dropped to make way for Cameron.

The questions about players such as Rohan, Miers (and others on the fringe) is more relevant for discussing who (and how many) are dropped for the other players who were missing in round 23. Specifically, the following three players did not play in round 23: Duncan, Atkins (who only played as a medical sub) and Menegola.

If I was selecting the team, it would be:

B: O'Connor De Koning Bews
HB: Tuohy Kolo Stewart
C: Duncan CGuthrie Menegola
HF: Smith Cameron Parfitt
F: Close Hawkins Stengle
R: Stanley Dangerfield Selwood
I: Blicavs Henry Atkins Holmes
SUB: ZGuthrie
E: Ceglar Miers Rohan

Which gives INs and OUTs as follows:

IN: Stanley Cameron Duncan Menegola Atkins (promoted from #23 to starting 22)
OUT: Ceglar SavRat Rohan Miers ZGuthrie (demoted from starting 22 to #23)

Although I acknowledge that this could possibly (probably) be different to what the match committee selects. For example it could be that Menegola's "rest" in round 23 means that he is considered not part of what they believe to be the best 22.

 

[goyoucatters]

Menegola will be the Mooney/Milburn of 2011 imo

Could well be. It seems telling that his name wasn't specifically included when the coach listed the players who were definitely going to return to the 22 for the QF.

Mena could actually be quite an effective sub. Elite running capacity, and the possibility of coming into the game when the heat has dissipated a little, thereby minimising the possibility of the team being burnt by his insistence in taking on the tackler in potentially dangerous positions on the ground. Will definitely be interesting to see how they view the sub role in formulating the 23 for the game.

And the complexity of it all might mean that the only certainty is that it's going to be very challenging for the M.C. if our current player availability status remains intact through to next weekend.