Preview QF1 Geelong v Collingwood Sat Sept 3 2022, 435pm @ MCG

[JohnZ]

That would actually be pretty awesome

It would at least make the weekend of some use whilst we wait for the granny.

 

[00VicWard001]

I think in a final when the heat will be massive and it will be a midfield battle, we would be absolutely daft NOT having tackling weapons in Parfitt and Atkins in the middle. Especially Atkins who this year loves the contest and lifts in all our big games.
Flip side, nothing scares me more than watching O'Connor indecisively bring the ball out of defense and then not do much with it.

Atkins is our pressure king and Parfitt not far behind. Our team relies on forward and midfield pressure to win the ball back and fire it forward to our hard running forwards. He is a lock for finals.

 

[00VicWard001]

Yeah, maybe.

Like I said, if that is their training / plan to keep it tight and deny / capitalise, then we should see a few seasons in a row of lots of close games and a high win % in them.

The problem is, of course, that Collingwood really shouldn't have won some of those games. A system that relies on such fine margins in a game involving 36 plays on a 360° field that covers a few hundred square metres with a ball that could bounce in any direction... it's not sustainable or reliable.

I'm sure they have trained for close game situations (most teams would), but no team in history has sustainably "been clutch in the close ones".

Their results over the next few seasons may assist in determining if its plan or luck.

I'm definitely not saying theybare a rubbish team this year or ONLY there from luck. I'm just saying they had a season that is entirely unique, and their win record is in part due to more wins falling their way than chance would suggest.

Raw score isn't my focus. I'm not saying footy teams should be trying to score in every situation.

But really good teams tend to score more than they concede regularly. Across all sports.

This Collingwood team didn't across 14 games. And yet they won 16. Never been done before like this.

If it's a system, the next few seasons should provide similar results.

If they don't - then this season involved a lot of luck falling their way, or their system treads such a fine line it's almost a bad one, or both.

Either way, % only matters to break ties and they won 16 games which is enough for top 4.

So they're top 4! And I remember what they did to us recently from 4th. So from here, it's about what happens on the day.

Also, I don't think I'm some guru with all the answers so I hope it doesn't seem like I'm talking down to you...

Just find this stuff super interesting (as well as your views on it!) and like thinking about it / discussing it.

I agree with you.

Their coach pointed out that what happened with Carlton wasn’t sustainable.

Close game wins as a method would be one of the worst ways for a team to try and win. It would rely on knowing exactly everything your own team needs to do win - and then implementing this over a resisting opponent, and discounting all factors such as potential injury, fatigue, the ball bouncing the wrong way.

Teams simply don’t have that much control. Individuals playing games like tennis don’t have that much control, hell, even Steph Curry misses when he’s practicing on his own and taking shots from behind the 3 point line.

 

[00VicWard001]

Doubt it'll happen but Rohan putting a defensive forward tag on Nick Daicos would be interesting.

Daicos is so slick out of the backline with his run, link-up ability and effective kicking.

Rohan is fast enough to stick close and keep Daicos under pressure more than normal.

Close.

Rohan will be on Howe or Maynard. Likely providing contest and pressure. Close will defend Daicos and punish him the other way.

 

[Nickoo]

Just seems bizarre how this metaphor was ever conceived to me. Even taking what you have quite reasonably postulated here, there's yet more questions.

1. On what possible basis would intense pressure (supposedly of the psychological kind, in the case of footy) contribute to someone literally defecating in their bed?
2. And how is the idea of resting comfortably in your bed (and then having catastrophe strike) in any way linked to the extreme physical rigours associated with striving to win a game of finals football?

I get that the expression is going to hang around and supposedly 'sum up' for many people what happens when players or teams fail to perform under duress. But how the ideas of resting in a bed and the almost entirely unrelated concept of soling yourself connect in any way with the reality of chronic underperformance in any sporting endeavour just thoroughly bemuses me.

The origins of the phrase aside (I.e., death) it’s not uncommon for people who are suffering enduring stress, anxiety which impacts their biological rhythms to the extent that while exhausted they have a bowel movement plus other impacts. There’s a plastic surgeon registrar who shit herself in bed after working two stints of 72 hours 9 days under high extreme pressure in a major sydney hospital. Ultimately the event lead her to give up her training. She was considered brilliant but her consultants took advantage of that.


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[domus]

I have read about AlphaGo a long time ago... that doco sounds interesting, I will try remember to watch it soon.

I may have misunderstood some of your post, so sorry if my reply is a bit off the mark.

I do think the boardgame and AFL cannot be compared in this sense. Scenario specific training is all well and good, but I'd say the game itself is far too dynamic to even begin to comprehend how it could be broken down in that way, let alone then plan a way to utilise that to produce favourable outcomes on balance more often than not and then communicate and implement that plan. That would surely take some chaos theory wizadry I'm not sure is possible.

Collingwoods close game streak is impressive, but also largely a season reliant on simply a lot of results falling their way by chance (IMO, of course).

I have been reading a lot about close games, and how they are largely - in the final minute or two, with a kick in it - chance outcomes. I've posted a number of links recently - happy to again, if you're interested.

Training to have games close and then win most of them... I don't know, doesn't seem to be maximising your chances. Winning 80% of 14 close games is crazy. If they replicate that over the next 3 or 4 seasons, their ability to win close games at better than chance due to the execution of a well drilled plan would have some merit. They are just as likely to go at 20% in close ones next year, and in far less than 14.

But no team does - the 3-peat Hawthorn sides were great from 2012 - 2016. But their results in close games in each year yo-yoed from woeful to perfect. Often, good sides are good sides and bad sides are bad sides across many seasons. I don't think there has ever been a statistically significant "good in close games" team across multiple seasons. Ever.

So planning to keep them close and win them in the end seems like planning to get rich by getting 10 consecutive spins right on the Roulette wheel. Not so outrageous, but that kind of thing.

Too much can go wrong, and your whole season is cooked.

That's why I brought up % and scores. Good teams just win big.

If Collingwood had a neutral points for and against because they won 16 games by 40 points but also got absolutely belted in their 6 games, that would make a bit more sense.

But to be +60 in points for over 22 games with 14 being decided by 2 goals or less (and winning 80% of those), and win 16 overall - that's not something you can plan for. And if you do plan for it, even just actually executing and pulling it off is so insanely remote.

In contrast, we are about +650 points for with only 2 more wins.

That's what I meant by the narrow path. Collingwood had to do everything perfectly to end up 16-6. A few things go wrong (Carlton had 20 - 11 i50s in the last quarter against them, and kicked 6 points), and they are out of the 8.

Most other sides had so much more wiggle room in their seasons. If our 50/50 results flipped, we are still probably top 4. if theirs are flipped, they are bottom 6.

So I have no doubt teams have methods and plans to increase their likelihood of winning... but I can't see how Collingwood can square their season record with that in any logical way.

Next season they are just as likely to be 8-14 at about 100%. Or more likely 11-11.

So I get what you're saying, and I think it is really interesting and probably in play in some ways in most clubs. But if I understood, and it was kind of "only have to win them all by 1 point", then that is simply an unsustainable way to try and have successful seasons.

I think a number of the 80% close games they won (7 of their last 8 games were by 7 points or less, and they won them all - some where the opposition played themselves out of it as much as Collingwood won them), it was a unique season record that, and I've said this before, they'd struggle to replicate if they played the season 100 more times.

We have managed to lose 5 grand finals by ten points or less leading all of them bar 79 with less than ten minutes remaining in the game. We also have been in two drawn grand finals after leading one by 27 points at three quarter time and over four goals up at halftime and dominating inside 50s in the 2010 draw.
We led Carlton by five goals in wet, heavy conditions before losing by five points in 1979.
We led Carlton by 44 points at half time and lost by ten points in 1970.

We led the Lions with ten minutes remaining and lost by 9 points

We led Carlton by close to four goals at the 27 minute mark of the third term with rain falling in the 1981 grand final. We lost by 20 points.

We led Melbourne with 3 minutes remaining in 1964. We lost when a back pocket ignored a clear instruction from Norm Smith and kicked the winning goal. Smith refused to talk to him after the game

So one might think after getting a five goal lead against the Eagles in 2018 that this ridiculous pattern involving completely different teams wearing the black and white would surely not play out again

A freak occurrence of three one in a hundred plays happened in a thirty second passage and ended with a one in ten shot on goal splitting the big perpendiculars.

It happened again. When Sheed marked on the boundary suiting a left footer my son and I had no doubt he would kick it and knew the game was over. When the Eagle fans rose as one it simply confirmed what was written in the starswe keep finding ways to lose from positions of strength and dominance

t tore out our hearts yet it was strangely predictable.

Who knows. Our crazy run might just continue. We are Collingwood so one comes to expect the painful, heartbreaking finale to this exhilarating ride but stats seem to fall by the wayside at times and it seems fate seems to have it's way.

Time will tell.

We have beaten some very good sides including Melbourne twice when they were playing great footy during the game. We are a good team

 

[Nickoo]

I hate bye weeks.

But this year we’ve really needed it.


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[Vdubs]

We have managed to lose 5 grand finals by ten points or less leading all of them bar 79 with less than ten minutes remaining in the game. We also have been in two drawn grand finals after leading one by 27 points at three quarter time and over four goals up at halftime and dominating inside 50s in the 2010 draw. We led Carlton by five goals in wet, heavy conditions before losing by five points in 1979.
We led Carlton by 44 points at half time and lost by ten points in 1970.

We led the Lions with ten minutes remaining and lost by 9 points

We led Carlton by close to four goals at the 27 minute mark of the third term with rain falling in the 1981 grand final

We led Melbourne with 3 minutes remaining in 1964.

So one might think after getting a five goal lead against the Eagles in 2018 that this ridiculous pattern involving completely different teams wearing the black and white would surely not play out again

A freak occurrence of three one in a hundred plays happened in a thirty second passage and ended with a one in ten shot on goal splitting the big perpendiculars.

It happened again. When Sheed marked on the boundary suiting a left footer my son and I had no doubt he would kick it and knew the game was over. When the Eagle fans rose as one it simply confirmed what was written in the stars

It tore out our hearts yet it was strangely predictable.

Who knows. Our crazy run might just continue. We are Collingwood so one comes to expect the painful, heartbreaking finale to this exhilarating ride but stats seem to fall by the wayside at times and it seems fate seems to have it's way.

Time will tell.

We have beaten some very good sides including Melbourne twice when they were playing great footy during the game. We are okay.

I have always had empathy for Pies supporters, and was living with a mate in 1976 at Uni who was literally in tears when he came home from the 76 draw. He knew that was the game they should have stitched up.

Collingwood has always been my second team, and I'm hoping if we don't get up, that Collingwood does.

I honestly believe that in most cases, nearly all but one, that when Geelong has lost GF's (and there have been plenty) it truly was because we were not THE BEST TEAM. I do believe that was not the case in several of the Pies losses, not that this makes it any more bearable.

 

[barmy44]

We have managed to lose 5 grand finals by ten points or less leading all of them bar 79 with less than ten minutes remaining in the game. We also have been in two drawn grand finals after leading one by 27 points at three quarter time and over four goals up at halftime and dominating inside 50s in the 2010 draw.
We led Carlton by five goals in wet, heavy conditions before losing by five points in 1979.
We led Carlton by 44 points at half time and lost by ten points in 1970.

We led the Lions with ten minutes remaining and lost by 9 points

We led Carlton by close to four goals at the 27 minute mark of the third term with rain falling in the 1981 grand final. We lost by 20 points.

We led Melbourne with 3 minutes remaining in 1964. We lost when a back pocket ignored a clear instruction from Norm Smith and kicked the winning goal. Smith refused to talk to him after the game

So one might think after getting a five goal lead against the Eagles in 2018 that this ridiculous pattern involving completely different teams wearing the black and white would surely not play out again

A freak occurrence of three one in a hundred plays happened in a thirty second passage and ended with a one in ten shot on goal splitting the big perpendiculars.

It happened again. When Sheed marked on the boundary suiting a left footer my son and I had no doubt he would kick it and knew the game was over. When the Eagle fans rose as one it simply confirmed what was written in the starswe keep finding ways to lose from positions of strength and dominance

t tore out our hearts yet it was strangely predictable.

Who knows. Our crazy run might just continue. We are Collingwood so one comes to expect the painful, heartbreaking finale to this exhilarating ride but stats seem to fall by the wayside at times and it seems fate seems to have it's way.

Time will tell.

We have beaten some very good sides including Melbourne twice when they were playing great footy during the game. We are a good team

Yeah, I think you are a good team as well.

None of my thoughts on your season this year have been intended as a slight, or disrespect. I just find it a super interesting season.

One of the ways I've been trying to frame it is to anonymise the record. "Team A" winning 16-6 (which is exceptional) at 104% (which is pretty ordinary) would come as a surprise. If you were asked how many wins a team that finished on 104% had without knowing the W/L, and there was something significant riding on you getting the right answer, you probably wouldn't guess 16.

And the game is about winning enough games to qualify for finals in the best position possible. Collingwood did that, in one of the more unique ways. Set two separate VFL/AFL records for narrow wins in a single year.

And now, you only need 3 good days from here, and the low %, high win record is meaningless. It already is, actually. Sport throws up plenty of strange occurrences, and "what should happen" rarely happens.

It's the unknown becoming known in front of our eyes, and of all the things that could happen... we get stuck with what does happen.

The last time Geelong finished top and Collingwood 4th wasn't long ago, and you guys took that one.

I think it will be a good game.

 

[domus]

I have always had empathy for Pies supporters, and was living with a mate in 1976 at Uni who was literally in tears when he came home from the 76 draw. He knew that was the game they should have stitched up.

Collingwood has always been my second team, and I'm hoping if we don't get up, that Collingwood does.

I honestly believe that in most cases, nearly all but one, that when Geelong has lost GF's (and there have been plenty) it truly was because we were not THE BEST TEAM. I do believe that was not the case in several of the Pies losses, not that this makes it any more bearable.

Spot on.
1980 and 2003, 2011 were disappointing but not heartbreaking. We were beaten by better teams
It's knowing you were the better team or the fact you were a bad bounce or non decision from being premiers that burns in your gut forever.

I have seen my beloved pies play in 15 grand finals for two flags.

 

[Vdubs]

Yeah, I think you are a good team as well.

None of my thoughts on your season this year have been intended as a slight, or disrespect. I just find it a super interesting season.

One of the ways I've been trying to frame it is to anonymise the record. "Team A" winning 16-6 (which is exceptional) at 104% (which is pretty ordinary) would come as a surprise. If you were asked how many wins a team that finished on 104% had without knowing the W/L, and there was something significant riding on you getting the right answer, you probably wouldn't guess 16.

And the game is about winning enough games to qualify for finals in the best position possible. Collingwood did that, in one of the more unique ways. Set two separate VFL/AFL records for narrow wins in a single year.

And now, you only need 3 good days from here, and the low %, high win record is meaningless. It already is, actually. Sport throws up plenty of strange occurrences, and "what should happen" rarely happens.

It's the unknown becoming known in front of our eyes, and of all the things that could happen... we get stuck with what does happen.

The last time Geelong finished top and Collingwood 4th wasn't long ago, and you guys took that one.

I think it will be a good game.

All fine until that last sentence.
What do you really mean by good?

 

[Vdubs]

Spot on.
1980 and 2003, 2011 were disappointing but not heartbreaking. We were beaten by better teams
It's knowing you were the better team or the fact you were a bad bounce or non decision from being premiers that burns in your gut forever.

I have seen my beloved pies play in 15 grand finals for two flags.

Not so close- I have seen Cats in 10 GF's for 3 flags

 

[barmy44]

All fine until that last sentence.
What do you really mean by good? (and please do not be magnaninous)

Not really sure!

I personally don't think I'll know who is going to win until sometime in the last quarter. I think there will be periods where both teams string together some pretty nice passages. I don't think there will be much "negative football". Both teams play a style that is engaging.

I think it will be the kind of game where if you walked away for 5 minutes, you'd come back to a very different picture.

Some footy matches, you can miss a quarter and not much has changed.

Geelong have had a bit of a style in recent seasons that could be a bit boring. Neither of these teams are playing that way this year.

I really have no idea what to expect, what might happen... but I think it will great to watch whatever does.

 

[Nickoo]

I think in a final when the heat will be massive and it will be a midfield battle, we would be absolutely daft NOT having tackling weapons in Parfitt and Atkins in the middle. Especially Atkins who this year loves the contest and lifts in all our big games.
Flip side, nothing scares me more than watching O'Connor indecisively bring the ball out of defense and then not do much with it.

Of the two, Atkins disposal quality is a factor better than Parf’s though I put them on par for defensive beast. He’s added that type of kick in now as well where you bring the ball down with both hands. In tight situations he’s a factor better IMHO.


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[witsend]

I think Kolo misses due to concussion protocols. I see the last piece of the selection puzzle boiling down to a choice between MOC or Miers. Basically Defence v Offence.
I worry that Miers missing might destroy the confidence he’s built up over the past 3-4 games, whereas I suspect MOC would be gutted but take it in his stride.
It’s also a massive PITA that the magoos are not in finals.
My choice is:
Out: Ceglar, Ratogolea, Kolo (Concussion), MOC
In: Cameron, Duncan, Stanley

MOC medi sub


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[noclashjumpers]

I think Kolo misses due to concussion protocols. I see the last piece of the selection puzzle boiling down to a choice between MOC or Miers. Basically Defence v Offence.
I worry that Miers missing might destroy the confidence he’s built up over the past 3-4 games, whereas I suspect MOC would be gutted but take it in his stride.
It’s also a massive PITA that the magoos are not in finals.
My choice is:
Out: Ceglar, Ratogolea, Kolo (Concussion), MOC
In: Cameron, Duncan, Stanley

MOC medi sub


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He can't miss due to concussion protocols. He'll be outside of the stipulated period by game day. If he misses for concussion issues, that's something else entirely.

 

[And_ROOS]

I think Kolo misses due to concussion protocols. I see the last piece of the selection puzzle boiling down to a choice between MOC or Miers. Basically Defence v Offence.
I worry that Miers missing might destroy the confidence he’s built up over the past 3-4 games, whereas I suspect MOC would be gutted but take it in his stride.
It’s also a massive PITA that the magoos are not in finals.
My choice is:
Out: Ceglar, Ratogolea, Kolo (Concussion), MOC
In: Cameron, Duncan, Stanley

MOC medi sub


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I just can't see the MC dropping Miers due to his hard running, his link play is important and he has kicked a goal a game for the last 6 weeks except for the Saints match. He has also been up there for score involvements and goal assists.

 

[domus]

Not so close- I have seen Cats in 10 GF's for 3 flags

I know 89 was close but I think time was never on your side. Other than 67 were there any narrow losses?

 

[witsend]

He can't miss due to concussion protocols. He'll be outside of the stipulated period by game day. If he misses for concussion issues, that's something else entirely.

True but this is not his first concussion this season. I feel they may extend his break.


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[Finknottle]

I think in a final when the heat will be massive and it will be a midfield battle, we would be absolutely daft NOT having tackling weapons in Parfitt and Atkins in the middle. Especially Atkins who this year loves the contest and lifts in all our big games.
Flip side, nothing scares me more than watching O'Connor indecisively bring the ball out of defense and then not do much with it.

O'Connor is ok as a tagger due to his aerobic capacity and agility. However in general play he is inclined to take the easy option of handballing or kicking short to the nearest Geelong teammate, sometimes to a player already under the hammer. Generally he does not run with the ball or look for a weigh up options further afield. He needs to learn how to be more damaging including using his running to break defensive lines. His meters gained is very low for a player with his athletic ability.

 

[catstragic]

O'Connor is ok as a tagger due to his aerobic capacity and agility. However in general play he is inclined to take the easy option of handballing or kicking short to the nearest Geelong teammate, sometimes to a player already under the hammer. Generally he does not run with the ball or look for a weigh up options further afield. He needs to learn how to be more damaging including using his running to break defensive lines. His meters gained is very low for a player with his athletic ability.

I thought him and Zuthrie were going to be the big improvers this season, Zuth has delivered but MOC has stayed where he was (or regressed slightly) on last years form.

 

[goyoucatters]

The origins of the phrase aside (I.e., death)...

So you're saying the phrase originates from the concept of people losing control of their bodily functions at the point of death?

There’s a plastic surgeon registrar who s**t herself in bed after working two stints of 72 hours 9 days under high extreme pressure in a major sydney hospital. Ultimately the event lead her to give up her training. She was considered brilliant but her consultants took advantage of that.

In both the case you put forward here and in the situation where someone apparently dies in this condition, I fail to see any correlation between how the phrase supposedly originated and how it is used in football parlance. The situations you describe would both evoke sympathy; when the metaphor is used in footy it expresses extreme sarcasm and outright disgust. The two emotions could hardly be further apart on the psychological spectrum.

I entirely get that it won't change, and this will continue to be seen by many as the most fitting way to describe what happens when sporting teams fail to perform under pressure. But it's surely clear that the expression makes very little sense in that circumstance and that it would in fact generate an entirely different emotional response in its hearers if it was to ever be considered rationally.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

It has been a goddamn week, is it game day yet?

 

[Vdubs]

I know 89 was close but I think time was never on your side. Other than 67 were there any narrow losses?

I was referring to 08- not close, but we were easy favourites (although my son and I felt a sense of impending doom walking around the shops that very warm morning)

 

[cats_09]