Preview QF1 Geelong v Collingwood Sat Sept 3 2022, 435pm @ MCG

[Catman]

While frustrating, this hasn't been done to piss off or inconvenience football commuters, and also not sure you can put this one totally on Vline considering it's a joint project with the regional roads project in the Barwon Heads Rd upgrade

This is what they're currently working on & interruptions are a weekly weekend thing for the time being:
Due to V/Line works and the construction of a rail bridge at Marshall for the Barwon Heads Road Upgrade Project, coaches replace trains on the Geelong Line for all or part of the journey from Friday night 2 to Tuesday 6 September.


It's coincidental that the planned works are occurring with Geelong playing in Melbourne on Saturday - but things will likely get worse over the next year or so as they work on the South Geelong to Waurn Ponds rail line duplication

And these works would have been planned months in advance. Hindsight is great but these huge projects often don't have the flexibility to change plans at short notice.

 

[cats_09]

Literally zero to do with Vline bud..

Surely it's easier just to blame Vline...

I'm not going to blame Vline for the interruptions this coming weekend, but I want to see how they respond & adapt to what's going to be no doubt increased patronage on Saturday - failure to add additional services for that increase & expect us just to adapt will be more frustrating than the combined bus/train service

 

[00VicWard001]

I saw a video of Steph Curry not long ago warming up before a game. He hit 10 shots in a row from 3 point range and beyond, moving further out, eventually from mid court and then back again and finished with a high running looping jump shot and all went swoosh. He was probably having a good day.

I love watching these. 10 is nothing for him, but can he do 100 I wonder?

 

[CatToTheFuture]

We can debate the merits of Collingwood’s season all day long, but the simple fact is, given the strength of Geelong’s season, it will be a major failure to not progress in this game.

It would take a below average performance and likely a nightmare goal kicking performance. These outcomes are not unlikely, so I am not already counting this as a win.

But this would be by some distance our worst finals loss in a decade should it happen - maybe only the Freo loss in Geelong would compare. But they had a few champion players that day and Hawkins missed.

Even though the first final is of less importance post Gil’s bye, this would be an utter calamity to drop this one.

While we should win I actually worry about preparation if we do.

We've barely played credible opposition since July.

Another week off then coming up against Sydney or Melbourne is arguably more difficult than losing this one, then getting the eye on against the Dogs or Freo, then taking on Sydney or Melbourne.

 

[And_ROOS]

O'Connor is ok as a tagger due to his aerobic capacity and agility. However in general play he is inclined to take the easy option of handballing or kicking short to the nearest Geelong teammate, sometimes to a player already under the hammer. Generally he does not run with the ball or look for a weigh up options further afield. He needs to learn how to be more damaging including using his running to break defensive lines. His meters gained is very low for a player with his athletic ability.

O'Connors tagging role has basically gone to Blicavs. When Blicavs lately has been in the middle and not as a ruck he has been watching the oppositions best mids. O'Connor has been mainly a defender lately, and honestly he hasn't been good enough to hold his spot. If its him or Zuthrie, its gotta be Zuth. If its him or Atkins/Parfitt, its gotta be Atkins/Parf.

 

[bulletproof]

While we should win I actually worry about preparation if we do.

We've barely played credible opposition since July.

Another week off then coming up against Sydney or Melbourne is arguably more difficult than losing this one, then getting the eye on against the Dogs or Freo, then taking on Sydney or Melbourne.

I agree, the Prelim is looming as a major problem if we do win.

Maybe here, our experience will hold us in good stead.

 

[cats_09]

And these works would have been planned months in advance. Hindsight is great but these huge projects often don't have the flexibility to change plans at short notice.

Exactly - last year I worked as a traffic controller for a short while, and one job I was rostered onto was a local road closure for a power pole replacement

The pole being replaced was at the end of a T-intersection, so there was a bit more involved than one on a straight road and there was at least 6 different companies involved that day between the power company, Telstra, 2 x crane trucks, the truck with the replacement pole, the waste sucker truck & us traffic controllers (may have missed someone). The day started ok, but then the rain came and really just set in for more than a few hours - ultimately the job was called off & they had to reverse what had been done, knowing that they'd be back another day to do the replacement

Clearly that's a smaller job than the one on Barwon Heads, but even to reschedule that, the guys I were talking to suggested it would be a at least month before they'd get another opportunity - making sure they can get all the required companies & equipment back on site, plus permission from Powercor to turn off the power for the day etc

I dealt with more than a few frustrated locals when working on pole replacement jobs, but it's not like they can just shift jobs around at the last minute because it may inconvenience someone

 

[Catman]

Wondering how much of a factor our horrendous QF record since 2011 will be, especially considering most of our current side have been a part of losing sides in the first week.

If we can shake the monkey off our backs (if it is actually an issue), then we're more than just one week closer to a flag. The mental release could be massive.

 

[And_ROOS]

I agree, the Prelim is looming as a major problem if we do win.

Maybe here, our experience will hold us in good stead.

The offset to this is, some of our competition haven't played "credible" opposition either.
Melbournes last 3 games were against;
Brisbane - dominated a low pressure game against witches hats.
Carlton - narrow win against a team that bottled their last 4 games for the year despite plenty to play for.
Collingwood - lost to the Pies ability to close out tight games, big games from their big names at the Dees and couldn't get it done.

Sydneys last 3 games were against;
St Kilda - won despite a big scare late but let King kick a bag.
Collingwood - strong win to end that streak, but if you watched that game Collingwood looked very tired and sloppy.
North Melbourne - easy win but it was against North. Also let Larkey kick 7. Makes you wonder if a key forward will get off the chain against them in finals.


Fremantles last 3 games were against;
GWS - competitive, but poor season,
WCE - home game against a percentage booster without JK and only won by 24,
WBD - best win of their run in after getting smashed by Sydney and Melbourne, and scraping a draw with Richmond the weeks before this game. That said its an up and down bulldogs team that scraped into finals.

So despite what everyone says about us and who we played on the run in, we might have had the easiest run in but its not like other teams will be battle hardened by their run ins. Melbourne get nothing out of spanking Brissie besides reminding the Lions that they are their bitches. Sydney would have loved to smash the Saints, instead they showed the comp that key forwards can get off the hook against their defence. And Freos last two games were against GWS, who are such a nothing team you just get 4 points and get out, and WCE who are atrocious.

Melbourne with the 2 close games against Pies and Blues stands out, but then what does it say if we smash the Pies this week? In retrospect it says the Dees fell over a team that missed finals, and a Pies team who are one of the worst 4th placed teams in recent history.

 

[And_ROOS]

Wondering how much of a factor our horrendous QF record since 2011 will be, especially considering most of our current side have been a part of losing sides in the first week.

If we can shake the monkey off our backs (if it is actually an issue), then we're more than just one week closer to a flag. The mental release could be massive.

2019 was an undoing of our own stupidity,
2020 we came up against the best team in the comp on their home paddock (still don't know how it wasn't a Port/Lions GF),
2021 we went in with injuries to key players + no Stewart, there was no finals bye when we actually ****ing needed it, and had to play at Port again who at the time were on a 6 game winning streak meanwhile we went into finals on a WLWL streak dropping key games against Melbourne and a poor GWS in Geelong.
So Melbourne got a pissweak Brisbane in Adelaide (neutral ground) who are both ours and Melbournes finals bitches, meanwhile we get an inform Port with an inform eventual Brownlow medalist on Ports home pitch.

Its funny that QF to us are like PF to Port over that time.

They smash the QF and completely bottle winnable PF.
We bottle the QF then struggle to recover.

But this year, we go in with a team in its best possible form, with a gameplan we have seen stand up under pressure during the season, and have a full squad to pick from.

 

[darrenmorgan]

What’s the word on Duncan, is he right to go?

 

[STPer18]

What’s the word on Duncan, is he right to go?

Haven't listened to Hawkins' presser yet but an articles running with:

GEELONG is set to receive a huge boost ahead of its qualifying final against Collingwood on Saturday, with a host of key players expected to be available for selection.

All-Australian forward Jeremy Cameron (hamstring), ruck Rhys Stanley (adductor), and onballers Mitch Duncan (hip), Cam Guthrie (shoulder) and Sam Menegola (managed for round 23) are likely to return, according to teammate Tom Hawkins.

Welcome to the jungle: Big Cats BACK for huge Pies clash

Several big name Geelong players are expected to return for the Cats' huge qualifying final against Collingwood on Saturday

www.afl.com.au

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

I'm hearing Cam Guthrie is 50/50.

 

[Stocks_go_Up]

We sure bringing in so many recently injured players is a good decision

 

[wcadams88]

I'm hearing Cam Guthrie is 50/50.

He trained the whole session in the main group

 

[And_ROOS]

We sure bringing in so many recently injured players is a good decision

The only risk I think is with Cameron but he said on AA night it wasn't as bad as reported and he is right to go.

 

[cat_fanatic]

I'm hearing Cam Guthrie is 50/50.

I hope we rest him and anyone else that's not 100%

We have the depth to cover a few injuries vs the Pies and another two weeks might just be enough for them to reach 100%

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

He trained the whole session in the main group

Good.

 

[catempire]

We can debate the merits of Collingwood’s season all day long, but the simple fact is, given the strength of Geelong’s season, it will be a major failure to not progress in this game.

It would take a below average performance and likely a nightmare goal kicking performance. These outcomes are not unlikely, so I am not already counting this as a win.

But this would be by some distance our worst finals loss in a decade should it happen - maybe only the Freo loss in Geelong would compare. But they had a few champion players that day and Hawkins missed.

Even though the first final is of less importance post Gil’s bye, this would be an utter calamity to drop this one.

Very much agree although I’d say a below average performance and bad kicking is unlikely.

Rational observers, punters and models rightly have Geelong solid favourites.

 

[Nickoo]

This is another example of numbers giving a good picture.
Collingwood just scraped into positive numbers for total quarters won for the season 45/88

Geelong has won 67/88 quarters. A high of 75% the most of any team, which suggests while we’ve had a few big quarters our wins are based on consistent effort. Collingwood numbers suggest relying on concentrated moments (quarters). I prefer our model (method). Bring our best or very near and a single quarter won’t be enough to stop us.

Which is sort of what happened to Port, Saints 2nd time around, Melb, pies, dogs and a few others no doubt. Have these amazing qtrs but still not get over us. It’s interesting coz in almost the close games the various commentary teams were clearly barracking for the opposition. If you watch all these last qtrs there is definitely a pattern to the narrative.


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[Mr Meow]

It has been a goddamn week, is it game day yet?

Yes. We won! Kolo kicked 7 goals from a back pocket.

 

[rocker_oz33]

Literally zero to do with Vline bud..

Most over used word ..

 

[And_ROOS]

Yes. We won! Kolo kicked 7 goals from a back pocket.

Late run at the ̷C̷ Koleman medal/

 

[Tuggacat]

I can't see all of Cameron, Duncan, Stanley, Guthrie lining up for the QF.

I have a feeling Guthrie is the one that won't get up. He's had shoulder issues before and if he's not right he could be a massive liability. He's a fantastic clearance and contested player and that injury will take away a lot of his strengths.

He'd be a big loss.

I would be more worried about Kolo. A number of concussions, his brother out of the game due to concussions. I can see the club taking a conservative approach and not playing him this game. Less of a worry than Cam though as one of Zuthrie/MOC will miss if he plays.

 

[Mad_Hatter]

Most over used word ..

Maybe, but not this time.
Firstly VLine don't own the rail, secondly this is a government and vicroads work, not rail.
So, literally, not in vlines control at all.