Preview QF1 Geelong v Collingwood Sat Sept 3 2022, 435pm @ MCG

[Landgraft]

Check the Link... that one heads under Canberra.

Amateur hour here.

This is the actual trailer, not that it's hard to find.

 

[God Mode]

Previous seasons we had star players on one end and very average players on the other. Geelong are more rounded this year, so we are a great chance to win it IMO..

Absolutely, I've struggled week by week to rank my top 5 players for each game.

 

[barmy44]

Absolutely, I've struggled week by week to rank my top 5 players for each game.

I've found the same thing... I worker under a Judge back in Adleaide first year out of Uni, and he is a mad Geelong fan. We have a phone call after every game.

Often we have struggled to figure this out or agree this season. We have a well rounded team all contributing to good team performances.

And when there has been a stand out, it's someone like Atkins ferociously nailing 1%ers in a 4th quarter that makes the difference.

In previous years, it was some "big name" getting 15 disposals and kicking 3 to turn the game.

We aren't seeing 1 or 2 high 30 possession games from the usual suspects each week that determines how we go like previously.

It's a blanket over 10 who had mid 20s and everyone contributing something.

 

[God Mode]

I've found the same thing... I worker under a Judge back in Adleaide first year out of Uni, and he is a mad Geelong fan. We have a phone call after every game.

Often we have struggled to figure this out or agree this season. We have a well rounded team all contributing to good team performances.

And when there has been a stand out, it's someone like Atkins ferociously nailing 1%ers in a 4th quarter that makes the difference.

In previous years, it was some "big name" getting 15 disposals and kicking 3 to turn the game.

We aren't seeing 1 or 2 high 30 possession games from the usual suspects each week that determines how we go like previously.

It's a blanket over 10 who had mid 20s and everyone contributing something.

100% and the sum of everyone working as a team is greater than the parts. It also gives players like Rohan a much better role of being a 'link in the chain' as opposed to a player we need to kicked 2-3 goals.

 

[D BRIDGE]

100% and the sum of everyone working as a team is greater than the parts. It also gives players like Rohan a much better role of being a 'link in the chain' as opposed to a player we need to kicked 2-3 goals.

Doubt it'll happen but Rohan putting a defensive forward tag on Nick Daicos would be interesting.

Daicos is so slick out of the backline with his run, link-up ability and effective kicking.

Rohan is fast enough to stick close and keep Daicos under pressure more than normal.

 

[Munich]

Thank god we're back to a normal week of waiting.

Has anybody looked at the weather forecast - it's looking grim

 

[God Mode]

Doubt it'll happen but Rohan putting a defensive forward tag on Nick Daicos would be interesting.

Daicos is so slick out of the backline with his run, link-up ability and effective kicking.

Rohan is fast enough to stick close and keep Daicos under pressure more than normal.

It would definitely suit is strengths. Speed, chase and tackle. For such a crucial role, I'd worry that Rohan would have a 15 minute patch where he drops off.

 

[catpremier 07]

Thank god we're back to a normal week of waiting.

Has anybody looked at the weather forecast - it's looking grim

Doesn't look that bad? Says it should be clear game time. Regardless trying to predict weather in Victoria a day out let alone a week is unlikely haha.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Anyone in favour of the pre-finals bye needs only to read this thread. I mean, we're seriously discussing the etymology of the phrase 's**t the bed'. Worse, it has been a bloody interesting discussion!

But FFS, what do the AFL think this is, bush week? We're not here to * spiders - get the finals under way! Interest is running dry as a dead dingo's donger right now.

And it means neutral fans start to check out. So much media attention lost.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Doubt it'll happen but Rohan putting a defensive forward tag on Nick Daicos would be interesting.

Daicos is so slick out of the backline with his run, link-up ability and effective kicking.

Rohan is fast enough to stick close and keep Daicos under pressure more than normal.

I think close might be better for that role. Can run off and link up himself

 

[Munich]

Doesn't look that bad? Says it should be clear game time. Regardless trying to predict weather in Victoria a day out let alone a week is unlikely haha.

I looked yesterday at it was 12 degrees and rain.

True though it's likely to be fine

 

[barmy44]

To be honest with how many moving parts a single footy team has, let alone trying to accomodate for the opposition, it's incredible that there are any recognisable game plans/styles that are consistently implemented over the course of the season. Extremely complex systems processing a ridiculous array of information to make split second decisions, all for a game of football...

But I do think that if you just take the raw score view then you're at risk of missing something. Obviously some of what I said is taken to the most absurd length possible, but I think that if you are a Collingwood and you have this high degree of efficiency both in attack and defence then you might not be so concerned about volume of possession going to the opposition, and tight situations become more comfortable because you have a system that is better at seizing or denying critical opportunities. I definitely don't buy into the idea that all of those games were effectively 50/50 situations, even though they were more susceptible to small freak events than if they had built a bigger margin. And some of them would still have been, or near enough, of course! But as someone who has always enjoyed building 'skews' for particular match-ups or game states, I do like to speculate and theorise.

Sorry to harp on (you may have lost interest, and maybe others reading have as well - sorry if so), but I can't get my head around "sequencing" AFL football with scenario training in any practical way.

Just been thinking about it while chasing my 2 year old around a park.

Go is turn based, I take a move then you take a move influenced by mine, etc.

An AI can sacrifice immediate game position because it can analyses millions or billions of data points instantly and accurately, and move accordingly: "I have 100,000 moves open to me, and if I do this my human opponent will likely take one of these high value immediate moves and I'll fall behind now but increase my eventual win probability by X%".

Sports like baseball and cricket routinely sequence - I'll pitch to this area at this speed, then that, then that and stack the field on the right side because this batter hits 90% in that direction and if they get lucky and hit the other way, it's 80% likely to be a ground ball which will limit any damage if they manage to execute to a base or two on the balance of probailities which doesnt matter because the next batter is likely to...".

In fact, every single "at bat" is considered like this. They have detailed scouting reports on every batter against left and righht handed pitchers, in that specific ballpark etc.

It's one guy executing one skill they are trained to do against one guy executing one skill and we have their career stats available to assess and after each execution play resets.

Bowlers in cricket often bowl an over hoping that if they execute properly, the 6th ball will be this one and the batter will be more likely to edge one.

But in footy... the sequences you'd need to have trained perfectly, with unique ground sizes and 17 opposition teams that broadly play differently and are made up of 18 individuals you can't reliably assess at any one time to consider... and a ball that could bounce at right angles. And if sequence B fails, someone has to analyse the weather and how the opponent are playing etc to switch from planned sequence C to sequence E to get their probability stacking back on track and then communicate that effectively to all 18 players.

The calculations and considerations in an AFL match are beyond any mathematician in history. Probably beyond any AI so far conceived.

In cricket or baseball or Go etc, if a sequence fails you can reset and reassess.

It is difficult to imagine how Collingwoods VFL/AFL record in wins by 12 points or less and wins by single digits is in game training to ensure all games are close but they can stack their scenarios in such a way that they can reliably increase their win percentage probability in the dying minutes to any degree of accuracy or reliability that youd build your approach to the season on it.

It's super interesting though, and your posts on it have been great to read - but I can buy Collingwood have trained for close ones generally (especially when they kept having them) but not that it's beneficial to concede points or focus less on scoreboard advantage and just stack probabilities to ensure single digits results go your way.

You'd probably be at least as likely to finish bottom 4 as top 4.

Collingwood won 16 games and I see them as a dangerous opponent next week. But they couldn't reliably replicate this season IMO. They needed a lot of results to fall their way, and they did. Some likely by training / execution, others by things like the bounce of the ball.

But it all doesn't matter now - however they did it, they are our top 4 QF opponent this week.

 

[catscratchfever]

I hate bye weeks.

Patience. Rome didn’t burn down in a day.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Patience. Rome didn’t burn down in a day.

Not with that attitude

 

[goyoucatters]

I think you inadvertently hit the nail on the head oops. It is something that is totally inexplicable and unexpected, which is the point isn't it?

Or something disastrous and very low probability - such as going to bed fine and dandy and then, you know the rest.

Sorry for going back to this again. I get that some here will probably end up quite disturbed that there's yet more posts regarding this inanity.

But, as I understand it, the intended meaning of the metaphor has less to do with something happening that is 'totally inexplicable and unexpected', and much more to do with ridiculing those who are seen to have massively underperformed in their moment of truth.

Again, then, what does lying in bed and emptying your bowels have to do with that? It's no 'moment of truth' to lie down in bed. And anyone who then excretes their waste products in said bed is surely more entitled to our sympathy than our derision.

Anyway, it's becoming more and more apparent that I just need to accept it is utterly bizarre. Because despite everyone's best efforts to assist here, the development of the phrase and its obtuse association with a pitiful lack of competitiveness in a sporting contest is clearly the most 'inexplicable' matter of them all here.

 

[Spearman]

Sorry to harp on (you may have lost interest, and maybe others reading have as well - sorry if so), but I can't get my head around "sequencing" AFL football with scenario training in any practical way.

Just been thinking about it while chasing my 2 year old around a park.

Go is turn based, I take a move then you take a move influenced by mine, etc.

An AI can sacrifice immediate game position because it can analyses millions or billions of data points instantly and accurately, and move accordingly: "I have 100,000 moves open to me, and if I do this my human opponent will likely take one of these high value immediate moves and I'll fall behind now but increase my eventual win probability by X%".

Sports like baseball and cricket routinely sequence - I'll pitch to this area at this speed, then that, then that and stack the field on the right side because this batter hits 90% in that direction and if they get lucky and hit the other way, it's 80% likely to be a ground ball which will limit any damage if they manage to execute to a base or two on the balance of probailities which doesnt matter because the next batter is likely to...".

In fact, every single "at bat" is considered like this. They have detailed scouting reports on every batter against left and righht handed pitchers, in that specific ballpark etc.

It's one guy executing one skill they are trained to do against one guy executing one skill and we have their career stats available to assess and after each execution play resets.

Bowlers in cricket often bowl an over hoping that if they execute properly, the 6th ball will be this one and the batter will be more likely to edge one.

But in footy... the sequences you'd need to have trained perfectly, with unique ground sizes and 17 opposition teams that broadly play differently and are made up of 18 individuals you can't reliably assess at any one time to consider... and a ball that could bounce at right angles. And if sequence B fails, someone has to analyse the weather and how the opponent are playing etc to switch from planned sequence C to sequence E to get their probability stacking back on track and then communicate that effectively to all 18 players.

The calculations and considerations in an AFL match are beyond any mathematician in history. Probably beyond any AI so far conceived.

In cricket or baseball or Go etc, if a sequence fails you can reset and reassess.

It is difficult to imagine how Collingwoods VFL/AFL record in wins by 12 points or less and wins by single digits is in game training to ensure all games are close but they can stack their scenarios in such a way that they can reliably increase their win percentage probability in the dying minutes to any degree of accuracy or reliability that youd build your approach to the season on it.

It's super interesting though, and your posts on it have been great to read - but I can buy Collingwood have trained for close ones generally (especially when they kept having them) but not that it's beneficial to concede points or focus less on scoreboard advantage and just stack probabilities to ensure single digits results go your way.

You'd probably be at least as likely to finish bottom 4 as top 4.

Collingwood won 16 games and I see them as a dangerous opponent next week. But they couldn't reliably replicate this season IMO. They needed a lot of results to fall their way, and they did. Some likely by training / execution, others by things like the bounce of the ball.

But it all doesn't matter now - however they did it, they are our top 4 QF opponent this week.

Pretty impressive multi-tasking

 

[nohairandfair]

Sorry for going back to this again. I get that some here will probably end up quite disturbed that there's yet more posts regarding this inanity.

But, as I understand it, the intended meaning of the metaphor has less to do with something happening that is 'totally inexplicable and unexpected', and much more to do with ridiculing those who are seen to have massively underperformed in their moment of truth.

Again, then, what does lying in bed and emptying your bowels have to do with that? It's no 'moment of truth' to lie down in bed. And anyone who then excretes their waste products in said bed is surely more entitled to our sympathy than our derision.

Anyway, it's becoming more and more apparent that I just need to accept it is utterly bizarre. Because despite everyone's best efforts to assist here, the development of the phrase and its obtuse association with a pitiful lack of competitiveness in a sporting contest is clearly the most 'inexplicable' matter of them all here.

Maybe there's some sort of duality in meaning. Inexplicably losing basic bodily function and then the embarrassment of lying in your own excrement... sort of like egg on your face but a bit more pungent and nasty.

 

[barmy44]

Sorry for going back to this again. I get that some here will probably end up quite disturbed that there's yet more posts regarding this inanity.

But, as I understand it, the intended meaning of the metaphor has less to do with something happening that is 'totally inexplicable and unexpected', and much more to do with ridiculing those who are seen to have massively underperformed in their moment of truth.

Again, then, what does lying in bed and emptying your bowels have to do with that? It's no 'moment of truth' to lie down in bed. And anyone who then excretes their waste products in said bed is surely more entitled to our sympathy than our derision.

Anyway, it's becoming more and more apparent that I just need to accept it is utterly bizarre. Because despite everyone's best efforts to assist here, the development of the phrase and its obtuse association with a pitiful lack of competitiveness in a sporting contest is clearly the most 'inexplicable' matter of them all here.

Maybe the key is that the phrase is "shit THE bed", not "shit your bed".

That it is THE bed and not just your bed indicates it is probably a pretty special bed.

So I see it one of two ways... you're either demonstrating sound sleep hygiene in a major study, and blow that demoing the worst way possible.

Or, you cross over and wake up in the clouds. Heavenly harp music, everyone you've ever loved and lost. God - not a single denominational God, but one representing all religions, all people, even the atheists - welcomes you. They place an arm around you, and you instantly know all the joys you'll experience. But first, the final sleep you will ever need.

God takes you into the heavenly bedroom. And there you see it - THE bed. You lie down. You reach a new level of relaxation you never even knew was possible.

As awareness gives way to a dream that is at once both singular in the vision it presents and covering the reality of every possible wish and desire that ever crossed your mind, no matter how briefly and no matter how young you were at the time, you relax just slightly too much.

You shit THE bed.

God pretends they don't care, and it happens to everyone. But it doesn't. You're the first.

You've ruined the only set of 1,200 thread count cotton sheets in heaven.

You spend eternity walking past archangels that snicker every time you pass.

You had one chance to lie in THE bed. And you shat that bed.

Or it's just a daffy saying that soon becomes absurd the more you try apply it to next week's Geelong final.

 

[_Game_]

Anyone with doubt over Camerons hamstring, go have a look at his instagram story. He just leaped into the pond on his property with a bit of a run up. You are not doing that with a dodgy hamstring.

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[goyoucatters]

Maybe the key is that the phrase is "s**t THE bed", not "s**t your bed".

That it is THE bed and not just your bed indicates it is probably a pretty special bed.

So I see it one of two ways... you're either demonstrating sound sleep hygiene in a major study, and blow that demoing the worst way possible.

Or, you cross over and wake up in the clouds. Heavenly harp music, everyone you've ever loved and lost. God - not a single denominational God, but one representing all religions, all people, even the atheists - welcomes you. They place an arm around you, and you instantly know all the joys you'll experience. But first, the final sleep you will ever need.

God takes you into the heavenly bedroom. And there you see it - THE bed. You lie down. You reach a new level of relaxation you never even knew was possible.

As awareness gives way to a dream that is at once both singular in the vision it presents and covering the reality of every possible wish and desire that ever crossed your mind, no matter how briefly and no matter how young you were at the time, you relax just slightly too much.

You s**t THE bed.

God pretends they don't care, and it happens to everyone. But it doesn't. You're the first.

You've ruined the only set of 1,200 thread count cotton sheets in heaven.

You spend eternity walking past archangels that snicker every time you pass.

You had one chance to lie in THE bed. And you shat that bed.

Or it's just a daffy saying that soon becomes absurd the more you try apply it to next week's Geelong final.

Absolutely. As evidenced by this latest post of yours, where intricate detail has been provided around the imagery of rest and refreshment that is understandably inherent in occupying a bed. Which is surely the complete antithesis of the extreme physical and psychological exertion involved in attempting to triumph in a brutal sporting contest at the highest level.

It's actually hard to think of two activities in which a human can engage that have less in common with each other. And yet this is supposedly the best way of neatly describing what happens when a team chronically underperforms in a highly pressured environment.

Ludicrous.

 

[barmy44]

Absolutely. As evidenced by this latest post of yours, where intricate detail has been provided around the imagery of rest and refreshment that is understandably inherent in occupying a bed. Which is surely the complete antithesis of the extreme physical and psychological exertion involved in attempting to triumph in a brutal sporting contest at the highest level.

It's actually hard to think of two activities in which a human can engage that have less in common with each other. And yet this is supposedly the best way of neatly describing what happens when a team chronically underperforms in a highly pressured environment.

Ludicrous.

When you're taking a set shot to win a knock out final, you want to be relaxed. But not too relaxed.

When you have one chance to sleep in the bed, you want to be relaxed. But not too relaxed.

Regardless of it being a bit ludicrous or juvenile, I always get a chuckle out of reading it whenever it's used.

And I always know exactly what is meant by it.

Quality expression, IMO. And I've quite enjoyed how it's been dissected. But yeah, I'll leave it there now.

 

[goyoucatters]

When you're taking a set shot to win a knock out final, you want to be relaxed. But not too relaxed.

When you have one chance to sleep in the bed, you want to be relaxed. But not too relaxed.

Another brilliant example of how nonsensical this metaphor really is. Who ever heard of only having one chance to sleep in a bed? And of needing to moderate your levels of relaxation to be able to properly sleep on that occasion?

Absurd.

Quality expression, IMO.

Couldn't disagree more. Yet each to their own, of course.

And now back to another week of interminable waiting for our finals campaign to actually begin.

 

[barmy44]

Another brilliant example of how nonsensical this metaphor really is. Who ever heard of only having one chance to sleep in a bed? And of needing to moderate your levels of relaxation to be able to properly sleep on that occasion?

Absurd.

Couldn't disagree more. Yet each to their own, of course.

And now back to another week of interminable waiting for our finals campaign to actually begin.

I think we have our wires crossed here... what you're saying actually makes perfect sense. It shows how strange language can be.

The phrase "don't over egg the pudding" (which funnily enough is what some of us in here are doing with this shit the bed analysis) doesn't only apply to circumstances that sort of match those encountered when making a pudding.

I was referencing my tongue in cheek example of sleeping in God's bed, before an eternity of whatever it is they do in Heaven - with the reference to "one chance" etc.

Absurdity was what I was going for, hoping some people might get a chuckle out of it. I know no one has one chance to sleep in a / the bed.

I'm not fighting for the expression, was just trying to have a bit of fun here during bye week.

I thought this whole thing was just a bit of a laugh, pulling apart a throwaway line to the nth degree. so I tried to take it to an absurd length.

The English language is full of expressions that make zero sense if taken apart literally word for word.

There doesn't need to be an equivalence drawn between the acts involved. It's just a pretty crude way of saying don't stuff it up.

No one goes to bed hoping to shit it, and no team goes into a knock out final and hopes to blow it.

In both cases, it's a bad outcome best avoided.

 

[JohnZ]

Thank god we're back to a normal week of waiting.

Has anybody looked at the weather forecast - it's looking grim

yesterday was perfect footy weather. shame

still think if the AFL insists on having a bye it should be between the prelim and GF to allow for any injuries/concussions to come good.

In the bye week, hold a state of origin match with the 16 teams who missed out.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

yesterday was perfect footy weather. shame

still think if the AFL insists on having a bye it should be between the prelim and GF to allow for any injuries/concussions to come good.

In the bye week, hold a state of origin match with the 16 teams who missed out.

That would actually be pretty awesome