Preview Qualifying Final - Sydney Swans vs GWS Giants

[Bloods86]

Cleary has had a good couple of games for an 18 yr old, but that's it, wasn't exceptional to the point of being undroppable.

Would be an absolute mare taking a 3 gamer into finals. The Campbell theory makes more sense, albeit Adam's wont be getting dropped he's an absolute bull at the bottom of the contest, we can't afford to lose that he's one of the only ones capable of doing it.

I think the pressure forward role is non negotiable, so I'm looking at who can fill it. For me, based on availability that's Cleary or Campbell, maybe Florent based on recent weeks. Fox, though less of a goal threat than any of these.

For me it's not Adams being replaced or put out by these guys, it's Heeney returning and the cascading impact that other returning players have on Adams midfield time, that means he won't have the opportunity to impact in the way that people are talking about.

If we need the extra mid rotation and he just plays low TOG ok, but he'd have to come at the expense of someone else. Someone simply has to remain as a pressure forward.

 

[zyzzbruh]

I think the pressure forward role is non negotiable, so I'm looking at who can fill it. For me, based on availability that's Cleary or Campbell, maybe Florent based on recent weeks. Fox, though less of a goal threat than any of these.

For me it's not Adams being replaced or put out by these guys, it's Heeney returning and the cascading impact that other returning players have on Adams midfield time, that means he won't have the opportunity to impact in the way that people are talking about.

If we need the extra mid rotation and he just plays low TOG ok, but he'd have to come at the expense of someone else. Someone simply has to remain as a pressure forward.

Wouldn't it just be status quo as per middle of the season when we were fully fit? Papley comes in and covers the pressure forward role. The only difference between then and now is Wicks has been replaced with Parker. Adam's stays in his role as per 98% of the season.

The only spanner in the works is an in form Campbell. At best i think he replaces fox as sub.

 

[caesar88]

Drop Lloyd? I want Adams & Cleary in the team but can't see who could be dropped for them apart from Amartey/Mcdonald/Campbell/Lloyd. I don't think we're going away from the 3 talls, so Amartey & Mcdonald are safe, while Campbell is another goal scoring option which we need with our inconsistent fwds. I don't know what's Lloyds role with Mills in defence & Roberts ripping form.

Lloyd doesn't deserve to be dropped, he's been good. However I would not be against it if it meant keeping an extra pressure player in the team. I think it is that important in a final.

 

[Kbroome]

The love affair with a pressure forward is just downright funny and illogical at this point.
1. The pressure Forwards we have are not up to AFL standard
2. We know Finals is about a contested in tight spaces game where contested players like Adams work best rather than pure speed players
3. Most of our turnovers happen in the middle 3rd of the ground due to the speed of our midfield rather than the speed of our forwards
4. Scoreboard pressure is much more important than pressure in the forward 3rd, especially with the way the Swans game style

 

[Bloods86]

Lloyd doesn't deserve to be dropped, he's been good. However I would not be against it if it meant keeping an extra pressure player in the team. I think it is that important in a final.

Yeah, he's the other one that if Jmac comes back, with Roberts in form, and Florent improving/back in form, might have to be looked at.

Undeserved, and I'd be spewing if he missed out on a flag, so important he's been for so long.

 

[caesar88]

The love affair with a pressure forward is just downright funny and illogical at this point.
1. The pressure Forwards we have are not up to AFL standard
2. We know Finals is about a contested in tight spaces game where contested players like Adams work best rather than pure speed players
3. Most of our turnovers happen in the middle 3rd of the ground due to the speed of our midfield rather than the speed of our forwards
4. Scoreboard pressure is much more important than pressure in the forward 3rd, especially with the way the Swans game style

But how do you think most of the turnovers and the scores are created?

 

[Bloods86]

The love affair with a pressure forward is just downright funny and illogical at this point.
1. The pressure Forwards we have are not up to AFL standard
2. We know Finals is about a contested in tight spaces game where contested players like Adams work best rather than pure speed players
3. Most of our turnovers happen in the middle 3rd of the ground due to the speed of our midfield rather than the speed of our forwards
4. Scoreboard pressure is much more important than pressure in the forward 3rd, especially with the way the Swans game style

I guess it must be funny and illogical if you say so.

1. Except we've had some good showings recently.
2. Affecting rebound is also important given your point in 3, the speed of our mids.
3. Not sure how this is relevant when the player mostly discussed is Adams. If anything, helps my point.
4. Forward/rebound pressure leads to scoreboard pressure. Maybe an area we should not make worse.

 

[Bloods86]

Wouldn't it just be status quo as per middle of the season when we were fully fit? Papley comes in and covers the pressure forward role. The only difference between then and now is Wicks has been replaced with Parker. Adam's stays in his role as per 98% of the season.

The only spanner in the works is an in form Campbell. At best i think he replaces fox as sub.

Papley can create pressure, though we've not rated it as enough, given we've tried Wicks, Fox etc down there for that reason, in addition to Papley.

 

[Bloods86]

But how do you think most of the turnovers and the scores are created?

Scoreboard pressure

 

[caesar88]

Scoreboard pressure

Pressure in general!

Footy in the 2020s is as much about making the opposition team look bad as it is about your team playing good.

 

[ashep]

Pretty excited to see Parker and Papley in the forward line together. Whether due to role or ability, Wicks wasn't a target up forward so he didn't really need to be tightly covered by an opponent.

Despite Parker's lack of speed, if you give him any space at all, he will mark and goal so he needs to be paid attention to. Should give Paps more room to operate.

Think he might be able to have a day out and crumb a few.

 

[Dubai Quacker]

Pressure in general!

Footy in the 2020s is as much about making the opposition team look bad as it is about your team playing good.

Point of order:

“Pressure” is sooooooo 2023.

Nowadays it’s all about “contest”.

 

[RedBloodBlackSwan]

I think the biggest issue is that we have been unable to settle on a 7th forward. Wicks, Fox, Corey, Cleary, resting mids. Coulda, shoulda too late now. Make the best of it.

Yep, persisted too long with Fox upfront. Needed to try Campbell forward earlier.

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

This looks like a very winnable final for us but I wonder how heavily our failure to beat GWS in a final will weigh on the group going into this game. The 2021 loss still hurts and I'm sure it will be on Heeney's mind too.

Winning streaks are made to be broken.

 

[Kbroome]

So we want "pressure" yet Adams in the last 5 games has averaged 3.4 tackles and 14 pressure acts & Campbell has averaged 3.5 tackles and 14.2 pressure acts.

Campbell is going better with his DE but that is in large part due to his much lower CP%, and even last week Adams went at 82% DE.

Adams has much more experience than Campbell does, on top of that he has 3x the hardball and ground ball gets which will be critical in finals given the contested nature of it.

Adams style of play is more suited to the clinches of finals whereas Campbell is more suited to regular season.

 

[Bloods86]

Pressure in general!

Footy in the 2020s is as much about making the opposition team look bad as it is about your team playing good.

It was an attempt at humour

 

[RedBloodBlackSwan]

What an awesome time to be a Swans fan. Minor premiers. First final up against our arch rivals in a packed SCG, on what will likely be a balmy spring evening. Too many good players to fit into the team. Savour the moment I say!

I think this is the first game of the year where almost everyone concedes there is no obvious best 22 + sub. There are so many variables around team structure, state of players returning, how to use the sub, how players may respond to being sub or missing out - both for this game and remaining games in the final series.

My view is that we should be optimistic / aggressive and pick what we think would be the best 22 if everyone was playing at their very best. We have a back-up game if things go astray against GWS, and we can also hedge the risk somewhat against GWS by picking a sub who can best come in early if needed to enable a change of structure.

What do I think this means?

1. Bring in Papley and Macca at the same time - trust they won’t be too sketchy / can work their way into it relatively quickly. We need them humming for the prelim and GF.
2. Stick with the three tall forwards structure - back them in to compete effectively, clunk their marks and convert their goals.
3. Make a choice on who misses out on first 22 between Campbell, Parker and Adams based on how we want to play the game. Really tough call here, but I reckon we don’t want to have to rely on a Parker-type to win. I think we want swift ball movement, fast runners, forward pressure and smart clean hands.
4. Parker then plays sub, with the option of a tactical substitution early on in the game if things aren’t going to plan. We could swing out Amartey if three talls aren’t working, or a fast player if we are getting smashed in the contest, or a small player if we need more marking power. The other benefit of making Parker sub is that he will come on with a point to prove. He will also be fresh, so his explosive power will be more impactful and his lack of pace will be less of an issue.

Very hard decision though. Parker deserves to start.

 

[Kiama Chris]

Yep, perished too long with Fox upfront. Needed to try Campbell forward earlier.

I'm a fan of Foxy but that role has never been a success with Bell, Fox even with Hayward. You can see how much more successful Hayward has been playing a more attacking role.
Wicks played a different role as does JJ and did Clamps. Cleary and Campbell have also played differently, Cleary more like Wicks and Campbell more like Gulden's original role at HHF.
I hope that Horse has abandoned it.
Fox is capable of playing a straight HFF role but not as well as Hayward and possibly Campbell. He's better as a defender but with Mills back there is unlikely to be in the 22.

 

[Bloods86]

So we want "pressure" yet Adams in the last 5 games has averaged 3.4 tackles and 14 pressure acts & Campbell has averaged 3.5 tackles and 14.2 pressure acts.

Campbell is going better with his DE but that is in large part due to his much lower CP%, and even last week Adams went at 82% DE.

Adams has much more experience than Campbell does, on top of that he has 3x the hardball and ground ball gets which will be critical in finals given the contested nature of it.

Adams style of play is more suited to the clinches of finals whereas Campbell is more suited to regular season.

Were they playing the same role?

No.

It's a bit easier to get pressure acts (given how the stat is recorded) and be in a position to tackle, when you have the ball thrown or bounced in the air, when in closer proximity to your opponent, several opponents in fact.

If you watch the recent games, rather than relying on stats comparisons between players in different roles/positions that sound good, you will see Cleary and Campbell pressure or attack at the footy resulting in scoreboard pressure as you call it.

What these guys can do and also can't be measured by pressure acts and tackles, something Wicks didn't always get credit for, is sticking near opponents so they aren't passed to, corralling opponents (but not right up close) to prevent run or leading into the area etc. Not everything can be evaluated by stats, especially if you're not even comparing like for like.

If you want an extra inside mid - it's Adams easily.

If you want someone up forward or around the ground, outside of stoppages, to cover the ground and create pressure, it's Cleary then Campbell actually, though I think the latter can do better if that's their full time role (added bonus of better kicking) and is more experienced.

And it's not even between these guys. It's Heeney replacing Adams for me, midfielder swap. As well as the cascading impact of others returning, on Adams midfield %.

 

[Bloods86]

Your a Wicks lover therefore your thoughts become irrelevant, Team has shown that with or without Wicks the major result and outcome i would say gets better with Parker over Wicks. Therefore proving imo that this whole we need manic pressure is just dead wrong. And your also forgetting that Papley literally is better than either of those small forwards you talk about and we have Juzzy returning who is the quickest player in the whole squad.

Going to ignore the immature bits.

I'm not sure you can argue we have been better with Parker instead of Wicks, based on results, but I don't think that's the deciding factor there anyway. Different players, different roles.

Papley certainly kicks more goals and cameos in midfield. We're back to only talking about scoreboard pressure again as if it comes out of nowhere, so I don't think there's any point continuing.

If you want to play Jmac at half forward cool, that's not where he usually plays though.

 

[Kiama Chris]

Your a Wicks lover therefore your thoughts become irrelevant, Team has shown that with or without Wicks the major result and outcome i would say gets better with Parker over Wicks. Therefore proving imo that this whole we need manic pressure is just dead wrong. And your also forgetting that Papley literally is better than either of those small forwards you talk about and we have Juzzy returning who is the quickest player in the whole squad.

Bloods86 is an experienced poster with considered opinions on the game. We disagree from time to time but he is NEVER irrelevant.

 

[Bloods86]

Bloods86 is an experienced poster with considered opinions on the game. We disagree from time to time but he is NEVER irrelevant.

Experienced or incessant, who can tell, but thank you.

 

[Kbroome]

Going to ignore the immature bits.

I'm not sure you can argue we have been better with Parker instead of Wicks, based on results, but I don't think that's the deciding factor there anyway. Different players, different roles.

Papley certainly kicks more goals and cameos in midfield. We're back to only talking about scoreboard pressure again as if it comes out of nowhere, so I don't think there's any point continuing.

If you want to play Jmac at half forward cool, that's not where he usually plays though.

Simply put we have had this whole discussion over Parker v Wicks the whole season and Parker has put a lot of the Phantom "pressure' posters to shame because of his output and even out tackling Wicks on per game statistics even though he has a greater % of sub to game ratio.

JMac comes in for Campbell to play as a winger and Papley replaces Cleary, Heeney in for Fox, McCartin in for Francis and then Lloyd moves to the sub role given that Roberts is better at half back than him and Errol Mcinerney and Florent are the 3 wingers

 

[Nuggetz]

Guys like adams, parker, campbell, cleary etc position will be decided on match ups & team balance.

Do we want another cover if Cunningham goes down, then it favours Campbell selection a bit more. Do the coaches want another contested player in the front half & midfield then they'll lean towards Adams.

At the very least those guys are all in reasonable or great form which is important.

 

[Bloods86]

Simply put we have had this whole discussion over Parker v Wicks the whole season and Parker has put a lot of the Phantom "pressure' posters to shame because of his output and even out tackling Wicks on per game statistics even though he has a greater % of sub to game ratio.

JMac comes in for Campbell to play as a winger and Papley replaces Cleary, Heeney in for Fox, McCartin in for Francis and then Lloyd moves to the sub role given that Roberts is better at half back than him and Errol Mcinerney and Florent are the 3 wingers

I can't argue if you think you've won a debate that I've not really engaged in. I wouldn't debate Parker vs Wicks as a direct comparison really, they are different types of players (which I distinctly remember saying around the time Parker came back). There are reasons, as I've given, as to why a part time mid might have higher numbers, and why stats are not always the full picture. And I've not called for Wicks to come back in since he was dropped...

Agree with most of the changes you mention, but I'd keep Campbell in for the QF, wouldn't bring in both Paps and Jmac in the same final. If Paps plays and creates pressure, then we could think about "replacing" Campbell (or Lloyd even) for Jmac in the next game.