Preview Qualifying Final - Sydney Swans vs GWS Giants

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On one hand - ****ing awesome

On the other - AFL: "see you didn't need the Friday night to sell out huurr duuuur"
I don’t think there was ever a question around the game selling out. It’s more about it getting attention on TV from those casually interested but possibly doing other things on a Saturday afternoon.
 

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Clearances are kind of like contested marks.

They're a secondary goal that usually (but not always) indicate success.

For example a lot of people get hung up on contested marks for KPF.

Taylor Walker (641 goals)
Jonathon Brown (594 goals)
Travis Cloke (452 goals)
Matthew Pavlich (700 goals)

All take more marks on average than Lance Franklin (1066 goals) , who's kicked 400 more goals than them.

Clearances are the same thing. Teams listed below by clearance and then ladder position. Those in the top 8 are bolded.

1. Lions (5th)
2. Blues
(8th)
3. Dockers (10th)
4. Bulldogs (6th)
5. Cats
(3rd)
6. Crows (15th)
7. Power (2nd)
8. Magpies (9th)
9. Kangaroos (17th)
10. Giants (4th)
11. Hawks
(7th)
12. Swans
(1st)
13. Suns (13th)
14. Bombers (11th)
15. Eagles (16th)
16. Demons (14th)
17. Saints (12th)
18. Tigers (18th)

The second half of this ladder does look like lower clearances = lower ladder position, but the Crows are a better clearance team than more than half the comp, and 3 of the top 4. and still finished bottom 4.

Clearances are not really a measure of how successful a team will be. Our midfield group operates a lot better with Grundy in it and it's not because of the clearances.
 
Clearances are kind of like contested marks.

They're a secondary goal that usually (but not always) indicate success.

For example a lot of people get hung up on contested marks for KPF.

Taylor Walker (641 goals)
Jonathon Brown (594 goals)
Travis Cloke (452 goals)
Matthew Pavlich (700 goals)

All take more marks on average than Lance Franklin (1066 goals) , who's kicked 400 more goals than them.

Clearances are the same thing. Teams listed below by clearance and then ladder position. Those in the top 8 are bolded.

1. Lions (5th)
2. Blues (8th)
3. Dockers (10th)
4. Bulldogs (6th)
5. Cats (3rd)
6. Crows (15th)
7. Power (2nd)
8. Magpies (9th)
9. Kangaroos (17th)
10. Giants (4th)
11. Hawks (7th)
12. Swans (1st)
13. Suns (13th)
14. Bombers (11th)
15. Eagles (16th)
16. Demons (14th)
17. Saints (12th)
18. Tigers (18th)

The second half of this ladder does look like lower clearances = lower ladder position, but the Crows are a better clearance team than more than half the comp, and 3 of the top 4. and still finished bottom 4.

Clearances are not really a measure of how successful a team will be. Our midfield group operates a lot better with Grundy in it and it's not because of the clearances.
I think its generally really poor to just look at clearances gained because it can massively sway the statistics to sides that don't have many stoppages as you can see with this first image look at how the bottom sides for clearances are all down the bottom for ruck contests from which clearances occur. Screenshot 2024-08-28 at 1.39.43 PM.png

A better look would be at the clearance differential because this mitigates this bias: Screenshot 2024-08-28 at 1.41.24 PM.png
 

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I think its generally really poor to just look at clearances gained because it can massively sway the statistics to sides that don't have many stoppages as you can see with this first image look at how the bottom sides for clearances are all down the bottom for ruck contests from which clearances occur. View attachment 2094596

A better look would be at the clearance differential because this mitigates this bias: View attachment 2094597
Am I interpreting correctly that this means we basically break even for clearances?

If so, I can live with that and back our mids to be more damaging with the half we win than the opposition with their half.
 
Love how quickly this sold out (albeit I feel for those that missed out).

AFL house will be wondering how they can sneakily move this game to the MCG so they can sell more tickets.
 
Am I interpreting correctly that this means we basically break even for clearances?

If so, I can live with that and back our mids to be more damaging with the half we win than the opposition with their half.
Yep we break even with our clearances but our points per clearance is the best in the comp or was #1 in the comp very recently so we are the most damaging off clearance. Quality over Quantity. Also statistics have shown that the Swans are competitive even when they are a -1 clearance differential or better, using the link below you can find it pretty easily

 
Yep we break even with our clearances but our points per clearance is the best in the comp or was #1 in the comp very recently so we are the most damaging off clearance. Quality over Quantity. Also statistics have shown that the Swans are competitive even when they are a -1 clearance differential or better, using the link below you can find it pretty easily

This.

The secret is quality clearances. It's how you can get the ball from the inside to the outside in a way that then lets you use it effectively, or at least have another contest. And it's a bit about taking risks once you get the ball from clearance.

Freo have lots of players who are great at getting first hands on the ball and then running around looking for a "safe" option to hot potato it to, often getting it back a short while later. It's one of the reasons why the likes of Serong and Brayshaw rack up such large possession counts. (Note: They are good players, just not as good as their possession counts imply.) I actually think Freo do have the talent and speed on the outside to move the ball aggressively. It's just they (or their coach) have a risk-averse mindset. They'd rather retain possession than move the ball quickly.

When you watch us at full flight we make heaps of mistakes. We might groan at some of them, but it's part of the deal. The equation is just to take those risks enough times that enough pay off. And not get swamped in stodge.

I think getting swamped by other teams was one of the reasons the team started running less, taking fewer risks, being more conservative in the second half of the season. That third quarter, especially, against Collingwood was all stodge. And then watch what happened when they flicked the switch midway through the final quarter - run, handball, run, handball. All high risk stuff prone to go wrong, yet done with enough verve and panache that enough got through.

(Sorry, got carried away a bit with those last two paragraphs. They don't have whole lot to do with the specific topic of clearances.)
 
McKirdy wrote a 'Taylor Adams will probably get dropped' article this afternoon

Included this from training today (feat. Paddy):

1724832182081.png
 
But I already told everyone you're coming and catered accordingly

The least you could do is reimburse me for the food you won't eat and the topless barmaids you won't enjoy
If those people were coming because I was going to be there I think you need to question the quality and character of the attendees.
 
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