Preview Rd 1 Geelong V StKilda Sat 16th Mar 2024 730pm @ GMHBA

[feelinfeline]

Even our second tier guys like Knevitt, Neale, Edwards, Humphries & Mullin are better placed than a lot of what we had in that timeline.

I'm puzzled how Knevitt is suddenly now a 'second-tier guy'. I don't remember him being talked about that way last season.

Has he had a bad preseason? Or have others had much better ones? He didn't even seem to get a look-in in the AFL preseason games.

Mystifying, I've got to say.

I would hope he'd play at least 10 games this year or he may look elsewhere next year, with some justification. He's contracted for next year, but that wouldn't stop him asking.

Anyway, presumably with injuries he'll get a chance at some point, so hopefully he grabs it.

 

[catempire]

The notable thing that's changed is we finished 12th last year.

Refer 2015.

 

[calder_daddy]

I was told by the person who served me at the Cats Shop that the ticket I have allows me to get in on a '1st in, best dressed' basis - in other words, I can take whatever free seat I can grab when I walk in. I haven't been to a game in years - hope I wasn't told a crock or misunderstood her drift

General admin you should be fine but wouldn’t surprise me if they only offer standing room.
Goodluck

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Can you make a version of games played that year?

Probably after I get the kids to bed

 

[Catastrophe!]

I'm puzzled how Knevitt is suddenly now a 'second-tier guy'. I don't remember him being talked about that way last season.

Has he had a bad preseason? Or have others had much better ones? He didn't even seem to get a look-in in the AFL preseason games.

Mystifying, I've got to say.

I would hope he'd play at least 10 games this year or he may look elsewhere next year, with some justification. He's contracted for next year, but that wouldn't stop him asking.

Anyway, presumably with injuries he'll get a chance at some point, so hopefully he grabs it.

He played in our first practice game against Carlton. Others have had better pre-seasons, and he mainly plays wing at this point of his development - where we have a ton of options.

We also have way more availability than last year. He'll play at points this year, but there is some serious young talent emerging that might keep him down the pecking order for a while. If he's good enough, he'll perform and find his way in later on in the year.

 

[feelinfeline]

He played in our first practice game against Carlton. Others have had better pre-seasons, and he mainly plays wing at this point of his development - where we have a ton of options.

We also have way more availability than last year. He'll play at points this year, but there is some serious young talent emerging that might keep him down the pecking order for a while. If he's good enough, he'll perform and find his way in later on in the year.

Fair point, although we did lose Smith, who regularly played on the wing.

Anyway, they clearly believe Mannagh offers more, and they may well be right.

I'm surprised even Parfitt was an emergency before Knevitt, but clearly they want to give him some hope for the season.

 

[Catastrophe!]

Fair point, although we did lose Smith, who regularly played on the wing.

Anyway, they clearly believe Mannagh offers more, and they may well be right.

I'm surprised even Parfitt was an emergency before Knevitt, but clearly they want to give him some hope for the season.

I actually found that really interesting. What is more interesting, is that both Mullin and Parfitt were ahead of Bews - meaning Bews is done.

If we can get Bews, O'Connor, Kolo, Tuohy and Rohan out of the team by the end of the year, and replace them with Dempsey, S. Neale, Clark, Mannagh and Knevitt, for example, then I think we'll be in a extremely good place in our list transition; regardless of if we play finals or not.

 

[Mr Meow]

The second change is, like I said, that we have no proven elite mids/KPFs under 30, i.e. in or approaching their prime.
Cameron, Dangerfield, Stewart have only recently left the “prime” 26-29 bracket. Selwood and Hawk just a few years before them.

Undeniable demographic change and certainly the most uncertain time since the mid-2000s. 2015 we had Hawk and Sel even if we hadn’t landed Danger.

We're obviously in the process of losing a lot of top end quality. Gradually their output declines near the end anyway though so the transition occurs even before retirements. Last year we had to deal with Smith and Tuohy no longer being A grade for instance (and most would say Duncan).

Last year with a poor preseason, a slow start and a horror run of injuries we could just not get going. Hawkins, Dangerfield, Duncan, Tuohy, Rohan, Stanley, Blicavs, Guthrie, Stanley, Cameron and J.Henry all had periods missing, fighting through niggles or looking underdone. Too many of these names overlapped and then you had Holmes, Stengle, SDK types picking up knocks too. So it was a really hard year to judge.

We'll lose a few at the end of 2024 but shouldn't cap what we think we can achieve this season. I still think those in the 23-29 year old range can do some heavy lifting if most have career best seasons. Zuthrie and Miers went up a gear in 2023, maybe they and others can do the same again? But we are disproportionately reliant on youngsters and veterans, that is clear.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Scotty in the presser saying Bowes will play next week, they're being cautious after a corkie he got.

Lock him in to not play for 8 weeks then.

 

[Farmer2Goggin]

I'm puzzled how Knevitt is suddenly now a 'second-tier guy'. I don't remember him being talked about that way last season.

Has he had a bad preseason? Or have others had much better ones? He didn't even seem to get a look-in in the AFL preseason games.

Mystifying, I've got to say.

I would hope he'd play at least 10 games this year or he may look elsewhere next year, with some justification. He's contracted for next year, but that wouldn't stop him asking.

Anyway, presumably with injuries he'll get a chance at some point, so hopefully he grabs it.

Agree , bit of a mystery to be honest.
Had a great preseason and has improved his endurance by all reports.
He's also a great size with good decision making and skills.
He just looks indecisive at times , difficult to pick up on TV but he seems not to get involved when he could.
Easy observation is to say he needs more intensity , looks like it at least?

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Fair point, although we did lose Smith, who regularly played on the wing.

Anyway, they clearly believe Mannagh offers more, and they may well be right.

I'm surprised even Parfitt was an emergency before Knevitt, but clearly they want to give him some hope for the season.

They probably are trying to give parf some hope..being the only vfl player in the practice match must have been deflating. That said his lack of positional versatility will count against him and he wont play much afl this year. Guys like dempsey mannagh and even knevitt are more versatile.

Mannagh was always going to push ahead now bc of his age and being readymade.

Knevitt i still think will play a lot of footy this year and a lot next year once we have retirements.

I actually found that really interesting. What is more interesting, is that both Mullin and Parfitt were ahead of Bews - meaning Bews is done.

If we can get Bews, O'Connor, Kolo, Tuohy and Rohan out of the team by the end of the year, and replace them with Dempsey, S. Neale, Clark, Mannagh and Knevitt, for example, then I think we'll be in a extremely good place in our list transition; regardless of if we play finals or not.

Bews is clearly done and there have been signs of it coming. I agree that most of of those guys you list will leave the team by about mid 2025 (except maybe moc but that depends how well bowes goes) and most of those guys you list in the 2nd group will replace them. Plus stanley being replaced by conway over the next 12-18 months.

Then we are going to have the inevietable retirements of hawk danger and duncan over the next year or two (plus maybe blitz) but these guys are so elite (compared to the other older guys who are role players) that no one player alone can replace them we need 4 or 5 younger players to improve to replace the output they give us.

 

[Cataholic]

Lock him in to not play for 8 weeks then.

Maybe even keep an eye on the obituaries.......

 

[Mr Meow]

Agree , bit of a mystery to be honest.
Had a great preseason and has improved his endurance by all reports.
He's also a great size with good decision making and skills.
He just looks indecisive at times , difficult to pick up on TV but he seems not to get involved when he could.
Easy observation is to say he needs more intensity , looks like it at least?

You're spot on though.

I've had the same knock on Knevitt from his first AFL game and there's only been one or two games it wasn't a big issue (Bulldogs and Crows games 2023).

That issue is fumbling and hesitation over the ball. Coupled with a lack of genuine desire to demand it. Something that isn't evident in the VFL. It's a big step up but maybe his confidence still isn't there yet.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Agree , bit of a mystery to be honest.
Had a great preseason and has improved his endurance by all reports.
He's also a great size with good decision making and skills.
He just looks indecisive at times , difficult to pick up on TV but he seems not to get involved when he could.
Easy observation is to say he needs more intensity , looks like it at least?

I dont think its intensity ive seen him work hard and put his head in danger a lot plus (bizzarely) play ruck against bigger guys and he works hard and hes brave. its more hes an athlete who is very good at some things (for example hes a grear runner, great overhead for his size, kicking is better than you think) but doesnt read the game very well so at times he looks less intense bc he cant predict where the ball would go or where he should go. Hes the sort of player that could be A grade if you give him a role that plays to his athletic strengths where he has clearly defined instructions and doesnt have to interpret where the game is going whereas in the wrong role he can look a bit lost.

 

[dangerwood]

I'm puzzled how Knevitt is suddenly now a 'second-tier guy'. I don't remember him being talked about that way last season.

Has he had a bad preseason? Or have others had much better ones? He didn't even seem to get a look-in in the AFL preseason games.

Mystifying, I've got to say.

I would hope he'd play at least 10 games this year or he may look elsewhere next year, with some justification. He's contracted for next year, but that wouldn't stop him asking.

Anyway, presumably with injuries he'll get a chance at some point, so hopefully he grabs it.

He was just a bit of a non event in the practice games. I know we don't judge everything off praccys but he isn't a cemented player who can afford to coast. The likes of Clark, Dempsey, mannagh, Neale or fought for a game and knevitt...just didn't show much.
It's disappointing because he was so good in that doggies game last year and never should've been dropped. Hopefully he fires in the VFL and forces himself back in.

 

[Mr Meow]

I dont think its intensity ive seen him work hard and put his head in danger a lot plus (bizzarely) play ruck against bigger guys and he works hard and hes brave. its more hes an athlete who is very good at some things (for example hes a grear runner, great overhead for his size, kicking is better than you think) but doesnt read the game very well so at times he looks less intense bc he cant predict where the ball would go or where he should go. Hes the sort of player that could be A grade if you give him a role that plays to his athletic strengths where he has clearly defined instructions and doesnt have to interpret where the game is going whereas in the wrong role he can look a bit lost.

Does he have the skill set and mindset to be a backman?

 

[Vdubs]

They probably are trying to give parf some hope..being the only vfl player in the practice match must have been deflating. That said his lack of positional versatility will count against him and he wont play much afl this year. Guys like dempsey mannagh and even knevitt are more versatile.

Mannagh was always going to push ahead now bc of his age and being readymade.

Knevitt i still think will play a lot of footy this year and a lot next year once we have retirements.


Bews is clearly done and there have been signs of it coming. I agree that most of of those guys you list will leave the team by about mid 2025 (except maybe moc but that depends how well bowes goes) and most of those guys you list in the 2nd group will replace them. Plus stanley being replaced by conway over the next 12-18 months.

Then we are going to have the inevietable retirements of hawk danger and duncan over the next year or two (plus maybe blitz) but these guys are so elite (compared to the other older guys who are role players) that no one player alone can replace them we need 4 or 5 younger players to improve to replace the output they give us.

If you think Bews will not play another game, and you have been accurate in your descriptions of his output- something I did not pick- why was he kept on the list?
I still hope>think he will be useful, and not as a VFL player.

 

[Mr Meow]

If you think Bews will not play another game, and you have been accurate in your descriptions of his output- something I did not pick- why was he kept on the list?
I still hope>think he will be useful, and not as a VFL player.

Back up?

A Zuthrie, Duncan, Tuohy, Kolo, O'Connor injury and he probably finds a way in.

We often have a couple of experienced heads in the VFL team too.

 

[small 4wards]

If you think Bews will not play another game, and you have been accurate in your descriptions of his output- something I did not pick- why was he kept on the list?
I still hope>think he will be useful, and not as a VFL player.

I agree, Bews I think is underrated a bit on here. He's low possession and not very damaging with the ball but watch some of his defensive efforts over the years (mainly thinking PF 2022 and Adelaide at GMHBA last year) and he's got a desperation you just can't teach which is matched with great pace and a strong body.

 

[Turbocat]

So why has Ticketmaster changed the look of their digital passes. Was there a problem with using screenshots?

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Can you make a version of games played that year?

Some aspects that may float your boat

Games played by age you can see the commitment we've had to the 2016 draft carrying through. Sparklines added so you can track the lumps of experience travelling through time as you go down by rows



Same data set but comparison of games played in 2023 and the most comparable year there I could find 2016



Also, same data set again but stacked by age cohort in year of first draft eligibility. You can see that the 2020 draft cohort has the 3rd biggest investment of games under Scott to the same age. You can also see the drafts we effectively skip.




And lastly, and more soberly, a comparison against various "randomly selected" historic sides. You can see the sides that have hit the wall are nothing like us for experience in the 25-30 cohort. We are much, much thinner

 

[Vdubs]

Back up?

A Zuthrie, Duncan, Tuohy, Kolo, O'Connor injury and he probably finds a way in.

We often have a couple of experienced heads in the VFL team too.

Round 1. I'm not giving up on Bewsy yet. He has time.
Jack Henry dnp rd 1 in 22.
Not saying similar scenarios, but he seems better than depth

 

[Mr Meow]

Round 1. I'm not giving up on Bewsy yet. He has time.
Jack Henry dnp rd 1 in 22.
Not saying similar scenarios, but he seems better than depth

You don't have to give up on him.

If a couple of the other players are injured or need a rest Bews will get his chance.

I'm sure he is comfortable with the situation.

 

[Vdubs]

You don't have to give up on him.

If a couple of the other players are injured or need a rest Bews will get his chance.

I'm sure he is comfortable with the situation.

Thanks.
I haven't given up on Bews, and similarly, Parfitt

 

[Pure_Ownage]

If you think Bews will not play another game, and you have been accurate in your descriptions of his output- something I did not pick- why was he kept on the list?
I still hope>think he will be useful, and not as a VFL player.

Because he was already contracted for 24 (signed that deal in 2021) so if we delisted him we would have had to pay him out and there was no point doing that for another late pick in a weak draft.

Besides while he was clearly an obvious one to fall out for clark and mannagh et al we dont have a lot of depth at small defender so hes ok backup in case we get injuries (in the same way dahl was ok backup in 22 in case stengle or close were injured and we needed it).