Preview Rd 1 Geelong V StKilda Sat 16th Mar 2024 730pm @ GMHBA

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Sharman or Caminiti will be in there, as will Owens & Philipou.

They don't have a genuine second key forward, but they do have 4 or 5 guys in that 6'2+ category that you probably have to play a Kolo or Henry on, while SDK takes King.

I'd say we're bringing in all of SDK, Henry, & Kolo. There will be a chance to play just the two (Norf for instance who just have Larkey) but I don't believe it's this game.

Still have Stewart, Z.Guthrie and Duncan to play on those mid sized types. No need for either Kolo or M.O’Connor here I reckon. Be good to see how a shorter, more mobile back 6 would go anyway. We lack def 50 run so playing only SDK and JH would assist us here.
 
Tough team to pick for round 1.

Here's my effort.

B: Jed Bews, Sam De Koning, Zach Guthrie
HB: Tom Stewart, Jack Henry, Max Holmes
C: Mark Blicavs, Patrick Dangerfield, Mitch Duncan
HF: Gryan Miers, Jeremy Cameron, Ollie Dempsey
F: Tyson Stengle, Tom Hawkins, Ollie Henry
Foll: Rhys Stanley, Jack Bowes, Tanner Bruhn
I/C: Jhye Clark, Mark O'Connor, Brad Close, Tom Atkins, Shaun Mannagh

EMG: Shannon Neale, Jake Kolodjashnij, Zac Tuohy.

Some thoughts -

Dempsey - Has to be in there. Has a lot of class and brings some genuine X factor.
Clarke - Loved his game against Essendon. A tackling bull that needs his opportunity.
Bowes - Was brought to Geelong as a midfielder, but barely gets a run in there. But we look so much better when he is thrown into the middle.
Mannah - Looked great in the second half. Has some genuine footy smarts.
Stanley - Holds his spot for now. Looked ordinary against Goldy though.. Really hoping Conway can push his way in.
Atkins - Love him, but need a big start to the year. Needs to find more of the footy as a mid.
MOC - Gets the nod over Kolo and Touhy for his versatility.
Kolo and Touhy. Both unlucky to miss. I just think its time to move on from them both..
Neale - Looking foward to seeing more from him during the season. Misses due to weight of numbers...
Mullin - Don't want to see him in the side. Has shown nothing so far.. Give him a good run in the 2's to develop a better sense of the game..
O'Sullivan - Dont gift him games.. Let him develop and earn a spot..
Rohan - Hope to get him back fit and in the side. We always look more dangerous with him in the side.
 
Still have Stewart, Z.Guthrie and Duncan to play on those mid sized types. No need for either Kolo or M.O’Connor here I reckon. Be good to see how a shorter, more mobile back 6 would go anyway. We lack def 50 run so playing only SDK and JH would assist us here.
We'll be needing them to play on smalls. Especially if you don't have MOC.

The three players you mentioned are ones we want in mobile rebounding roles. Getting stuck on third talls is not ideal. We've seen Stewart struggle when he has to be more accountable like that.

I'm not a Kolo advocate in his 2023 onwards capacity, but structurally Scott doesn't go for 2 talls ever unless there's multiple KPD injuries (like a few times last year).
 
The Fear Index for round 1 as posted preseason

St Kilda
Most footy fans couldn't recognise a photo of half these defenders. Wilkie goes alright and Howard is OK here and there. Don't think we have an issue here.

Forward line can hurt you, I think it's one with a lot of avenues to goal if our midfield falls over. Membrey, King, Butler and Higgins are all names you can't sleep on, and while there's no real superstars it's pretty balanced tall and small so hard to plan for.

Midfield feels like the cast of the expendables, some very solid B graders who you keep forgetting exist then get reminded of what you like about them when they're on screen but there's still no character development and you won't watch the sequel.

Fear level: MAGA republicans. You can't take them seriously but then there’s a chance they win the election and effectively end Western geopolitical power.

Screenshot_20240209_121052_Instagram.jpg
 
Early Meat Tray. I have had a few cracks at this in different threads but this (subject to injury) is what I think the CLUB will go with Round 1 (I will then point out what I would change).

Backs: Henry, SDK, Kolo, Duncan, Holmes, Stewart (Zuthrie)
Mids: MOC, Blitz, Danger, Stanly, Bruhn, Atkins (Clark, 2E)
Forwards: Hawk, Jezza, Henry, Close, Miers, Stengle (Dempsey)
Sub: Bowes


Now if it was me I would have 2E out and put Bowes into the 22 - for sure. And then either have 2E or Mannagh sub

But I think they will start 2E for round 1 and I can’t see how they don’t play Clark as replacement for Guthrie so that is how I got Bowes as sub. (Again not what I would do!)
 
Early Meat Tray. I have had a few cracks at this in different threads but this (subject to injury) is what I think the CLUB will go with Round 1 (I will then point out what I would change).

Backs: Henry, SDK, Kolo, Duncan, Holmes, Stewart (Zuthrie)
Mids: MOC, Blitz, Danger, Stanly, Bruhn, Atkins (Clark, 2E)
Forwards: Hawk, Jezza, Henry, Close, Miers, Stengle (Dempsey)
Sub: Bowes


Now if it was me I would have 2E out and put Bowes into the 22 - for sure. And then either have 2E or Mannagh sub

But I think they will start 2E for round 1 and I can’t see how they don’t play Clark as replacement for Guthrie so that is how I got Bowes as sub. (Again not what I would do!)
Backs: Henry, SDK, Kolo, Duncan, Holmes, Stewart (Zuthrie)
Mids: Bowes, Blitz, Danger, Stanly, Bruhn, Atkins (Clark, MOC)
Forwards: Hawk, Jezza, Henry, Close, Miers, Stengle (Dempsey)
Sub: Tuohy

;)

My theory is that only one of MOC and Tuohy start, while the other comes on as a defensive sub allowing Holmes/Duncan to push up the ground more.
 
Early Meat Tray. I have had a few cracks at this in different threads but this (subject to injury) is what I think the CLUB will go with Round 1 (I will then point out what I would change).

Backs: Henry, SDK, Kolo, Duncan, Holmes, Stewart (Zuthrie)
Mids: MOC, Blitz, Danger, Stanly, Bruhn, Atkins (Clark, 2E)
Forwards: Hawk, Jezza, Henry, Close, Miers, Stengle (Dempsey)
Sub: Bowes


Now if it was me I would have 2E out and put Bowes into the 22 - for sure. And then either have 2E or Mannagh sub

But I think they will start 2E for round 1 and I can’t see how they don’t play Clark as replacement for Guthrie so that is how I got Bowes as sub. (Again not what I would do!)

MOC as sub, swaps with Bowes - that's the easy fix for mine.
 
The Fear Index for round 1 as posted preseason

St Kilda
Most footy fans couldn't recognise a photo of half these defenders. Wilkie goes alright and Howard is OK here and there. Don't think we have an issue here.

Forward line can hurt you, I think it's one with a lot of avenues to goal if our midfield falls over. Membrey, King, Butler and Higgins are all names you can't sleep on, and while there's no real superstars it's pretty balanced tall and small so hard to plan for.

Midfield feels like the cast of the expendables, some very solid B graders who you keep forgetting exist then get reminded of what you like about them when they're on screen but there's still no character development and you won't watch the sequel.

Fear level: MAGA republicans. You can't take them seriously but then there’s a chance they win the election and effectively end Western geopolitical power.

Screenshot_20240209_121052_Instagram.jpg

Also, Windhager, Webster, Howard, Sinclair, Butler and Dow, all unlikely to be there Round 1. Makes this side significantly weaker. Brad Crouch also hasn't played any pre-season matches either.
 
Backs: Henry, SDK, Kolo, Duncan, Holmes, Stewart (Zuthrie)
Mids: Bowes, Blitz, Danger, Stanly, Bruhn, Atkins (Clark, MOC)
Forwards: Hawk, Jezza, Henry, Close, Miers, Stengle (Dempsey)
Sub: Tuohy

;)

My theory is that only one of MOC and Tuohy start, while the other comes on as a defensive sub allowing Holmes/Duncan to push up the ground more.

I'd pick the same team I think. I reckon they might go Clark sub though. I'd play him in the 22 but he hasn't played much footy and they might want to ease him in rather than need a full game from him straight away.
 

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Man our midfield rotations that game were thin.

Cameron, Stengle, Ollie Henry all recording CBAs. De Koning rucking alongside Neale. We were so cooked by that point of the year.
Also Cameron and Dangerfield were absolutely cooked from their heroics (that defied logic given they were severely hampered) against Collingwood the week before. That was their, and the group's, final hoorah. And then we got even more injuries early in the Saints game.
 
MOC as sub, swaps with Bowes - that's the easy fix for mine.
If we want a sub to give us run and creativity in forward half of the ground to open game then MOC is not our man as he is very limited, a guy like Shaun Mannagh is far better suited plus we get to fast track Shaun's AFL development, the guys got superb vision, class, composure and skills. MOC as sub is only useful from a defensive view point, even in a running role it would still only be from a defensive stand point and for that reason I just don't see the value in playing him as a sub, personally I'd bite the bullet and just leave MOC out of side and let him create some flare in VFL if that is at all possible.
 
I can’t pretend to know more than the match committee, but I just don’t see the point of MOC on the wing. Maybe he has good defensive patterns, but he just doesn’t offer much offensively at all. Would rather see him battle Bews for the 7th defender, have Tuohy and Blitz on the wings and then have Bowes and Clark as the 22nd and 23rd men.
 
MOC as sub, swaps with Bowes - that's the easy fix for mine.

As CHAWKTS said, it's an easy fix...but will the MC actually do it?

I hope so, because it's really bloody hard to ignore how well Bowes played those pre-season games, even if he did only start in the second half last week.
 
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