Preview Rd 22 Cats V Freo Sat Aug 10 2024 435pm @ Optus

[goyoucatters]

Our defensive group is all about maximising the number of players capable of making the outlet kick. Think back to last year and the effect of when Sav had the ball in hand, any chance of a quick threatening ball movement gone. You want as many players with the confidence to move the ball forward through congestion and with the quick decision making ability to switch to get the ball to 2nd player into space. Every poor ball user reduces the angles that the otherside's structure has to cover. Which allows them to play more compact. Having Tuohy sitting on the arc as the connecting kick for the switch, forces them to cover the centre of the ground, even if we don't switch at all and go up the skinny side, it opens up space for our forwards (Dempsey, Miers, Cameron) to work into who then break through the zone without having to win a contest, aerially or on the ground.

On Duncan and Tuohy, they don't have to be player they were., their kicking will be the last thing to go. And their on paper defensive weakness becomes irrelevant in the same way playing shorter KPDs is, if we can't score it doesn't matter how much we concede, and if our team defence fails then no amount of gut running by small defenders will be enough over the entire body of contests to make up for it.

With you here, Lana. We're backing team defence as a system over individuals being isolated into 1v1 contests. In relation to the bolded, then, I see it as the 'difference' between Tuohy getting beaten by 5 metres to a loose ball that results in a goal, with the alternative being Bews getting beaten by 1.5 metres to a loose ball that results in a goal.

Given both circumstances result in goals for the opposition, the superior option for our defensive set-up would be the player who can help you most when you actually win the ball defensively and are looking to transition swiftly and effectively the other way.

And that player certainly isn't Jed.

 

[Mr Meow]

Our defensive group is all about maximising the number of players capable of making the outlet kick. Think back to last year and the effect of when Sav had the ball in hand, any chance of a quick threatening ball movement gone. You want as many players with the confidence to move the ball forward through congestion and with the quick decision making ability to switch to get the ball to 2nd player into space. Every poor ball user reduces the angles that the otherside's structure has to cover. Which allows them to play more compact. Having Tuohy sitting on the arc as the connecting kick for the switch, forces them to cover the centre of the ground, even if we don't switch at all and go up the skinny side, it opens up space for our forwards (Dempsey, Miers, Cameron) to work into who then break through the zone without having to win a contest, aerially or on the ground.

On Duncan and Tuohy, they don't have to be player they were., their kicking will be the last thing to go. And their on paper defensive weakness becomes irrelevant in the same way playing shorter KPDs is, if we can't score it doesn't matter how much we concede, and if our team defence fails then no amount of gut running by small defenders will be enough over the entire body of contests to make up for it.

This all makes sense on the condition that Tuohy is still a consistently elite ball user and decision maker. That type of player is very beneficial if they're finding the ball 20+ times to account for their lack of defensive proficiency/agility. Duncan meets all of these requirements (mostly). Tuohy doesn't (mostly). 21 vs 16 disposals is a significant difference, especially if the guy getting 21 is using the ball better.

We have another elite rebounder if the team as well now - Humphries. Zuthrie is another. Stewart drops back and still sets up the same counter attacks.

BORIS332 might have some thoughts.

 

[allrighty]

Humphries.

Thanks

 

[goyoucatters]

The nickname was for the fan bandwagon not the man himself - the doritos express. Somehow this has now morphed into a nickname for him

All good, CatToTheFuture. I think it will work itself out over time. Certainly can't see that taking off as his crowd-adopted moniker at games.

I'm just rolling with 'Laws', myself. But I figure 'Henry/H.' (Lawson) or 'Baz/Barry' (Humphries) are more likely to win acclaim than an assignation associated with a particular brand of savoury snacks.

Still, 'Baz' might be just about off limits at the Cattery by the time 2025 rolls around...

 

[Lana]

This all makes sense on the condition that Tuohy is still a consistently elite ball user and decision maker. That type of player is very beneficial if they're finding the ball 20+ times to account for their lack of defensive proficiency/agility. Duncan meets all of these requirements (mostly). Tuohy doesn't (mostly). 21 vs 16 disposals is a significant difference, especially if the guy getting 21 is using the ball better.

We have another elite rebounder if the team as well now - Humphries. Zuthrie is another. Stewart drops back and still sets up the same counter attacks.

BORIS332 might have some thoughts.

When Stewart was moved into the middle Tuohy was shifted from the wing to defence, he has been averaging 18.5 disposals and 5 rebound 50s per game. I don't think the volume gap really means anything, it is really splitting hairs. The benefit in possession chain efficiency and outlet options is evident. The opposition has to cover a much wider range of options actually all options, it makes it harder for them to work out who will be the centre point on the counter attack to base their positioning off which we can switch at will, all the options are adept kicks short, can run with the ball into space and go long and can hit the inboard 45 degree kick into the corridor. Tuohy doesn't have to be as elite (in volume or precision) as he had to be ball in hand because he isn't the primary ball mover anymore. For a while it only him or Stewart, the load is more equally shared.

 

[Mr Meow]

When Stewart was moved into the middle Tuohy was shifted from the wing to defence, he has been average 18.5 disposals and 5 rebound 50s per game. I don't think the volume gap really means anything, it is really splitting hairs. The benefit in possession chain efficiency and outlet options is evident. The opposition has to cover a much wider range of options actually all options, it makes it harder for them to work out who will be the centre point on the counter attack to base their positioning off which we can switch at will, all the options are adept kicks short, can run with the ball into space and go long and can hit the inboard 45 degree kick into the corridor. Tuohy doesn't have to be as elite (in volume or precision) as he had to be ball in hand because he isn't the primary ball mover anymore. For a while it only him or Stewart, the load is more equally shared.

Interesting that you see this as the cause. The introduction of Humphries I see as more significant, as has been Stewart's capacity to drop in as a genuine spare man instead of being harassed by an opposition forward. If the inclusion of both Tuohy and Duncan in defence is what makes this possible (I'm still not sure that this is the case) then I can see the MC's perspective. They obviously have weighed up those pros against the obvious cons, ones Tuohy's current condition makes obvious.

I don't necessarily mind the idea of having an extra rebounder and so it's with that in mind that I am not fully against the idea of Tuohy in the line up - even if he is a collapsing, disintegrating Tuohy. The main premise of my post was to contest that "Tuohy has been better than Duncan" this season in such a role. He simply hasn't.

 

[Lana]

Interesting that you see this as the cause. The introduction of Humphries I see as more significant, as has been Stewart's capacity to drop in as a genuine spare man instead of being harassed by an opposition forward. If the inclusion of both Tuohy and Duncan in defence is what makes this possible (I'm still not sure that this is the case) then I can see the MC's perspective. They obviously have weighed up those pros against the obvious cons, ones Tuohy's current condition makes obvious.

I don't necessarily mind the idea of having an extra rebounder and so it's with that in mind that I am not fully against the idea of Tuohy in the line up - even if he is a collapsing, disintegrating Tuohy. The main premise of my post was to contest that "Tuohy has been better than Duncan" this season in such a role. He simply hasn't.

I think they're both well overcooked, but with our limited resources to top up our list, we have wring every possible game (In Stanley's case every contest) from them to stay competitive.

I think that they put Tuohy in on the wing instead of Duncan because he probably had an inch more running power left in him, and chose both over someone like Knevitt because their kicking suits our pathway to winning a game more then covering Km does.

I think that Tuohy being play on the wing left him more exposed then Duncan was off half back. If you switched their roles this year. Tuohy's raw numbers would have been better then they are now, and Duncan's would be worse then they are now. Without comment on their relative abilities.

 

[Commando]

No love for Andrew Wills?

Has to be Stephen Oreilly??

 

[Mr Meow]

I think they're both well overcooked, but with our limited resources to top up our list, we have wring every possible game (In Stanley's case every contest) from them to stay competative.

I think that they put Tuohy in on the wing instead of Duncan because he probably had an inch more running power left in him, and chose both over someone like Knevitt because their kicking suites our pathway to winning a game more then covering Km does.

I think that Tuohy being play on the wing left him more exposed then Duncan was off half back. If you switched their roles this year. Tuohy's raw numbers would have been better then they are now, and Duncan's would be worse then they are now. Without comment on their relative abilities.

We may be approaching "agree to disagree" on this one as it seems we spotting entirely different causative factors to explain discrepancies. As far as Duncan/Tuohy giving us the same output and any differences being explained by roles - I disagree.

Duncan's field coverage and reading of the play seems better to me, hence why he is more prolific. Duncan was also more prolific than Tuohy on the wing in season 2023. Wherever they are positioned on the field this has occurred. Tuohy's disposals per game have dropped off since 2022 far more severely than Duncan's.

Some statistical read offs from this season that you may or may not be able to explain:

-Tuohy has a clanger every 5.9 disposals; Duncan has one every 9.3 disposals
-Tuohy has played closer to our attacking goal this season (evidenced by less rebound 50s than Duncan), yet has just 3.0 score involvements per game compared to 4.3 for Duncan. Yes this is a by product of Duncan winning more footy (a very, very important thing for the roles they have been given) but we have a deeper lying player in Duncan giving us 43% more scoring chains per game than Tuohy.
-Duncan had as many disposals on the wing in 2023 as he does in defence in 2024 - so why is Tuohy's more advanced positioning explaining him getting less of the ball?
-Duncan's supposed weakness is his contested game (fair enough), yet he has nearly twice as many hard ball gets this season as Tuohy.
-Duncan gets an extra 2 handball receives per game so appears to be used as the playmaker and/or read the game well enough to be the outlet more often.
-Duncan's kicking efficiency is 5% higher than Tuohy's.

One is playing the role more effectively than the other. Do we actually need both, since we have Humphries as well? There's enough doubt to make it a valid debate and to bring justification for those critiquing Tuohy's performances a little more than Duncan lately (which should've occurred a long time ago, people have taken a while to wake up to this).

 

[moond0g]

The stats say it's been Tuohy's career best year for conceding contested defensive losses. I see all this Tuohy bashing on this board with no real substance. All I take out of it is "He's the only 34-year-old on the list I'm comfortable bagging." He's had a good year. Much better than Duncan's year, although I know people will say "look at Duncan's possession count", spare me.

View attachment 2072376

Hence why citing it as evidence he's dropped off is garbage.

You were the one citing it as evidence though?

 

[cats_09]

For anyone else going to the football tomorrow and wondering about transport options:

AFL RD 22: FREMANTLE V GEELONG ​

10 August 2024


Heading to Optus Stadium to see Fremantle v Geelong?

Your ticket includes travel on all Transperth services for three hours before and after the event, and additional services will run to get you to and from Optus Stadium.

Direct trains on the Fremantle and Yanchep lines, in addition to Suburban Event Bus Network will operate to get you to and from the game.

Plan your journey using the Transperth JourneyPlanner before you travel.



Find out more

AFL RD 22: Fremantle v Geelong

Optus Stadium Gates open: 1.00pm Bounce down: 2.35pm Event and ticket information Heading to Optus Stadium to see Fremantle v Geelong? Your footy ticket includes travel on all Transperth services for three hours before and after the event. Simply show your event ticket to the driver or...

www.transperth.wa.gov.au

 

[Farmer2Goggin]

Blitz will play back...and 2E will go back to the wing given we have Duncan back

I think worth a crack with Blitz back as he just hasn't got going this year on the wing or in the middle. This week he can play on Jackson when he is playing forward and maybe follow him when he goes into the ruck to give Stanley a chop out. I am hopeful (maybe too optimistic) that this could be another move (like Stewart and SDK) that unlocks a player in need of a different look

Agree CHAWKTS
Tracey out is huge but I suspect Jackson will play more forward than usual and be looked for - he's a game breaker when he's on and will be too tall for Henry so Blitz will be required.

 

[Lana]

We may be approaching "agree to disagree" on this one as it seems we spotting entirely different causative factors to explain discrepancies. As far as Duncan/Tuohy giving us the same output and any differences being explained by roles - I disagree.

Duncan's field coverage and reading of the play seems better to me, hence why he is more prolific. Duncan was also more prolific than Tuohy on the wing in season 2023. Wherever they are positioned on the field this has occurred. Tuohy's disposals per game have dropped off since 2022 far more severely than Duncan's.

Some statistical read offs from this season that you may or may not be able to explain:

-Tuohy has a clanger every 5.9 disposals; Duncan has one every 9.3 disposals
-Tuohy has played closer to our attacking goal this season (evidenced by less rebound 50s than Duncan), yet has just 3.0 score involvements per game compared to 4.3 for Duncan. Yes this is a by product of Duncan winning more footy (a very, very important thing for the roles they have been given) but we have a deeper lying player in Duncan giving us 43% more scoring chains per game than Tuohy.
-Duncan had as many disposals on the wing in 2023 as he does in defence in 2024 - so why is Tuohy's more advanced positioning explaining him getting less of the ball?
-Duncan's supposed weakness is his contested game (fair enough), yet he has nearly twice as many hard ball gets this season as Tuohy.
-Duncan gets an extra 2 handball receives per game so appears to be used as the playmaker and/or read the game well enough to be the outlet more often.
-Duncan's kicking efficiency is 5% higher than Tuohy's.

One is playing the role more effectively than the other. Do we actually need both, since we have Humphries as well? There's enough doubt to make it a valid debate and to bring justification for those critiquing Tuohy's performances a little more than Duncan lately (which should've occurred a long time ago, people have taken a while to wake up to this).

Duncan wasn't a wingman last year, he spent most of the year off half back. It was the Shifting of Holmes from the middle to the HBF at the start of this year that required the movement of one of them.

All of this comparison is ignoring the role difference between the two. In general the higher a is positioned up the ground the lower the DE. It is easy for players behind the ball to get cheap kicks that pad is a little, (plus kick outs)

DE from its definition (long kicks to 1 on 1 that break even are effective) and CLG (A basket stat without a lot of thing beyond turnovers) aren't really good measures.

But if I would have to point at a cause to the discrepancy between Duncan and Tuohy in those measures would be that they are influenced by contested possession rate which is 37.7% for Tuohy and 21.2% for Duncan.
Not sure where you got the HBG from by Touhy averages around 50% more Ground ball gets than Duncan.

Tuohy also gets 1/3 of his possessions as an intercept possession, a vast majority of which are ground level. Means his is the origin of these chains and not a link. It is about 1/7 for Duncan.


.

 

[Mr Meow]

Duncan wasn't a wingman last year, he spent most of the year off half back. It was the Shifting of Holmes from the middle to the HBF at the start of this year that required the movement of one of them.

All of this comparison is ignoring the role difference between the two. In general the higher a is positioned up the ground the lower the DE. It is easy for players behind the ball to get cheap kicks that pad is a little, (plus kick outs)

DE from its definition (long kicks to 1 on 1 that break even are effective) and CLG (A basket stat without a lot of thing beyond turnovers) aren't really good measures.

But if I would have to point at a cause to the discrepancy between Duncan and Tuohy in those measures would be that they are influenced by contested possession rate which is 37.7% for Tuohy and 21.2% for Duncan.
Not sure where you got the HBG from by Touhy averages around 50% more Ground ball gets than Duncan.

Tuohy also gets 1/3 of his possessions as an intercept possession, a vast majority of which are ground level. Means his is the origin of these chains and not a link. It is about 1/7 for Duncan.


.

Duncan was a hybrid wingman/half back in 2023 the way Tuohy has been this year. You're gonna have to trust me on this one. He had 7 games with 2 or less rebound 50s in 2023 (3 games with 0). He has had 2 games with 2 or less rebound 50s in 2024 (no games with 0). He has like 60% less inside 50s but 25% more rebound 50s this season.

Duncan's disposal efficiency last year, when he was advanced closer to the wing on average (similar to Tuohy in 2024), was actually higher - which directly contradicts your second paragraph point.

If you don't like disposal efficiency, then you can look at: clangers per disposal (Duncan has less by a landslide), effective kicks (Duncan has more by a land slide) or score involvements (Duncan comfortably). You can try and find any other measure to show that Tuohy's ball use has been as good. The eye test backs up all of these basic metrics.

Tuohy gets in contested situations a hell of a lot more yet has half as many hard ball gets - why? A separate point is that Tuohy is slower reflex-wise than Duncan and doesn't read the ball quite as well, hence is under pressure more. This explains why he has more scrambling dump kicks down the line compared to Duncan who more often finds a target.

Duncan is still intercepting at a close rate to Tuohy, he is simply getting into space to find the uncontested ball that more often generates scoring chains or relieves pressure as well.

 

[Jumping Jack]

Agree CHAWKTS
Tracey out is huge but I suspect Jackson will play more forward than usual and be looked for - he's a game breaker when he's on and will be too tall for Henry so Blitz will be required.

You're right I think and with SDK out I think Fremantle will take a negative (Treacy Out) and try to create a positive with Jackson's height to test our backline.

 

[Johanpetro]

When’s the last time Blicavs played in the backline?
Anyone remember?
Was it this year or a previous year

Anyone got an answer to this? Genuinely can’t remember the last time he played as a key back… had to have been 2-3 years now. Don’t see it changing this week tbh

 

[Footy Smarts]

Anyone got an answer to this? Genuinely can’t remember the last time he played as a key back… had to have been 2-3 years now. Don’t see it changing this week tbh

I don't think he's been regularly in defence since the 2021 finals series. Maybe a couple of games early in 2022?

He's spent more time up forward than down back this year. Usually Stanley is the one that takes the centre bounces and defensive half stoppages then sits a kick behind the play while Blicavs plays on ball and rucks forward of centre.

 

[Farmer2Goggin]

We are right in this , Treacy is a huge out but so is Pearce - both have been in serious form of late.
They slayed us in the MF last time over here with Brayshaw, Serong and OMeara cutting us up.
We need to close the MF gap if we are to get the game on our terms.

SDK is a big out , let's hope we get good Kolo and JH this week.
I think the big ground suits us and if our forwards keep moving ( rather than be static) we have enough talent to upset their defence ( particularly if we play Clark and Walker closely).
I think Cox plays on Jezza as Ryan is their preferred interceptor so OH/Rohan need to keep him accountable.
That could leave Draper on Neale which is a match up Neale should exploit.
Both forward lines look to have it over opposition defence so let's hope we function better than them , and our MF steps up.

 

[CHAWKTS]

I feel like we say this every week. If we break even in clearances we should win. We should break even in our defence and they won’t be able to cope with our forward line if we get enough opportunity.

A big IF though…Danger and Stewart will need to play very well (again) and Tanner bring his second half from last week.

Hoping the wider wings suit Miers and Dempsey. Mannagh just needs to keep doing what he does

 

[goyoucatters]

I feel like we say this every week. If we break even in clearances we should win.

I think we mostly say it so often because it's absolutely true. This team is set up well enough forward of and behind the ball to contend with anyone. But if we get obliterated around the ball (in terms of either quantity and/or quality of clearances), we will struggle.

As would any other team in the competition, of course. Fact is, we have more capacity to overcome this midfield deficiency than anyone else at this point. And if we get our midfield set-up really humming in the next few years, we're likely to continue to be right in it.

 

[BORIS332]

You were the one citing it as evidence though?

Maybe re-read the thread and try again.

 

[Goggin Our Best]

Agree CHAWKTS
Tracey out is huge but I suspect Jackson will play more forward than usual and be looked for - he's a game breaker when he's on and will be too tall for Henry so Blitz will be required.

Yes but the last time Blicavs played FB at Opus Oval in Perth was that horror PF walloping defeat to Melb

And his direct opponent Ben Brown apart from absolutely destroying Blicavs , he marked the ball and looked like John Coleman - and Brown has played about 5 good games in his life , and that was probably the pick of them

Please no Blicavs to the backline they will just have to find someone else , and Kolo allways plays tall , alot taller than his actual height

 

[bruce lindner]

Perhaps not a popular opinion, but given the club's commitment to Mullin, it seems like an opportunity for the MC to once more give him another challenge in a lockdown/run with role as it did in the Sydney game (which we know worked out well in the 1st but unfortunately he couldn't maintain). He has the pace, tank and hardness for insurance to absorb and instil pressure around the contest to be a problem for their accumulators. Given Freo's inability to run out the game against Essendon, Mullin's physical prowess could also prove handy if we're up to our necks in it in the last

 

[Johanpetro]

Perhaps not a popular opinion, but given the club's commitment to Mullin, it seems like an opportunity for the MC to once more give him another challenge in a lockdown/run with role as it did in the Sydney game (which we know worked out well in the 1st but unfortunately he couldn't maintain). He has the pace, tank and hardness for insurance to absorb and instil pressure around the contest to be a problem for their accumulators. Given Freo's inability to run out the game against Essendon, Mullin's physical prowess could also prove handy if we're up to our necks in it in the last

The teams have already been announced

 

[goyoucatters]

The teams have already been announced

Yes.

And Mullin is a travelling emergency with the AFL squad.