Preview Rnd 21 - Carlton v Richmond - Sunday 11th August 3:20PM @ MCG - Final Team - Post #399

[YeOldTiger]

Stocker played 5 games so far this season, rounds 7-11, then got injured. Looks to be a pretty handy player to me. Clean disposal on both sides.

Oh my mistake. Will keep an eye out for him as he progresses. Thanks.

 

[I bleed Blue]

I think Jones might play.

Just a gut feel. I played on the Saturday when my old man passed during the week.

Guess everyone is different. Might be good for Jones to concentrate on something else for a few hours.

I know afl is different to local footy and theres more at stake, but I just think he might.

 

[HBF]

no - melbourne forgot to read the script - only game I've ever cried at..........

Same.
I miss playing games for 4 points at Princes Park

 

[Eiffel 65]

Agree if Kreuzer fit.

Cunners no way ready based on today's game...limited impact and limited minutes. Can't carry any underdone players against a hard running Richmond.

Supply into the forward 50 wasn't great. I wouldn't look too much into that game. More about match minutes for Cunners.

 

[BigFrizz36]

I look forward to these every week.

Jack would have to consider himself a bit stiff!!

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

Goddard out, Levi to defence, Gov back in.
Kruz in Phillips out.
Thomas in, Schumacher out.
Stocker in Deluca out.

 

[Mr_Plow]

Gov straight in, no time to waste, need to win 2 out of the last 3 so it is worthwhile rolling the dice. Russell knows what he is doing.

 

[JohnnyFontane90]

Does McGovern just roll straight in after being banished for poor form, poor health and not applying the right attitude? I'd think a week in the 2s would be more appropriate?!

if he's fit he plays. Against sides that set up well defensively a third marking tall is extremely handy. Our ball movement took a step backwards vs west coast i thought and gov will help a lot with that. As much as i love JSOS he's not a consistent contested marking player. Push JSOS further up the ground and leave gov deep.

 

[Aphrodite]

Hi. Wondering if young Stocker is a chance to debut this week? I found it interesting that you snaffled him just before our pick (I had my fingers crossed for Collier-Dawkins falling to us anyway so I wasn't too worried and he's learning his trade as a 192cm centreman in our VFL side as he fills out) assuming we were going to take him. I saw he had 20+ in the 2s and obviously he can play. Is he ready ? How's he going ? Clearly your recruiters rate him so when's he likely?
Cheers and good luck on Sunday.

Made his Senior debut against North in May.

 

[windows1]

I’d say statistically Lang HAS to go this week.

He is averaging the 16th best forward 50 ground ball gets at the club....


He’s 14th in forward 50 tackles per game (Deluca 1st off his small sample).

He’s just non existent I’m afraid.

 

[Stiffler's Dad]

Daisy, MM for Shoe maker and Lang.

I doubt Jones will play, footy would be the last thing on my mind if my mum passed away.

Sometimes people need the distraction though.
The get up and get on with it thing.

 

[windows1]

Sometimes people need the distraction though.
The get up and get on with it thing.

Didn’t train today

 

[agro]

Didn’t train today

I recall that Jarrod Waite played the week his father Vin passed away, that was way back in 2003.

 

[El Topo]

I’d say statistically Lang HAS to go this week.

He is averaging the 16th best forward 50 ground ball gets at the club....


He’s 14th in forward 50 tackles per game (Deluca 1st off his small sample).

He’s just non existent I’m afraid.

Add to that list, he consistently burns scoring opportunities by being that one second too slow. Lang is a speed bump.

 

[Red Bull]

In : Kreuzer Jones Thomas McGovern

Out : Phillips Goddard Shu Lang

Simpson Jones Plowman
Newman Weitering SPS
O’Brien Cripps Setterfield
Fisher Casboult Kennedy
McGovern McKay Gibbons

Kreuzer Curnow Murphy

Walsh DeLuca Thomas Silvagni

 

[BLUEALLTHRU]

View attachment 720015

HUGE challenge for the boys coming up against the premiership favorites. Both sides have been in good form after the bye, with Teaguey giving the Baggers a new lease of life and a sense of belief. A month and a half back, not many of us would have given us any chance, but we're now a big chance to be competitive and push them all the way.

It doesn't get any better than the traditional rivals coming up against each other at the G, with a crowd of 65-70,000 not out of the question on a Sunday twilight. For those of us who were around to see the rivalry from back in the 70's will appreciate the battles we've had over the years.....from the record score to win the 1972 Grand Final, to Balme knocking out Southby and Fowler shirtfronting Big Nick in the 1973 Grand Final.....Helen D'Amico baring it all in the 1982 Grand Final win....and the semi final in 2001 where Kouta went down with a serious knee injury, missing most of the 2002 season....through to the Judd vs Cousins showdown in round 1, 2009....and the Elimination Final in 2013 with Judd leading the revival, and Duigan heading down from the grandstand after munching down a pie as a last minute change, to kick 4 snags and be a match winner.

Just a bit of a collage of a few images that'll jog a few memories....

View attachment 720027

Anyway, who will win and why....

Out most recent encounters don't work in our favour, so we will have to be at our best to take it up to them. For mine, they have system in their game that has been developed over the past few years that will win games more that they'll lose....regardless of the personnel they have at hand, similar to Melbourne Storm. If everyone know and plays their role, they're more than a 50/50 chance to win. We're probably not quite at that stage yet with our list build and new players coming in along with a new coach....but I see the Tigers as what we'll be in a few years once we have stability with our list and game strategy.

View attachment 720037

source: https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_team_comparison?mid=3521&team1_id=15&team2_id=4


I'm not a huge stats person, so won't go a Dermie type of analysis. For those who are, here are the important stats for the year, courtesy of Footywire (same link as above).
One thing that does stand out though is the uncontested possessions and average handballs comparison shows the outside game they play so well once they have the ball....force the turnover and swarm in numbers. Not easy to stop...

View attachment 720040

Carlton
How we win
Team selection will be huge on the Thursday night, although again we won't know the final team until the day after. The addition of Jonesy will be vital to combat the twin 'towers' in the Richmond forward line, although Chol has also been up there in recent weeks, giving them three genuine marking forwards. The heat will be on Weiters and Jonesy....and a decision to be made if we go with an extra tall down back. Goddard's game against WCE will largely determine if he'll be retained, although his speed may become an issue with the swarm of Richmond smalls in the forward half. Hopefully Krooz will be back as well.

We need to be mindful of Richmond's relentless pressure and turnover, where they more often than not attack down the middle to open up the forward line. Similarly, we can't just bomb the ball into our forward half - Vlastuin/Astbury/Grimes just eat that stuff for breakfast. We've got to get the ball to the deck if we're not in a position to mark, and let Gibbo and his band of smalls create the pressure to keep the ball in the forward half. Harry needs to start clunking the marks and creating contest overhead, while Levi's form has been fantastic, and needs to keep hitting those packs at speed, and jagging 2 or 3 goals during the course. We've shown that we can create scoring opportunities now under Teague....since he took over the reigns, we're now sitting 4th in the AFL for 'points for' behind the Lions, Eagles and Tiges; ie 3 out of the top 4 teams currently on the ladder.

The midfield battle should be epic, with Crippa, Murph and Ed up against Dusty, Prestia and Lambert right in the guts. Richmond not really a side to tag or 'go with', so Crippa could have a field day. The Oxygen Brothers will also be crucial in running both offensively and defensively on the wide expanses of the G.

How they win
They're not the current premiership favorites for no reason.

They've won their last half a dozen or so games by an average of around 6-7 goals, so are building into the second half of the season. The possibly inclusion of Stack and Nankervis would also help bolster the side.

Richmond play a high pressure game that will eventually wear the opposition down, and open up the game during the second half. Cause the turnover, handball, kick to the spare in the guts, and a goal opportunity is created. The running style of game in waves with players like Rioli, Bolton, Castagna, Prestia and Edwards creates a swarm that can be impossible to defend for the entirety of the game.

The twin towers up forward are starting to gel as a unit, and Lynch has a history of tearing us a new one when he was with GCS.

The defence is also well organised, so if we just bomb it up forward under pressure, it'll bounce back with interest. Even without Rance, Astbury and Grimes have stepped up; and Vlastuin and Houli can carve you to pieces off half back if they're not accountable.

Key Players...

View attachment 720058

Key match ups...

Crippa vs Martin
Ed vs Prestia
Weiters vs Reiwoldt
Jonesy vs Lynch
Walsh vs Castagna
SPS vs Stack
Plow vs Rioli
H vs Grimes
Levi vs Astbury
JSOS vs Vlastuin

Who wins
The heart says the Blues by 4 points, the head says maybe that's wishful thinking.

The best pre game preview this year. Well done BH

 

[Bamboo Harvester]

The best pre game preview this year. Well done BH

Thanks BLUEALLTHRU....I was actually a bit nervous when I was putting it together that I'd stuff it up completely.
Much appreciated

 

[Duigan Alley34]

Waite played the day after his dad died. First season. I found it really odd. So agree- all handle differently.

I would've been about 6 at the time, still remember getting chills when he kicked that goal.

 

[mediumsizered]

I would've been about 6 at the time, still remember getting chills when he kicked that goal.

There was barely a dry eye at the ground when he kicked that goal. Our players came from everywhere to get around him.

 

[norway blue]

Reckon bring it to Richmond.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Accidental genius]

Tough ask if we go in unchanged. To have a real chance we’d need to bring in daisy gov and Kruze and few of the players would need to lift on last week. Need much more energy and hardness around the ball. Walsh and Gibbo are great examples. Collectively we need to be cleaner with our ball use. Sometimes we do this well but not enough. Forwards need to lead out more to get a clean possession. Sick of seeing the ball come in high. Teams with good defence always seem to take control of these situations as we saw last week and Tiges will probably do the same.

 

[VainGlorious]

cant wait for gov to comeback

Same jooce

I’ve gone into for him a bit and would love to see him come home with a wet sail and really solidify his standing in the playing group.

I’ve already got a soft spot for Gov, and I’m glad he’s losing some of his soft spots so he can be the best he can be.

I’m going out on a limb here.......

Will be as good if not better than his brother

 

[LanceRomance]

Given our current formline, we are arguably the toughest team richmond have come up against for a fair while.

 

[F_therest]

I think Jones might play.

Just a gut feel. I played on the Saturday when my old man passed during the week.

Guess everyone is different. Might be good for Jones to concentrate on something else for a few hours.

I know afl is different to local footy and theres more at stake, but I just think he might.

Who plays on Lynch/Riewoldt if Jones doesn't get up?

Lynch is in better form so i'd send Weitering to him.

We have no good match up for Riewoldt...Plowman might have to play taller but would have no confidence in that match up and i'd also worry for Goddard.

 

[I bleed Blue]

Who plays on Lynch/Riewoldt if Jones doesn't get up?

Lynch is in better form so i'd send Weitering to him.

We have no good match up for Riewoldt...Plowman might have to play taller but would have no confidence in that match up and i'd also worry for Goddard.

I feel like Riewoldt / Lynch would both lead Goddard on a merry dance.

Too much speed and athleticism for him.

Jones is a good match up for Riewoldt.