Player Watch Rookie Pick #45 (2015) - Dan Houston

[Ford Fairlane]

I was exaggerating to make a point. We’re all friends here.

If Pickett doesn’t request a trade, then he won’t get traded. Simple as that. We then have the upper hand and can demand two first rounders. I would absolutely play hard ball in that scenario.

If Pickett does request a trade though, then it becomes contracted player for contracted player. Both parties have leverage in that scenario and it becomes a negotiation about how each party rates their respective player.

From a port perspective, Pickett fills a massive need and if we can bring in a cumming/perryman for free, our best 22 is improved imo.

I know we are, but it was an example that obfuscated the discussion.

But Pickett doesn't have to request a trade. It could be like the Burton scenario when we traded Wingard. He had to be convinced to be traded once Clarkson agreed to let him go.

if Port (and Pickett) are smart, that's how it should play out if that's the path they go down.

As I said though, once you get a good player involved in the trade, it makes it harder because of the respective valuations of the players.

I also don't know he's a massive need, but it would be good to get him.

Anyway, Port and Melbourne will work it out if it's going to happen, but the minimum has to be two first round picks, one in top 10 (5).

 

[Brian McGee]

It really depends what first rounders we are talking I guess. Melbourne currently have pick 6-8. A second late first rounder added to that is reasonable in our eyes for Houston, but I am not sure they would do it. Not interested in 2 picks outside 10 or 12 at all.

 

[Enviable Tradition]

Some perspective on Pickett.



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[Chewy316]

I really don't think Kozzie is on the radar right now - but of course these things are fluid and can change pretty quickly.

Dan can say publicly, privately whatever he wants about being a Port Adelaide man. And that's quite frankly exactly what he should be saying. But you don't instruct your manager when you've got 3 years left on your current contract to field interest with Victorian clubs and then enter deep negotiations with the Demons if you're not interested in returning home.

Having a manager allows for plausible deniability, and it gives a degree of separation between the player and other Clubs. It allows Dan to be a "Port man" whilst at the same time his management can go to work and get him the best deal. And once that is sorted and a team is ready to pay him what his perceived value is, then it comes down to whether the Clubs can come to an agreement.

But both Port and the Demons have a rough idea of the price and the Demons aren't going into this thinking they can get him for a packet of chips like Dodoro would. Have heard that the Demons are one of the good clubs to do deals with and so provided the trade request goes through as expected, it's not one that will likely roll through to the trade deadline.

 

[Playthekids76]

If rebuilding means moving on Dixon, Boak, Burton then I’m all for it

isn't Burton contracted for 2025?

 

[Playthekids76]

Does Riley hate Hinkley?

How the F8ck would I know. Move on tiger, im a fan.

 

[Addy23]

If Byron didn't play at Port, I doubt Kozzie would be getting this much mention here.

If you look up his stats for this season and last, he's above average in most categories with a 50% or less scoring accuracy.

Other than age, Kozzie doesn't have much going for him to balance out this trade with Houston. Houston is elite in many categories over the last 2 seasons

Kozzie + Steak knives is us still losing that deal imo.

I'd rather take the risk with Barrett and take 2 first round picks.

 

[Ford Fairlane]

It really depends what first rounders we are talking I guess. Melbourne currently have pick 6-8. A second late first rounder added to that is reasonable in our eyes for Houston, but I am not sure they would do it. Not interested in 2 picks outside 10 or 12 at all.

If they get pick 4 from Adelaide for Oliver, they could split their other first round pick and give us one of those with 4. That will probably get it done.

Otherwise, the next year's first round pick so we can death-ride them.

 

[Chrizzt]

If Byron didn't play at Port, I doubt Kozzie would be getting this much mention here.

If you look up his stats for this season and last, he's above average in most categories with a 50% or less scoring accuracy.

Other than age, Kozzie doesn't have much going for him to balance out this trade with Houston. Houston is elite in many categories over the last 2 seasons

Kozzie + Steak knives is us still losing that deal imo.

I'd rather take the risk with Barrett and take 2 first round picks.

Wtf are you on about? Pickett would have been our (very close) second best goal scorer in each season 2021-2024, inclusive. He's also kicked 30+ in each of the last 4 seasons. You'd have to go back to 2013-15 Wingard to find a Port player who's done the same.

In fact, he has comfortably kicked more goals across the last 4 seasons (148) than any Port player (next closest Marshall on 125).

If a player of Kozzie's calibre is even remotely available it would be gross negligence not to pursue that opportunity as hard as we could.

 

[Brian McGee]

If they get pick 4 from Adelaide for Oliver, they could split their other first round pick and give us one of those with 4. That will probably get it done.

Otherwise, the next year's first round pick so we can death-ride them.

That would be nice, but I can’t imagine even Adelaide are dumb enough to trade pick 4 for Oliver. Prime Oliver maybe but not the current version.

 

[Schulzenfest]

If you would prefer a magic beans draft pick to a guy who has only just turned 23 and is one of the premier small forwards in the competition (keeping in mind we've been playing a rotating cast of the likes of McEntee, Evans and Narkle in that role all year), then you quite simply don't understand list management.

Pickett is young, proven, and fills a need. We're in a premiership window but he still has a decade of football in him, he's the perfect age where he immediately improves us without selling out the future. Draft picks, even high draft picks, bust all the time. If Houston wants to go to Melbourne we should absolutely be throwing the kitchen sink at Pickett to convince him to come the other way.

 

[chiwigi]

How the F8ck would I know. Move on tiger, im a fan.

In a world of weird troll accounts, you are certainly one of them.

 

[Addy23]

Wtf are you on about? Pickett would have been our (very close) second best goal scorer in each season 2021-2024, inclusive. He's also kicked 30+ in each of the last 4 seasons. You'd have to go back to 2013-15 Wingard to find a Port player who's done the same.

In fact, he has comfortably kicked more goals across the last 4 seasons (148) than any Port player (next closest Marshall on 125).

If a player of Kozzie's calibre is even remotely available it would be gross negligence not to pursue that opportunity as hard as we could.

I'm not saying I wouldn't have him. I'm saying he's been highly valued purely because Houston is rumoured to go to Demons. Many think Houston is worth a top 10 pick and another first rounder.

If I was doing a deal for Kozzie, I'm not trading a top 10 pick and first round.

And many here are okay with a straight swap which is grossly undervaluing an All-Australian (potentially dual) who's in the form of his life.

I would give away a top 10 pick but that's only because he's got a contract till 2027. There's a reason Pickett hasn't made AA yet, and it's because he's not elite in most categories for a small forward. Melbourne only have Fritsch and Pickett (and JVR who's coming up) as their forward targets so he gets a lot more opportunities. In a forward line with MG, Esava, Rioli, SPP and one of Dixon/Marshall, Pickett won't be getting the same type of direct entries to him

 

[FishingRick04]

Yes he does and I would give up one first round pick for him.

But next year we will have Rioli, SPP and I think Benny Barrett could make an impact. So I don't know that he improves us that much.

But would I love to see Pickett in Port colours. Sure.

On the other hand if we could get pick 4 say, assuming they get that for Oliver going to Adelaide and could draft a mid who will take Ollie's place in a few years, then you have to grab that succession plan.

If we got pick 4 and a pick in the teens for Dan, I’d be happy. I’m in the camp we have Rioli, SPP and insert defensive small FWD. Pickett and Rioli may clash anyway

 

[Chewy316]

isn't Burton contracted for 2025?

He is, but they'll move him on if they can.

 

[Ford Fairlane]

He is, but they'll move him on if they can.

He can't go to Adelaide, he hates them

 

[Addy23]

If you would prefer a magic beans draft pick to a guy who has only just turned 23 and is one of the premier small forwards in the competition (keeping in mind we've been playing a rotating cast of the likes of McEntee, Evans and Narkle in that role all year), then you quite simply don't understand list management.

Pickett is young, proven, and fills a need. We're in a premiership window but he still has a decade of football in him, he's the perfect age where he immediately improves us without selling out the future. Draft picks, even high draft picks, bust all the time. If Houston wants to go to Melbourne we should absolutely be throwing the kitchen sink at Pickett to convince him to come the other way.

Again my point was NEVER that I'd prefer Barrett over Pickett.

My point was that it should never be a straight swap or steak knives added. Any list management in their right mind would realise the value of Houston and not undersell it purely because of the attractive proposition of having Pickett.

Houston has 103 SI and 7 goals as a Halfback. Pickett has 98 SI and 30 goals as a small forward. DBJ has 103 SI and 22 goals. SPP averaged very similar numbers last year to what Pickett is this year.

We aren't even talking about Houston's defensive impact here, but the attacking impact he has on our side is phenomenal. If you replace Pickett with DBJ in our line-up, our output might marginally improve for small forwards whereas there's no readily replaceable HB for Houston in the comp.

Objectively speaking, a straight swap (or added steak knives) would mean we are trading away 2 first rounders for a improvement, albeit minor, in our small forward department while copping a hit in our backline.

I'm okay with trading out Houston, but he's got 3 years left on his contract and we have to extract all value. We didn't put him on the trade table and from all accounts Melbourne approached him and remain the side interested so far.

 

[Chrizzt]

I'm not saying I wouldn't have him. I'm saying he's been highly valued purely because Houston is rumoured to go to Demons. Many think Houston is worth a top 10 pick and another first rounder.

If I was doing a deal for Kozzie, I'm not trading a top 10 pick and first round.

And many here are okay with a straight swap which is grossly undervaluing an All-Australian (potentially dual) who's in the form of his life.

I would give away a top 10 pick but that's only because he's got a contract till 2027. There's a reason Pickett hasn't made AA yet, and it's because he's not elite in most categories for a small forward. Melbourne only have Fritsch and Pickett (and JVR who's coming up) as their forward targets so he gets a lot more opportunities. In a forward line with MG, Esava, Rioli, SPP and one of Dixon/Marshall, Pickett won't be getting the same type of direct entries to him

Except he quite literally is rated as elite as a small forward by Champion Data.

Melbourne would absolutely want more than just one first round pick for Pickett, and they would be absolutely right in wanting that. Elite small forwards don't grow on trees - and are certainly much harder to find than half back distributors.

Houston is brilliant, but Kozzie + steak knives is probably fair, and would be in our best interest given the state of our forward line.

Very high chance that Barrett never plays an AFL game - don't want to be banking the team's future success on him.

 

[Jello_B]

If they get pick 4 from Adelaide for Oliver, they could split their other first round pick and give us one of those with 4. That will probably get it done.

Otherwise, the next year's first round pick so we can death-ride them.

Where is the mention of Oliver going to the Crows? I thought this was last year?

 

[Wargreymon90]

Kozzie, Rioli, SPP is pretty enticing

 

[Alberton Proud]

We should be doing everything possible to hang onto both Dan and Bergman

 

[Ford Fairlane]

Where is the mention of Oliver going to the Crows? I thought this was last year?

There's been an undercurrent this year that it could be on again.

AFL News 2024: Melbourne, Clayton Oliver trade tension, Adelaide Crows interest, AFL Trade Period, Footy Classified

Melbourne could enter conversations with Clayton Oliver to seek a trade in the coming weeks. Adelaide is the first club keen to land him.

wwos.nine.com.au

 

[Jello_B]

There's been an undercurrent this year that it could be on again.

AFL News 2024: Melbourne, Clayton Oliver trade tension, Adelaide Crows interest, AFL Trade Period, Footy Classified

Melbourne could enter conversations with Clayton Oliver to seek a trade in the coming weeks. Adelaide is the first club keen to land him.

wwos.nine.com.au

Thanks for this mate.
Surely they went stupid enough to trade 4 for him though.

 

[Ford Fairlane]

Thanks for this mate.
Surely they went stupid enough to trade 4 for him though.

They do love a statement signing.

Sometimes the statement is "I'm an idiot"

 

[Scodges]

Pickett has been mentioned quite a lot on this thread, so I thought I’d ask those in the know, did his Uncle Byron really encourage him to re sign with Melbourne, or is that bull shite ?


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