That’s like 16 more goals a year, plus age and it’s taking an extra 10 contested marks a year, probably has alot to do with the 16 extra goals he kicks. Then how young he is.
Traded Rory Lobb - [Traded to the Bulldogs for #30 and F2]
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Age, potential, needs at a club.. there is a bit more nuance to comparing trade value as more than just how many times he catches the ball or kicks the ball.
So you agree with me and not the original poster that Lobbs averages alone aren't enough to go on when valuing him as a trade?
That's really not alot when stretched over 22 rounds
Correct. The fact Lobb is 30 next yr means his value takes a hit. Just like if he was 23, then he'd get slightly more as a result. Which is why comparing Naughton to Lobb is comical.
The comparisons of Lobb & Naughton are very laughable. Better to compare Lobb to someone his age and role. Naughton is a pure forward and Lobb is a Fwd/ruck. Best comparison is Sam Reid.
You would not give up a first for Reid even back in 2019 when he played all 22 games.
I would of taken Reid over Lobb back then too. Hell even Reid now is better than Lobb. He just does a lot more work than Lobb off the ball and with less time on ground. He was pivotal in getting swans to the GF.
You would not give up a first for Reid even back in 2019 when he played all 22 games.
I would of taken Reid over Lobb back then too. Hell even Reid now is better than Lobb. He just does a lot more work than Lobb off the ball and with less time on ground. He was pivotal in getting swans to the GF.
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I think the bulldogs will end up getting creative and get a 3rd club involved.
Pick 29 won’t do it and pick 11 is overs. IMO they will end up trading pick 11 for a later pick somewhere between 16- 22 with a sweetener (depending on how far back it is) f2 or F1 pick swaps etc
Freo would get: dogs downgraded pick let’s just call it 18 for arguments sake.
Freo would lose: Lobb
Dogs will get: Lobb and a future second(or some other form of compensation.)
Dogs will lose: pick 11
3rd Club will lose: (roughly) later first round pick and future second
Will gain: pick 11
That then values a contracted forward that they don’t want to lose for a late 1st rounder/early second rounder.
Pick 29 won’t do it and pick 11 is overs. IMO they will end up trading pick 11 for a later pick somewhere between 16- 22 with a sweetener (depending on how far back it is) f2 or F1 pick swaps etc
Freo would get: dogs downgraded pick let’s just call it 18 for arguments sake.
Freo would lose: Lobb
Dogs will get: Lobb and a future second(or some other form of compensation.)
Dogs will lose: pick 11
3rd Club will lose: (roughly) later first round pick and future second
Will gain: pick 11
That then values a contracted forward that they don’t want to lose for a late 1st rounder/early second rounder.
He also said top 4, and yes we are flaky,
Do you go completely off your chops at everything?
Us not making finals in 2017 sounded ridiculous, it happened.
Not making too 4 this year? It happened.
Port missing finals this year? Happened.
Geelong never missing finals and winning a flag with their old team?
Collingwood one point from gf?
The bloke only had an opinion, and it was a pretty open ended opinion, in an attempt for him to enter intelligent discourse wth another poster.
WTF is wrong with that?
I only compared lobb to Naughton to show the fallacy of looking at averages when determining trade value. Lobbs averages were thrown up as a reason to not pay more than a second. But as ive proven naughton's aren't anymore impressive.
I've even conceded that Lobb isn't worth pick 11 but I think it's fair enough to say he's worth a pick in the teens based on what he can offer.
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I'd say there's a pretty big difference between a guy that is 29 and has kicked 30 goals in a season once and a guy that's 23 and has kicked 47 and 51 the last two seasons. Lobb's goalkicking output is impacted by the fact he's always been a second ruck and at times a first ruck but as a forward 143 goals in 140 games is nothing to write home about.
What would you pay for Jack Darling who is a year older than Lobb and averages 40 goals a season?
And I would hope the Dogs respectfully disagree. It's incredibly rare for a 30yr old to demand a first rounder in a trade, let alone one who's got a career-high goal haul of 36.
Media still talk about Darlings potential to be the next Wayne Carey so I guess the Eagles would want 2 first rounders
Belly noticed, that's why he's asking for two.
In summary, Lobb has value to Freo (or at least Freo supporters) that exceeds the expected value he can provide to the Bulldogs (or at least Bulldogs supporters), thereby creating a gap in any trade expectations. The solution is that Freo hold onto the contracted player so that neither club is swindled. Now go back to your lives.
Lobb was Freos best forward last year by a mile. There's a whole thread on the main board relating to how bad our scoring is. Our points for this season was equal to teams that finished 14th and 15th on the ladder.
We lose Lobb without a replacement and we will be stuffed next year and I reckon everyone at the club knows it. The Lobb trade has nothing to do with what pick he's worth, because on the whole the Dogs 2nd pick is about his trade value. The Lobb trade is about his position in our forward line set up. We'd be relying on a 2nd year Amiss to be our #1 forward, which he will be, but not in 2023. It's unfortunate for Lobb that Freo don't have a ready replacement to take his position, otherwise the Dogs 2nd rounder would get the trade done quickly IMO. It's unfortunate for Lobb that Logue left when uncontracted, given Freo less options. It's unfortunate for Lobb that he signed a 4 year contract. It's unfortunate for Lobb that his girlfriend took a job in Melbourne.
But losing Lobb and Logue in the same off season will set us back 2 years at least. No matter how good our backline and midfield is, we just won't be able to kick a winning score. IMO a low teens pick is worthless to us. We need a forward that can take contested marks and kick 30+ goals at least as a replacement for Lobb, and we need him in 2023. If we can get that player, the Lobb trade will happen.
We lose Lobb without a replacement and we will be stuffed next year and I reckon everyone at the club knows it. The Lobb trade has nothing to do with what pick he's worth, because on the whole the Dogs 2nd pick is about his trade value. The Lobb trade is about his position in our forward line set up. We'd be relying on a 2nd year Amiss to be our #1 forward, which he will be, but not in 2023. It's unfortunate for Lobb that Freo don't have a ready replacement to take his position, otherwise the Dogs 2nd rounder would get the trade done quickly IMO. It's unfortunate for Lobb that Logue left when uncontracted, given Freo less options. It's unfortunate for Lobb that he signed a 4 year contract. It's unfortunate for Lobb that his girlfriend took a job in Melbourne.
But losing Lobb and Logue in the same off season will set us back 2 years at least. No matter how good our backline and midfield is, we just won't be able to kick a winning score. IMO a low teens pick is worthless to us. We need a forward that can take contested marks and kick 30+ goals at least as a replacement for Lobb, and we need him in 2023. If we can get that player, the Lobb trade will happen.
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Pokemon is Life
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Nah, I go to bigfooty so I am away from my life for a little while. Thats no fun.
bh90210fan
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Forcing Lobb to see out another year will be more destabilising than letting him go if he’s cracking the shits.
Snuffaluphagus
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It’s been addressed already but he really can’t afford to do that, it could literally cost him like half a mill if he chucks the shits and has a bad year
bh90210fan
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Dogs just say they’ll pick him up next year regardless
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We forced him to play for us this year and he had his best ever season. Rory is plainly a complicated psychological specimen.
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Snuffaluphagus
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Yeah but if he has a poor year or is injured for a large part of it, at his age, the deal is going to be changed, would be negligent for them not to.
What you've just described is an incentive to not play not an incentive to play
Snuffaluphagus
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Injured through poor prep, if he actually just refused to play it’d be even worse for him
Why would it be worse? Jones played QAFL football this year and got a 3 year contract no reason Lobb can't sit out the year not risk injury or form drop and do the same
bh90210fan
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You forced him to play after he gave short notice last year he wanted out. Now, a year on you’ve understood his position for a long time and it could blow up quite easily if you don’t look to accommodate a move for him. He’ll be less motivated, there’ll be fractures within the playing group and it’s just a bad look for any other potential players you’re looking to trade into the club in the future. I don’t think forcing players to stay on, especially veterans is good for club culture. Not worth it.
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