Land of the Giants
Premiership Player
Here’s a fun fact to consider, as we turn our attention to the derby on Saturday.
The Swans have kicked forty goals to eighteen in the second halves of their last four games. That’s right, an average of five goals each in the third and fourth quarters against the Crows, Cats, Bulldogs and Blues. Not bad, is it?
By contrast, we’ve kicked sixteen in the second halves of our last four games, against Port, the Hawks, Cats and Bulldogs. An average of two goals each per third and fourth quarter. At least we exceeded that in the third quarter against Port, with three goals. Just warming up for next week!
But let’s get serious. As things stand, the Swans are the team to beat for this year’s flag. They’re already guaranteed to play finals. It’s worth looking at why they’re playing so well, so let’s start down back.
The strength of the Swans has been their turnover game. They’re highly effective at scoring from opposition ground-ball turnovers in their defensive half. In that regard, they’re in a class of their own.
They tend to avoid one-on-one contests in defence, which is pretty much the polar opposite of us. Usually, one of them spoils whenever the ball comes into their back line, then they converge as a group to have it cleared. This was quite obvious at times against the Crows on Saturday night, even when they could have taken an easy mark. Having gained control, they tear through the opposition to set up attacking forays.
They prefer scoring from turnovers and forward entries. Last time at the SCG, Taylor, Buckley, Idun and HH took plenty of intercept marks, which throttled most of their forward line (McDonald, Amartey and Papley only kicked three goals between them). It’s just that Hayward had a day out and almost every one of their midfielders scored. Against Geelong, it was Papley with four goals. Against Adelaide, it was Amartey, this time with nine.
As for their own turnovers, again, they’re in a class of their own at shutting down defensive rebounds from opponents. If their own lines are breached, they team up to shut down an opposition advance.
The Swans have demonstrated a hydra-like ability to overcome disruptions to their game plan. They’re very good at learning on the run, whatever the situation. Having said that, the hydra didn’t have an infinite capacity to regenerate every head that was cut-off (according to Greek legend, Heracles and his nephew had to cut them off all at once - anyone know if they’re available for selection?)
Do they have any weaknesses?
They can be a bit slow to get started, if you can call that a weakness. They conceded the first six goals to Geelong a couple of weeks ago – almost one-and-half quarters - but over-ran them convincingly. Saturday night in Adelaide, they were behind until the end of the third quarter, then put on six goals in five minutes, and went on with it from there. It’s the opposite story to ours, which has been to start reasonably well, then fade out, especially in the third quarter.
So how can we beat them?
Only Richmond have bettered the Swans this year. The Tigers did their homework and shut-down their ground-ball transition game. Constant pressure caused their score from intercept possessions to collapse, and despite the gap in talent, the Swans did not recover in time. It was just enough to get the Tigers over the line.
For most of Saturday night, it looked like the Crows were on track for a similar upset. Constant pressure reduced the Swans midfield to 5.8 and made them look beatable. But they flicked a switch and it was game over.
We need to strengthen the line-up, if we can. We greatly benefited from Kelly’s return. We need Coniglio and Ash back, it that is possible. Coniglio would replace Angwin and Ash could take the place of Haynes.
Cadman was on ground for about half the game against Port and was subbed out after having virtually no impact. I don’t know if we’d debut Gruzewski against the Swans though. It would be a very big call. Peatling may get a recall based on experience.
FB [39] Connor Idun, [15] Sam Taylor, [27] Harry Himmelberg
HB [6] Lachie Whitfield, [44] Jack Buckley, [7] Lachie Ash
C [22] Josh Kelly, [12] Tom Green, [17] Finn Callaghan
HF [16] Brent Daniels, [5] Jake Riccardi, [14] Toby Bedford
FF [4] Toby Greene, [23] Jesse Hogan, [46] Callum M. Brown
FOL [32] Kieren Briggs, [10] Ryan Angwin, [33] Xavier O’Halloran
IC [28] Harvey Thomas [8] Callan Ward, [21] Leek Aleer, [20] James Peatling
The key to beating Sydney is constant pressure, right up until the final siren. We’ll lift because it’s them, but it has to be a whole-of-team effort for four quarters. That’s how they do it. Anything else is certain defeat.
According to the bookies, it will be an upset if we win. All the more reason to get out to Homebush and cheer the team on.
Onwards to victory!
The Swans have kicked forty goals to eighteen in the second halves of their last four games. That’s right, an average of five goals each in the third and fourth quarters against the Crows, Cats, Bulldogs and Blues. Not bad, is it?
By contrast, we’ve kicked sixteen in the second halves of our last four games, against Port, the Hawks, Cats and Bulldogs. An average of two goals each per third and fourth quarter. At least we exceeded that in the third quarter against Port, with three goals. Just warming up for next week!
But let’s get serious. As things stand, the Swans are the team to beat for this year’s flag. They’re already guaranteed to play finals. It’s worth looking at why they’re playing so well, so let’s start down back.
The strength of the Swans has been their turnover game. They’re highly effective at scoring from opposition ground-ball turnovers in their defensive half. In that regard, they’re in a class of their own.
They tend to avoid one-on-one contests in defence, which is pretty much the polar opposite of us. Usually, one of them spoils whenever the ball comes into their back line, then they converge as a group to have it cleared. This was quite obvious at times against the Crows on Saturday night, even when they could have taken an easy mark. Having gained control, they tear through the opposition to set up attacking forays.
They prefer scoring from turnovers and forward entries. Last time at the SCG, Taylor, Buckley, Idun and HH took plenty of intercept marks, which throttled most of their forward line (McDonald, Amartey and Papley only kicked three goals between them). It’s just that Hayward had a day out and almost every one of their midfielders scored. Against Geelong, it was Papley with four goals. Against Adelaide, it was Amartey, this time with nine.
As for their own turnovers, again, they’re in a class of their own at shutting down defensive rebounds from opponents. If their own lines are breached, they team up to shut down an opposition advance.
The Swans have demonstrated a hydra-like ability to overcome disruptions to their game plan. They’re very good at learning on the run, whatever the situation. Having said that, the hydra didn’t have an infinite capacity to regenerate every head that was cut-off (according to Greek legend, Heracles and his nephew had to cut them off all at once - anyone know if they’re available for selection?)
Do they have any weaknesses?
They can be a bit slow to get started, if you can call that a weakness. They conceded the first six goals to Geelong a couple of weeks ago – almost one-and-half quarters - but over-ran them convincingly. Saturday night in Adelaide, they were behind until the end of the third quarter, then put on six goals in five minutes, and went on with it from there. It’s the opposite story to ours, which has been to start reasonably well, then fade out, especially in the third quarter.
So how can we beat them?
Only Richmond have bettered the Swans this year. The Tigers did their homework and shut-down their ground-ball transition game. Constant pressure caused their score from intercept possessions to collapse, and despite the gap in talent, the Swans did not recover in time. It was just enough to get the Tigers over the line.
For most of Saturday night, it looked like the Crows were on track for a similar upset. Constant pressure reduced the Swans midfield to 5.8 and made them look beatable. But they flicked a switch and it was game over.
We need to strengthen the line-up, if we can. We greatly benefited from Kelly’s return. We need Coniglio and Ash back, it that is possible. Coniglio would replace Angwin and Ash could take the place of Haynes.
Cadman was on ground for about half the game against Port and was subbed out after having virtually no impact. I don’t know if we’d debut Gruzewski against the Swans though. It would be a very big call. Peatling may get a recall based on experience.
FB [39] Connor Idun, [15] Sam Taylor, [27] Harry Himmelberg
HB [6] Lachie Whitfield, [44] Jack Buckley, [7] Lachie Ash
C [22] Josh Kelly, [12] Tom Green, [17] Finn Callaghan
HF [16] Brent Daniels, [5] Jake Riccardi, [14] Toby Bedford
FF [4] Toby Greene, [23] Jesse Hogan, [46] Callum M. Brown
FOL [32] Kieren Briggs, [10] Ryan Angwin, [33] Xavier O’Halloran
IC [28] Harvey Thomas [8] Callan Ward, [21] Leek Aleer, [20] James Peatling
The key to beating Sydney is constant pressure, right up until the final siren. We’ll lift because it’s them, but it has to be a whole-of-team effort for four quarters. That’s how they do it. Anything else is certain defeat.
According to the bookies, it will be an upset if we win. All the more reason to get out to Homebush and cheer the team on.
Onwards to victory!
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