Preview Round 16: Essendon vs Geelong, Kardinia Park, Friday 02/07/2021 @ 7:50 PM

[eth-dog]

Observations

Geelong: The Cats had a terrible showing against Brisbane on Thursday, the Lions leading from start to finish in a dominant display against a fellow top 4 side. Cameron Guthrie was a standout for the Cats, having 34 disposals for the Cats whilst fellow midfielders Zach Tuohy and Isaac Smith were the only multiple goal scorers for the Cats with 2 apiece

Essendon: Essendon had a promising game against the top of the ladder Melbourne, eventually going down by 2 goals in a very promising display for the young side. Zach Merrett was a standout in the middle with 41 disposals, whilst Darcy Parish also had 37 to continue his purple patch through the middle. Harrison Jones and Peter Wright were solid up front with 2 goals apiece.


Head to Head (last 5)

Geelong 3-2 Essendon


Form Guide

Geelong: 4W 1L
Essendon: 3W 2L


Sportsbet odds

Geelong: $
Essendon: $
Line: 22.5 ($1.90)


Possible sides

Geelong vs Essendon

FB: Aaron Francis - James Stewart - Jayden Laverde
FF: Shaun Higgins - Tom Hawkins - Gary Rohan
HB: Nick Hind - Brandon Zerk-Thatcher - Jordan Ridley
HF: Shaun Higgins - Jeremy Cameron - Brad Close
MF: Kyle Langford - Archie Perkins - Brayden Ham
MF: Isaac Smith - Cameron Guthrie - Sam Menegola
HF: Alec Waterman - Harrison Jones - Jake Stringer
HB: Jed Bews - Jake Kolodjashnij - Jack Henry
FF: Peter Wright - Cale Hooker - Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti
FB: Mark Blicavs - Lachie Henderson - Tom Stewart
OB: Sam Draper - Zachary Merrett - Darcy Parish
OB: Darcy Fort - Patrick Dangerfield - Joel Selwood
IC: Matthew Guelfi - Dyson Heppell - Mason Redman - Will Snelling
IC: Zach Tuohy - Mark O'Connor - Brandon Parfitt - Tom Atkins
IS: Nik Cox
IS: Luke Dahlhaus

Geelong in: Darcy Fort, Gryan Miers; Out: Esava Ratugolea (omitted), Quinton Narkle (unused sub)
Essendon in: Will Snelling, Aaron Francis; Out: Devon Smith (omitted), David Zaharakis (unused sub)


Geelong defence vs Essendon forward line

Essendon have been the second most efficient forward line in the league this season, kicking a goal 25.44% of the time it enters their forward 50. Geelong have been the 6th best defence in the league this season, conceding a goal only 21.32% of the time it enters their defensive 50. Cale Hooker's early season form was a standout but has struggled recently and it won't get any easier for him with Lachy Henderson around the corner. The interesting one for Geelong is who goes to Harrison Jones, whether it be Jack Henry or Jake Kolodjashnij or even Tom Stewart, whilst Jed Bews will head to gun small Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti, who has struggled against the Cats recently.


Midfield/rucks battle

Essendon are 14th and 17th in clearance and contested possession difference so far this season respectively, one of the weakest inside teams in the AFL, whilst Geelong are 2nd and 1st in these areas respectively as well. Essendon's inside struggles have been despite Darcy Parish having a career best year, averaging 31.3 disposals, 7.7 clearances and 13.1 contested possessions, whilst Zach Merrett and Kyle Langford have been good in support for him despite being more outside players generally. Joel Selwood and Cameron Guthrie have been Geelong's main men inside, both averaging over 5 clearances a game, whilst Irishman Mark O'Connor has been a tagger to good effect this season. On the outside, Geelong are still very strong with the guys like Sam Menegola and Isaac Smith going against the less experienced Brayden Ham and Matt Guelfi on the outside. Rucks wise, Sam Draper will be hoping for a big game against Darcy Fort and Mark Blicavs.


Geelong forward line vs Essendon defence

Geelong have been the 7th most efficient forward line this season so far, kicking a goal 22.83% of the time it enters their forward 50. Essendon have struggled defensively this season, conceding a goal 24.49% of the time it enters their defensive 50, 15th in the AFL. There are three big match ups in this third of the ground, with James Stewart likely to take Jeremy Cameron and young Brandon Zerk-Thatcher the big task of taking on Tom Hawkins, who has been in All Australian form this season again with his ability to kick goals and set his teammates up, and finally Gary Rohan, who will get attention from the much improved Jayden Laverde, both having career best seasons this year.


X-Factor Player

I feel like this is one of the games Brandon Parfitt will break open with his speed and great kicking, he will be one to stop for the Bombers.


Key stat

Geelong: Clearances. They're one of the best in the business on the inside, and it is vital in their games.

Essendon: Offensive efficiency. They're up against one of the strongest back lines in the AFL and need to break it if they're to win.


Tip

Gonna struggle here. Geelong by 27

 

[Kyptastic]

I think we could beat them at another ground, but they defend Kardinia so well that our lack of connection between the midfield and the forwards will cost us

 

[RearNaked]

Look forward to another close loss with umpire ****ery

 

[VelvetSledge]

At the moment I feel as though it doesn’t matter if we play well or not.

We‘ll be shafted if it’s close.

 

[Bombers36]

I think we might see;-

OUT: Hooker & Cox (managed), Smith & Zerk (omitted)
IN: Bryan, Zakka, Durham, Francis

TEAM:

Francis Stewart Laverde
Heppell Ridley Hind
Guelfi Langford Ham
Perkins Jones Waterman
Stringer 2MP Tippa

Draper Parish Merrett

Bench: Redman Zakka Durham Bryan
SUB: Cox

I give us virtually no chance to win this game but as long as we are competitive like we were against the Demons I'll be happy

 

[JT_the_Man]

Win.

 

[sameolds33]

If they play like they did against Lions we can win. But we will have to play like we did v WCE. Our team is capable if not likely.

 

[ant555]

I know it will not happen and would be very harsh and I deserve a bit of stick for saying it but I would play Phillips and Draper to ruck and leave 2MP at FF and not play Hooker.

 

[BomberTime]

Snelling and Shiel any chance this week?

 

[ant555]

Snelling and Shiel any chance this week?

Shiel was on air last week saying no. Not 100% on Snelling but is doubtfull.

 

[sameolds33]

I know it will not happen and would be very harsh and I deserve a bit of stick for saying it but I would play Phillips and Draper to ruck and leave 2MP at FF and not play Hooker.

It's an option. My feeling is that our team is more confident with Hooker in it, providing experience and encouragement forward, in the same way our defence is better for Heppell playing that role in our back line. I don't think 2MP can provide the necessary support and structure in his first year. Would like to see Phillips back in the team.

 

[Loonerty]

May wanna check the date there

 

[eth-dog]

May wanna check the date there

... I blame my massive hangover

 

[JayJ20]

The second best defence in the comp behind Melbourne. It'll be interesting to see if we've learned anything from yesterday's game. Winning at KP is very difficult at the best of times so I doubt we win. Hopefully we show the same level of effort as yesterday.

In: Snelling (if fit), Francis
Out: Ham, BZT (very stiff though because he was decent yesterday)

 

[Vander18]

I know it will not happen and would be very harsh and I deserve a bit of stick for saying it but I would play Phillips and Draper to ruck and leave 2MP at FF and not play Hooker.

I don’t mind it but why not use Bryan as the forward/second ruck?

Has some real talent as a footballer, no reason he can’t contribute as a forward. In fact, he has to develop as a forward if he wants to play given Draper is ahead of him as #1 ruck.

Would offer more than Phillips in this role.

 

[ant555]

I don’t mind it but why not use Bryan as the forward/second ruck?

Has some real talent as a footballer, no reason he can’t contribute as a forward. In fact, he has to develop as a forward if he wants to play given Draper is ahead of him as #1 ruck.

Would offer more than Phillips in this role.

Bryan has only been average recently and has not actually been playing forward a lot in the VFL. I am all for his development and I rate him but my eyes are currently telling me he is not ready for AFL yet.

 

[naraku]

I know a few Geelong supporters and they're a bit nervous about this match.
They're worried Draper will dominate giving first use to our midfield and our speed.



I would be feeling a bit more confident if it wasn't at the cattery, but as long as we don't get smashed and show something like we did last night.

In: Phillips/Bryan, Francis
Out: Smith, Hooker.

OK, no way Smith gets omitted but he should go to the 2's. Hooker "managed".

 

[The Devils Advocate]

We will win this one.

 

[MiguelM]

I know it will not happen and would be very harsh and I deserve a bit of stick for saying it but I would play Phillips and Draper to ruck and leave 2MP at FF and not play Hooker.

Absolutely thinking the same. Hooker has cost us badly last 2 games, his job is to either mark, or get the ball to ground, a rest might freshen him up.

I would also bring in either Zakka or Snelling (if fit) for Smith. Smith was better this week, but needs to reign in the ump abuse. They don't like him. Don't give them an excuse to pay a free, undisciplined

 

[Ati Tude]

Hooker is our leading goal kicker. He won't be dropped. Also makes it easier for Jones and 2MP. What we need is the talls to compete and get the ball to ground, which we couldn't do against May and Lever. Seeing some highlights today, May and Lever marked too many when there was actually a contest, let alone the uncontested marks they got.

 

[ghostdog]

I think we might see;-

OUT: Hooker & Cox (managed), Smith & Zerk (omitted)
IN: Bryan, Zakka, Durham, Francis

TEAM:

Francis Stewart Laverde
Heppell Ridley Hind
Guelfi Langford Ham
Perkins Jones Waterman
Stringer 2MP Tippa

Draper Parish Merrett

Bench: Redman Zakka Durham Bryan
SUB: Cox

I give us virtually no chance to win this game but as long as we are competitive like we were against the Demons I'll be happy

I think Phillips was best on ahead of Bryan last week? Worth seeing how they fare today first before making Bryan an auto in.

...on the other hand, rebuild in effect. Maybe Bryan plays, but that would be harsh on Phillips.

 

[Donakebab]

Hooker is our leading goal kicker. He won't be dropped. Also makes it easier for Jones and 2MP. What we need is the talls to compete and get the ball to ground, which we couldn't do against May and Lever. Seeing some highlights today, May and Lever marked too many when there was actually a contest, let alone the uncontested marks they got.

Geelong will do the exact same with Stewart, Henderson and Henry.

 

[Ati Tude]

Geelong will do the exact same with Stewart, Henderson and Henry.

No doubt. But I would rather be bombing long to Hooker than to Walla, which is what will happen if Hooker isn't there.

 

[Donakebab]

I think Phillips was best on ahead of Bryan last week? Worth seeing how they fare today first before making Bryan an auto in.

...on the other hand, rebuild in effect. Maybe Bryan plays, but that would be harsh on Phillips.

Flip was huge last week while Bryan was quite and a bit disappointing.

VFL is on 7 at midday today, so we'll get a better look at potential ins.

 

[craffles]

Zakka is so unfairly maligned whilst Cox plays on the wing week in week out getting barely any touches and going missing for huge patches. I also think that we need to start looking at getting Heppell into the guts for a bit. Our delivery inside forward last night was abysmal and Ham was a huge problem with that.

Out: Ham, Cox (draper on notice)

In: Francis, Zaharakis