Prediction Round 22: Changes Vs West Coast Eagles + prematch discussion

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I've heard this point parroted so much about Tabs, I find it incredibly disappointing that so many think that


People think so lowly of tabs it's ridiculous, he has been a good AFL player whose biggets issue was his body letting him down

Such a massive whipping boy for no reason other than he took a bit longer to come on as a forward, if we weren't challenging and desperate for a forward in tabs early years then the opinion of taberner would be so much different


I can't wait til he is back and firing, will be a great addition to the team
100% agree...And I would add, if Tabs is fit and firing next season He is first one picked in forward line -
 
That was talking about next year


This week it's Corbett out for Taberner (if he is ready)
Even next year it's a bad idea, Treacy and Amiss are our forward duo, they need to play every single game they're available for. We're going backwards with our forward development if Taberner is starting games next year.
 
Taberner is one of the most accurate players in the AFL over the past few years
I seriously doubt there is evidence to support this statement.

Anyway, you rate him highly and that’s cool. I don’t (not highly). I never said he’s a terrible player but in my opinion he’s very limited. He performed ok most times without being a superstar and the fact is, we had no one else to play in that position that was better. Just stating how I see things. Maybe I’m wrong 🤷🏻‍♂️
 

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I seriously doubt there is evidence to support this statement.

Anyway, you rate him highly and that’s cool. I don’t (not highly). I never said he’s a terrible player but in my opinion he’s very limited. He performed ok most times without being a superstar and the fact is, we had no one else to play in that position that was better. Just stating how I see things. Maybe I’m wrong 🤷🏻‍♂️
Nah, he's been a decent set shot for a few years. It was one of the reasons he kicked as many goals as he did in that AA squad year - very accurate kicking. Agree with the rest though, if anyone on the coaching committee has Tabs first picked for the forwardline if fit they need to resign
 
I don’t think Tabs is ready to play a full game of AFL yet. Still on managed minutes at WAFL level, so I think it’s a moot point.

I’d play Reidy in place of Corbett, he himself says he’s a forward first ruck second so even if he only spends half his TOG as a ruck and the other half as a forward. It give’s Jackson a decent chop out to unicorn wherever we need him and allows Treacy to be a permanent forward and build the chemistry with Amiss.

Down back, I’d love to see Worner take Hughes spot, but can equally see value in switching Aish to the backline, Starting MJ and giving Stanley another shot at the Sub role.
 
Nah, he's been a decent set shot for a few years. It was one of the reasons he kicked as many goals as he did in that AA squad year - very accurate kicking. Agree with the rest though, if anyone on the coaching committee has Tabs first picked for the forwardline if fit they need to resign
There’s a “decent shot” and then there’s “one of the most accurate players in the AFL”. Maybe it’s semantics but to me that’s a big jump.
Anyway, I’ll let this rest.
I agree with the rest of your comment btw.
 
Jackson has had 17 out of 20 coaches votes the last two weeks playing against two likely top 8 sides where we've played our best footy in a while. I really really really doubt the coaches are going to change that set up.

Worner for Hughes is my guess as the only change
 
I don’t think Tabs is ready to play a full game of AFL yet. Still on managed minutes at WAFL level, so I think it’s a moot point.

I’d play Reidy in place of Corbett, he himself says he’s a forward first ruck second so even if he only spends half his TOG as a ruck and the other half as a forward. It give’s Jackson a decent chop out to unicorn wherever we need him and allows Treacy to be a permanent forward and build the chemistry with Amiss.

Down back, I’d love to see Worner take Hughes spot, but can equally see value in switching Aish to the backline, Starting MJ and giving Stanley another shot at the Sub role.
Probably will be the case. Aish was in the backline after Hughes went down injured.
Worner deserves a shot again. Probably Wilson as the safe option though
 
Probably will be the case. Aish was in the backline after Hughes went down injured.
Worner deserves a shot again. Probably Wilson as the safe option though
Aish was in the backline after Young started in the middle, with a few rotations through the middle.

Jaeger was in the backline after Hughes went down injured. I recall that we lost a few centre bounces in a row at that point.
 
One of the knocks on Jackson throughout the season was that his forward craft was good but he wasn't good enough to be the first choice ruckman, he's gone and proven his doubters wrong.

I don't care anymore what we've given up for him, I don regret bringing him in one bit.
 
I seriously doubt there is evidence to support this statement.

Anyway, you rate him highly and that’s cool. I don’t (not highly). I never said he’s a terrible player but in my opinion he’s very limited. He performed ok most times without being a superstar and the fact is, we had no one else to play in that position that was better. Just stating how I see things. Maybe I’m wrong 🤷🏻‍♂️
92.38 the past 4 years

70.7% accuracy

That's elite by modern standards, not many in the AFL have that record

Amiss is going at 73% over his career, everyone knows how crazy his accuracy is so far
 

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They are still strong in the forward line, but their defence seems the most depleted.
Midfield is where we should win, Jackson should be another AFLCA winner
 
I’m sorry mate but I personally don’t think Tabs is ever a certainty to nail any shot outside the goal square. God knows I saw him spray shots from close range a lot of times. Just for the record, Tabs is definitely a better player than Corbet but he really should be, considering the number of games he played and number of years in the system.
With respect, I think that's nonsense, and yes I've seen him spray shots before too.

29.13
37.16
23.8
3.0

So 92.37 the last four seasons. That's not too inaccurate. People will see what they wanna see, I guess.

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92.38 the past 4 years

70.7% accuracy

That's elite by modern standards, not many in the AFL have that record

Amiss is going at 73% over his career, everyone knows how crazy his accuracy is so far
That figure does not account for non-scoring shots. Taberner over that 4 year period has taken 150 shots, so the actual number is a still quite good 61.3%. Likewise, Amiss might be 73% for his career on scoring shots, but he's taken 64 shots over his career: that's a 59.4% accuracy (from what I've seen he's generally a laser until it becomes longer distance, at which point he tries to launch it and the direction becomes awry). Those figures can be found on the AFL website.

The other thing to account for is shot quality. I once read a book called Footballistics that made a similar point, but the online free data is limited (tho still available) to make it: one of the most accurate shooters in the modern era is Buddy. When you're looking at raw numbers and think about reputation, that seems almost unbelievable: his seasonal accuracy hovers around the 45-55% range over the past decade. However, that's because he takes low quality, high volume shots. This site only tracks shot charting btwn 2018 and early 2021, but if you compare Buddy's 2018 and 2019 seasons to Taberner's 2020, while Taberner on raw numbers was more accurate (60.4% vs 49.6% and 50.9% for Buddy), Buddy actually outperforms expected scores by a wider margin (+19% and +17% vs +11% for Tabs).


For a funny extreme example: Cam McCarthy was a better shooter from 50+ metres (47%) than from 25-49 m (45%).
 
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On the Tab's thoughts....
I was quite baffled as to how back in 2017 he was killing it at Peel and only managed 7 AFL games...
never quite understood why.

But in terms of the rest of this season, play him at Peel for the rest of it....give him a chance to find form then hit the pre-season on a roll :)
 
That figure does not account for non-scoring shots. Taberner over that 4 year period has taken 150 shots, so the actual number is a still quite good 61.3%. Likewise, Amiss might be 73% for his career on scoring shots, but he's taken 64 shots over his career: that's a 59.4% accuracy (from what I've seen he's generally a laser until it becomes longer distance, at which point he tries to launch it and the direction becomes awry). Those figures can be found on the AFL website.

The other thing to account for is shot quality. I once read a book called Footballistics that made a similar point, but the online free data is limited (tho still available) to make it: one of the most accurate shooters in the modern era is Buddy. When you're looking at raw numbers and think about reputation, that seems almost unbelievable: his seasonal accuracy hovers around the 45-55% range over the past decade. However, that's because he takes low quality, high volume shots. This site only tracks shot charting btwn 2018 and early 2021, but if you compare Buddy's 2018 and 2019 seasons to Taberner's 2020, while Taberner on raw numbers was more accurate (60.4% vs 49.6% and 50.9% for Buddy), Buddy actually outperforms expected scores by a wider margin (+19% and +17% vs +11% for Tabs).


For a funny extreme example: Cam McCarthy was a better shooter from 50+ metres (47%) than from 25-49 m (45%).
The point is on all recordable metrics, he is an accurate goal kicker compared to others around the AFL
 

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Prediction Round 22: Changes Vs West Coast Eagles + prematch discussion

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