Preview Round 3: Melbourne vs Essendon, Melbourne Cricket Ground, Friday 01/04/2022 @ 7:40 PM

[faible]

Why can't Wright be our long term forward option? Certainly looked like a dominant forward at times on the weekend (against good opposition too). He has run 14km for the game so his aerobic capacity is good, he kicks the ball straight and there is no reason he can't be a 40-50 goal forward for the next 5 years (when we should be contending). This view of Peter Wright as a stop-gap until we develop someone better is certainly not my view. Add Jones, and Wright will get more one-on-one opportunities. To my eye he looks to be just getting better. I think he is a real asset.

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Wright is a good FWD / RUC, or a passable FF IMO.

He's not the guy you build your forward-line around, but in a functioning forward-line he can certainly be a valuable component.

He works hard, kicks straight, is tall enough to trouble any KPD under a high ball. He just needs some quality around him, a genuinely smart leading CHF (Jones & Francis both do this reasonably well) means it's harder to double team Wright, and some ground level threats.

If - for example - we were running;

Perkins - Jones - Snelling
Tippungwuti - Wright - Francis(?) / Cox(?)

That would mean Wright gets a lot more opportunity to compete one on one given both Jones and Francis / Cox are fairly mobile targets, with Perkins / Snelling / Tippungwuti all being good at ground level.

 

[Lore]

 

[Ati Tude]

Wright is a good FWD / RUC, or a passable FF IMO.

He's not the guy you build your forward-line around, but in a functioning forward-line he can certainly be a valuable component.

He works hard, kicks straight, is tall enough to trouble any KPD under a high ball. He just needs some quality around him, a genuinely smart leading CHF (Jones & Francis both do this reasonably well) means it's harder to double team Wright, and some ground level threats.

If - for example - we were running;

Perkins - Jones - Snelling
Tippungwuti - Wright - Francis(?) / Cox(?)

That would mean Wright gets a lot more opportunity to compete one on one given both Jones and Francis / Cox are fairly mobile targets, with Perkins / Snelling / Tippungwuti all being good at ground level.

In fairness to 2MP, he has kicked 5 goals in 2 weeks against quality opposition and without Stringer there in rd 1 and no Jones, whilst also doing some ruck duties. That is a 50 goal season if he keeps that up. We need him to keep doing that, get similar output from Jones when he comes back, with contributions from Stringer, Walla, Martin, Perkins and Snelling. Not sure where I think Francis fits into any of that. Would also like to see Cox spend more time inside the 50 as might get some match up challenges for defenders given his height and agility.

 

[faible]

In fairness to 2MP, he has kicked 5 goals in 2 weeks against quality opposition and without Stringer there in rd 1 and no Jones, whilst also doing some ruck duties. That is a 50 goal season if he keeps that up. We need him to keep doing that, get similar output from Jones when he comes back, with contributions from Stringer, Walla, Martin, Perkins and Snelling. Not sure where I think Francis fits into any of that. Would also like to see Cox spend more time inside the 50 as might get some match up challenges for defenders given his height and agility.

So long as he's getting good opportunities he'll be OK, he's just not someone who can brute force goals the way the top tier forwards can against double teams.

With smart leading forwards alongside him to spread the defence, he should get enough looks 1 on 1 to get 1-2 goals a game

 

[MattF185]

I think until Jones is back (who knows because the club are the worst at telling fans about players availabilities), you have to play Wright forward permanently. As much as I don’t really rate Phillips, I think he has to play. You can’t have 7-8 minute bursts every quarter where Francis is the only key forward down there. Brisbane played Fort last week and I’m sure Phillips can be at least as average as him. There are rumours that BZT was playing with the “senior” side at training today whilst Stewart was playing in the “reserves” side. Going by that, I’m going:

In: Martin BZT Wanganeen (in the 22) Phillips
Out: Merrett Stewart Cox Ham (sub)

One last chance for Guelfi and Smith, with Snelling, Cox and Shiel to return in Round 4.

 

[MarkJohnson#1]

Where is Nick Bryan at? Can he come in to support Draper and allow Wright to play permanent forward?

 

[Keystone agony]

Archie says hi...

Love him in there, just feel we need his goal kicking ability at the moment with not alot else around. Snelling, Langers, HJ and Tippa playing... its a different story

 

[Vindicater]

Okay. Had a time to think qbout what I would do.

Out: Cox, Merrett and Stewart.
In: Martin, Hobbs and Brynn.

Martin and Hobbs come in to fill the wing and midfield role of Merrett and Cox.

Brynn comes in to play as a second tall/ruck combo with Draper and Francis shifts back where he belongs to cover Stewart.

 

[faible]

Okay. Had a time to think qbout what I would do.

Out: Cox, Merrett and Stewart.
In: Martin, Hobbs and Brynn.

Martin and Hobbs come in to fill the wing and midfield role of Merrett and Cox.

Brynn comes in to play as a second tall/ruck combo with Draper and Francis shifts back where he belongs to cover Stewart.

We'd be very short in defence against Jackson & Ben Brown with no Stewart back there. Ridley would be our tallest at 195cm, with Francis & Laverde as the two "tall" defenders at 193cm, and of those two Francis doesn't play 'tall'.

Brown and Jackson are both ~ 200cm and play tall.

If Stewart is out I suspect it will be for BZT, but Stewart still has BZT for size.

 

[Kyptastic]

Going live again at 7 with our match preview, can listen live or replay it through Twitter spaces

 

[donlav99]

"we need to drive a performance program"- Truck.

If he's serious about this statement, then Dev needs to be dropped. Cant be gifting game based on past performance or seniority.

 

[faible]

"we need to drive a performance program"- Truck.

If he's serious about this statement, then Dev needs to be dropped. Cant be gifting game based on past performance or seniority.

Who are our other pressure small forwards?

We have;

Wanganeen - 0 games
Hird - 0 games
Snelling - Injured
Tippungwuti - Injured

People should probably remember that Guelfi is playing as a pressure forward because we're scraping the bottom of the barrel right now, so Smith is also largely playing out of necessity and a complete dearth of leadership up forward.

I suspect it won't be all that long before he's replaced with someone like Hobbs or Wanganeen if Smith's body continues to limit his ability to impact, but he did have more pressure acts than Guelfi still, and both those young blokes are coming off 2 very interrupted underage years.

 

[eth-dog]

Who are our other pressure small forwards?

We have;

Wanganeen - 0 games
Hird - 0 games
Snelling - Injured
Tippungwuti - Injured

People should probably remember that Guelfi is playing as a pressure forward because we're scraping the bottom of the barrel right now, so Smith is also largely playing out of necessity and a complete dearth of leadership up forward.

I suspect it won't be all that long before he's replaced with someone like Hobbs or Wanganeen if Smith's body continues to limit his ability to impact, but he did have more pressure acts than Guelfi still, and both those young blokes are coming off 2 very interrupted underage years.

Hird's biggest weakness is that he's not a great pressure player IMO.

 

[faible]

Hird's biggest weakness is that he's not a great pressure player IMO.

Probably a fatal weakness for an AFL career as a small player unless he's an elite goal scorer or can kick off half-back like Daniel Rich.

 

[citizen-erased]

Who are our other pressure small forwards?

We have;

Wanganeen - 0 games
Hird - 0 games
Snelling - Injured
Tippungwuti - Injured

People should probably remember that Guelfi is playing as a pressure forward because we're scraping the bottom of the barrel right now, so Smith is also largely playing out of necessity and a complete dearth of leadership up forward.

I suspect it won't be all that long before he's replaced with someone like Hobbs or Wanganeen if Smith's body continues to limit his ability to impact, but he did have more pressure acts than Guelfi still, and both those young blokes are coming off 2 very interrupted underage years.

i'd argue Dev isn't in that mix either. and is in because he's match fit/experienced.
But he offers zero pressure and not a lot on the scoreboard.

Nature of Tippa and Snelling out and our poor recruiting of small forwards in recent years
I think Redman could be interesting. He's played defence (ok at it, not great), good kick, tough enough, can run.

given the risk we'll go 0-3 and we're up against the best defence in the league, i wonder if a tinker is worth experimenting with

FF - Stewart. Give him the May match up. He may not win it, but he's a big body who can stand him
CHF - Wright. attracts Smith in the absence of Lever and if he can separate enough from Stewart/May match up, should win them easily enough.
Other tall - rotates between Stringer & Cox. When stringer is in the middle or on the bench, Cox is forward. When Stringer is forward, push Perkins onto the ball and have Cox forward.
HFF - Martin & Perkins. Both are our best options whilst Langford is out. And both fairly handy
Smalls - Guelfi & Redman. Noting Redman isn't small, but he can run with a small defender (Bowey?) and expose them. Also able to play up the ground and attack the 50 with pace. Guelfi does what he does and sits on Hunt/Rivers

Martin Wright Perkins
Redman Stewart Guelfi
Cox on bench, Stringer on ball to start.

 

[donlav99]

Who are our other pressure small forwards?

We have;

Wanganeen - 0 games
Hird - 0 games
Snelling - Injured
Tippungwuti - Injured

People should probably remember that Guelfi is playing as a pressure forward because we're scraping the bottom of the barrel right now, so Smith is also largely playing out of necessity and a complete dearth of leadership up forward.

I suspect it won't be all that long before he's replaced with someone like Hobbs or Wanganeen if Smith's body continues to limit his ability to impact, but he did have more pressure acts than Guelfi still, and both those young blokes are coming off 2 very interrupted underage years.

I understand what you're saying regarding the lack of available options. Not an ideal situation, although Tex is clearly a better option than Smith (IMO).

Pressure acts numbers are relatively meaningless without an actual split of the type of pressure acts though. "Pressure Act (Implied): Reducing an opponent’s decision making time without physical contact ‘via corralling, closing space or chasing from behind’". A well trained Labrador could rack up pressure acts under this definition.

 

[eth-dog]

Probably a fatal weakness for an AFL career as a small player unless he's an elite goal scorer or can kick off half-back like Daniel Rich.

He can develop it though. He's pretty classy for a guy that's barely played.

 

[faible]

But he offers zero pressure and not a lot on the scoreboard.

Well the first part of that’s untrue, he offers more than any other full time forward at the moment.

I understand what you're saying regarding the lack of available options. Not an ideal situation, although Tex is clearly a better option than Smith (IMO).

I don’t think Tex is clearly better, we don’t know what his pressure is like, or whether he can run out an AFL game.

Undoubtedly he’s got that ‘something’ about him that all good small forwards need, so I’ve got high hopes for him.

He might need some full games at VFL level first though.

A well trained Labrador could rack up pressure acts under this definition.

Yet a cooked Smith still does better than most of our team at it.

He can develop it though. He's pretty classy for a guy that's barely played.

I hope so, both because we need more hard-working classy players, but also another Hird playing would be nice for the club.

 

[Kyptastic]

Would expect Phillips to come in to play alongside Draper. Need Wright up forward for structural reasons and can't have a part time ruck going up against Gawn and Jackson.

 

[citizen-erased]

He can develop it though. He's pretty classy for a guy that's barely played.

i like that he's small too
teach him the Weightman approach. he's gonna cop opposition stick for the surname. may as well make them hate him more as a ducker
esp if he's got a kick on him

 

[donlav99]

Yet a cooked Smith still does better than most of our team at it.

you've got to do something with your time when you can't get your hands on the footy

 

[Wahooti Fandango]

Hird's biggest weakness is that he's not a great pressure player IMO.

Really?

 

[Reximilian]

Kelly Stewart McGrath
Ridley Laverde Cutler
Redman Caldwell Durham
Stringer Philips Perkins
Francis Wright Wanganeen
Draper Parish Shiel

Guelfi Heppell Hind Martin

E: McDonald-Tipingwuti, Zerk-Thatcher, Bryan, Hobbs

In: Shiel, Philips, Wanganeen, Martin

Out: Merrett, Cox, Ham(omitted), Smith(omitted)

Redman to wing. Tippa as sub because he can change a game in 5 minutes. Not sure about Wanganeen or Hobbs. Hobbs is probably ready but Caldwell to get more time in the midfield and Wanganeen will at least be faster than Smith.

 

[Seb78]

Kelly Stewart McGrath
Ridley Laverde Cutler
Redman Caldwell Durham
Stringer Philips Perkins
Francis Wright Wanganeen
Draper Parish Shiel

Guelfi Heppell Hind Martin

E: McDonald-Tipingwuti, Zerk-Thatcher, Bryan, Hobbs

In: Shiel, Philips, Wanganeen, Martin

Out: Merrett, Cox, Ham(omitted), Smith(omitted)

Redman to wing. Tippa as sub because he can change a game in 5 minutes. Not sure about Wanganeen or Hobbs. Hobbs is probably ready but Caldwell to get more time in the midfield and Wanganeen will at least be faster than Smith.

No way Walla will be sub. Needs as much game time/match play as physically possible to get back up to anything near match fitness. Sitting on the pine for 4 quarters isn't going to do him any favours in the long run. 2 or 3 solid VFL games then get him in.

 

[MattF185]

No way Walla will be sub. Needs as much game time/match play as physically possible to get back up to anything near match fitness. Sitting on the pine for 4 quarters isn't going to do him any favours in the long run. 2 or 3 solid VFL games then get him in.

Yeah, Walla won’t be getting an AFL match until at least Round 9. And that’s being generous!