Toast Round 7 = Adelaide 58-59 Collingwood

[Heater3923]

What a win! Adelaide will be lamenting their poor accuracy. We could have been 10 goals down at the half.

That was, legitimately, some of the worst umpiring I've seen. For a chunk of that last qtr it felt like the umpires were trying to get the Crows over the line.

Just on the poor accuracy thing, and please don’t take this as me having a go at you - I’m just brain dumping at this point and trying to grasp how we won that game …. I actually think inaccuracy had little baring on the result.

We struggled to get it out of defence and Crows game was all about locking it in their fwd half and having repeat in50 entries. Sure they probably should have kicked straighter. But the problem for the crows would have been trying to win the next centre clearance.

We also seemed to force Crows to mark from 40+ out. They weren’t missing 20 meters out. They only had 9 marks ins50. So they weren’t getting quality deep ball ins fwd 50 which again demonstrates we contained their strengths - key fwd and height - very well.

Considering we sucked at getting it out of our back half from kick ins, I’d have taken my chances at a centre bounce any day. King had a solid stat about scoring on first crack. 1% chance of scoring a point from kick out vs 11% chance at scoring from centre clearance.

So crows high scoring shots were really just a reflection of dominating repeat ins50 entries from kick ins. You take that away from them, as we did in the last qtr - they wilted. Similar to how they wilted against Richmond.

My point is, as we were smashing them in stoppage and clearance, had they actually kicked straight - there’s a fair chance we’d have countered their goals from centre clearance anyway.

Weirdly had we played more conservative style, played wide and had forced more boundary throw ins, there’s a fair chance - with us dominating stoppage - we’d have scored more freely and got more scoring opportunities.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[Chrispiesssss]

 

[FAIRANDBALANCED]

Darcy Moore

30

Darcy Moore

Age

28

Ht

203cm

Wt

100kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.1

3star

K

7.0

3star

HB

4.1

3star

M

4.8

5star

T

1.6

4star

MG

169.1

3star

D

13.9

3star

K

7.3

3star

HB

6.6

4star

M

4.9

5star

T

0.7

1star

MG

182.0

3star

D

6.8

2star

K

4.2

2star

HB

2.6

3star

M

2.6

3star

T

1.8

4star

MG

87.4

2star

and Nathan Murphy

28

Nathan Murphy

Age

24

Ht

192cm

Wt

90kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.5

3star

K

6.5

3star

HB

5.0

4star

M

2.5

3star

T

1.5

3star

MG

176.5

3star

No current season stats available

D

11.5

3star

K

6.5

3star

HB

5.0

4star

M

2.5

3star

T

1.5

4star

MG

176.5

3star

were sensational. Mitchell, Sidebottom and DeGoey good, Jaicos got his hands on it, but was uncharacteristically poor with most of his disposals.

I can't think of anyone else who played ok to good. Pretty incredible to win when that is the case.

I get the rage for those two non decisions, but I'd like to draw the attention to the Michaelaney take possession in the back pocket, take three steps sideways to the boundary under no pressure from a Pies player. Not insufficient intent. Apparently. But DeGoeys off the side of the boot centre clearance was...and also Dawson taking on two tacklers getting owned and gone and then receiving a free kick because Sloane jumped into Daicos' back forcing him down onto Dawson... or maybe Pedlars free kick for high in a marking contest where Moore leapt straight up for the ball.

I mean we defintely get the ride sometimes too, when the noise of affirmation affects the umpires, but shit, isn't it sweet to win when you get royally screwed by those decisions?

 

[Frogs]

Just on the poor accuracy thing, and please don’t take this as me having a go at you - I’m just brain dumping at this point and trying to grasp how we won that game …. I actually think inaccuracy had little baring on the result.

We struggled to get it out of defence and Crows game was all about locking it in their fwd half and having repeat in50 entries. Sure they probably should have kicked straighter. But the problem for the crows would have been trying to win the next centre clearance.

We also seemed to force Crows to mark from 40+ out. They weren’t missing 20 meters out. They only had 9 marks ins50. So they weren’t getting quality deep ball ins fwd 50 which again demonstrates we contained their strengths - key fwd and height - very well.

Considering we sucked at getting it out of our back half from kick ins, I’d have taken my chances at a centre bounce any day. King had a solid stat about scoring on first crack. 1% chance of scoring a point from kick out vs 11% chance at scoring from centre clearance.

So crows high scoring shots were really just a reflection of dominating repeat ins50 entries from kick ins. You take that away from them, as we did in the last qtr - they wilted. Similar to how they wilted against Richmond.

My point is, as we were smashing them in stoppage and clearance, had they actually kicked straight - there’s a fair chance we’d have countered their goals from centre clearance anyway.

Weirdly had we played more conservative style, played wide and had forced more boundary throw ins, there’s a fair chance - with us dominating stoppage - we’d have scored more freely and got more scoring opportunities.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

Fair point

 

[manicmagpie]

Sitting next to Nick & Josh on the plane home:

 

[swoop42]

Meanwhile.......

 

[Mick F]

Sitting next to Nick & Josh on the plane home:

Have we lost Jen?

 

[Carringbush2010]

True grit, true grit.

 

[domus]

The biggest irony with Lewis is he grew up barracking for us before being drafted to the Hawks.

You wouldn't know it listening to him.

Dunstall is a big fan of the pies and the way we go about it.

 

[domus]

Have we lost Jen?

I love that movie. Cry every time at the end.

 

[manicmagpie]

I love that movie. Cry every time at the end.

It‘s incredible filmmaking because the story is absolutely ludicrous and barely makes any sense even with it’s own internal logic and yet it still grabs you and provokes that kind of emotional response, every time.

 

[Heater3923]

Just for the record...

From the kick in - 1% chance for a point, 0.5% chance for a goal. Ok fair enough.

11% chance for a goal from a centre clearance. OK. 11% chance for which team? For the attacking team? The defending team? Or you know... either team?

Dissecting actions to the nth degree based on the result and not the action is so tiresome.

I would say both sides generally speaking have an 11% chance from scoring from centre clearance. Each side generally would have basically a 1 in 10 chance of scoring from a centre bounce.

Now considering how shit Adelaide was in this actual game at winning a centre clearance - if Sidebottom scores a goal I’d say if they had 11% chance at scoring then we’d have had somewhere between 20-30% chance at scoring from centre clearance based on us winning almost 2/3s of the centre clearances for the game (11 to 6).

Regardless, I think kicking the point was the right move even if not deliberate. It would be much more difficult having to go 167m thru traffic rather than travel 83.5m with 6-6-6 format with three key fwds and your opponent with a key defender out injured.

I think Kings analytics reiterate a valid point, and state something pretty obvious. We didn’t even really defend the kick in very well considering, had crows not panicked, they had 8 seconds from centre wing to hit one of three targets inside 50. And that kinda plays into the analytics.

Despite us flooding the middle and not manning up on the wing, crows still choked and we marked. So you don’t even need to defend perfectly and you still have a 99% chance of winning by doing the bare minimum.

Had we kicked the goal, your giving crows 21 seconds from centre bounce 83m from goal and 3 tall fwds to bomb too - plus time to rove off the pack or force a stoppage ins50 - quite easily could have seen a draw or perhaps just another point for the crows and pies win by 5 points. Crows could have even lost the clearance and rebounded off half back quickly into space with 21 seconds on the clock due to the 6-6-6.

If I were the crows, I’d have rather Sidebottom kicked it and had a crack at winning the centre clearance with the 6-6-6 rather having to go coast to coast vs 18 man defence.

Thats all the analytics is really saying, it’s a probability of scoring from each situation. And if a coach has that information on hand, they’d be crazy not teach the players about it. Because it helps simplify the game for the 18 guys out there and make smarter decisions.

 

[NMBB]

My missus is a Crows supporter so I might be on the couch tonight. Jokes on her, the replay will be better on the big screen.

Right in front of you

 

[joff]

Lewis is an absolute *******.

Thought Brad Johnson was quite fair on us today. Called out some of the shocking umpiring decisions.

Regards Lewis =#rick.With regards to BJ about time and thanks its so infuriating to watch the game and see blatant frees and the commentary say nothing.

 

[joff]

If you get the chance, watch First Crack and the analysis of the last 2 minutes.
I was screaming for Sidey to kick the point, and they believe he did it deliberately. Which was a very smart move.

I watched and didn't understand what they were saying at first but then I realised yeah it was very smart to both get the lead and keep the ball at our end very smart by Sidey if intended

 

[joff]

Email the halfwit umpires here.

umpire.afl@afl.com.au

Thanks,email sent cheating buggers

 

[joff]

Well, I have to admit that was amazing.
My wife gave birth in the early hours Saturday morning… so proud and happy. Amazing. She was the GOAT.
But while she was recovering in hospital with our little fella, I took my 3yr old boy home after being at the hospital all day only to see the last 5 mins… (I did check the scores all day) and wow. Just means the world after I presented my 1 day old boy with his first little scarf this morning. Go Pies. Thank you.

Wow congrats mate that's one heck of a day you've had, a crazy pies win and a new son,amazing did you call him Nick,Darcy or Fly hehe well done again

 

[Black_White]

Wow congrats mate that's one heck of a day you've had, a crazy pies win and a new son,amazing did you call him Nick,Darcy or Fly hehe well done again

Fly Igniter.
I like it.

 

[joff]

Fly Igniter.
I like it.

Well mate we can only put forward our suggestions maybe they are still taking them.

 

[gouki88]

Did he actually fail a concussion test today? Is that confirmed? I thought Fly said in his press conference that he hadn’t?


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

Perhaps mistaken. Chrispiesssss had said so, but could be wrong. Might have gotten ahead of myself!

 

[Cousin of Daicos]

That's what makes the win more meritorious. We got absolutely nothing. It felt like the umps were actively trying to influence the result

On SM-N975F using BigFooty.com mobile app

"Felt like"

They 100% were

 

[gouki88]

Wasn't bad, but he didn't really impact the game today, for the first time this year. That's a Nick shocker

Disagree

 

[Vicky Park]

From Murphy himself No, fat lip & possible broken nose

I love this man. He’s got a ‘bit of a broken nose’ but ‘the head’s all good’ which is the ‘main thing’.

Bloody hell. He’s a mad man. I hope he can find a way to stay fit for the rest of the year, because he’s exactly the type of player you need to inspire on GF day.

Just sayin’.

 

[60 Yards Out]

Probably none. It will be argued that he had eyes for the ball.

If that's the case, what happened to 'players have a duty to protect the head'?
And why do we bother having a 'careless' grading in the system?

 

[FAIRANDBALANCED]

Dunstall is a big fan of the pies and the way we go about it.

He may say that, but it's with a heavy heart. Nobody has hated us more than Dunstall. He is a cancer to commentary. Can't see any positives and focusses solely on negatives. When he commentates our games, he is as biased as they come. He watches the game through the lense of our opponents, always talking about what they could have done differently to beat us.

Nearly all neutrals are against us so it's an easy thing to do and have nobody notice.

I thought Lewis just lacked excitement in his tone for the match. Very bland. Johnson was fine, Hudson was OK too. Obviously Ricciouto was a little biased.