eth-dog
Tier 1 WW Player
Observations
Adelaide: The Crows were in with a chance at 3 quarter time, only behind by 16 and kicked 2 of the first 3 goals but St. Kilda kicked 3 of the last 4 goals to win the game by 23 points. Ben Keays was a feature, collecting 24 disposals and 7 clearances, whilst Taylor Walker returned to form with 3 games.
Essendon: Essendon had a shocking loss at the hands of their bogey side Western Bulldogs, losing by 7 goals. Jayden Laverde had a good game, kicking 2 goals up front, whilst Adam Saad was effective off half back, having 23 touches, 3 rebound 50's and 7 intercept possessions.
Head to Head (last 5)
Adelaide 3-2 Essendon
Form Guide
Adelaide: 0W 4L
Essendon: 3W 2L
Sportsbet odds (currently unavailable)
Adelaide: $2.77
Essendon: $1.44
Line: 13.5 ($1.90)
Possible sides
Adelaide vs Essendon
B: Mason Redman - Cale Hooker - Adam Saad
F: Tyson Stengle - Fischer McAsey - Shane McAdam
HB: Jordan Ridley - Michael Hurley - Martin Gleeson
HF: Tom Lynch - Taylor Walker - Ned McHenry
C: Kyle Langford - Zach Merrett - Brayden Ham
C: Brodie Smith - Ben Keays - Paul Seedsman
HF: Conor McKenna - James Stewart - David Zaharakis
HB: Will Hamill - Daniel Talia - Rory Laird
F: Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti - Jayden Laverde - Orazio Fantasia
B: Tom Doedee - Kyle Hartigan - Luke Brown
R: Sam Draper - Darcy Parish - Mitchell Hibberd
R: Riley O'Brien - Brad Crouch - Matt Crouch
I: Andrew McGrath - Devon Smith - Aaron Francis - Will Snelling
I: Jake Kelly - Andrew McPherson - Chayce Jones - Bryce Gibbs
Adelaide in: Paul Seedsman/Bryce Gibbs; Out: David Mackay
Essendon in: Sam Draper, James Stewart, Aaron Francis, Martin Gleeson; Out: Shaun McKernan, Jacob Townsend, Ned Cahill, Andrew Phillips
Adelaide defence vs Essendon forward line
So far this season Essendon averaged 24.1% in terms of goals/inside 50, which currently has them 4th for inside 50 efficiency. Adelaide have conceded a goal 22.1% of the time it enters their forward 50, which is around the AFL average. Shaun McKernan will lead the Dons in attack, likely to be against good friend Daniel Talia, who is still one of the best stoppers in the AFL, whilst James Stewart is a possible returnee as well, having not played at AFL level for over two years, likely against veteran defender Kyle Hartigan. Jacob Townsend is the third "tall" for Essendon, and has fond memories of Adelaide, Tom Doedee looks like he'll take him as well as trying to support Talia or Hartigan in the air. The real worry for the Crows however is likely to be small Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti, having a good record against the Cows over the past 3 games against them.
Midfield/rucks battle
Adelaide have been bullied around the ball this year, being 17th and 18th for contested possession and clearance differential respectively, whilst the Bombers have been mid table in these departments, in 12th and 10th respectively. Essendon will be looking to dominate this area of the ground for once, with their inside brigade of Andrew McGrath, Darcy Parish, Devon Smith, Zach Merrett and Mitchell Hibberd likely to share the load that has been lost to Dylan Shiel's suspension and captain Dyson Heppell's injury. Adelaide will be looking to the Crouch brothers, Matt and Brad and young Tasmian Chayce Jones to inspire them on the inside, whilst Ben Keays has been effective as a tagger this year, expect him to go to Zach Merrett in order to quell his influence. On the outside, Brodie Smith has been one of the Crows best this season but the Bombers will hold an advantage here with Kyle Langford, Brayden Ham and Will Snelling playing well on the outside. As far as the ruck is concerned, Sam Draper may make his AFL debut this week after only two practice matches, he'll be up against Riley O'Brien has been one of the best in the AFL so far this season.
Adelaide forward line vs Essendon defence
Adelaide has kicked a goal 18.3% of the time they enter forward 50, 18th in the AFL. Essendon have been really good at restricting the opposition in this area, conceding a goal 18.4% of the time it enters defensive 50, 3rd in the AFL. Adelaide have shifted promising young key defender Fischer McAsey forward, who will likely get attention from the extremely experienced Cale Hooker, whilst veterans Taylor Walker and Michael Hurley will renew acquaintances, the pair having played on each other more or less every time the two sides have met since Hurley shifted into defence. Impressive medium defender Jordan Ridley is the logical match up for Tom Lynch, who will also be trying to shift off and support the two talls, and finally Adam Saad will try to quell the influence of Shane McAdam, an impressive mature age small forward after dominating the SANFL in 2018.
X-Factor Player
Ned McHenry looks good. No, scrap that, he looks really really good. One of the few shining lights for Adelaide so far this season, McHenry looks like he'll be a long term outside midfielder for the Crows if he gets it together.
Key stat
Adelaide: Offensive conversion. They absolutely need to kick a goal around 25% of the time they enter the forward 50 if they're a
Essendon: Clearances. Essendon, despite their outs, have a much stronger midfield this week and should put it on the stat sheet and scoreboard.
Tip
Adelaide are really really bad, and I reckon we can win this well now, Dons by 23
Adelaide: The Crows were in with a chance at 3 quarter time, only behind by 16 and kicked 2 of the first 3 goals but St. Kilda kicked 3 of the last 4 goals to win the game by 23 points. Ben Keays was a feature, collecting 24 disposals and 7 clearances, whilst Taylor Walker returned to form with 3 games.
Essendon: Essendon had a shocking loss at the hands of their bogey side Western Bulldogs, losing by 7 goals. Jayden Laverde had a good game, kicking 2 goals up front, whilst Adam Saad was effective off half back, having 23 touches, 3 rebound 50's and 7 intercept possessions.
Head to Head (last 5)
Adelaide 3-2 Essendon
Form Guide
Adelaide: 0W 4L
Essendon: 3W 2L
Sportsbet odds (currently unavailable)
Adelaide: $2.77
Essendon: $1.44
Line: 13.5 ($1.90)
Possible sides
Adelaide vs Essendon
B: Mason Redman - Cale Hooker - Adam Saad
F: Tyson Stengle - Fischer McAsey - Shane McAdam
HB: Jordan Ridley - Michael Hurley - Martin Gleeson
HF: Tom Lynch - Taylor Walker - Ned McHenry
C: Kyle Langford - Zach Merrett - Brayden Ham
C: Brodie Smith - Ben Keays - Paul Seedsman
HF: Conor McKenna - James Stewart - David Zaharakis
HB: Will Hamill - Daniel Talia - Rory Laird
F: Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti - Jayden Laverde - Orazio Fantasia
B: Tom Doedee - Kyle Hartigan - Luke Brown
R: Sam Draper - Darcy Parish - Mitchell Hibberd
R: Riley O'Brien - Brad Crouch - Matt Crouch
I: Andrew McGrath - Devon Smith - Aaron Francis - Will Snelling
I: Jake Kelly - Andrew McPherson - Chayce Jones - Bryce Gibbs
Adelaide in: Paul Seedsman/Bryce Gibbs; Out: David Mackay
Essendon in: Sam Draper, James Stewart, Aaron Francis, Martin Gleeson; Out: Shaun McKernan, Jacob Townsend, Ned Cahill, Andrew Phillips
Adelaide defence vs Essendon forward line
So far this season Essendon averaged 24.1% in terms of goals/inside 50, which currently has them 4th for inside 50 efficiency. Adelaide have conceded a goal 22.1% of the time it enters their forward 50, which is around the AFL average. Shaun McKernan will lead the Dons in attack, likely to be against good friend Daniel Talia, who is still one of the best stoppers in the AFL, whilst James Stewart is a possible returnee as well, having not played at AFL level for over two years, likely against veteran defender Kyle Hartigan. Jacob Townsend is the third "tall" for Essendon, and has fond memories of Adelaide, Tom Doedee looks like he'll take him as well as trying to support Talia or Hartigan in the air. The real worry for the Crows however is likely to be small Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti, having a good record against the Cows over the past 3 games against them.
Midfield/rucks battle
Adelaide have been bullied around the ball this year, being 17th and 18th for contested possession and clearance differential respectively, whilst the Bombers have been mid table in these departments, in 12th and 10th respectively. Essendon will be looking to dominate this area of the ground for once, with their inside brigade of Andrew McGrath, Darcy Parish, Devon Smith, Zach Merrett and Mitchell Hibberd likely to share the load that has been lost to Dylan Shiel's suspension and captain Dyson Heppell's injury. Adelaide will be looking to the Crouch brothers, Matt and Brad and young Tasmian Chayce Jones to inspire them on the inside, whilst Ben Keays has been effective as a tagger this year, expect him to go to Zach Merrett in order to quell his influence. On the outside, Brodie Smith has been one of the Crows best this season but the Bombers will hold an advantage here with Kyle Langford, Brayden Ham and Will Snelling playing well on the outside. As far as the ruck is concerned, Sam Draper may make his AFL debut this week after only two practice matches, he'll be up against Riley O'Brien has been one of the best in the AFL so far this season.
Adelaide forward line vs Essendon defence
Adelaide has kicked a goal 18.3% of the time they enter forward 50, 18th in the AFL. Essendon have been really good at restricting the opposition in this area, conceding a goal 18.4% of the time it enters defensive 50, 3rd in the AFL. Adelaide have shifted promising young key defender Fischer McAsey forward, who will likely get attention from the extremely experienced Cale Hooker, whilst veterans Taylor Walker and Michael Hurley will renew acquaintances, the pair having played on each other more or less every time the two sides have met since Hurley shifted into defence. Impressive medium defender Jordan Ridley is the logical match up for Tom Lynch, who will also be trying to shift off and support the two talls, and finally Adam Saad will try to quell the influence of Shane McAdam, an impressive mature age small forward after dominating the SANFL in 2018.
X-Factor Player
Ned McHenry looks good. No, scrap that, he looks really really good. One of the few shining lights for Adelaide so far this season, McHenry looks like he'll be a long term outside midfielder for the Crows if he gets it together.
Key stat
Adelaide: Offensive conversion. They absolutely need to kick a goal around 25% of the time they enter the forward 50 if they're a
Essendon: Clearances. Essendon, despite their outs, have a much stronger midfield this week and should put it on the stat sheet and scoreboard.
Tip
Adelaide are really really bad, and I reckon we can win this well now, Dons by 23
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