Preview Round 8: Adelaide vs Essendon, Adelaide Oval, Sunday 26/07/2020, 1:05 PM AEST

[Bombers36]

4 or so changes will probably be the norm from hereon in. Townsend looked slow and McKernan like he needs a rest. At this stage I'd have;-

OUT: McKernan, Townsend, Snelling, Hibberd
IN: Stewart, Francis, Gleeson, Cutler


Francis Hurley Saad
Gleeson Ridley McKenna
Redman McGrath Merrett
Langford Stewart Tippa
Laverde Hooker Cahill

Phillips Parish Smith

Bench: Zakka Ham Fanta Cutler


This is one of those games we need to bank if we are going to play finals....

 

[MiguelM]

Need to get the message to the players that you DON'T have to social distance during games

 

[Halftimehero]

We need to get Francis and Zerk-Thatcher playing, they’ll want to leave if they aren’t getting games and Hooker is on his last legs, just bloody play him forward and get the others in FFS.

 

[Halftimehero]

Look out old mate Wild Bill is lurking here, didn’t here a peep out of that peanut last week, we are living inside his head.

 

[TheGreatBarryB]

As if Francis can’t do as good a job as Townsend, why he’s not in the side is beyond me.

In: Francis, Gleeson, TBC,
Out: Redman, Townsend, Phillips

 

[ant555]

Observations

Adelaide:

Essendon: Essendon had a shocking loss at the hands of their bogey side Western Bulldogs, losing by 7 goals. Jayden Laverde had a good game, kicking 2 goals up front, whilst Adam Saad was effective off half back, having 23 touches, 3 rebound 50's and 7 intercept possessions.


Head to Head (last 5)

Adelaide 3-2 Essendon


Form Guide

Adelaide: 0W 4L
Essendon: 3W 2L


Sportsbet odds (currently unavailable)

Adelaide: $
Essendon: $
Line: 1.5 ($1.90)


Possible sides

Adelaide vs Essendon

B: Mason Redman - Cale Hooker - Adam Saad
F: Tyson Stengle - Fischer McAsey - Shane McAdam
HB: Jordan Ridley - Michael Hurley - Martin Gleeson
HF: Tom Lynch - Taylor Walker - Ned McHenry
C: Kyle Langford - Zach Merrett - Brayden Ham
C: Brodie Smith - Ben Keays - Paul Seedsman
HF: Conor McKenna - James Stewart - David Zaharakis
HB: Will Hamill - Daniel Talia - Rory Laird
F: Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti - Jayden Laverde - Orazio Fantasia
B: Tom Doedee - Kyle Hartigan - Luke Brown
R: Sam Draper - Darcy Parish - Mitchell Hibberd
R: Riley O'Brien - Brad Crouch - Matt Crouch
I: Andrew McGrath - Devon Smith - Aaron Francis - Will Snelling
I: Jake Kelly - Andrew McPherson - Chayce Jones - Bryce Gibbs

Adelaide in: Paul Seedsman/Bryce Gibbs; Out: David Mackay
Essendon in: Sam Draper, James Stewart, Aaron Francis, Martin Gleeson; Out: Shaun McKernan, Jacob Townsend, Ned Cahill, Andrew Phillips


Adelaide defence vs Essendon forward line

So far this season Essendon averaged 24.1% in terms of goals/inside 50, which currently has them 4th for inside 50 efficiency. Adelaide have conceded a goal 22.1% of the time it enters their forward 50, which is around the AFL average. Shaun McKernan will lead the Dons in attack, likely to be against good friend Daniel Talia, who is still one of the best stoppers in the AFL, whilst James Stewart is a possible returnee as well, having not played at AFL level for over two years, likely against veteran defender Kyle Hartigan. Jacob Townsend is the third "tall" for Essendon, and has fond memories of Adelaide, Tom Doedee looks like he'll take him as well as trying to support Talia or Hartigan in the air. The real worry for the Crows however is likely to be small Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti, having a good record against the Cows over the past 3 games against them.


Midfield/rucks battle

Adelaide have been bullied around the ball this year, being 17th and 18th for contested possession and clearance differential respectively, whilst the Bombers have been mid table in these departments, in 12th and 10th respectively. Essendon will be looking to dominate this area of the ground for once, with their inside brigade of Andrew McGrath, Darcy Parish, Devon Smith, Zach Merrett and Mitchell Hibberd likely to share the load that has been lost to Dylan Shiel's suspension and captain Dyson Heppell's injury. Adelaide will be looking to the Crouch brothers, Matt and Brad and young Tasmian Chayce Jones to inspire them on the inside, whilst Ben Keays has been effective as a tagger this year, expect him to go to Zach Merrett in order to quell his influence. On the outside, Brodie Smith has been one of the Crows best this season but the Bombers will hold an advantage here with Kyle Langford, Brayden Ham and Will Snelling playing well on the outside. As far as the ruck is concerned, Sam Draper may make his AFL debut this week after only two practice matches, he'll be up against Riley O'Brien has been one of the best in the AFL so far this season.


Adelaide forward line vs Essendon defence

Adelaide has kicked a goal 18.3% of the time they enter forward 50, 18th in the AFL. Essendon have been really good at restricting the opposition in this area, conceding a goal 18.4% of the time it enters defensive 50, 3rd in the AFL. Adelaide have shifted promising young key defender Fischer McAsey forward, who will likely get attention from the extremely experienced Cale Hooker, whilst veterans Taylor Walker and Michael Hurley will renew acquaintances, the pair having played on each other more or less every time the two sides have met since Hurley shifted into defence. Impressive medium defender Jordan Ridley is the logical match up for Tom Lynch, who will also be trying to shift off and support the two talls, and finally Adam Saad will try to quell the influence of Shane McAdam, an impressive mature age small forward after dominating the SANFL in 2018.


X-Factor Player

Ned McHenry looks good. No, scrap that, he looks really really good. One of the few shining lights for Adelaide so far this season, McHenry looks like he'll be a long term outside midfielder for the Crows if he gets it together.


Key stat

Adelaide: Offensive conversion. They absolutely need to kick a goal around 25% of the time they enter the forward 50 if they're a

Essendon: Clearances. Essendon, despite their outs, have a much stronger midfield this week and should put it on the stat sheet and scoreboard.


Tip

Adelaide are really really bad, but we're not great, Dons by 8

Come on eth. In Draper after two scratch matches in 12 months ? They are not even real games. Suspect he will need a couple more.

 

[eth-dog]

Come on eth. In Draper after two scratch matches in 12 months ? They are not even real games. Suspect he will need a couple more.

LET ME DREAM

 

[ant555]

As if Francis can’t do as good a job as Townsend, why he’s not in the side is beyond me.

In: Francis, Gleeson, TBC,
Out: Redman, Townsend, Phillips

Because he wanted to play defense. He got his wish and was playing well. Got injured and lost his spot. Side won. Did not get it back this week.
The question needs to be asked if he does not get in for the Adelaide game. He was average as a forward. He may well be able to do a better job but the reason he was out of the side was injury.

 

[Milanista28]

Out: Towner, Hibberd, Cahill, Redman, Phillips, Mackernan, Snelling
In: Francis, Stewart, Draper, Cutler, Mozzie, Gleeson, Zerk

Saad Zerky Hurley
Ridley Francis McKenna

Draper McGrath Parish
Langford Merrett Cutler

Fantasia Stewart Smith
Laverde Hooker Tippa

Ham Mozzie Gleeson Zaharakis

 

[TheGreatBarryB]

Because he wanted to play defense. He got his wish and was playing well. Got injured and lost his spot. Side won. Did not get it back this week.
The question needs to be asked if he does not get in for the Adelaide game. He was average as a forward. He may well be able to do a better job but the reason he was out of the side was injury.

I’m aware of that and prefer him in backline, but with serious lack of options up forward he’s a better option than Townsend who apart from opening game in March has been poor

 

[andleanback]

I’m aware of that and prefer him in backline, but with serious lack of options up forward he’s a better option than Townsend who apart from opening game in March has been poor

Francis would be no better than Townsend, he doesn’t train as a forward so you can’t expect him to come in and play well against an AFL level defender. He’d have terrible leading patterns and fwd pressure, someone like doedee would bath him then everyone would be calling for his head.

 

[ant555]

I’m aware of that and prefer him in backline, but with serious lack of options up forward he’s a better option than Townsend who apart from opening game in March has been poor

If Townsend had of kicked straight he would have been our leading goal kicker right now. He has not been poor every week. He does a lot of crashing in and the team stuff.He is not a star and has not been scintillating and is in fact slow and gets run off a bit. His spot would be under question. I do not disagree that it may well be the time to look at changing things although given Francis has been played exclusive back for over 12 months that change is unlikely.

 

[GUMBLETRON]

He was average as a forward.

At the time he was tried forward he was average everywhere - occasional flashes but without the fitness or application to do it across a game.

 

[ant555]

At the time he was tried forward he was average everywhere - occasional flashes but without the fitness or application to do it across a game.

So not having played there in any sort of game or training since would make him better ?

 

[GUMBLETRON]

So not having played there in any sort of game or training since would make him better ?

Being fit enough to play a game out now would make him better.

 

[ant555]

Being fit enough to play a game out now would make him better.

Well lets get him fitter and put him in the middle then !
Being unfit did not effect his contested marking or leading patterns as a forward.
Fitter does not make you better at forward craft. History says around 10 to 15 percent of defenders make it as forwards.
If he is to play forward he need to train and play the scratch matches as a forward.

 

[eth-dog]

Okay, have somewhat calmed down. Still need to make a few changes:

OUT: Redman (poor game), Zaka (so so soft), McKernan (played really really badly), Ham (sorry but one good game, one okay game and two poor games), Townsend (a v e r a g e)
IN: Francis, Gleeson, Cutler, Zerk-Thatcher, Stewart

FB: Francis - Zerk-Thatcher - Saad
HB: Gleeson - Hurley - Ridley
MF: Langford - Merrett - Cutler
HF: Fantasia - Stewart - Cahill
FF: Laverde - Hooker - McDonald-Tipungwuti
OB: Phillips - McGrath - Parish
IC: Smith - Snelling - McKenna - Hibberd

Absolutely have to move Fantasia and Hooker forward. Dropping Phillips was so tempting.

 

[Halftimehero]

In 2017 Daniher and Hooker were statistically the 2nd best KPF duo in the comp, one has hardly played since due to injury so why the hell would you take the other one away as well, especially considering our biggest issue is our forward structure and we have ample KPD’s sitting in the 2s.

Just play Hooker forward pleeeeeeaaaaase.

 

[srobbo]

Out- Smack, Townsend, Snelling, Cahill, Redman

IN- BZT, Francis, Mozzie, Cutler, Gleeson.

HOOKER - FFS play him forward. We simply aren’t capable of lowering our eyes going i50, so if we’re going to bomb it let’s have someone there who can clunk.

SMITH - If he wants to throw his weight around, he can do it sitting on the heels of Laird/B Smith. Needs to be hitting scoreboard too.

HIBBERD - Perfect match up for him here against the Crouches. Let him play in the middle & give him a chance to ply his trade. Play Merrett on a wing.

DO NOT DROP PHILLIPS EITHER. Yes he was an spanked last night by a crafty ruckman, but O’Brien is far from that. A workhorse yes, but Phillips will be up for some blue collar toiling.

 

[Joeyjoejoe]

PLEASE Hooker forward !!
We look so much more dangerous with Hooker FWD and Francis can play back.

B: Saad Hurley McKenna
HB: Ridley Francis Gleeson

C: Merrett McGrath Cutler
Foll: Phillips Parish Langford

HF: Fanta Hooker Zaha
F: Laverde McKernan Tippa

B: Redman , Smith , Ham , Cahill

OUT : Snelling , Townsend , Hibberd
IN: Cutler , Gleeson , Francis

 

[rumply]

very hard to get enthused for this after that garbage last night, send a message, drop 3 or 4, doesnt matter who...

 

[mike14]

It's pretty clear the forward line functions more by luck than design. It's very much a 'break glass in case of emergency' move, but is it worth trying TBC at FF? Play him as a (very, very) poor man's Hawkins where his role is just to make the contest for all our crappy long bombs into the fwd 50.
He doesn't have to roam the ground, it will just be repeat efforts from the goal square to around 40m out.
Gives a legit target, makes the opposition key defender accountable, allows Smack to play as a legit CHF roaming around. TBC can also take all the fwd 50 ruck duties which allows Phillips to setup behind the play and likely forces the opposition ruckman to push into defence, otherwise TBC should be able to dominate to our small forwards.
The downside is that his opponent can run off him easily, but our zone should counter that to a large degree, and if we can turn it over the smaller defenders providing coverage won't be able to match him for height/strength.

Not the answer to all our problems, but the 'kick it and pray' shit just ain't working.

 

[blitzer]

I'd play Hooker forward. At least this side would have a reasonable structure. We'd still have a tall target when McKernan goes into the ruck. We'd have an genuine inside midfielder played in position. Who knows we may even resemble a real football side.

B: Saad Hurley McKenna
HB: Ridley BZT Francis

C: Merrett McGrath Cutler
Foll: Phillips Parish Clarke

HF: Fantasia Hooker Langford
F: Laverde McKernan Tippa

Int: Zaka, Snelling, Ham, Smith

Ins: BZT, Francis, Clarke, Cutler
Outs: Townsend, Redman, Hibberd, Cahill

 

[bombreys]

Langford has had a good year until tonight tbf

I think he’s massively overrated by our fans.

He does do a few good things each game, but he also makes way too many basic mistakes and his defensive game is terrible.

 

[Ambrosia]

Draper isn’t coming in off one full 12v12 scratch match. Be reasonable.


Out: Redman, Townsend, Hibberd

If Hooker forward

In: Francis, Gleeson/BZT, Cutler

If Hooker back

In: Francis, Stewart, Cutler

Hibberd stiff but they’re playing him HFF/Wing then they may as well bring in Cutler.

Devon Smith needs to be moved out of the midfield rotation. He’s not a natural ball winner in congestion and is much better in a more pressure role as a HFF.