Analysis Score sources in 2024: the good and the bad

[carlton_99]

SCORE SOURCES FOR CARLTON IN 2024
Source: https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_stats_team.html?year=2024

Stoppage
Scores from stoppage: 39.2 points per game (2nd highest in AFL)
Opposition scores from stoppage: 41.8 points per game (2nd highest in AFL)
Differential: -2.6 points per game (#13 in AFL)

Centre Bounce
Scores from centre bounce: 13.8 points per game (4th highest in AFL)
Opposition scores from centre bounce: 13.6 points per game (4th highest in AFL)
Differential: +0.2 points per game (#9 in AFL)

Turnover
Scores from turnover: 56.4 points per game (2nd highest in AFL)
Opposition scores from turnover: 41.0 points per game (2nd lowest in AFL)
Differential: +15.4 points per game (#2 in AFL)

Defensive Half
Scores from defensive half: 37.1 points per game (2nd highest in AFL)
Opposition scores from defensive half: 32.9 points per game (7th highest in AFL)
Differential: +7.8 points per game (#5 in AFL)

Forward Half
Scores from forward half: 48.2 points per game (2nd highest in AFL)
Opposition scores from forward half: 40.4 points per game (9th highest in AFL)
Differential: +7.8 points per game (#3 in AFL)

Firstly, I will start with the good news which is that our own scoring has been really good from all five of these sources in 2024. As you can see above from the numbers we are ranked 2nd highest for all of them except points from centre bounce where we are still a healthy 4th. This is a massive improvement from 2023 where we ranked 5th (stoppage), 5th (centre bounce), 14th (turnover), 7th (defensive half), and 14th (forward half). All of this is really positive and becomes more so when you consider we are only 8th in inside 50s per game indicating that we have been ruthlessly efficient when getting it in there. This thought is backed up by the numbers which show Carlton ranked #1 for goals per inside 50, #2 for scoring shots per inside 50, and #2 for accuracy in front of goal. So essentially we are doing very well when it comes to the offensive side of the game.

The defensive side is a bit more of a concern but potentially not as much as it is being made to be (I hope...). When you look through the opposition score sources and the overall differential you see we are actually doing a very good job at defending turnover where we are conceding the 2nd least number of points per game in the AFL. This is the area that all the analysts tell us you have to have in good shape to contend.

However, the big area for improvement right now is our opposition scores from stoppage, including centre bounce. In 2023, we gave up the least number of points from stoppage per game and the 5th least number of points from centre bounce per game. You can see this has regressed significantly so far in 2024 where we are now giving up the 2nd and 4th highest scores from these sources respectively. Our ability to defend stoppage must be the number one focus of the coaching staff and playing group right now. We are allowing far too many easy exits from stoppage which lead to clean inside 50 entries and put our backline in a compromised position. The focus is always going to be on the defensive line when you give up a big score but this also has a lot to do with the midfield's inability to get any sort of delay on the ball.

The big question is why and personally I cannot pinpoint it which is why I thought this thread would be a good discussion starter - similar to the one regarding our clearance work earlier in the year.

Some might think it is personnel based and look at someone like Hewett who has been out of the team in our last two losses. But this is an area we have struggled with throughout 2024 based on the numbers so one inclusion may not change much. Others might think that it is related to us having too manh one-paced insidd mids that often get attracted to the ball meaning when it is not won we have opposition numbers outnumbering us on the outside leading to clean inside 50 entries. I believe this is what the coaches have identified as the issue as we have seen Hewett removed from the team in the last fortnight and Kennedy demoted to sub against the Dogs. The "new" core midfield group has been Cripps, Walsh, and Cerra in these games with assistance from Kennedy, E.Hollands and Fogarty. This is a midfield that should be much better at spreading from the contest, however, even with this change it has not led to any improvement in this area.

I also haven't touched on the backline itself which may be part of the issue. We obviously only play with one true key defender in Weitering supported by two intercept types in Kemp and McGovern. Is the long-term solution replacing one with another key defender (like a Taylor/Buckley partnership at the Giants)? Or will that hurt our ability to move the ball from D50 which was an issue when Young was in the team instead of a Kemp.

Any thoughts on what the specific issues may be whether it is related to personnel or system in the midfield/defence? And even better what some potential solutions may be.

 

[gbatman]

It says a bit about what we are seeing. At stoppages we really only have one mode or game plan and that is to attack. A lot of the better sides have the ability to switch from attacking and hunting the ball to balancing things up and being more about pressure and tackling. They can change their positioning, body work and structures around the ball and we don't.

We either win it and score or we lose it and get scored against.

Will it win us a flag? No sure, teams winning the flag have definitely excelled in pressure and tackling around the ball.

I look at Collingwood the previous two seasons, how little time the opposition have. Tackled immediately or if they do get free someone is quick enough to close on them. Sydney, how they keep the ball in close if they are challenged and cut off the outlets. No time and space and nowhere to go with a quick handball. We don't defend well at the stoppage. But we are generally great when we win it. Problem is, high pressure tactics from good sides bring us undone. Teams can pile pressure on us until the ball spills out and they win it. This is the moment we need to be able to apply the same level of pressure back but we don't.

Sydney, tackled us and tackled us and knocked us around until the ball spilled lose, when it did they were away. Other teams have beaten us this way. That next ring of players outside the stoppage seem to be pretty slow and poor with their pressure and contested work. Those players who run out of the stoppage on the spread just seem to get away too easily.

You want to beat us, you apply extreme pressure and tackle hard in close and work on getting the ball to spill out, they you out run us. We should be meeting these tactics with the same style of footy, but we aren't.

Questions remain. Is our midfield and stoppage coaching tactically up with the better sides or are we languishing in this area? What about our lack of leg speed? Is this causing problems when it comes to defending opposition ball movement and having that closing speed to apply pressure?

We can definitely see an improvement in ball movement. That is a positive.

 

[carlton_99]

We either win it and score or we lose it and get scored against.

This is how it seems but what is odd is that we were really good at defending stoppages overall in 2023. We have gone from conceding the least points from stoppage in 2023 to the second most in 2024.

And I don't think it has anything to do with us winning more clearances as our differential in 2023 and 2024 is even (+1.8 per game). So it is hard to pinpoint what has changed because personnel bar maybe Doc is largely the same.

 

[Red_man2008]

The dogs are number 1 from scoring from stoppages. And we are bottom two from defending it. The matchup was never good for us.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

This is how it seems but what is odd is that we were really good at defending stoppages overall in 2023. We have gone from conceding the least points from stoppage in 2023 to the second most in 2024.

And I don't think it has anything to do with us winning more clearances as our differential in 2023 and 2024 is even (+1.8 per game). So it is hard to pinpoint what has changed because personnel bar maybe Doc is largely the same.

We were much better defensively in 2023, but much more potent offensively in 2024. Gone from being a stoppage dominant team to a turnover dominant team too.

It's a little bit hard to get a read on, but if we can get it all to click at the right time we should be set up for a good run into finals.

 

[DangerousD]

SCORE SOURCES FOR CARLTON IN 2024
Source: https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_stats_team.html?year=2024

Stoppage
Scores from stoppage: 39.2 points per game (2nd highest in AFL)
Opposition scores from stoppage: 41.8 points per game (2nd highest in AFL)
Differential: -2.6 points per game (#13 in AFL)

Centre Bounce
Scores from centre bounce: 13.8 points per game (4th highest in AFL)
Opposition scores from centre bounce: 13.6 points per game (4th highest in AFL)
Differential: +0.2 points per game (#9 in AFL)

Turnover
Scores from turnover: 56.4 points per game (2nd highest in AFL)
Opposition scores from turnover: 41.0 points per game (2nd lowest in AFL)
Differential: +15.4 points per game (#2 in AFL)

Defensive Half
Scores from defensive half: 37.1 points per game (2nd highest in AFL)
Opposition scores from defensive half: 32.9 points per game (7th highest in AFL)
Differential: +7.8 points per game (#5 in AFL)

Forward Half
Scores from forward half: 48.2 points per game (2nd highest in AFL)
Opposition scores from forward half: 40.4 points per game (9th highest in AFL)
Differential: +7.8 points per game (#3 in AFL)

Firstly, I will start with the good news which is that our own scoring has been really good from all five of these sources in 2024. As you can see above from the numbers we are ranked 2nd highest for all of them except points from centre bounce where we are still a healthy 4th. This is a massive improvement from 2023 where we ranked 5th (stoppage), 5th (centre bounce), 14th (turnover), 7th (defensive half), and 14th (forward half). All of this is really positive and becomes more so when you consider we are only 8th in inside 50s per game indicating that we have been ruthlessly efficient when getting it in there. This thought is backed up by the numbers which show Carlton ranked #1 for goals per inside 50, #2 for scoring shots per inside 50, and #2 for accuracy in front of goal. So essentially we are doing very well when it comes to the offensive side of the game.

The defensive side is a bit more of a concern but potentially not as much as it is being made to be (I hope...). When you look through the opposition score sources and the overall differential you see we are actually doing a very good job at defending turnover where we are conceding the 2nd least number of points per game in the AFL. This is the area that all the analysts tell us you have to have in good shape to contend.

However, the big area for improvement right now is our opposition scores from stoppage, including centre bounce. In 2023, we gave up the least number of points from stoppage per game and the 5th least number of points from centre bounce per game. You can see this has regressed significantly so far in 2024 where we are now giving up the 2nd and 4th highest scores from these sources respectively. Our ability to defend stoppage must be the number one focus of the coaching staff and playing group right now. We are allowing far too many easy exits from stoppage which lead to clean inside 50 entries and put our backline in a compromised position. The focus is always going to be on the defensive line when you give up a big score but this also has a lot to do with the midfield's inability to get any sort of delay on the ball.

The big question is why and personally I cannot pinpoint it which is why I thought this thread would be a good discussion starter - similar to the one regarding our clearance work earlier in the year.

Some might think it is personnel based and look at someone like Hewett who has been out of the team in our last two losses. But this is an area we have struggled with throughout 2024 based on the numbers so one inclusion may not change much. Others might think that it is related to us having too manh one-paced insidd mids that often get attracted to the ball meaning when it is not won we have opposition numbers outnumbering us on the outside leading to clean inside 50 entries. I believe this is what the coaches have identified as the issue as we have seen Hewett removed from the team in the last fortnight and Kennedy demoted to sub against the Dogs. The "new" core midfield group has been Cripps, Walsh, and Cerra in these games with assistance from Kennedy, E.Hollands and Fogarty. This is a midfield that should be much better at spreading from the contest, however, even with this change it has not led to any improvement in this area.

I also haven't touched on the backline itself which may be part of the issue. We obviously only play with one true key defender in Weitering supported by two intercept types in Kemp and McGovern. Is the long-term solution replacing one with another key defender (like a Taylor/Buckley partnership at the Giants)? Or will that hurt our ability to move the ball from D50 which was an issue when Young was in the team instead of a Kemp.

Any thoughts on what the specific issues may be whether it is related to personnel or system in the midfield/defence? And even better what some potential solutions may be.

Great work putting all that in a thread, it’s interesting reading.

As you pointed out, our scores against from stoppage is a concern, but one that should be easily fixable, the personal is the same as last year, which to me suggests it’s a structure issue.

If we are better offensively in several areas and then worse in several others, it just looks like a balance issue.

Our defenders are copping the flack but the ease in which the ball is coming in is a big issue.

Let’s hope things tighten up starting this week

 

[BluStreak]

On first crack last night, King showed that Pitto is giving us first touch most of the time, it is what we do next that is being stuffed up. Either our mids are being tagged to closely and the ump needs to pay attention or our mids are not up to it.

 

[goreds]

On first crack last night, King showed that Pitto is giving us first touch most of the time, it is what we do next that is being stuffed up. Either our mids are being tagged to closely and the ump needs to pay attention or our mids are not up to it.

Interesting isn’t it!

Pitto brings first use but we can’t capitalize, that ruins the narrative from many on this board. With more leg speed on the edges, I think we can capitalize in a huge way. Smarter faster players on the wings, more drive off HB and a lock down defender.

Cunningham, Marchy, Martin, Mots bring the speed, class and lockdown ability we are missing.