Analysis Season 2020 - What should the season look like now?

[Section 5]

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Clubs could be forced to play as many as five games in three weeks before the COVID-19 disaster forces a total shutdown period as the AFL looks to protect its $2.5 billion broadcast agreement.

The radical plan was discussed as the AFL staged separate phone conferences with chief executives and presidents today.

Clubs were told they would be able to sign top-up players to help navigate the exhausting period.

Drastic rule changes to limit fatigue – such as unwinding the cap on interchange rotations and allowing more than four players on the bench – were also considered.

Matches could also be shortened with league powerbrokers prioritising ensuring all 198 home-and-away games plus finals get played at some stage.
The small turnaround between games would see AFL venues across the country host midweek games which will be played in front of no spectators.

The AFL has two bye rounds to play with, plus the possibility of playing into October, which has been canvassed with the MCC.

It was made clear on Saturday that every option was on the table, and nothing had been set in stone.

With fears of a severe disruption when the virus pandemic is expected to peak in April-May, the league is keen to bank as many games as possible at the start of the season.

Clubs were told they will need to be “extremely flexible” with their squads and understand it is inevitable there will be a postponement of games at some stage this year.

The option of a mini-draft where affected clubs could recruit supplementary players has been canvassed, with the WAFL aware it could possibly lose players as a result.

Essendon had to call on 10 “top-up” players just prior to the start of the 2016 season after 12 of its senior-listed footballers were suspended for a year due to doping bans.

Thursday night’s Richmond-Carlton blockbuster – which would normally draw a crowd of almost 90,000 fans – will take place before an empty MCG stadium.
That will lead to an extraordinary contrast for one-game flag hero Marlion Pickett.

Pickett played in front of a Grand Final crowd of 100,014 last September but will have no fans cheering him on in his second game.

The latest developments come as North Melbourne’s Jamie Macmillan was placed in isolation last week as a precautionary measure because his wife’s boss was showing symptoms of the infection.

But when Olivia Macmillan’s colleague’s coronavirus test came back negative, the defender was permitted to return to Arden St.


A player from a different Melbourne club also tested negative to COVID-19 last week.

Champion Data staff are likely to start working from home tomorrow while the AFL has shut down its Docklands headquarters from the public.

Richmond chief executive Brendon Gale said a range of options were being canvassed, but said no one knew what would happen when peak infections hit Australia within the next month.

“The peak infection rate is forecast to hit around April-May,” Gale said on radio.

“How long (will we be playing in front of empty stadiums) for? We don’t know. We have not had that indication from the AFL.”

Not directed at Jakess just commenting on the article

The AFL are trying to keep their business and all 18 clubs afloat.
Just like every other business in the land will be doing over the foreseeable future.
So please give them a little slack they are trying to protect the sport we follow.
Same applies for the NRL and others.
This particular article starts with the broadcast agreement and then mentions other stuff.

Does not mention end of year club distributions. They are massive. And they guarantee the salary cap in this payment.
I have mentioned this before. Clubs can not survive without this payment and other revenue that may not be forthcoming. Clubs will go to the wall.
The below figures are from the AFL annual report.
I have only listed the three biggest revenue areas and the five largest expenses from their report.
This week the AFL announced their is only $60 million set aside for ? can't remember what they called it.
This $60 million is in the report under "reserves" it was only $40 million in 2018
The AFLPA better come on board also or their $37 million won't happen.

For the people that want the AFL to close up shop for the season you may want to start following amateur sport in 2021. Unless the AFL are covered under some insurance we don't know about.
I for one hope they can salvage some sort of season and save the competition. I wish them and all other business well in the coming months.
Would not surprise me if a conference is introduced but anything and everything will be on the tables.

Revenue from 2019 AFL Annual Report	$ Millions
Broadcast & Media	397
Commercial Operations	290
Next best listed	38
Expenses
Distribution to AFL Clubs	314 (Divided by 18 = $17.4 mill each but not how it is distributed)
Finance and Admin	130
Broadcast & Media (relevant to above revenue)	19
Commercial operations (relevant to above revenue)	68

Distributation to AFLPA

37

 

[martinson]

My guess is Easter.

Once the schools close up shop, and the virus is spreading through the community, that’s it.

And as I’ve said before, it doesn’t come back until we’re at the bottom of curve on the other side.

Reassess then,though likely a bit too soon.

The AFL hasn't thought this through at all . Have they thought of the anxiety they're putting the players through. You can imagine if they start playing games and guys get the virus . Which is inevitable

Not directed at Jakess just commenting on the article

The AFL are trying to keep their business and all 18 clubs afloat.
Just like every other business in the land will be doing over the foreseeable future.
So please give them a little slack they are trying to protect the sport we follow.
Same applies for the NRL and others.
This particular article starts with the broadcast agreement and then mentions other stuff.

Does not mention end of year club distributions. They are massive. And they guarantee the salary cap in this payment.
I have mentioned this before. Clubs can not survive without this payment and other revenue that may not be forthcoming. Clubs will go to the wall.
The below figures are from the AFL annual report.
I have only listed the three biggest revenue areas and the five largest expenses from their report.
This week the AFL announced their is only $60 million set aside for ? can't remember what they called it.
This $60 million is in the report under "reserves" it was only $40 million in 2018
The AFLPA better come on board also or their $37 million won't happen.

For the people that want the AFL to close up shop for the season you may want to start following amateur sport in 2021. Unless the AFL are covered under some insurance we don't know about.
I for one hope they can salvage some sort of season and save the competition. I wish them and all other business well in the coming months.
Would not surprise me if a conference is introduced but anything and everything will be on the tables.

Revenue from 2019 AFL Annual Report	$ Millions
Broadcast & Media	397
Commercial Operations	290
Next best listed	38
Expenses
Distribution to AFL Clubs	314 (Divided by 18 = $17.4 mill each but not how it is distributed)
Finance and Admin	130
Broadcast & Media (relevant to above revenue)	19
Commercial operations (relevant to above revenue)	68

Distributation to AFLPA

37

Section 5 we have a world pandemic health crisis that is just hitting our shores.

Businesses have to adjust . If the AFL operations are such that the clubs can't survive if they're out of action for a year then maybe what comes back might be better. TV sponsors and fans will be hungry by then. No one will miss the 28 coaches in the coaching box.

It's not as if anyone wants the AFL to close up shop ,everyone wants to watch footy. But they're not the only business suffering worldwide through this. The smartest thing they could do is accept the inevitability of the situation and parcel up a better product when they're able to play . Because it just won't be possible for a while.

 

[Dylan12]

Whoever wins the premiership this year is definitely going to have an asterix next to the title. With that said, I still want it to be us!

Absolutely agree. We won won the last pre-season comp, won AFL-X, so why not win whatever this season throws up too.

 

[luthor]

From my reckoning the AFL have around 5-6 weeks to play with before even thinking about calling the season off or drastically curtailing it.

IMO suspend the season for a month and then revisit it.

What I've been arguing all along.

Trying to cram in Empty Stadium games has got disaster written all over it.

Already the NZ government has told its cricketers (and any of their other citizens abroad) to get their arses home by midnight tonight or face a 14 day mandatory quarantine.

I often find Kiwis somewhat irritating but I've got to hand it to them......when they make up their minds about something they act decisively and quickly.

Whether or not the spectator lockout in this country is an over reaction or not is now a moot point.

If all the infection rate projections for Covid 19 can be believed (and believing them is the premise being used) it's only a matter of time before a player or players or ancillary club staff return a positive test. And then it's all over, just like it was for the NBA.

Postpone it now for 4, 5 , 6 weeks or whatever and revisit after that.

Just make a decision based on reality AFL, not on some fantasy that's going to blow up in your faces.

 

[luthor]

Listening to SEN this afternoon.

Del Santo made the point that AFL players are like finely tuned thoroughbreds.

He went on to say that their low body fat and stringent skin fold requirements meant that their immune systems aren't able to cope very with colds, flus and other viral infections and that's why such afflictions almost always spread like wildfire through a playing group.

So with a highly contagious virus such as Covid 19, it would almost be a case of "one out all out"if a player contracted the disease..

Everything else aside. I believe the AFL has a Duty of Care consideration here for its players.

Encouraging them to have body contact contact each other, sweat, bleed and otherwise wipe their body fluids over each other isn't exactly consistent with the "social distancing" mantra being preached to society as a whole.

 

[Gadzorks]

Not directed at Jakess just commenting on the article

The AFL are trying to keep their business and all 18 clubs afloat.
Just like every other business in the land will be doing over the foreseeable future.
So please give them a little slack they are trying to protect the sport we follow.
Same applies for the NRL and others.
This particular article starts with the broadcast agreement and then mentions other stuff.

Does not mention end of year club distributions. They are massive. And they guarantee the salary cap in this payment.
I have mentioned this before. Clubs can not survive without this payment and other revenue that may not be forthcoming. Clubs will go to the wall.
The below figures are from the AFL annual report.
I have only listed the three biggest revenue areas and the five largest expenses from their report.
This week the AFL announced their is only $60 million set aside for ? can't remember what they called it.
This $60 million is in the report under "reserves" it was only $40 million in 2018
The AFLPA better come on board also or their $37 million won't happen.

For the people that want the AFL to close up shop for the season you may want to start following amateur sport in 2021. Unless the AFL are covered under some insurance we don't know about.
I for one hope they can salvage some sort of season and save the competition. I wish them and all other business well in the coming months.
Would not surprise me if a conference is introduced but anything and everything will be on the tables.

Revenue from 2019 AFL Annual Report	$ Millions
Broadcast & Media	397
Commercial Operations	290
Next best listed	38
Expenses
Distribution to AFL Clubs	314 (Divided by 18 = $17.4 mill each but not how it is distributed)
Finance and Admin	130
Broadcast & Media (relevant to above revenue)	19
Commercial operations (relevant to above revenue)	68

Distributation to AFLPA

37

And they clearly realise that games in empty stadiums mean waaaaay more people watching on tv, which positively affects the stations revenue. Which pays players etc.

 

[Gibbo_88]

I understand there are lots of $ at risk here for the AFL but unless the clubs have complete control of all the players so that they and their families are basically in lockdown then (as others have mentioned) it's only going to be so long until one player gets it and then a significant amount of people from that club have it or need to be quarantined for x amount of days. If it's our club that has 5 or 6 with Coronavirus and we play against a full strength team that wallops us or if we smash Richmond for the first time because half their players are missing... what's the point? who cares. It won't be a fair competition.

Making the players continue in their job is putting their family and friends at risk while most of the country sounds like they are preparing to stay home as long as possible. Can't imagine any players with new baby or a pregnant partner will want to take on the risk. My partner and I work at a big hospital in Brisbane, we haven't got a choice, it's only likely to make our job harder to do over the next few months by continuing footy competitions for $$$. I hope common sense prevails and the comp doesn't go ahead.

 

[luthor]

I understand there are lots of $ at risk here for the AFL but unless the clubs have complete control of all the players so that they and their families are basically in lockdown then (as others have mentioned) it's only going to be so long until one player gets it and then a significant amount of people from that club have it or need to be quarantined for x amount of days. If it's our club that has 5 or 6 with Coronavirus and we play against a full strength team that wallops us or if we smash Richmond for the first time because half their players are missing... what's the point? who cares. It won't be a fair competition.

Making the players continue in their job is putting their family and friends at risk while most of the country sounds like they are preparing to stay home as long as possible. Can't imagine any players with new baby or a pregnant partner will want to take on the risk. My partner and I work at a big hospital in Brisbane, we haven't got a choice, it's only likely to make our job harder to do over the next few months by continuing footy competitions for $$$. I hope common sense prevails and the comp doesn't go ahead.

Agree 100%

$ can be made again.

Revenue can be generated again.

Lives lost can't be rebuilt.

If this thing is as bad as is being projected, get fair dinkum and shut down the comp for as long as it takes.

 

[FLVanLandingham]

Watched the post match interview from Wayne Bennett, i find him irritable sometimes (not really watched much of him), but some interesting takes.
Spit-balling here, pie in the sky, pig might fly etc etc I am bored and the afl just fixed their mistake and took away the free access to replays of matches from 2012.......... eugh

Several mini week long round robins with a quarantine period beforehand etc. If medical advice is still no large gatherings, solely televised. (this is all occurring *after* the peak etc (heck in 3-4 months really or whenever. over my head). In no way do I advocate putting people at risk just for footy)

If the plug is indeed pulled, and the competition is compromised, it would be interesting to see how some band-aid footy could be hobbled together to a: keep some money flowing to the clubs (i don't know how though ), and b: keep the unruly masses entertained with some goddamn footy!

Heck, the year 2020 can be banished for all time in the footy record books, no championship etc. Anything could happen. Anything but aflx..... eugh

 

[MacMum]

Listening to SEN this afternoon.

Del Santo made the point that AFL players are like finely tuned thoroughbreds.

He went on to say that their low body fat and stringent skin fold requirements meant that their immune systems aren't able to cope very with colds, flus and other viral infections and that's why such afflictions almost always spread like wildfire through a playing group.

So with a highly contagious virus such as Covid 19, it would almost be a case of "one out all out"if a player contracted the disease..

Everything else aside. I believe the AFL has a Duty of Care consideration here for its players.

Encouraging them to have body contact contact each other, sweat, bleed and otherwise wipe their body fluids over each other isn't exactly consistent with the "social distancing" mantra being preached to society as a whole.

I heard all this yesterday....Dal Santo is excellent, always enjoy when he is on and with Huddo as well was a bonus. I can't see how the players can avoid getting this virus......and when that happens it will be shut up shop time for all.

 

[trikster]

At least Wayne Bennett is talking sense.

NRL: Wayne Bennett slams NRL's response to coronavirus crisis

www.google.com.au

Now I know the world has gone mad when Bennett is the voice of reason.

 

[CarterS]

NRL season to go on despite virus threat

The Warriors will avoid heading home to New Zealand and likely face Canberra on the Gold Coast next weekend as the NRL attempts to push through the coronavirus.

www.espn.com.au

NRL team NZ Warriors are staying in Australia and playing home games in Aus to avoid the quarantine and the competition is still forging ahead. Absolute scenes.

 

[dlanod]

And they clearly realise that games in empty stadiums mean waaaaay more people watching on tv, which positively affects the stations revenue. Which pays players etc.

TV revenue wouldn't affect player/team pay for quite some time (and probably not at all). TV rights payments are locked in until the next TV deal comes up for negotiation. OTOH ticket and stadium revenue is straight out of the clubs' pockets.

 

[Nunez]

My guess is Easter.

Once the schools close up shop, and the virus is spreading through the community, that’s it.

And as I’ve said before, it doesn’t come back until we’re at the bottom of curve on the other side.

Schools will shut up shop as a preventative measure, not because everyone at schools have it/are spreading it. Big difference.

 

[MacMum]

Reassess then,though likely a bit too soon.

The AFL hasn't thought this through at all . Have they thought of the anxiety they're putting the players through. You can imagine if they start playing games and guys get the virus . Which is inevitable


Section 5 we have a world pandemic health crisis that is just hitting our shores.

Businesses have to adjust . If the AFL operations are such that the clubs can't survive if they're out of action for a year then maybe what comes back might be better. TV sponsors and fans will be hungry by then. No one will miss the 28 coaches in the coaching box.

It's not as if anyone wants the AFL to close up shop ,everyone wants to watch footy. But they're not the only business suffering worldwide through this. The smartest thing they could do is accept the inevitability of the situation and parcel up a better product when they're able to play . Because it just won't be possible for a while.

....the first adjustment that should be made is the ridiculous wages (average $800+) for the top tier of the AFL. None of them deserve to be earning that much, perhaps Gill on the $800k but the rest shouldn't be getting any more than approx $300k.....that would be quite a saving for the AFL

It's a rort the wages top business leaders get..

 

[Section 5]

Agree 100%

$ can be made again.

Revenue can be generated again.

Lives lost can't be rebuilt.

If this thing is as bad as is being projected, get fair dinkum and shut down the comp for as long as it takes.

Don't agree that revenue can be generated again if season cancelled.
The AFL & clubs will possibly survive if they can retain some revenue and cash flow

All media, sponsors, and any other associated companies that contribute revenue to the AFL will have their own issues to deal with.
The AFL have to supply a product before they get paid for that product

So don't think Media revenue of $340,000,000 will be paid if the AFL can't supply the product.
If all games cancelled then another $290,000,000 of commercial operations revenue will be lost.
If any one thinks they will survive with a loss of $630,000,000 in revenue in one year i would like to hear how this would happen.

If the AFL revenue collapses so will the clubs.
They can't trade in an insolvent situation.
With that much loss in revenue in one year i doubt the AFL would even be able to trade under Receivership/Administration/Liquidation.
Receivvership = Bank in control
Voluntary Administration = Maybe it can be saved
Liquidation = It's dead

I won't comment on "lives Lost" that is for the Corona virus thread.

 

[jackess]

I wonder if extending the 2021 and 2022 seasons to have more games might be an option to compensate for a lack of games this year.

 

[MacMum]

Have not these big businesses (i.e AFL) heard of "saving for a rainy day"? Sounds like they are running the show on a very smelly oily rag, while paying themselves top dollar..

 

[CarterS]

Have not these big businesses (i.e AFL) heard of "saving for a rainy day"? Sounds like they are running the show on a very smelly oily rag, while paying themselves top dollar..

Agree 100% though the AFL have a $60 million future fund which i suspect will be cleaned out this year, thanks to posts like the one above it appears less than it looks as it would barely cover 1/10 of a season's revenue, i have been surprised at how many businesses are facing mass trouble after prospect of a slow month.

 

[Dalions]

I wonder if extending the 2021 and 2022 seasons to have more games might be an option to compensate for a lack of games this year.

Have 3 premierships in 2 years you reckon?

 

[jackess]

Have 3 premierships in 2 years you reckon?

That's probably a stretch but if we end up playing 16 rounds maybe playing an extra 4 next year and 2 the year after.

 

[Ironmonger]

And they clearly realise that games in empty stadiums mean waaaaay more people watching on tv, which positively affects the stations revenue. Which pays players etc.

I think this is a mixed bag at best for TV rights. The quality of the TV product will be reduced quite a bit with no crowd noise, and that might deter advertisers.

On the other hand, Foxtel/Kayo will sell a few more subscriptions.

 

[CarterS]

If the season ends up being cancelled imagine how keen we will all be for Footy by this time next year...

 

[M Malice]

If the season ends up being cancelled imagine how keen we will all be for Footy by this time next year...

Shit yer, I haven't looked forward to a season as much as this one for a long time, ah well life goes on.

 

[martinson]

Countries are starting to lockdown en masse. So there'll be plenty of time to work out what the competition should look like or whether extra games can be crammed in at some point.

In the meantime they're completely wasting their time trying to start a season now, put their energy into something productive.

As for the financial issues raised by Section 5 I guess that's a reality and has to be dealt with.

Exec salaries need to be heavily shaved, they likely won't be doing much this year and that's where a lot of the fat is both at the AFL and club level.

Reality will sink in over the next few weeks . It's a tough time for many people.