Analysis Season 2020 - What should the season look like now?

[jackess]

Countries are starting to lockdown en masse. So there'll be plenty of time to work out what the competition should look like or whether extra games can be crammed in at some point.

In the meantime they're completely wasting their time trying to start a season now, put their energy into something productive.

As for the financial issues raised by Section 5 I guess that's a reality and has to be dealt with.

Exec salaries need to be heavily shaved, they likely won't be doing much this year and that's where a lot of the fat is both at the AFL and club level.

Reality will sink in over the next few weeks . It's a tough time for many people.

What if the options are shut down for 8-10 weeks from round 1 or shut down for 4-6 weeks after round 4?

It really needs to be in line with wider industry, schools, etc. shutdowns otherwise we could shutdown for 4 weeks with minimal effect.

I assume most industries are preparing for a month or so of being shut down but will leave it to the last minute.

 

[briztoon]

Greg Hunt the National Health Minister, and the Australian Chief Medical officer were ABC morning show this morning.

Greg Hunt said something along the lines of, the government is expecting this epidemic to last the next 6 months in Australia.

So basically our normal flu season, which is April to October.

As I’ve repeatedly said, once the season is canceled, I don’t see it starting back up this year.

As Section 5 mentioned, all businesses associated with the AFL will also be recovering and finding their footing on the other side of this.

 

[briztoon]

What if the options are shut down for 8-10 weeks from round 1 or shut down for 4-6 weeks after round 4?

It really needs to be in line with wider industry, schools, etc. shutdowns otherwise we could shutdown for 4 weeks with minimal effect.

I assume most industries are preparing for a month or so of being shut down but will leave it to the last minute.

I think our shut downs are going to be longer than what we might see in the Northern hemisphere.

 

[M Malice]

What is life without footy...................? and sex?.................. gee I hope they don't tell hookers they have to cease business.

 

[lionraven]

Whatever happens people will lampoon Gil and AFL House for it. If COVID19 spread does not end up getting a strong foothold in our population due to good social distancing policies and it just peters out to a slightly stronger flu season then people will laugh at Gil for cancelling the season, losing X dollars etc. If COVID19 ends up being worse than expected and we are locked up in our own houses for weeks to a couple months then Gil looks like a moron for not cancelling earlier. He put us at risk etc. Im sure he has to have a team of lawyers look through the bajillion contracts AFL and the respective clubs have with all sorts of businesses, venues and suppliers. He will have to calculate how much they are legally owing to those parties if they cancel vs postpone vs reschedule to a compacted midweek format vs AFLX vs delaying 2021 season and playing an abridged 2020-2021 season in between vs all other options. Its a billion dollar industry and there aren't easy answers. People screaming at Gil to do X, Y, Z quickly are being reactionary. Gil isnt in charge of managing the pandemic. He is in charge of managing the AFLs business and he and his team will need time to figure things out. Getting mad at the AFL for being slow when they are trying to figure out answers to questions where millions of dollars are on the line is silly.

 

[Maroon Monsoon]

What is life without footy...................? and sex?.................. gee I hope they don't tell hookers they have to cease business.

Patrons Quarantined in Spanish Brothel Over Coronavirus

It's all fun and games until someone tests positive for a virus spreading around the world. Everyone at the La Selva Negra brothel in Valencia, Spain got qui

www.informedamerican.com

 

[jackess]

I think our shut downs are going to be longer than what we might see in the Northern hemisphere.

At some stage the game has to go on. There could still be players catching it next year. They have to find a way for the game to continue while Coronavirus is still a threat.

 

[martinson]

Shit yer, I haven't looked forward to a season as much as this one for a long time, ah well life goes on.

Funny what life serves up . Who would've thought.

At least we had last year , weekends could get really boring this year, but I won't miss those close finishes . Still wake up sweating over Mumford's throw.

 

[martinson]

At some stage the game has to go on. There could still be players catching it next year. They have to find a way for the game to continue while Coronavirus is still a threat.

Good point . Experts are saying there is in reality little likelihood of a vaccine so it could be in the community for a few years before immunity builds up.

So the AFL should be devoting a lot of time in to how they're going to manage that going forward.

 

[martinson]

Whatever happens people will lampoon Gil and AFL House for it. If COVID19 spread does not end up getting a strong foothold in our population due to good social distancing policies and it just peters out to a slightly stronger flu season then people will laugh at Gil for cancelling the season, losing X dollars etc. If COVID19 ends up being worse than expected and we are locked up in our own houses for weeks to a couple months then Gil looks like a moron for not cancelling earlier. He put us at risk etc. Im sure he has to have a team of lawyers look through the bajillion contracts AFL and the respective clubs have with all sorts of businesses, venues and suppliers. He will have to calculate how much they are legally owing to those parties if they cancel vs postpone vs reschedule to a compacted midweek format vs AFLX vs delaying 2021 season and playing an abridged 2020-2021 season in between vs all other options. Its a billion dollar industry and there aren't easy answers. People screaming at Gil to do X, Y, Z quickly are being reactionary. Gil isnt in charge of managing the pandemic. He is in charge of managing the AFLs business and he and his team will need time to figure things out. Getting mad at the AFL for being slow when they are trying to figure out answers to questions where millions of dollars are on the line is silly.

Agreed. But trying to start this season now flies in the face of all the medical, social and impending epidemiological issues that are as plain as day to see.

 

[martinson]

Whatever happens people will lampoon Gil and AFL House for it. If COVID19 spread does not end up getting a strong foothold in our population due to good social distancing policies and it just peters out to a slightly stronger flu season then people will laugh at Gil for cancelling the season, losing X dollars etc. If COVID19 ends up being worse than expected and we are locked up in our own houses for weeks to a couple months then Gil looks like a moron for not cancelling earlier. He put us at risk etc. Im sure he has to have a team of lawyers look through the bajillion contracts AFL and the respective clubs have with all sorts of businesses, venues and suppliers. He will have to calculate how much they are legally owing to those parties if they cancel vs postpone vs reschedule to a compacted midweek format vs AFLX vs delaying 2021 season and playing an abridged 2020-2021 season in between vs all other options. Its a billion dollar industry and there aren't easy answers. People screaming at Gil to do X, Y, Z quickly are being reactionary. Gil isnt in charge of managing the pandemic. He is in charge of managing the AFLs business and he and his team will need time to figure things out. Getting mad at the AFL for being slow when they are trying to figure out answers to questions where millions of dollars are on the line is silly.

Aus hasn't limited travel until too late. Cases are about to explode. If you think this can't be as bad as parts of Europe think again.

Well that's what the experts are saying and they haven't missed a beat so far.

 

[davemc_lions]

Aus hasn't limited travel until too late. Cases are about to explode. If you think this can't be as bad as parts of Europe think again.

Well that's what the experts are saying and they haven't missed a beat so far.

Yes and left open loop holes for Chinese students as they wanted the money. Left open people from Italy for F1.
$$$ talk.. I just think when Disneyland and NBA close and the worth more then anything in OZ.. You do wonder how bad it will be.

China seems to be starting to come through it although they locked down harder than we ever will or can.
Our gov does not seem to be able to manage crisis they just hope they go away.

 

[Gadzorks]

Good point . Experts are saying there is in reality little likelihood of a vaccine so it could be in the community for a few years before immunity builds up.

So the AFL should be devoting a lot of time in to how they're going to manage that going forward.

There was a Canadian company that this week said they were three weeks away from starting human trials pending FDA approval. Reckoned they could be pumping out 10million doses a month from November. Not a lot in the scheme of a worldwide situation.

Hope they were telling the truth.

 

[Gadzorks]

Agreed. But trying to start this season now flies in the face of all the medical, social and impending epidemiological issues that are as plain as day to see.

If schools and universities close this week they’ll surely have to cancel.

 

[martinson]

There was a Canadian company that this week said they were three weeks away from starting human trials pending FDA approval. Reckoned they could be pumping out 10million doses a month from November. Not a lot in the scheme of a worldwide situation.

Hope they were telling the truth.

I've had experience investing in bio companies developing drugs for all kings of ailments and if they say next year multiply it by 5 . There is an extraordinary process that has to be gone through just to ensure a drug is safe let alone become viable and available for public use. In this case you'd imagine they'd have the best brains on it and lessen roadblocks but it's still going to take years in my view.

 

[Section 5]

Maybe the answer is simple for the AFL & NRL to salvage some revenue.

Just start the season late say September play through summer all night games. It is good enough for the women.
Play 17 H & A games + finals. Give cricket some competition.
I have not put much thought into this but it may keep the game viable.
May have to do a summer season for a few years.

Don't forget their is no cure for this virus.
Some reports have a vaccine 12 months away and that is if they skip the usual trial steps.
Someone on BF posted an article stating it is about 10 years for the usual safe trial period.
Just imagine releasing a vaccine not fully tested on billions of people.

Also what people have not mentioned is the virus will start up again next year in the northern hemisphere.
Just as the flu season goes through a cycle each and every year
Then the world goes through this process all over again

 

[martinson]

I've had experience investing in bio companies developing drugs for all kings of ailments and if they say next year multiply it by 5 . There is an extraordinary process that has to be gone through just to ensure a drug is safe let alone become viable and available for public use. In this case you'd imagine they'd have the best brains on it and lessen roadblocks but it's still going to take years in my view.

But once a lot of people get it the community can build up immunity. You build your immunity by getting it. As long as you're not one of the serious cases.

 

[Dalions]

But once a lot of people get it the community can build up immunity. You build your immunity by getting it. As long as you're not one of the serious cases.

Which is exactly why we need to just let it run its course.

 

[HereIam86]

Maybe the answer is simple for the AFL & NRL to salvage some revenue.

Just start the season late say September play through summer all night games. It is good enough for the women.
Play 17 H & A games + finals. Give cricket some competition.
I have not put much thought into this but it may keep the game viable.
May have to do a summer season for a few years.

Don't forget their is no cure for this virus.
Some reports have a vaccine 12 months away and that is if they skip the usual trial steps.
Someone on BF posted an article stating it is about 10 years for the usual safe trial period.
Just imagine releasing a vaccine not fully tested on billions of people.

Also what people have not mentioned is the virus will start up again next year in the northern hemisphere.
Just as the flu season goes through a cycle each and every year
Then the world goes through this process all over again

Where would they played games in the Summer all of the AFL grounds are use for Cricket.

 

[jackess]

Which is exactly why we need to just let it run its course.

Without exceeding our capacity to treat the serious cases.

 

[Gadzorks]

On rip through it Mitch says he does not think next weeks games will go ahead.

 

[Dalions]

Without exceeding our capacity to treat the serious cases.

Of course, but when/if this World stand fails to contain.
The Economic future of the World will have to come first and will.
The World will have to get back to Business.

 

[jackess]

Of course, but when/if this World stand fails to contain.
The Economic future of the World will have to come first and will.
The World will have to get back to Business.

Yeah I'm with you.

The AFL like all industries (under direction from the government) need to play their part in 'flattening the curve' while we work towards building the capability to treat the health impact from the virus and then get back to getting the economy back to be as strong as possible while supporting those who fall ill.

 

[CarterS]

I think $$ will dictate that even if we are out of action until say August or September, we will have some form of competition even if it's some sort of shortened, non-premiership competition.

 

[martinson]

Which is exactly why we need to just let it run its course.

That's true to a reasonable extent but if you don't try to limit new cases and manage the situation by extensive distancing/quarantine measures you run the significant risk of your medical services being overwhelmed which effects everybody ,not just those with coronavirus. Italy is Exhibit A.

In AUS and the US the opportunity has been missed to really clamp down on it when you could through sheer pig headedness and now we just have to see what develops.Like any illness/disease if you get it early it limits or potentially stops the damage . And that's not what's happened here.