Analysis Season 2020 - What should the season look like now?

[briztoon]

Of course, but when/if this World stand fails to contain.
The Economic future of the World will have to come first and will.
The World will have to get back to Business.

The UK, the USA, the Australian CMO’s have all said they need to flatten the curve of the virus.

If they let it run it’s natural course, there would be millions of deaths. That’s their words.

 

[PattyKwasagun]

Australia - like most countries - can't really afford a prolonged shutdown. I'm not sure we can afford a 2 week shutdown really, let alone numerous months.

It's a bit of a scary thought really, and way beyond footy. But if we're in as economically dire a situation as we seem to be in now already, and we're talking about a government-mandated shutdown in June/July, I don't know what world we're going to come back out of this into. You would have to think we'll see major permanent closures of airlines, cafes/restaurants/bars, shops, cinemas, essentially all small businesses - it's hard to really imagine the damage that will be done with an extended retreat from public life. There's even been speculation the entire NRL as an organisation will fold if that happens. The scale of economic disaster is hard to fully comprehend.

It's why ultimately I still can't see public life being drastically affected much beyond early May. Because at some stage the cost to the economy is going to be greater having everything shut than having a lot of people sick. Obviously that isn't the primary concern when there is a threat to life involved, but it is an enormous concern nonetheless.

 

[Section 5]

Aus hasn't limited travel until too late. Cases are about to explode. If you think this can't be as bad as parts of Europe think again.

Well that's what the experts are saying and they haven't missed a beat so far.

I don't think lionraven has said anything about travel at all.
Just suggesting what a hard place it is for CEO Gil to be in.
Dammed if he goes one way and dammed if he goes another.
Gil has a big organisation to run and a lot of people's destiny this year is in his decision making.

lionraven has given excellent and comforting advise on a few post in COVID 19 thread page 6 post was a good one

Also isn't this the "what should the season look like now " thread
I am at fault here also as half of my post at 10.49 am moved to the virus.
Should have summed my virus reference to 1 line maybe.

 

[jackess]

We go into a hard lockdown, economy crashes, less money to spend on hospitals

 

[martinson]

Yes there are lots of conflicting issues re the economy whatever else, but if we have a breakout of the virus you'll find the public won't care about much else and won't want to go out anyway.

There's still an underlying disbelief particularly in the community here that what we're facing isn't going to be that bad. Other countries who thought that will be paying the price.

Limit the spread,shut it down as far as possible and over time you'll help the businesses and everything else everyone's worried about that affects their lifestyles.

 

[martinson]

I don't think lionraven has said anything about travel at all.
Just suggesting what a hard place it is for CEO Gil to be in.
Dammed if he goes one way and dammed if he goes another.
Gil has a big organisation to run and a lot of people's destiny this year is in his decision making.

lionraven has given excellent and comforting advise on a few post in COVID 19 thread page 6 post was a good one

Also isn't this the "what should the season look like now " thread
I am at fault here also as half of my post at 10.49 am moved to the virus.
Should have summed my virus reference to 1 line maybe.

I don't believe I did say he did. Just making it clear that it's self evident what they should be doing now

 

[martinson]

It started out with nearly everyone saying it's only the flu ,there's hardly any numbers ,it's just a beat up.

Now the rhetoric as shifted to we can't shut down our lifestyles because the economy will crash , some footy can be played,whatever else.

Looking way too far ahead.

Maybe see where we are in a few weeks and how the community feels about it then. Some decisions could just be imposed .

 

[Dalions]

Australia - like most countries - can't really afford a prolonged shutdown. I'm not sure we can afford a 2 week shutdown really, let alone numerous months.

It's a bit of a scary thought really, and way beyond footy. But if we're in as economically dire a situation as we seem to be in now already, and we're talking about a government-mandated shutdown in June/July, I don't know what world we're going to come back out of this into. You would have to think we'll see major permanent closures of airlines, cafes/restaurants/bars, shops, cinemas, essentially all small businesses - it's hard to really imagine the damage that will be done with an extended retreat from public life. There's even been speculation the entire NRL as an organisation will fold if that happens. The scale of economic disaster is hard to fully comprehend.

It's why ultimately I still can't see public life being drastically affected much beyond early May. Because at some stage the cost to the economy is going to be greater having everything shut than having a lot of people sick. Obviously that isn't the primary concern when there is a threat to life involved, but it is an enormous concern nonetheless.

Speaking of the NRL my understanding is that they are currently pleading with the Government to allow them to still play in front of crowds albeit with a smaller capacity and possibly with sections of crowds set to 500 people max.
They are concerned they will go under with no crowds allowed at all. Or games not being played at all.

 

[luthor]

Speaking of the NRL my understanding is that they are currently pleading with the Government to allow them to still play in front of crowds albeit with a smaller capacity and possibly with sections of crowds set to 500 people max.
They are concerned they will go under with no crowds allowed at all. Or games not being played at all.

Peter V'landys (NRL chairman ) on the radio in the last half hour saying that if the season is called off, THEY WILL BE BANKRUPT.

Said that if the NZ Warriors had gone home instead of staying in Australia for Round 2, that would be where the NRL would be.

Was making noises about the NRL asking (begging for) a slice of the $17B Government Stimulus package or it will be curtains.

 

[martinson]

Speaking of the NRL my understanding is that they are currently pleading with the Government to allow them to still play in front of crowds albeit with a smaller capacity and possibly with sections of crowds set to 500 people max.
They are concerned they will go under with no crowds allowed at all. Or games not being played at all.

This is just so silly isn't it. The NRL and other organisations just don't get it.

No one wants to accept what every Epidemiologist is saying if you don't want to end up in a Wuhan or Italy situation.

The progress of the numbers make it inevitable unless you take drastic measures.The US is going to get a massive shock before too long. Likely here as well. Sections of 500 people is playing with dynamite.

We've never faced anything like this before so I guess we just don't want to believe it. There are several blogs with world's experts contributing where you can find out what the outcomes will be if you want to not take hard decisions.

 

[Section 5]

Aus hasn't limited travel until too late. Cases are about to explode. If you think this can't be as bad as parts of Europe think again.

Well that's what the experts are saying and they haven't missed a beat so far.

I don't believe I did say he did. Just making it clear that it's self evident what they should be doing now

I believe you did

 

[martinson]

I believe you did

Righto then.

One up to you.

 

[Dalions]

This is just so silly isn't it. The NRL and other organisations just don't get it.

No one wants to accept what every Epidemiologist is saying if you don't want to end up in a Wuhan or Italy situation.

The progress of the numbers make it inevitable unless you take drastic measures.The US is going to get a massive shock before too long. Likely here as well. Sections of 500 people is playing with dynamite.

We've never faced anything like this before so I guess we just don't want to believe it. There are several blogs with world's experts contributing where you can find out what the outcomes will be if you want to not take hard decisions.

The virus is not the only thing at stake here.
Believe it or Not!

 

[martinson]

The virus is not the only thing at stake here.
Believe it or Not!

Of course. But if it takes hold it will be. For the immediate future.

 

[martinson]

Morrison has just announced all international travelers will have to self isolate for 14 days.

Don'y know how they're going to monitor it but this is just the beginning. The know what's coming.

 

[BangyBangy]

we go up in two weeks, how quiet is it up there?

I was up here over Christmas too & it was busy as all hell then with people choosing to holiday here rather than coastal towns in NSW & Vic that were in the midst of the bushfires. Compared to that the place is very quiet, but still lots of people around. Pac Fair is noticeably quiet, but other than that things are pretty normal.

Might be a different story in two weeks.

 

[BangyBangy]

Just stopped in at a local sushi place for lunch. Some old dude in there a few metres away from us. Tucking into our plates we noticed his dry cough, as if that wasn't enough a couple of minutes later overhear him talking on the phone about how his jetlag is better. What the **** dude. Nobody else in the restaurant seemed to mind but we instantly shoveled two plates of sushi into our gobs, up'd paid & got the hell out in seconds.

 

[carnthemlions]

Australia - like most countries - can't really afford a prolonged shutdown. I'm not sure we can afford a 2 week shutdown really, let alone numerous months.

It's a bit of a scary thought really, and way beyond footy. But if we're in as economically dire a situation as we seem to be in now already, and we're talking about a government-mandated shutdown in June/July, I don't know what world we're going to come back out of this into. You would have to think we'll see major permanent closures of airlines, cafes/restaurants/bars, shops, cinemas, essentially all small businesses - it's hard to really imagine the damage that will be done with an extended retreat from public life. There's even been speculation the entire NRL as an organisation will fold if that happens. The scale of economic disaster is hard to fully comprehend.

It's why ultimately I still can't see public life being drastically affected much beyond early May. Because at some stage the cost to the economy is going to be greater having everything shut than having a lot of people sick. Obviously that isn't the primary concern when there is a threat to life involved, but it is an enormous concern nonetheless.

I've seen speculation that we could be looking at the largest real economic crisis in history and that might not be so far fetched. We can't return to business as usual after this- not that there was much time left before things would've changed drastically in one way or another anyway. If we do, the crises of the last few months will just be the beginning.

 

[martinson]

I've seen speculation that we could be looking at the largest real economic crisis in history and that might not be so far fetched. We can't return to business as usual after this- not that there was much time left before things would've changed drastically in one way or another anyway. If we do, the crises of the last few months will just be the beginning.

I don't think it'll degenerate to that level but unless we take drastic measures it will.

People need to face up to that. The footy is just a minor issue in the scheme of things.

I think there is a massive problem coming in the US that could shake the world . Trump is gradually being dragged kicking and screaming into doing something.

 

[jackess]

I don't think it'll degenerate to that level but unless we take drastic measures it will.

People need to face up to that. The footy is just a minor issue in the scheme of things.

I think there is a massive problem coming in the US that could shake the world . Trump is gradually being dragged kicking and screaming into doing something.

Playing footy with minimal people attending and taking measures to minimise the potential spread would also be a very minor contributor to the issue.

 

[martinson]

Playing footy with minimal people attending and taking measures to minimise the potential spread would also be a very minor contributor to the issue.

I don't agree with that at this time. There really isn't enough data to know whether that is really unsafe or not.

However yeah , after a while we can only hope that that could occur.

 

[BangyBangy]

Peter V'landys (NRL chairman ) on the radio in the last half hour saying that if the season is called off, THEY WILL BE BANKRUPT.

Said that if the NZ Warriors had gone home instead of staying in Australia for Round 2, that would be where the NRL would be.

Was making noises about the NRL asking (begging for) a slice of the $17B Government Stimulus package or it will be curtains.

Well then they should go under then if they are that poorly managed. It would be a disgrace if they were to receive a bailout package. If anyone should be able to go without a wage for six months it's overpaid players & football execs. Club support staff, well, that's a different story, but no different to the hundreds of thousands of Australians who will have their income adversely affected by what's unfolding.

 

[martinson]

Well then they should go under then if they are that poorly managed. It would be a disgrace if they were to receive a bailout package. If anyone should be able to go without a wage for six months it's overpaid players & football execs. Club support staff, well, that's a different story, but no different to the hundreds of thousands of Australians who will have their income adversely affected by what's unfolding.

100%

V'Landys has always been a tosser. I think he used the words 'not of our doing'.

Well welcome to the real world . Lots of good Aussie companies have had their revenues decimated.

 

[Dalions]

Well then they should go under then if they are that poorly managed. It would be a disgrace if they were to receive a bailout package. If anyone should be able to go without a wage for six months it's overpaid players & football execs. Club support staff, well, that's a different story, but no different to the hundreds of thousands of Australians who will have their income adversely affected by what's unfolding.

That is an extrelmely narrow minded view!

 

[Section 5]

Maybe it would be cheaper for the government to pay any one over 50 years their salary to stay home for the winter.
CEO and very high income earners ?? some other incentive
I would imagine less cases so less deaths
They already pay pensions etc over 67's
Not going to happen but wonder what the costs would be.

Age of Coronavirus Deaths
COVID-19 Fatality Rate by AGE:
*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). This probability differs depending on the age group. The percentages shown below do not have to add up to 100%, as they do NOT represent share of deaths by age group. Rather, it represents, for a person in a given age group, the risk of dying if infected with COVID-19.

AGE​	DEATH RATE confirmed cases	DEATH RATE all cases
80+ years old​	21.9%​	14.8%​
70-79 years old​	​	8.0%​
60-69 years old​	​	3.6%​
50-59 years old​	​	1.3%​
40-49 years old​	​	0.4%​
30-39 years old​	​	0.2%​
20-29 years old​	​	0.2%​
10-19 years old​	​	0.2%​
0-9 years old	​	no fatalities​