Analysis Season 2020 - What should the season look like now?

[briztoon]

I'm not what you would call a Gil McLachlan fanboy but I'm impressed with how he and the AFL in general have handled this so far, they are seeking the view of experts and acting on their advice and not being overrun by media "experts" opinions, just because other major sports have abandoned their seasons for now does not mean we have to follow.

Some sort of normalcy must continue, we can't all go and hide in a corner in the fetal position for 6 months, footy will be a great release for a large portion of the populace. From listening to Greg Swann re the measures taken by the Lions, (I assume all clubs would be following similar protocols) the players are at less risk of contracting the virus and hence passing it on as the vast majority of the general public is.

I don’t disagree with your comments per say.

But unless the players stay home and don’t go out in to the community at all, I don’t see how they’re at less risk of community transmission.

Besides public transport, grocery stores are one of the more high risk places where public transmission will occur.

Right now public transmission is low. But as the ABC specialist commentator said this morning, we haven’t made a dent in slowing the exponential growth, or flattening the curve yet. We’re still on the same trajectory as Europe and the US.

 

[dlanod]

Unless Gil McLachlan is outright lying they have sought the advice of multiple experts and they have advised that starting the season is fine.

Just maybe the other competitions have reacted to outside uninformed pressure from non experts and the AFL has taken a measured mature informed approach.

Sadly any claims about experts these days is basically meaningless, and I mean that in the broadest possible sense. It is beyond easy and embarrassingly common to find an expert willing to give you the advice you want to receive.

Unless the experts are actually named so their credentials and previous claims are reviewable, it could well be any man and his dog that Gil rang up that calls themselves an expert - I doubt it is, but the term "expert" is pretty meaningless.

 

[briztoon]

A lot of those sports also waited until the situation was worse than it currently is in Australia to suspend it's season or was forced to by the government. A lot also depended on international travel

Most of those sports waited until they had cases in the playing or coaching ranks.

As soon as that occurred, they shut down indefinitely.

Unless Gil McLachlan is outright lying they have sought the advice of multiple experts and they have advised that starting the season is fine.

Just maybe the other competitions have reacted to outside uninformed pressure from non experts and the AFL has taken a measured mature informed approach.

I believe, like the government, their seeking confirmation bias from specialists who will give it to them.

There are front line doctors in ICU’s who disagree strongly with the government’s approach.

There are specialists in pandemics and viruses who are saying shut it all down. But as has been discussed here, the government is balancing medical advice against economic realities.

The UK just shut their schools, a week after saying the wouldn’t. The reason, they believe 30% of community transmission is from school kids to adults.

As the ABC’s specialist said, we’re one week behind the UK in where they were at, and we are at.

 

[M Malice]

Sadly any claims about experts these days is basically meaningless, and I mean that in the broadest possible sense. It is beyond easy and embarrassingly common to find an expert willing to give you the advice you want to receive.

Unless the experts are actually named so their credentials and previous claims are reviewable, it could well be any man and his dog that Gil rang up that calls themselves an expert - I doubt it is, but the term "expert" is pretty meaningless.

Most of those sports waited until they had cases in the playing or coaching ranks.

As soon as that occurred, they shut down indefinitely.



I believe, like the government, their seeking confirmation bias from specialists who will give it to them.

There are front line doctors in ICU’s who disagree strongly with the government’s approach.

There are specialists in pandemics and viruses who are saying shut it all down. But as has been discussed here, the government is balancing medical advice against economic realities.

The UK just shut their schools, a week after saying the wouldn’t. The reason, they believe 30% of community transmission is from school kids to adults.

As the ABC’s specialist said, we’re one week behind the UK in where they were at, and we are at.

The only expert I recall being singled out by Gil was the Chief Medical Officer, I cant recall if it was the CMO of Victoria or Australia. You would think the CMO would be a reliable expert.

 

[Dalions]

The AFL aren’t stupid, they know it is only a matter of time before the season is suspended for an unknown period of time. It may be after the first round? Who knows?
I have no problem with them getting the season underway until such times.
I have full faith that the AFL have followed all protocols necessary on the advice given otherwise they would have a pretty large Lawsuit on their hands if they haven’t.
The codes Lawyers would have been part of all of the conversations going on in the last few days.

 

[briztoon]

To add to my previous post.

We saw with a couple of the early cases in Victorian schools, is that a couple of the kids who tested positive, that they had a parent who worked in a hospital, who had been exposed.

The government doesn’t want to close the schools because it will pull hospital staff out of the hospitals to look after their kids.

However the most high risk group in society to catching the virus will be hospital workers. And they’re going to go home each day to their families, and their kids are going to go to daycare and school the next day.

And hospital workers aren’t just doctors and nurses. There are admin and management staff, physios, pathology staff, catering, cleaning and transport ward staff.

Many of these staff won’t have contact with coronavirus patients. But they all work in the same buildings, walk in the same hallways.

There isn’t enough PPE for all staff to wear when on shift. You would be surprised how quickly you go through PPE following hospital policy.

Every time you walk in to an isolation room, and that could be patients with pneumonia or a dysentery like illness, you have to gown, glove and mask up. Catering staff might need to enter such a room a dozen times a day. Nursing staff many more times.

It’s not unrealistic for one patient to require different staff to use PPE 30 to 40 times a day.

These are regular patients in every hospital. Winter time we always see a spike in such patients.

When the CMO says Australia has 20 million face masks in storage for hospitals, it might sound like a lot, but it’s not. Not when you have factor in every hospital and “regular“ patients who require staff to wear protective equipment. That might be a months supply nation wide.

Australia is not the only country trying to buy more of everything at the moment for our hospitals.

Sorry for the long, tangent post.

 

[Dylan12]

Just maybe the other competitions have reacted to outside uninformed pressure from non experts and the AFL has taken a measured mature informed approach.

I'd be beyond staggered if every other sports competition, arts, music events etc. etc have all overacted and conceded to outside uninformed pressure.

The AFL and NRL must be getting some pretty amazing advice that EVERY OTHER sports, arts, music related companies aren't for them to have shut up shop.

 

[briztoon]

Oh, I mentioned the other day our mother in law was going to post out face masks to us.

The post office stopped her from doing so. She tried getting government approval to do so, but was denied.

They don’t have a shortage, but they’re not allowed to send such items overseas now.

 

[PattyKwasagun]

I'd be beyond staggered if every other sports competition, arts, music events etc. etc have all overacted and conceded to outside uninformed pressure.

The AFL and NRL must be getting some pretty amazing advice that EVERY OTHER sports, arts, music related companies aren't for them to have shut up shop.

I was also very much of the view they should suspend the season for the short term - certainly until early/mid May at least - but ultimately after the PM's presser yesterday I don't really think they had any option other than to play.

When the CMO and the PM consistently say we aren't shutting society down and industry needs to continue wherever it can, it would be pretty brave to go against that and shut down the comp. Clearly the government is trying to protect any part of the economy they can in any possible way they can for the short term with that statement.

The messaging from our government is getting pretty bizarre in terms of how vastly different it is to what most other countries are doing. I'm not sure why they're still holding out, but I can't imagine it will be much longer until they change their approach to fall in line with what's happening overseas.

 

[briztoon]

I was also very much of the view they should suspend the season for the short term - certainly until early/mid May at least - but ultimately after the PM's presser yesterday I don't really think they had any option other than to play.

When the CMO and the PM consistently say we aren't shutting society down and industry needs to continue wherever it can, it would be pretty brave to go against that and shut down the comp. Clearly the government is trying to protect any part of the economy they can in any possible way they can for the short term with that statement.

The messaging from our government is getting pretty bizarre in terms of how vastly different it is to what most other countries are doing. I'm not sure why they're still holding out, but I can't imagine it will be much longer until they change their approach to fall in line with what's happening overseas.

Because we’ve hearing what the Northern hemisphere is saying. And they’re relying on the Northern summer making a difference, as it does with the cold and flu.


We’re heading in to winter.

 

[Dylan12]

The messaging from our government is getting pretty bizarre in terms of how vastly different it is to what most other countries are doing. I'm not sure why they're still holding out, but I can't imagine it will be much longer until they change their approach to fall in line with what's happening overseas.

I personally think they are stubborn and doing more harm than good, particularly in the long term, which is only a matter of time before they are exposed. They are delaying the inevitable and I have it on good authority that the CMO is being used as a puppet trotted out by the Federal Government to support its narrative. The numbers continue to grow by the day and they want to pretend that life is as normal.

The Government have a duty of care to its people and IMO they have been derelict in their duty in recent weeks and one could argue months given their hatchet job throughout the bush fire disaster.

So yeah, playing footy for as long as they can until it is inevitably suspended / cancelled is ridiculous given they could play the comprised season in an uninterrupted manner from June or so onwards.

 

[Dalions]

Oh, I mentioned the other day our mother in law was going to post out face masks to us.

The post office stopped her from doing so. She tried getting government approval to do so, but was denied.

They don’t have a shortage, but they’re not allowed to send such items overseas now.

Because they want them all to themselves!

 

[carnthemlions]

The only expert I recall being singled out by Gil was the Chief Medical Officer, I cant recall if it was the CMO of Victoria or Australia. You would think the CMO would be a reliable expert.

In this case I'm not sure the CMO counts as an expert. He's just a medical professional tasked with communicating with the public and with government, something he's doing a pretty ****ing terrible job of. As far as I know his actual area of expertise is nephrology (kidneys). He communicates regularly with experts, but they're not a unified mass.

 

[Dylan12]

In this case I'm not sure the CMO counts as an expert. He's just a medical professional tasked with communicating with the public and with government, something he's doing a pretty ******* terrible job of. As far as I know his actual area of expertise is nephrology (kidneys). He communicates regularly with experts, but they're not a unified mass.

Very well said.

Further, as I said in my earlier post, he is a puppet, so those that are elevating him to this deity like figure, should really think again because he is only spruiking the narrative the puppet master (Federal Government) are directing him to spruik.

 

[briztoon]

Very well said.

Further, as I said in my earlier post, he is a puppet, so those that are elevating him to this deity like figure, should really think again because he is only spruiking the narrative the puppet master (Federal Government) are directing him to spruik.

Like any debate, discussion, etc. different people will find themselves on different sides of the discussion.

Most people will have a preconceived notion about what ever the topic is, and place more weight on expert opinions/views that align with their view.

I watch a lot of ABC, so am heavily influenced by what their “experts” say. They have had many virologist specialists, epidemic/pandemic specialists on. It’s easy to look up these people on google and find other articles they’ve written or videos of other interviews.

Most of these experts disagree with the governments approach. But they don’t usually discuss the economic impact of what their advice is.

My personal opinion is we’re in for a bad time either way.

Not only are we going to see mass temporary lay offs, we combine that with a high percentage of sick people not working.

The deputy CMO said if you’re sick, stay home, don’t go to work. Any sickness, not just coronavirus.

Most people don’t have enough sick leave entitlements to do that.

I think the government is panicking about the welfare system potentially being overloaded. Especially if people start losing their jobs because they’re sick and can’t work.

 

[Dylan12]

I watch a lot of ABC, so am heavily influenced by what their “experts” say. They have had many virologist specialists, epidemic/pandemic specialists on. It’s easy to look up these people on google and find other articles they’ve written or videos of other interviews.

Most of these experts disagree with the governments approach. But they don’t usually discuss the economic impact of what their advice is.

Not sure if you saw the 7:30 report on ABC last night, but that doctor they had on was exceptionally in the manner in which he presented his argument, which went completely against what the puppet masters are doing...which is practically nothing and just go about your business.

 

[carnthemlions]

My worry with continuing to play is testing. Stocks of testing kits are running low, we don't want more players getting tests when members of the general public wouldn't. The UK can't even test frontline medical staff, and in parts of the US they're unable to work because they can't get tested. People here who are genuinely ill with potential coronavirus symptoms often don't meet guidelines either. We don't want to end up in a situation where players or staff who don't meet guidelines are getting tested because the AFL is worried about losing money.

 

[briztoon]

Coaches taking a 20% pay cut.
https://www.afl.com.au/news/386479

 

[Dalions]

Coaches taking a 20% pay cut.
https://www.afl.com.au/news/386479

The big boys leading the way!

 

[M Malice]

I'd be beyond staggered if every other sports competition, arts, music events etc. etc have all overacted and conceded to outside uninformed pressure.

The AFL and NRL must be getting some pretty amazing advice that EVERY OTHER sports, arts, music related companies aren't for them to have shut up shop.

Arts and music events require spectators/viewers to go ahead, no point AC/DC playing at an empty Suncorp Stadium or a Science Fair being on with no one allowed in, a football competition is a different kettle of fish, I'm sure players/coaches with partners/children/mums/dads/communities etc wouldn't be putting their families at any more risk by playing than by not playing. IMO under club supervision, education and protocols it may even be less risk by playing, the players want to play they will be going to extremes to make sure they continue to be able to, if they are just told to go home and come back in however many weeks or months I wouldn't be so sure

I know this is a serious business but grinding the economy to a halt and putting untold thousands out of work and bankrupting a multitude of businesses.... is it worth the long term societal degradation? I guess we will all know the answer by the end of the year.

 

[M Malice]

In this case I'm not sure the CMO counts as an expert. He's just a medical professional tasked with communicating with the public and with government, something he's doing a pretty ******* terrible job of. As far as I know his actual area of expertise is nephrology (kidneys). He communicates regularly with experts, but they're not a unified mass.

I should have pointed the bolded out in my original post and I'm sure he takes notice of them and doesn't override their views.

 

[Dylan12]

IMO under club supervision, education and protocols it may even be less risk by playing, the players want to play they will be going to extremes to make sure they continue to be able to, if they are just told to go home and come back in however many weeks or months I wouldn't be so sure

I know this is a serious business but grinding the economy to a halt and putting untold thousands out of work and bankrupting a multitude of businesses.... is it worth the long term societal degradation? I guess we will all know the answer by the end of the year.

So are you saying then that every other sport in the world is wrong by suspending / cancelling their competitions and that the AFL and NRL are right in doing so? I mean every other sport in the world operates in the same world as the AFL / NRL so I'm genuinely confused as to how those sports are different from every other sport both domestically and internationally that they are continuing on.

 

[M Malice]

So are you saying then that every other sport in the world is wrong by suspending / cancelling their competitions and that the AFL and NRL are right in doing so? I mean every other sport in the world operates in the same world as the AFL / NRL so I'm genuinely confused as to how those sports are different from every other sport both domestically and internationally that they are continuing on.

Yes, although I would substitute "could be" for "is".

One good sign could be that the USA have suspended their competitions and they have Trump, so they could be wrong. Most people also seem to be bagging the way the UK has handled this situation as well and they have suspended theirs.

 

[MacMum]

I was also very much of the view they should suspend the season for the short term - certainly until early/mid May at least - but ultimately after the PM's presser yesterday I don't really think they had any option other than to play.

When the CMO and the PM consistently say we aren't shutting society down and industry needs to continue wherever it can, it would be pretty brave to go against that and shut down the comp. Clearly the government is trying to protect any part of the economy they can in any possible way they can for the short term with that statement.

The messaging from our government is getting pretty bizarre in terms of how vastly different it is to what most other countries are doing. I'm not sure why they're still holding out, but I can't imagine it will be much longer until they change their approach to fall in line with what's happening overseas.

I like the way we are handling things atm......the only thing I wished they had done earlier was shut our borders. We are an island, albeit a big one, which is different to overseas for a start and far enough away from the dramas they are experiencing.

I like that we are thinking independently of other countries, consulting with all our top medicos,who are equal to anywhere in the world imo, we are working out for ourselves what is best for us and our economy.....they are trying to keep as many people employed as possible, while also putting in place sensible rules for us plebs to keep safe, but still able to have some kind of life, even if vastly different...

It will be trial and error as so much is unknown about this virus....but it is going to be up to us the people to do the right and proper thing and follow the rules to the letter.

I'm glad the footy is going ahead, I also liked the way Gil handled reaching the final decision.

Gerard Whately (SEN) read out parts of articles in the relevent papers of the times during the spanish flu 1915 and WW2 1941 re playing footy and the reasons for still playing then were the same as now.......normality in very trying times.

Bring on the footy so we can forget all this drama just for a few hours at least!

Go you beautiful Lions

 

[M Malice]

I like the way we are handling things atm......the only thing I wished they had done earlier was shut our borders. We are an island, albeit a big one, which is different to overseas for a start and far enough away from the dramas they are experiencing.

I like that we are thinking independently of other countries, consulting with all our top medicos,who are are equal to anywhere in the world imo, we are working out for ourselves what is best for us and our economy.....they are trying to keep as many people employed as possible, while also putting in place sensible rules for us plebs to keep safe, but still able to have some kind of life, even if vastly different...

It will be trial and error as so much is unknown about this virus....but it is going to be up to us the people to do the right and proper thing and follow the rules to the letter.

I'm glad the footy is going ahead, I also liked the way Gil handled reaching the final decision.

Gerard Whately (SEN) read out parts of articles in the relevent papers of the times during the spanish flu 1915 and WW2 1941 re playing footy and the reasons for still playing then were the same as now.......normality in very trying times.

Bring on the footy so we can forget all this drama just for a few hours at least!

Go you beautiful Lions

Bravo MM, brilliant concise post.