Since '94, a side from outside the 8 has made the top 4 every year. Who

[Eastern Rangers]

I think two teams will do it in 2009. Richmond and Carlton.

 

[sainter12riewoldt]

2007 saints finished 9th then in 2008 they finshied 4th

and none of the bottom 8 will get into 4 this year

 

[NatheM]

I don't think any of last years bottom 8 will finish top 4, but they will make the eight.

Carlton are definates and the only team pushing top 4 for me.
Richmond should make the eight, they will be hungry this year.
Brisbane will be one of the teams on the borderline, they will be interesting.

apart from that Freo have to learn how to play out of their own state, they have a good list imo.

 

[Crow-mo]

It is also a fact that over the last two seasosn they won oly half their games.
Even looking at 2005 in isolation they won only a tad over half their games. Close calls such as the Swans final tend to mislead people into thinking they were a genuine contender. If you dig deeper, and anaylse the season, you will find they were an average team, proved by their reuslts in 2005.

And as I said, flag favouritism means nothing it's all about the results, and the results in 2005 and 2006 show an average team. A team that won about half their games in both years. If idiots want to put their money on Geelong "driving " their price down to flag favourites then that shows how stupid some people are.



Well duh! Of course finals are the be all and end all, because they determine who wins the premiership. But is the team that wins the premiership always the best team? Is the "system" which we use to decide the premiership a system which always, always gives us the actual best team of the year? Of course not.

You are confusing the issue of finals determining the premiership and being the most important games of the year with the issue of whether that very system is THE sysem which gives is the best team of the year? Any system that uses one-off knockout games of football to decide the premiership will NOT always give us the best team of the year. It can't because any upset (and yes upsets do happen in finals) will mean the best team has lost. Injuries and luck, are more likely to have an effect over a shorter time period because of the variables.

Yes, the team that wins will always get to be called premiers, and that is all that matters, but that's not what Im talking about. Any system that concludes with one-off knockout games and gives 8th a chance of being premeirs after playign 4 good weeks of football will not give us the best team of the year every year. Some years it will - not every year.

if you want a true test to who the best team is, use the EPL system. It may be less exciting but there is no dispute that the best team over 6 months will win the premiership.

That is not the case in our system. We use our system because it is more exciting and gives us a dramatic finale to the season. We do not use the system for "fairness."

So when myself and others such as "The Real Comptroller" say that Geelong was not that good in 2005 we are basing it on the whole season. We are not basing it on one narrow finals loss, because we are not naive enough to think that one finals performance is reflectove of how good you are over a season. Yes that finals performance determines whether they (may) win the flag or not, but there comes the issue again - is the system itself conducive to always rewarding the best teams? The answer is, of course, no.

That's why I scoff at people who say "Geelong wasn't that far away in 2005" and using that as a reason to justify their resurgence in 2007. Yes, they nearly made the PF so "officially" they weren't far away, but dig a little deeper and look at their seaosn as a whole and their 2005 wasn't as good as it seemed.

I tend to think their virtual 50-50 2005 season (13 wins, 11 losses) was a precusor to their even worse 2006 season(and we should have seen it coming), but because of their close finals loss to the Swans, many people (such as you) forgot that the Cats were in fact only an average side. If you didn't pay much crednece to that 2005 Swans final as "reason for having a good 2006" maybe you would have seen their crap 2006 comin too. Oh well.... live and learn, my friend.

I think this is a nice bump from Nov 2006 where Dan argues that Geelong were absolutely no chance in 2007

 

[Thewlis Dish]

Port for me.

 

[Smyth94]

Port for me.

+1

Clearly underperformed in 2008 - prime candidate.

The teams that usually make this jump are underperforming teams. Neither Richmond or Carlton underperformed.

 

[PAFC_1870]

+1

Clearly underperformed in 2008 - prime candidate.

The teams that usually make this jump are underperforming teams. Neither Richmond or Carlton underperformed.

I agree, it was clear Port wasn't a genuine bottom 4 side, had they beaten Geelong in round 1 last year instead of narrowly lost their season would probably be reversed. They also were leading the Hawks by over 7 goals and made a mess of a few sides through the course of the year.

On Richmond and Carlton... if either Fev or Richo get injured long term, both are bottom 4. Everyone is forgetting their depth is ordinary, and there are many shit kickers still in either squad, irrelevant of the hype of a select few.

As a smokey, Brisbane, provided they get all their players on the park consistently.

 

[stugots]

I think this is a nice bump from Nov 2006 where Dan argues that Geelong were absolutely no chance in 2007

whereas i recall you having them penciled in as certainties...

 

[The Donners]

Port for me.

+1

+2

Carlton no chance to make the finals for the reason of Houlihan, Cloke, Fisher, Thornton, Bentick, Simpson, Wiggins, Scotland, Russell and Hampson.

Richmond should with Delidio, Cousins, Johnson, Foley, Cotchin, Tuck, Tambling and even Brown to run through the middle. Potentially the best midfield in the land.

Essendon are a chance on the back of a fit Lucas, McVeigh, Gumbleton, Myers, Houli, Dempsey, Reimers, Neagle and Davey... and the inclusion of Welsh and Prismall mid-season.

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

Fremantle was the best team outside the eight in 2008 - or at least, should have been. If they can learn to win the close games (they went 0-9 in close games last year) they can make the top four like they did a few years back. The Harvey factor is whats holding them back. Give them a decent coach and the sky's the limit.

Richmond and Carlton are probably a year away but could surprise if they have good luck with key players avoiding injury.

Cant see any other 5 teams - West Coast, Port, Melbourne, Brisbane, (who was the other one??) making the finals

 

[Geoffa32]

Port (biased as I have been following the pre-season closely than any other before)

other than port, richmond-brisbane would probably be the strongest

Will be Port if Tredrea Chad Brogan and Lade stay on the park for most of season. Draw is good too.

Other team would be Carlton. Surely all those number one picks (and Judd) will bear some fruit soon.

 

[Crow-mo]

whereas i recall you having them penciled in as certainties...

you remember do you? I argued strongly - in this thread - that they should be considered a very strong chance.

but thanks, always nice to see an attempt at being clever fall flat on its arse.

 

[Crow-mo]

+2

Carlton no chance to make the finals for the reason of Houlihan, Cloke, Fisher, Thornton, Bentick, Simpson, Wiggins, Scotland, Russell and Hampson.

rubbish, of course they're a strong chance

Richmond should with Delidio, Cousins, Johnson, Foley, Cotchin, Tuck, Tambling and even Brown to run through the middle. Potentially the best midfield in the land.

if they keep improving they could make it this year too.

Essendon are a chance on the back of a fit Lucas, McVeigh, Gumbleton, Myers, Houli, Dempsey, Reimers, Neagle and Davey... and the inclusion of Welsh and Prismall mid-season.

not exactly in the same class as the others is it? but with luck...

 

[Crow-mo]

Fremantle was the best team outside the eight in 2008 - or at least, should have been. If they can learn to win the close games (they went 0-9 in close games last year) they can make the top four like they did a few years back. The Harvey factor is whats holding them back. Give them a decent coach and the sky's the limit.

don't think that's a bad shout at all. they have plenty of talent.

 

[Crow-mo]

if i'm going to guess, maybe Carlton?

 

[mark73]

So I guess it's going to be another year where every team will make the eight. And to think I thought/hoped that THIS year might deliver the odd surprise. Is there really another city up that beanstalk?

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

don't think that's a bad shout at all. they have plenty of talent.

That said I wouldnt touch them with your money. Guaranteed to disappoint, are Freo.

 

[The Donners]

Carlton no chance to make the finals for the reason of Houlihan, Cloke, Fisher, Thornton, Bentick, Simpson, Wiggins, Scotland, Russell and Hampson.

rubbish, of course they're a strong chance

Based on? Finished 11th in '08 with a full compliment of players to choose from. Judd won B & F and AA (captain) honours and Fev kicked 99 goals.

Where will the goals come from other than Fev? Who are their defenders? Who is their ruckman?

Call me cynical but the hype surrounding Carlton is laughable. They have the most overrated midfield in the competition, 1 forward and no backmen.

How are they going to cover the very ordinary players I listed above?

1 key injury and they're bottom 4.

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

Based on? Finished 11th in '08 with a full compliment of players to choose from. Judd won B & F and AA (captain) honours and Fev kicked 99 goals.

Where will the goals come from other than Fev? Who are their defenders? Who is their ruckman? .

None of those problems seemed to bother the Sydney Swans who had an undersized fullback, an erratic key forward, a pedestrian midfield and a reject ruckman or two. And won their first premiership in 70+ years.

If their key players stay on the park they could do some good things this year. They certainly cant afford many injuries though, but the same could be said of 3 or 4 sides, especially StKilda and Essendon.

 

[The Donners]

None of those problems seemed to bother the Sydney Swans who had an undersized fullback, an erratic key forward, a pedestrian midfield and a reject ruckman or two. And won their first premiership in 70+ years.

If their key players stay on the park they could do some good things this year. They certainly cant afford many injuries though, but the same could be said of 3 or 4 sides, especially StKilda and Essendon.

I hardly think Sydney is an appropriate example. They had the personnel to implement the game style Roos constructed to counteract their obvious deficiencies in skill and speed and was at the time unique (St. Kilda have since implemented a similar game plan). Carlton's game plan is not unique, simplistically it is the same as 14 other teams.

Their key players stayed on the park in '08. You haven't answered my questions.

How are they going to improve in their areas of deficiency? IMHO they have neglected to address these problem areas thus there will be little to no improvement in '09.

 

[Dominator_7]

I hardly think Sydney is an appropriate example. They had the personnel to implement the game style Roos constructed to counteract their obvious deficiencies in skill and speed and was at the time unique (St. Kilda have since implemented a similar game plan). Carlton's game plan is not unique, simplistically it is the same as 14 other teams.

Their key players stayed on the park in '08. You haven't answered my questions.

How are they going to improve in their areas of deficiency? IMHO they have neglected to address these problem areas thus there will be little to no improvement in '09.

- Stronger ruck division (the addition of Jacobs and Warnock)
- Further depth in an already strong midfield (the addition of Mitch Robinson and a fit Richard Hadley)
- A fit Chris Judd!
- Further development and maturity of the youngsters across the board
- Further developed backline (Bower missed half a year with shoulder prob, Thornton missed games with injury and Jamison was also restricted in the second half of the year with shoulder probs)
- A full season out of Walker / Houlihan / Richard Hadley
- Yarran / Cloke / Kruezer up forward, the latter two were needed more in the ruck last year, but will be freed up more this year. Cloke and Kruez arnt star forwards by any means, but they've shown that they know where the big sticks are when they're placed there.
- The addition of Robert Harvey as assistnat coach can only improve our midfield).
- A coach with a years experoence under his belt...

Hey, I'm not saying top 4 this year for the Blues, as I dont think we'll do that, but all things considered, we SHOULD make the finals...

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

Hey, I'm not saying top 4 this year for the Blues, as I dont think we'll do that, but all things considered, we SHOULD make the finals...

could, not should.

But agree with a lot of what you wrote

 

[PAFC_1870]

None of those problems seemed to bother the Sydney Swans who had an undersized fullback, an erratic key forward, a pedestrian midfield and a reject ruckman or two. And won their first premiership in 70+ years.

If their key players stay on the park they could do some good things this year. They certainly cant afford many injuries though, but the same could be said of 3 or 4 sides, especially StKilda and Essendon.

Please don't compare Sydney to Carlton, ever.

Go and wash your hands and mouth out.

 

[PAFC_1870]

- Stronger ruck division (the addition of Jacobs and Warnock)
- Further depth in an already strong midfield (the addition of Mitch Robinson and a fit Richard Hadley)
- A fit Chris Judd!
- Further development and maturity of the youngsters across the board
- Further developed backline (Bower missed half a year with shoulder prob, Thornton missed games with injury and Jamison was also restricted in the second half of the year with shoulder probs)
- A full season out of Walker / Houlihan / Richard Hadley
- Yarran / Cloke / Kruezer up forward, the latter two were needed more in the ruck last year, but will be freed up more this year. Cloke and Kruez arnt star forwards by any means, but they've shown that they know where the big sticks are when they're placed there.
- The addition of Robert Harvey as assistnat coach can only improve our midfield).
- A coach with a years experoence under his belt...

Hey, I'm not saying top 4 this year for the Blues, as I dont think we'll do that, but all things considered, we SHOULD make the finals...

Ok where do I start....

Useless rucks, i don't care if youg ot 10 of them, they are useless.
Hadley as a positive? oh dear
Walker and Houlihan? now that is just funny
Inexperienced defense is the biggest hole in the side, and will not be fixed by a preseason or two...
A fit Judd? an unfit Judd won your B&F, says alot about the backup.... he ain't gonna be a night and day difference to what he was last year anyway....

And Fev can't play much better then he did last year, and you finished out of the 8, where's the serious improvement? and don't mention Yarran, that is embarassing.

 

[The Donners]

- Stronger ruck division (the addition of Jacobs and Warnock) Warnock is unproven and injured. Jacobs will not play 1 game in '09.
- Further depth in an already strong midfield (the addition of Mitch Robinson and a fit Richard Hadley) Midfield is not your area of deficiency. Hadley is a dud. Robinson has played 1 NAB Cup game.
- A fit Chris Judd! He won the club's B&F, won the captaincy of the AA, what are you expecting 1 man to do? Again, the midfield is not your area of deficiency.
- Further development and maturity of the youngsters across the board. As with every other club in the competition.
- Further developed backline (Bower missed half a year with shoulder prob, Thornton missed games with injury and Jamison was also restricted in the second half of the year with shoulder probs). Thornton is a dud. Bower is a dud. Jamison is a long way off but has potential to be nothing more than reliable.
- A full season out of Walker / Houlihan / Richard Hadley. Duds. Walker provides excitement/enthusiasm but decision making and disposal is below par. Houlihan is softer than Brent Stanton and Hadley was a frontrunner at Brisbane.
- Yarran / Cloke / Kruezer up forward, the latter two were needed more in the ruck last year, but will be freed up more this year. Cloke and Kruez arnt star forwards by any means, but they've shown that they know where the big sticks are when they're placed there. Laycock kicked more goals than Cloke and the same number as Kruezer... and from 4 less games. Besides the fact it's Yarran's first year, he is not a marking option up forward.
- The addition of Robert Harvey as assistnat coach can only improve our midfield). The addition of Alan Richardson can only improve our youngsters and unlike Harvey has a proven track record of assisting a team.
- A coach with a years experoence under his belt... Matthew Knights.

Hey, I'm not saying top 4 this year for the Blues, as I dont think we'll do that, but all things considered, we SHOULD make the finals...

Sorry mate, only giving my honest opinion as does the majority on BF with Essendon. There is a stronger chance of Essendon finishing in the 8 than there is of Carlton. The difference is coach and captain aren't screaming from the bleachers to every Tom, Dick and Harry ala Ratten and Judd at any or every chance they get.

We have covered all our areas of deficiency with recruiting, we are missing 1 elite midfielder. Carlton are missing far more than Essendon. No one wants to hear that though because we don't have 3 number 1 draft picks - who gives a rats tossbag.