Since '94, a side from outside the 8 has made the top 4 every year. Who

[PAFC_1870]

That was the point i was getting at.

One thing Carlton do have is a midfield that can kick goals, Judd, Stevens, Murphy and Gibbs all had high teens and above last year and on there day are capable of bags.

Using the west coast analogy again, you can rely on your midfield kicking goals if you dont have the forwards that are capable. Similar to the way the doggies play.

But that was pinned on a great ruckmen tapping it to them, and a typical mean Eagles defence.

I don't think the GF appearance in 07 was a true reflection of your side was at, even port players said they where surprised. (maybe the result was, sorry couldnt help myself).

Pinning your hopes on a midfielder that looks past his best (admittedly at freo) to completely restructure port into a top 4 team is a bit rich but i can see where your coming from, But from your description you are 1-2 injuries away from a bottom 8 finish again probably much like Carlton are.

You don't understand Carr then, the guy had it in for Freo his whole career, infact most Port players rate Freo as their most hated, our club even got in melee's with them before we played our first game!

Carr went to play with his brother, his brother retired, he came running back. He lacked any real motivation at all. And he doesn't need to be the Carr of 2004 where he won games, he needs to be the Carr of the 2004 GF, shitting off the oppositions best, kinda like Hardwick did.

Injuries will kill every side.

Take Franklin, Ablett, Fevola, Hodge etc etc out of their sides, and they will be signifficantly worse off.

 

[King_Tredrea]

I don't think the GF appearance in 07 was a true reflection of your side was at, even port players said they where surprised. (maybe the result was, sorry couldnt help myself).

Pinning your hopes on a midfielder that looks past his best (admittedly at freo) to completely restructure port into a top 4 team is a bit rich but i can see where your coming from, But from your description you are 1-2 injuries away from a bottom 8 finish again probably much like Carlton are.

we have a Top 4 list, thats what we are pinning our hopes on. Not acquiring Josh Carr.

 

[bomberclifford]

Pinning your hopes on a midfielder that looks past his best (admittedly at west coast) to completely restructure Carlton into a top 4 team is a bit rich but i can see where your coming from, But from your description you are 1-2 injuries away from a bottom 8 finish again probably much like Port are.

Sound familiar?

 

[PAFC_1870]

Sound familiar?

Fair point

we have a Top 4 list, thats what we are pinning our hopes on. Not acquiring Josh Carr.

Come on, he unlike many Carlton fans is quite the educated one

 

[Geoffa32]

Carlton dont have a ruckman.

 

[stugots]

you remember do you? I argued strongly - in this thread - that they should be considered a very strong chance.

but thanks, always nice to see an attempt at being clever fall flat on its arse.

show me where you had them penciled in as certainties, your full of it

 

[Lance Uppercut]

Don't see this happening this year despite the statistical evidence.

Port, Carlton, Richmond and Brisbane are all realistic (to very good) top 8 chances, but I don't see any of them as making the top 4.

um, I think the whole point about the stat is that every year people can't see how it could possibly happen; and yet....

 

[ThePine]

Sound familiar?

I like what you have done there. So we are the same then.

To finally address the topic of the thread though, I think this year will be very even and it will take until the final round until the top 4 is decided much like 08 with St Kilda.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if Port make it.

 

[Cerpin Taxt]

+2
Essendon are a chance on the back of a fit Lucas, McVeigh, Gumbleton, Myers, Houli, Dempsey, Reimers, Neagle and Davey... and the inclusion of Welsh and Prismall mid-season.

lol wut?

 

[magtrev]

um, I think the whole point about the stat is that every year people can't see how it could possibly happen; and yet....

Um, no.

The point of the stat is that every year it has happened, not that people were surprised by it happening.

People being surprised by it is a function of that particular years situation and has nothing to do with the stat.

It didn't happen in 1993, and I don't believe it will happen in 2009.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Um, no.
It didn't happen in 1993, and I don't believe it will happen in 2009.

That's because there was a final 6 in 1993. But a side from outside the 1992 top 6 did make the 1993 top 4, your team!

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

In fact it did happen in 1993.

Adelaide 9th in 1992 to 5th at Rd 22 1993 to 3rd at seasons end. Although I think Dan 26 was talking about at the end of rd 22.

Edit:

North Melbourne 12th in 1992, to 3rd at Rd 22 1993 to 5th at seasons end.

So given a top 6 was the finals system between 1991 and 1993 and the double chance only went to sides 1 and 2, then effectively it did happen.

Carlton 7th in 1992, to 2nd at Rd 22 1993 to 2nd at seasons end.

Essendon 8th in 1992, to 1st at Rd 22 1993 to 1st at seasons end.

 

[Lance Uppercut]

Um, no.

The point of the stat is that every year it has happened, not that people were surprised by it happening.

So you think every year for the last 15 years people have expected a bottom four team to replace a top 4 team? Hahahaha right...

People being surprised by it is a function of that particular years situation and has nothing to do with the stat.

What a load of crap. If you went by BigFooty Groupthink, the ladder would never change year by year.

Every year people don't think it will happen. That's why it's such an unusual stat. No-one ever thinks a lowly bottom four side will make the prestigious top 4.

Every year someone pooh-pooh's this stat; this year it's you doing it. No big deal, just don't think you're any different to all the others

 

[The Donners]

lol wut?

Care to elaborate... in English?

Please Note: Before commenting, ask yourself if you actually KNOW what you're talking about.

 

[ROates]

You would have to say that Port are the favourites, given our yo-yo form year to year. Given the trend we are due to shoot back up in 09.

To be perfectly honest I would be surprised if it were to be any other team. Carlton, Richmond or one or two others might make the 8, but the 4? Its a bit iffy.

 

[The Donners]

You would have to say that Port are the favourites, given our yo-yo form year to year. Given the trend we are due to shoot back up in 09.

To be perfectly honest I would be surprised if it were to be any other team. Carlton, Richmond or one or two others might make the 8, but the 4? Its a bit iffy.

I believe Richmond could make the top 4, I also believe Port Adelaide could... not saying both will but I believe either one of them will.

 

[magtrev]

So you think every year for the last 15 years people have expected a bottom four team to replace a top 4 team? Hahahaha right...



What a load of crap. If you went by BigFooty Groupthink, the ladder would never change year by year.

Every year people don't think it will happen. That's why it's such an unusual stat. No-one ever thinks a lowly bottom four side will make the prestigious top 4.

Every year someone pooh-pooh's this stat; this year it's you doing it. No big deal, just don't think you're any different to all the others

It's bottom 8 team, not bottom 4 team.

It's an unusual stat because it's happened so many years in a row.That doesn't mean it's garaunteed to keep happening.

Every year people a lot of different people think a lot of different things. Some will think a bottom team 8 team will finish top 4, a few won't. The last few years i've seen it coming and haven't been surprised, but other people have been proven wrong by saying it won't happen. This year if it happens i will be surprised. If i'm proven wrong, so be it.

edit: to clarify, last year the Bulldogs did surprise me, but the Saints did not.

 

[Zvim]

i know a few kangas fans who would like to see a club other than their own added to the teams to have lost a qualifying final by 100 points list.

Well, as long as we don't hold the grand final record the other records are pretty meaningless.

I just want to play the Hawks in the finals.

 

[kicksome]

me thinks it will be port. They'll bounce back, they have the talent, they just had a bit of a geelong 06' type of year last year.

 

[Lance Uppercut]

It's bottom 8 team, not bottom 4 team.

It's an unusual stat because it's happened so many years in a row.That doesn't mean it's garaunteed to keep happening.

Every year people a lot of different people think a lot of different things. Some will think a bottom team 8 team will finish top 4, a few won't. The last few years i've seen it coming and haven't been surprised, but other people have been proven wrong by saying it won't happen. This year if it happens i will be surprised. If i'm proven wrong, so be it.

edit: to clarify, last year the Bulldogs did surprise me, but the Saints did not.

fair enough

 

[tarky]

port to join the top 4...north to slip out of the 8 and finish 13th - 16th

 

[ADL!]

Pport? Pplease! Make mine grandfather's.

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

fair enough

Shame,you were doing so well,too.

Not

 

[Crow-mo]

Based on? Finished 11th in '08 with a full compliment of players to choose from. Judd won B & F and AA (captain) honours and Fev kicked 99 goals.

Where will the goals come from other than Fev? Who are their defenders? Who is their ruckman?

Call me cynical but the hype surrounding Carlton is laughable. They have the most overrated midfield in the competition, 1 forward and no backmen.

How are they going to cover the very ordinary players I listed above?

1 key injury and they're bottom 4.

well seeing as they're better than you in nearly every area, what does it say about your chances? oh wait, you can't see that can you.

 

[Crow-mo]

That said I wouldnt touch them with your money. Guaranteed to disappoint, are Freo.

oh on that level, I totally agree. but if you're looking for a team with the talent to make the jump, you can't discount them from your thinking. they have top 4 talent.

i wouldn't back them either, but it wouldn't be a shock if they did bounce back.