Prediction St.Kilda Best 22

[SteeleSaints]

Brain fades by a defender is a major problem, too easily accepted by some of our supporters.
Dougal needs to play to his limitations & he’ll be a much more useful player to us.

We had a great team defence last season, because of the work rate of our midfielders, wingman etc getting back to fill holes in front of the opposition forwards. The down side to that is we have to tread water once we win back possession, because the entire team has had to press so far up the ground. How much better would the rest of the team and our forward line function if they didnt have to push so far up the ground to support the defence?

The defence were put under more pressure by our inability to win our share of centre clearances and the opposition having far too many easy inside 50's. Howard gets caught out in one on one contests, when his team mates cant support him, but the ball coming in so easily is obviously not his fault.

Howard is servicable without being very good or great. You can understand supporters believing he is ok, because we havent had a replacement - Cordy is a break in case of emergency only. The days of having key defenders who do nothing but spoil doesnt cut it for sides wanting to win flags. We simply need one of our kids to step up and become that All Australian key defender ala Sam Fisher. If Caminiti can become that strong intercepting player then I 100% support the move.

If you look at all the more recent GF winners they all have had excellent full backs and intercept defenders. Even Geelong's De Koning is better than Howard, because he is a very good interecept mark. If we want to take the next step we need to have all our key defenders being much better at one on one contests and intercept marking. Wilkie is a star and plays well above is height, Battle holds his own and wins 50-60% of his contests. Howard is the weak link IMO and we need to find a replacement.

 

[The Cobra]

We had a great team defence last season, because of the work rate of our midfielders, wingman etc getting back to fill holes in front of the opposition forwards. The down side to that is we have to tread water once we win back possession, because the entire team has had to press so far up the ground. How much better would the rest of the team and our forward line function if they didnt have to push so far up the ground to support the defence?

Howard is servicable without being very good or great. You can understand supporters believing he is ok, because we havent had a replacement - Cordy is a break in case of emergency only. We simply need one of our kids to step up and become that All Australian key defender ala Sam Fisher. The days of having key defenders who do nothing but spoil doesnt cut it for sides wanting to win flags. If Caminiti can become that strong intercepting player then I 100% support the move.

If you look at all the more recent GF winners they all have had excellent full backs and intercept defenders. Even Geelong's De Koning is better than Howard, because he is a very good interecept mark. If we want to take the next step we need to have all our key defenders being much better at one on one contests and intercept marking. Wilkie is a star and plays well above is height, Battle holds his own and wins 50-60% of his contests. Howard is the weak link IMO and we need to find a replacement.

Howard is certainly serviceable on his good days but no Andrews, May or Moore (but no team has 22 A graders). But it’s the howlers on the bad days that kill him (& the supporters!).

His type of howlers I suspect are a coach killer because they are much more difficult to remedy than a pure skill error. As I previously noted RTB has fixed his kick outs (he isn’t allowed to do it anymore).

He is probably the best we have at the moment & I suspect RTB & Boris are just telling him to keep it simple, do the team things and beat your man - which all means he can’t provide much rebound. Cordy has his moments but really not an upgrade (but an excellent 40 metre kick).

Hence whats to lose in trying Hammer back pre season if Membrey is good to go and no doubt hoping VanEs starts to develop?

 

[Tyrian Lonestar]

Howard is certainly serviceable on his good days but no Andrews, May or Moore (but no team has 22 A graders). But it’s the howlers on the bad days that kill him (& the supporters!).

His type of howlers I suspect are a coach killer because they are much more difficult to remedy than a pure skill error. As I previously noted RTB has fixed his kick outs (he isn’t allowed to do it anymore).

He is probably the best we have at the moment & I suspect RTB & Boris are just telling him to keep it simple, do the team things and beat your man - which all means he can’t provide much rebound. Cordy has his moments but really not an upgrade (but an excellent 40 metre kick).

Hence whats to lose in trying Hammer back pre season if Membrey is good to go and no doubt hoping VanEs starts to develop?

Hopefully one/both of Hammer / VanEs come on well as a key defender in 2024.

 

[saintmike65]

It's doesn't matter what you say people have him as one of our problems.
When he is at his best he is one of the best tall defenders around , people will only look at players failures and never bring up anything good that they bring to the table.
If fit he is in our best 22 and like always being in the last year of his contract expect a big year from him.

Hope you’re right..

 

[saintmike65]

We had a great team defence last season, because of the work rate of our midfielders, wingman etc getting back to fill holes in front of the opposition forwards. The down side to that is we have to tread water once we win back possession, because the entire team has had to press so far up the ground. How much better would the rest of the team and our forward line function if they didnt have to push so far up the ground to support the defence?

The defence were put under more pressure by our inability to win our share of centre clearances and the opposition having far too many easy inside 50's. Howard gets caught out in one on one contests, when his team mates cant support him, but the ball coming so easily is not his fault obviously.

Howard is servicable without being very good or great. You can understand supporters believing he is ok, because we havent had a replacement - Cordy is a break in case of emergency only. The days of having key defenders who do nothing but spoil doesnt cut it for sides wanting to win flags. We simply need one of our kids to step up and become that All Australian key defender ala Sam Fisher. If Caminiti can become that strong intercepting player then I 100% support the move.

If you look at all the more recent GF winners they all have had excellent full backs and intercept defenders. Even Geelong's De Koning is better than Howard, because he is a very good interecept mark. If we want to take the next step we need to have all our key defenders being much better at one on one contests and intercept marking. Wilkie is a star and plays well above is height, Battle holds his own and wins 50-60% of his contests. Howard is the weak link IMO and we need to find a replacement.

Excellent summation…the top line defenders are all good one on one plus have the innate ability to know when to leave their man to create offensive moves.
Perhaps we had unrealistic expectations of Dougal when we traded him in, regardless we either need much more from him or get someone with more strings to their bow.

 

[seasonedsainter]

I think the main problem is people confuse the actual Dougal Howard with some mythical Dougal Howard who they want to be an AA level player. That player doesn't and will never exist.

I happily acknowledge that Dougal has his shortcomings, but then again I understand that 99% of all players have shortcomings so I don't write off players because they aren't perfect. And Dougal is very good one on one but he's not that great as an intercept marker.

The problem is that if the club thought Dougal was such a dud that we needed a "gun" FB, no one in their right mind would suggest get rid of Dougal to pay Ben Mckay $800K+ a year for 6 years would have been a smart move.

Ben McKay and Dougal Howard AFL Stats Comparison

Ben McKay and Dougal Howard AFL Stats Comparison.

www.footywire.com

And as for not being selected for one game in his career - the coach has said it was a mistake not selecting him for the GWS final and moreso after Membrey withdrew.

See - everyone has failings and that includes the coach and the selection panel.

I think you're reading too much into it. He's no where near the best 1-on-1 defenders in the game as claimed. You say "people" have invented a mythical AA level Dougal, who are these people? I never expect him to be AA, far from it, and my posting history bears that out pretty strongly. He was trade-bait for a reason and that is he oscillates very close to liability most weeks. 2024 will be interesting allright! Happy to loop back as it unfolds.

 

[seasonedsainter]

Caminiti, Van Es, Keeler, Schoenmaker would all be gunning for Howard's spot and I expect the changing of the guard to be mostly done by end of next season. Downside there would be loss of trade-value for Doogal.

 

[ScrappyDo]

We had a great team defence last season, because of the work rate of our midfielders, wingman etc getting back to fill holes in front of the opposition forwards. The down side to that is we have to tread water once we win back possession, because the entire team has had to press so far up the ground. How much better would the rest of the team and our forward line function if they didnt have to push so far up the ground to support the defence?

The defence were put under more pressure by our inability to win our share of centre clearances and the opposition having far too many easy inside 50's. Howard gets caught out in one on one contests, when his team mates cant support him, but the ball coming so easily is not his fault obviously.

Howard is servicable without being very good or great. You can understand supporters believing he is ok, because we havent had a replacement - Cordy is a break in case of emergency only. The days of having key defenders who do nothing but spoil doesnt cut it for sides wanting to win flags. We simply need one of our kids to step up and become that All Australian key defender ala Sam Fisher. If Caminiti can become that strong intercepting player then I 100% support the move.

If you look at all the more recent GF winners they all have had excellent full backs and intercept defenders. Even Geelong's De Koning is better than Howard, because he is a very good interecept mark. If we want to take the next step we need to have all our key defenders being much better at one on one contests and intercept marking. Wilkie is a star and plays well above is height, Battle holds his own and wins 50-60% of his contests. Howard is the weak link IMO and we need to find a replacement.

Howard is certainly serviceable on his good days but no Andrews, May or Moore (but no team has 22 A graders). But it’s the howlers on the bad days that kill him (& the supporters!).

His type of howlers I suspect are a coach killer because they are much more difficult to remedy than a pure skill error. As I previously noted RTB has fixed his kick outs (he isn’t allowed to do it anymore).

He is probably the best we have at the moment & I suspect RTB & Boris are just telling him to keep it simple, do the team things and beat your man - which all means he can’t provide much rebound. Cordy has his moments but really not an upgrade (but an excellent 40 metre kick).

Hence whats to lose in trying Hammer back pre season if Membrey is good to go and no doubt hoping VanEs starts to develop?

I see the issue being that Hammer is much more likely to be a CHB type defender which leaves only Van Ess as the FB replacement, though Cordy could possibly muddle through for a season.
Either way, it would weaken our defense in the short term.

Question is do they offload one of Doogs or Batts and cop the development hit for a year or two, or keep both and wait for Hammer/VE to genuinely demand a spot?

Both Batts and Doogs would reap a mid to late 2ndRDP which is less than their value to the team but Doogs' value is on the decline where Batts has a couple more years of growth.

Personally, l think the answer is to just stick phat with Doogs this season to keep his value up, then trade him out and be done with it.
That gives Hammer/VE another 18 months development and maybe they can take a DFA if they feel they need some short term coverage.

In the end l think Wilkie has comfortably demonstrated he can play anything from a small lockdown role to CHB and that'll give flexibility to introduce the young'ns.

Others will poo-poo me as always but I'd have no problem seeing this at some point in 2025:
Batts, Van Ess, Wilkie
Sincs, Hammer, Nas

7th defender from:
Webster, Stocker, Hastie and Gus
Not sure where Arie fits in but it's a nice luxury to have.

 

[The Cobra]

I see the issue being that Hammer is much more likely to be a CHB type defender which leaves only Van Ess as the FB replacement, though Cordy could possibly muddle through for a season.
Either way, it would weaken our defense in the short term.

Question is do they offload one of Doogs or Batts and cop the development hit for a year or two, or keep both and wait for Hammer/VE to genuinely demand a spot?

Both Batts and Doogs would reap a mid to late 2ndRDP which is less than their value to the team but Doogs' value is on the decline where Batts has a couple more years of growth.

Personally, l think the answer is to just stick phat with Doogs this season to keep his value up, then trade him out and be done with it.
That gives Hammer/VE another 18 months development and maybe they can take a DFA if they feel they need some short term coverage.

In the end l think Wilkie has comfortably demonstrated he can play anything from a small lockdown role to CHB and that'll give flexibility to introduce the young'ns.

Others will poo-poo me as always but I'd have no problem seeing this at some point in 2025:
Batts, Van Ess, Wilkie
Sincs, Hammer, Nas

7th defender from:
Webster, Stocker, Hastie and Gus
Not sure where Arie fits in but it's a nice luxury to have.

Hard one to see how it unfolds but I’m sure RTB, Boris and the recruiting guys have a medium term plan.

Wouldnt be looking to trade Battle unless there was a way above odds deal - slightly undersized but hard as nails, nice skills plus one of the few who stood up in the GWS final. According to posters on here also well liked by the playing group.

Maybe development of one of our younger players as noted by you would also free him up to play a more rebounding role?

 

[pebblesofsand]

I think you're reading too much into it. He's no where near the best 1-on-1 defenders in the game as claimed. You say "people" have invented a mythical AA level Dougal, who are these people? I never expect him to be AA, far from it, and my posting history bears that out pretty strongly. He was trade-bait for a reason and that is he oscillates very close to liability most weeks. 2024 will be interesting allright! Happy to loop back as it unfolds.

The best effort by a key forward against us last year when Dougal played was Charlie Curnow (4 goals). Next best was Eric Hipwood (3 goals) - and Dougal didn't play on either of those players. So he must be doing something right.

As for trade bait - as I've said year upon year - every player is tradeable - I'd have traded Nick Reiwoldt in his prime if I thought it would get us a premiership.

And last year the going market rate for a serviceable FB last was $800k a year and a 6 year contract, so if someone came to us with an offer like that Dougal would be gone - simply because that sort of contract has to translate into a Top 10 trade otherwise the other club is just talking shite.

Most important stat - if not injured, Dougal has been selected 74 out of a possible 75 games since he arrived at the club. Screams starting 22 rather than close to a liability.

 

[Saintos The ITK]

I just think get Ari up to standard and he’s a lethal weapon with the ability to clear lines of offence or defence if used properly.
He’s the key to our next premiership.

 

[ScrappyDo]

I just think get Ari up to standard and he’s a lethal weapon with the ability to clear lines of offence or defence if used properly.
He’s the key to our next premiership.

It remains to be seen if he can play against men and defend properly. At his size it's pretty easy playing against skinny kids.
At the very least he stays on the list and we sell him to Tassie in a few years as they will overpay assuming he's good enough to make it that far.

 

[beside the seaside]

Caminiti, Van Es, Keeler, Schoenmaker would all be gunning for Howard's spot and I expect the changing of the guard to be mostly done by end of next season. Downside there would be loss of trade-value for Doogal.

I'd be staggered if one of those guys takes Howard's spot. Caminiti and Keeler have never played a game as a defender, Van Es is miles away and Schoenmaker is a rookie. You rarely see a rookie at full back. It would be pretty miraculous for one of those guys to lock down the full back position.

 

[BrutThough]

I'd be staggered if one of those guys takes Howard's spot. Caminiti and Keeler have never played a game as a defender, Van Es is miles away and Schoenmaker is a rookie. You rarely see a rookie at full back. It would be pretty miraculous for one of those guys to lock down the full back position.

Schoenmaker also isn't the type who would play directly on the oppositions best forward. Howard's role isn't the one he is competing for.

 

[ScrappyDo]

Schoenmaker also isn't the type who would play directly on the oppositions best forward. Howard's role isn't the one he is competing for.

Thank you. We have only 1 possible candidate on the list which is Van Ess. The rest is a pipedream.

 

[beside the seaside]

Schoenmaker also isn't the type who would play directly on the oppositions best forward. Howard's role isn't the one he is competing for.

Yeah the players he'd have in his sights are Webster and Stocker, but he would be focusing on playing well in the VFL first.

 

[seasonedsainter]

Schoenmaker also isn't the type who would play directly on the oppositions best forward. Howard's role isn't the one he is competing for.

Howard doesn't get the opposition's best forward either. EOY he didn't even get in the team and was offered up for trade but no club took him. Go figure.

 

[seasonedsainter]

I'd be staggered if one of those guys takes Howard's spot. Caminiti and Keeler have never played a game as a defender, Van Es is miles away and Schoenmaker is a rookie. You rarely see a rookie at full back. It would be pretty miraculous for one of those guys to lock down the full back position.

Well let's see where we're at this time next year. And they wouldn't need to "lock down full back". They simply need to surpass the weakest link in our backline, IE Howard. I don't see Cordy as a long-term option down there either.

 

[seasonedsainter]

The best effort by a key forward against us last year when Dougal played was Charlie Curnow (4 goals). Next best was Eric Hipwood (3 goals) - and Dougal didn't play on either of those players. So he must be doing something right.

As for trade bait - as I've said year upon year - every player is tradeable - I'd have traded Nick Reiwoldt in his prime if I thought it would get us a premiership.

And last year the going market rate for a serviceable FB last was $800k a year and a 6 year contract, so if someone came to us with an offer like that Dougal would be gone - simply because that sort of contract has to translate into a Top 10 trade otherwise the other club is just talking shite.

Most important stat - if not injured, Dougal has been selected 74 out of a possible 75 games since he arrived at the club. Screams starting 22 rather than close to a liability.

You lost me at "I'd have traded Nick Riewoldt".

Anyway. Howard played the majority of those games when were bog ordinary under a coach we sacked. We traded him in from PA and since then he's been basically our only tall mature option outside Battle/Wilkie so it natural to expect he'd get games. It's also natural to expect improvement of which I've seen none. I'll be very surprised if he's at the Club for more than two more seasons and expect he'll be moved out post-2024. The fact Lyon favoured Cordy over him & tried to trade him (no takers remember) is writing on the wall. Howard also stripped of kick-out, they tried to simplify his role because end of the day he's football IQ is poor, he gets caught out of position on the regular, struggles one-on-one and all the pointing/giving instructions/popping Kings shoulder out suggest his attitude isn't where it needs to be either. Was he in the leadership group for like 1 season then removed? All screams of a player on the edge of favour to me.

However as stated handy to have on the list for now whilst we develop more options.

Will be happy to see him improve markedly and extend his career or be traded/delisted sooner rather than later. My money is certainly on the latter.

 

[BrutThough]

Howard doesn't get the opposition's best forward either. EOY he didn't even get in the team and was offered up for trade but no club took him. Go figure.

Sorry, let's re-pharse that - Schoenmaker isn't the type to be matched up on the oppositions 195cm plus, big bodied key forward who is often their best forward. That's the role Howard plays each week.

Yes, Howard didn't get brought straight back for a final after 7 weeks out with injury and replace a key back who was performing well. The reports around the potential trade stated he shut down any trade discussions so we don't know whether there was interest or not - saying there was none is complete guess work on your end.

 

[seasonedsainter]

Sorry, let's re-pharse that - Schoenmaker isn't the type to be matched up on the oppositions 195cm plus, big bodied key forward who is often their best forward. That's the role Howard plays each week.

Yes, Howard didn't get brought straight back for a final after 7 weeks out with injury and replace a key back who was performing well. The reports around the potential trade stated he shut down any trade discussions so we don't know whether there was interest or not - saying there was none is complete guess work on your end.

Well, Schoenmaker hasn't played a game of AFL so I'd suggest pigeonholing his role is touch premature or should I say guesswork.

Cordy was playing as a forward until Lyon swung him down back to cover Howard, so they robbed Peter to pay Paul to keep Dougal away from the backline.

Unless there's significant and I mean significantly pleasing improvement across a number of levels from Dougal, his papers are all but stamped and if we don't have blokes that can go past him our backline development is stagnating.

 

[BrutThough]

Well, Schoenmaker hasn't played a game of AFL so I'd suggest pigeonholing his role is touch premature or should I say guesswork.

Cordy was playing as a forward until Lyon swung him down back to cover Howard, so they robbed Peter to pay Paul to keep Dougal away from the backline.

Unless there's significant and I mean significantly pleasing improvement across a number of levels from Dougal, his papers are all but stamped and if we don't have blokes that can go past him our backline development is stagnating.

It's not really pigeonholing if it's making an educated assessement based off their underaged football. Maybe he will develop beyond the rebounding, 3rd tall type he was drafted as, but it is extremely unlikely that he will evolve into a full back who could play the role Howard has in the year 2024.

Cordy is a key back who was swung forward because we ran out of fit options to begin the season and he was 4th in line for our key backs. Then he immediately retuned to the backline at Sandy after being dropped. Once Howard got injured, he came in and played his natural position. He kept his spot for the final because he had been in good form while Howard had missed 7 weeks with injury.

 

[magd2992]

Caminiti, Van Es, Keeler, Schoenmaker would all be gunning for Howard's spot and I expect the changing of the guard to be mostly done by end of next season. Downside there would be loss of trade-value for Doogal.

I’m not a Dougal fan but that’s three kids with zero AFL games and a second year forward being tried down back for the first time. Can I have a bit of what you’re having, please?

 

[seasonedsainter]

I’m not a Dougal fan but that’s three kids with zero AFL games and a second year forward being tried down back for the first time. Can I have a bit of what you’re having, please?

Sure, to get what I'm having, simply queue up a few games from this season, and watch Howard very closely.

 

[pebblesofsand]

Howard doesn't get the opposition's best forward either. EOY he didn't even get in the team and was offered up for trade but no club took him. Go figure.

1. No - like all FULL backs - he gets the oppo's tallest forward who is playing closest to the goal square at any given time. That's a full backs job.

2. How did his replacement go in the final?

3. Like I said - everyone is tradeable especially if the oppo is prepared to pay substantial overs. If he was offered up for trade (which I seriously doubt), if he wasn't traded it would be because any offer was simply not good enough to cover the cost of losing a starting 22 player.

Sure, to get what I'm having, simply queue up a few games from this season, and watch Howard very closely.

You mean like the selectors do after they've watched every training session, monitored every piece of data and watched every game.