Sydney 4th on ladder - can they stay there?

[Bloods Rule!]

So far the Swans have had good wins over the Crows and the Tigers and narrowly went down to the Saints while playing underdone (no pre-season) players. Right now, they are sitting 4th on the ladder with games against North and the Eagles in the next two weeks. The team seems to growing in skills and confidence each week - how far can they go this season?

The similarities with 2005 are strong. It looked like Roos was recruiting in the off season to both go out in a blaze of glory and to leave Horse with a very strong team into the future. That all appears to be right on track.

Will the Swans finish in the 8?

How about staying Top 4?

 

[GoTheSwannies]

definitely a top 8 finish, but to say we'll make top 4 after beating the 2 bottom ranked teams, our position is a bit flattering atm

 

[Tas]

Can they? Yes. Will they? We will find out over the next two months as the draw over the next two months has both games Swans should win as a top 4 side and games against likely competitors for top 4 positions.

You either make the top 4 by beating some of your competition or being flawless with the winnable games against lesser opposition. If Swans do not beat some of the big name sides I don't think they can afford to drop any games to sides that they should beat.

When you look at the ladder the top 4 is: St Kilda, Fremantle, Brisbane and Swans.

Those not in the top 4 that could/should be and will likely compete for the positions: Geelong, Bulldogs, Collingwood and perhaps the Hawks.

Fremantle and Swans playing great footy atm and deserve to be in the top 4 but there will be a lot of pressure this year, not 100% sure if they can sustain the form.

 

[Crash]

For the next couple of rounds? sure, we should start 4-1.

At round 22? probably not, however need to see how we go against some other teams with top 8 credentials, namely collingwood/hawthorn/ brisbane

Still think the top 4 will be dogs, cats, saints (even without riewoldt), lions.

If we can get over the line in some games vs top4/top8 sides then will reassess at that time.

 

[Tas]

definitely a top 8 finish, but to say we'll make top 4 after beating the 2 bottom ranked teams, our position is a bit flattering atm

You weren't far off beating the Saints at home. But it will be the performance on the road that will be the real test. Crows have been injury ravaged and a lot of their big name players are not in great form, it was a very good win at AAMI but yeah, would need to beat teams like us next week on the road consistently and hopefully beat some other teams looking to finish in the top 4 to carve out a top 4 spot.

It is not impossible, we made the top 4 in 2007 with a side that wasn't really top 4 material. We just managed to beat a few of the opposition for those spots and didn't really drop many winnable games. You just have to make the most of any run of form you have.

 

[mysainters]

I don't underestimate you guys at all, you have recruited very well, and your coach is on a mission.

I think you will right up there in September, you are one of the only teams that can completely dictate the style of play. A style that troubles many of the potential top sides, including us.

 

[set shots]

tied for 4th with about 5 other teams, and it's rnd 3. 2 spots off bottom, one off top. two wins against average sides, narrow saints loss but we did they same to st kilda and geelong last year, when we finished 12th.
impressive start, yes, but a long way to go. little bit premature to be talking top 4 as we need to make the finals first, + mathmatically every team is still a chance for top 4, bottom 4.

 

[Punxatawny_Phil]

It's not our first season in recent times that has gotten off to a positive start, so I'm not getting carried away. Top 8 would be enough of an acheivement for mine, not to mention a fitting send off for Roosy.

 

[balldman]

It's dangerous to get 2 weeks ahead of ourselves predicting a 4 & 1 start,foolhardy to get 5 months ahead & say on the back of 2 wins & a close loss were next to certain top 4.
While history (read :stats)may suggest a likelihood of this eventuating,I'm sure Roos & the leadership group would be enforcing the message to the group that they need to "create their own history"

 

[vonn]

Beating the saints... Yes of course they are a top four side.. but come on.. all sydney fans know this.. we ALWAYS match up well on them irregardless of ladder position - so I don't know how much we should be reading into that. Then you have Richmond and Adelaide, Bottom sides we smashed.

Honestly, I hope we can stay top four, but I doubt it.

 

[Doctor Jolly]

Definitely.

Cant afford to drop should-win games such as this weeks North game, but on current form I would rank them above other top 4 hopefuls such as Collingwood, and the Riewoldt-less Saints.

If you could project current form forward they'd be fighting it out with Freo and Brisbane for the top 4 guensey

Will need to lift to a higher level to compete for a flag. For example an narrow loss to the Saints in Round 1 at home, is equivalent to a 20 or 30 point loss to the Saints in Melbourne. (if they met in the finals)

 

[Nankervis brothers]

Sydney have again recruited brilliantly. They went from being a team that seemed to be on the verge of a few years in the wilderness to a finals chance in a single pre-season. They look really well balanced across the field, and as always are well coached under Roos (who seems well pumped this year).

Still, their two wins have been against one team that has the wooden spoon wrapped up, and another team that is has no-form to speak of. That said, they pushed the Saints and looked good.

Too early to tell, but i have them pegged for a 6th-8th finish.

 

[indieswan96]

There is no reason why they can't but there are also reason why they won't. Here is overview of each case:

Reasons why they can:
1 - Have a relatively easy draw and should look to be 4 - 1 going into the Cats at home.
2 - Have a good developing list with genuine stars as well who can win games of their on boot or leadership e.g. Goodes, ROK, Bradshaw, Kirk and McVeigh.
3 - Are relatively good travlers and are very hard to beat at the SCG and ANZ.
4 - They dictate the tempo like no other side and can shut down sides completely if they are on top.
5 - They have good depth with guys like MOD, Bevan, Richards, Vezpremi and Rohan playing in the 2nds.
6 - They have a more solid ruck combo than other previous years with Seaby/Mumford>Jolly
7 - I go for them so they automatically can beat anyside and it's the umpires fault if they lose or the other team is cheating e.g. Rnd 1 Riewoldt's Oscar winning performance.

Reasons why they can't:
1 - There are much better sides out there with more quality in their ranks e.g. Cats, Dogs, Pies, Saints, Lions
2 - The midfield is not elite and struggles against some of the better midfields e.g. Cats, Dogs, Saints
3 - We tend to have form slumps throughout theseason and sometimes lose 3 or 4 winable games in a row, not top 4 behaviour
4 - We are little bit on the older side with some important 29+ players but we also have some youth to balance it out.
5 - Our goal kicking has been known to let us down at stages which could be a factor
6 - If injuries hit we may be exposed in certain positions e.g Ruck or KPB
7 - There alot of sides we wil have to compete with for a top 4 spot; Cats, Saints, Dogs, Pies, Lions, Freo and even Hawks if they can pull themselves together
8 - We also tend not to demolis teams so our percentage may not be as good as say a team like the Lions who are capable of beating teams by 100+ and the last few spots could be decided on percentage.

My Diagnosis:
We will look good for top 4 for a while but I think a finish around 5 - 8 is a much more realistic target for this year. Look for the bloods to be a Top 4 and Flag contender from 2012 - 2016 and beyond

 

[Doctor Jolly]

One obvious risk with Sydney is that McGlynn has been pivotal in both of the last 2 strong wins.

Be interesting to see if he can maintain that sort of form now that opposition coaches will be taking a much closer look at him, possibly even tagging him.

But Sydney's back line is absolutely "special" this year. With Grundy/LRT/Bolton easily as good as the 2005 LRT/Bolton/Barry combination, then amazing run generated not just by Kennelly, but Shaw and Matner.

Midfield is probably similar to 2005 in class. Possibly better with Krik and Bolton still playing well, but now OKeefe and McVeigh involved.

Ruck division is down. Ball and Jolly dominated 2005. Mumford might be as good as Jolly (might?), but Seaby is only servicable as a backup.

Forward line is well down on 2005. Goodes is still growing into the role. Bradshaw slightly better the Mickey O. But still down on Hall, Davis (very good in 2005), Schneider and Okeefe (as a forward).

The forward line is the best its looked for the last few years, but still not at 2005 levels.

 

[Nankervis brothers]

There is no reason why they can't but there are also reason why they won't. Here is overview of each case:

Reasons why they can:
1 - Have a relatively easy draw and should look to be 4 - 1 going into the Cats at home.
2 - Have a good developing list with genuine stars as well who can win games of their on boot or leadership e.g. Goodes, ROK, Bradshaw, Kirk and McVeigh.
3 - Are relatively good travlers and are very hard to beat at the SCG and ANZ.
4 - They dictate the tempo like no other side and can shut down sides completely if they are on top.
5 - They have good depth with guys like MOD, Bevan, Richards, Vezpremi and Rohan playing in the 2nds.
6 - They have a more solid ruck combo than other previous years with Seaby/Mumford>Jolly
7 - I go for them so they automatically can beat anyside and it's the umpires fault if they lose or the other team is cheating e.g. Rnd 1 Riewoldt's Oscar winning performance.

Reasons why they can't:
1 - There are much better sides out there with more quality in their ranks e.g. Cats, Dogs, Pies, Saints, Lions
2 - The midfield is not elite and struggles against some of the better midfields e.g. Cats, Dogs, Saints
3 - We tend to have form slumps throughout theseason and sometimes lose 3 or 4 winable games in a row, not top 4 behaviour
4 - We are little bit on the older side with some important 29+ players but we also have some youth to balance it out.
5 - Our goal kicking has been known to let us down at stages which could be a factor
6 - If injuries hit we may be exposed in certain positions e.g Ruck or KPB
7 - There alot of sides we wil have to compete with for a top 4 spot; Cats, Saints, Dogs, Pies, Lions, Freo and even Hawks if they can pull themselves together
8 - We also tend not to demolis teams so our percentage may not be as good as say a team like the Lions who are capable of beating teams by 100+ and the last few spots could be decided on percentage.

My Diagnosis:
We will look good for top 4 for a while but I think a finish around 5 - 8 is a much more realistic target for this year. Look for the bloods to be a Top 4 and Flag contender from 2012 - 2016 and beyond

I'm not sure about this (bolded part above).

As Roos has said, the team can't bottom out due to the market here, so a complete rebuild is out of the question. Sydney renovate their list instead, and do a great job of it. But for mine this keeps them from building a young list form scratch that peaks at roughly the same time, in turn providing an extended premiership window.

I could be completely wrong (and 05 would suggest i am), but i wonder if the Swans approach keeps them as a top 8 side, but not a top 2 side.....

 

[Doctor Jolly]

I agree with the last poster. Sydney dont build an all conquering team by dropping down the ladder. They will never have the quality of a Brisbane, Geelong, or on-paper Saints of today.

But what they do do, is stay there and abouts, so that in years where one era ends, before the next starts up, they can snaffle a flag with a good injury run.

Think about 2005 and 2006. There was no standout team all year. With Geelong on the wane, and Reiwoldt-less saints, it could be that sort of year again.

 

[indieswan96]

I'm not sure about this (bolded part above).

As Roos has said, the team can't bottom out due to the market here, so a complete rebuild is out of the question. Sydney renovate their list instead, and do a great job of it. But for mine this keeps them from building a young list form scratch that peaks at roughly the same time, in turn providing an extended premiership window.

I could be completely wrong (and 05 would suggest i am), but i wonder if the Swans approach keeps them as a top 8 side, but not a top 2 side.....

Well I think we had a premiership window of around 5 years last time if you look at it:

2003 - PF
2004 - SF
2005 - Premiers
2006 - Runners Up
2007 - EF

I would say that's a premiership window and there is no reason to suggest why we can't replicate but you're entitled to your own opinion.

 

[Pal22]

Looking at the draw for the next 8 weeks, they play the following teams and on form should:

Rd 4. North @ Etihad - Favourite WIN
Rd 5. WCE @ SCG -Favourite WIN
Rd 6. Bris @ SCG - 50/50 but at home for them WIN
Rd.7 Geel @ Skilled Stadium - 30/70 chance LOSS
Rd 8. WB @ Manuka - 30/70 chance LOSS
Rd 9. Frem @ SCG - 70/30 chance at home WIN
Rd.10 Haw @ MCG - 50/50 WIN/LOSS
Rd.11 Ess @ SCG - 80/20 chance WIN

Looking at that draw 7-4 or 8-3 is quite acheiveable for them at the half way point!

 

[hazz33]

this is my ladder for this year
1:st kilda win grannie by 13
2:geelong lose prelim to dogs by 1
3:bulldogs runners up by 13
4:hawthorn lose prelim to saints by 23
5:sydney lose semi to hawks by 18
6:brisbane lose semi to dogs by 10
7:magpies lose elimination to lions by 47
8:fremantle los elimination to swans by 26
9ort adelaide
10:adelaide
11:melbourne
12:essendon
13:west coast
14:carlton
15:north
16:tigers

 

[Doctor Jolly]

this is my ladder for this year
1:st kilda win grannie by 13
2:geelong lose prelim to dogs by 1
3:bulldogs runners up by 13
4:hawthorn lose prelim to saints by 23
5:sydney lose semi to hawks by 18
6:brisbane lose semi to dogs by 10
7:magpies lose elimination to lions by 47
8:fremantle los elimination to swans by 26
9ort adelaide
10:adelaide
11:melbourne
12:essendon
13:west coast
14:carlton
15:north
16:tigers

Dont you read bigfooty. The Saints are G.O.N.E. Geelong are too old. Hawthorn will be exposed with no rucks, the pies are internally imploding, and the rest are useless.

Its going to be grand final out of Freo, Brisbane and Sydney. Get with the program, man!

 

[Bloods Rule!]

Dont you read bigfooty. The Saints are G.O.N.E. Geelong are too old. Hawthorn will be exposed with no rucks, the pies are internally imploding, and the rest are useless.

Its going to be grand final out of Freo, Brisbane and Sydney. Get with the program, man!

No Doggies? Eade and Baz vs their old team would be fun on GF Day.

 

[Dangas]

IDK, too early to call us Top 4 contenders

 

[Brett5150]

I've always thought this year will be a good one for sydney, since it Roos last year as coach. I say they'll finish 3rd to 6th after the h/a season. They just have to learn to beat collingwood.

 

[Crash]

They just have to learn to beat collingwood.

Might be asking a bit much there, wouldnt wanna get greedy after breaking 1 of our hoodoos

 

[1eye]

Anything can happen, it's a long season.