Tas Tasmanian Election 2021

[Caesar]

Didn’t see a thread for Australia’s second-biggest local council election.

Looks like it might be interesting. The government has gone early due to losing their majority, and attempting to capitalise on their COVID bounce. They held a slim lead in the polls at the time the election was called.

The opposition will want to capitalise on big elective surgery and public housing waiting lists, and the fact that due to COVID and an early election date most government promises from the last election have not yet been delivered on.

The government have had the better of the campaign so far, and it seems quite possible they might sneak back in with a majority. If not I don’t like their chances of forming a minority government.

Seats when the election was called were as follows:

Liberal: 12
Labor: 9
Greens: 2
Independents: 2

Since then, one of the independents has aligned herself with the Liberals giving them a nominal majority.

I am not totally au fait with the Hare-Clark electoral system but the best option for the Liberals to regain their majority seems to be holding all existing seats, and picking up one in Clark.

 

[Baltimore Jack]

I haven't seen any recent polls on this

Anyone have any?

 

[Caesar]

I haven't seen any recent polls on this

Anyone have any?

EMRS State Voting Intentions Poll - Enterprise Marketing and Research Services (EMRS)

Polling was conducted from the 15th to the 23rd of February 2021. 1,000 adult Tasmanian residents were interviewed and responses weighted to reflect the Tasmanian adult voting population. A sample of this size provides a maximum margin error of +/- 3.1 percentage points at the 95% confidence...

www.emrs.com.au

 

[Father Jack]

The Government put themselves in minority by kicking the Speaker out of the party, meaning they could go to the polls much earlier than they otherwise would have had to, and it does look like they've caught the Opposition on the hop a bit. Whether or not they felt it was an advantage to have an election campaign whilst the opposition leader is in the latter stages of a pregnancy is also up for debate.

 

[Caesar]

The Government put themselves in minority by kicking the Speaker out of the party

That’s not true. She resigned of her own volition, after losing preselection

 

[Gough]

The Tasmanian government only fell into minority because of factionalism unlike SA and NSW where it was as a result of police/ICAC proceedings or the Feds who only remain in majority because the PM won't hold his MPs accountable. Vote for the Liberal Party if you want to end up with a minority government.

 

[random260]

Lnp are cashing in. Hell yes!!!

 

[Caesar]

Vote for the Liberal Party if you want to end up with a minority government.

Historically the Tasmanian Liberals have been very reluctant to govern in minority

If no party secures 13+ seats, my money is on a Labor minority government

 

[Caesar]

Lnp are cashing in. Hell yes!!!

The LNP is Queensland only and the Nationals do not really exist any more in Tasmania

 

[Father Jack]

That’s not true. She resigned of her own volition, after losing preselection

Well yes, if you want to be extremely technical.

 

[Caesar]

Well yes, if you want to be extremely technical.

It's not technical. She knew she was giving up future preselection when she chose to vote as an independent. Nonetheless, she could have easily served out the rest of her term as a Liberal. MPs lose preselection all the time, and comparatively few of them quit their party on the spot.

Nobody kicked her out. She chose to leave because she wanted to run as an independent.

 

[Father Jack]

It's not technical. She knew she was giving up future preselection when she chose to vote as an independent. Nonetheless, she could have easily served out the rest of her term as a Liberal. MPs lose preselection all the time, and comparatively few of them quit their party on the spot.

Nobody kicked her out. She chose to leave because she wanted to run as an independent.

Yes and it completely took the government by surprise and forced them into an early election

The crux of the matter is that they (at best) engineered a way to make sure she wasn't technically part of the party so they could use that as an excuse to go to the polls early. It made no difference whatsoever in practical terms, they could still have governed perfectly fine either way.

 

[Caesar]

The crux of the matter is that they (at best) engineered a way to make sure she wasn't technically part of the party so they could use that as an excuse to go to the polls early.

lol, nonsense - Sue Hickey went through a normal Liberal preselection process for Clark, and understandably lost because she's spent the last 3 years giving the finger to the preselectors

That she chose to quit the Liberals altogether as a result is entirely her own doing

I'm curious to hear what you think the Liberals could have done to avoid this situation (short of re-endorsing a candidate who has proven she has no interest in supporting their policy platform)

 

[Hank Scorpion]

I am not totally au fait with the Hare-Clark electoral system but the best option for the Liberals to regain their majority seems to be holding all existing seats, and picking up one in Clark at the expense of Labor.

The Libs were still some way off getting a 3rd in Clark/Denison last time, so would need a fairly substantial swing towards them to gain, even considering Ogilvie's defection.

I'd expect a repeat of the result in 2018. A mixed swing around the state, but no change in seat distribution. Unless there's something local that has the Libs on the nose in Lyons - the government will be returned. They had very healthy buffers in the other divisions, so there'd need to be a substantial appetite for change, which, anecdotally, doesn't seem to be happening.

 

[Father Jack]

lol, nonsense - Sue Hickey went through a normal Liberal preselection process for Clark, and understandably lost because she's spent the last 3 years giving the finger to the preselectors

That she chose to quit the Liberals altogether as a result is entirely her own doing

I'm curious to hear what you think the Liberals could have done to avoid this situation (short of re-endorsing a candidate who has proven she has no interest in supporting their policy platform)

What materially changed from when Hickey became speaker to now? Nothing. They just wanted an excuse for an early election so they forced the issue.

 

[Caesar]

The Libs were still some way off getting a 3rd in Clark/Denison last time, so would need a fairly substantial swing towards them to gain, even considering Ogilvie's defection.

By gain, I mean getting back to two seats - when the election was called, the Liberals had one seat in Clark and 12 seats in Parliament. Ogilvie's defection has nominally taken them back to 2 and 13, so they have a majority on paper, but what really matters is what happens at the election.

Ogilvie is effectively sitting in a Labor seat, which is a tough win for her. She knows that the Liberals are probably going to take back Sue Hickey's seat, so moving across to sit in that seat is a smart move. Greens seat is no change, they have that one locked up.

That means the last two seats are a direct contest between Sue Hickey and the ALP. It seems likely that Hickey will get one, which leaves the ALP with one seat - same as now, but effectively a worse performance than 2018 (where they won two).

What materially changed from when Hickey became speaker to now? Nothing. They just wanted an excuse for an early election so they forced the issue.

lol, how did they 'force the issue'? By holding preselections? Are you suggesting the Liberal party shouldn't preselect candidates?

I could understand your perspective if the Liberals had deliberately pulled forward preselections in Clark or something, but that's not what happened.

 

[Father Jack]

lol, how did they 'force the issue'? By holding preselections? Are you suggesting the Liberal party shouldn't preselect candidates?

I could understand your perspective if the Liberals had deliberately pulled forward preselections in Clark or something, but that's not what happened.

Do you really think that it forced them to an election?

 

[Caesar]

Do you really think that it forced them to an election?

Hang on, you're shifting the goalposts a fair bit here

All I took issue with was your claim that the Liberals kicked Sue Hickey out of the party or otherwise engineered her resignation -something that is demonstrably false

If you want to talk about whether Hickey's resignation justifies an election, that's cool but it's a totally different discussion - FWIW I agree her resignation changed little in a practical sense

 

[tandino]

What's so bad about the Premier calling the election when he wants anyway?

 

[Father Jack]

Hang on, you're shifting the goalposts a fair bit here

All I took issue with was your claim that the Liberals kicked Sue Hickey out of the party or otherwise engineered her resignation -something that is demonstrably false

If you want to talk about whether Hickey's resignation justifies an election, that's cool but it's a totally different discussion - FWIW I agree her resignation changed little in a practical sense

From what I've seen the Libs engineered her departure from the party, and then used that as an excuse to call the election. You don't see it that way, and that's fine.

 

[Father Jack]

What's so bad about the Premier calling the election when he wants anyway?

Nothing, but he didn't want to look opportunistic, even though (in my view) he was.

 

[Caesar]

From what I've seen the Libs engineered her departure from the party

You’ve provided no actual explanation of how you think they did that

holding a normal preselection ballot doesn’t count

 

[tandino]

Nothing, but he didn't want to look opportunistic, even though (in my view) he was.

Seeing that politicians are in the business of opportunism anyway, it's no great hanging offence is it?

 

[Father Jack]

Seeing that politicians are in the business of opportunism anyway, it's no great hanging offence is it?

No, but they could at least be upfront about it. Either way, it's working insofar as Labor are a bit on the hop at the moment.

 

[random260]

No, but they could at least be upfront about it. Either way, it's working insofar as Labor are a bit on the hop at the moment.

You want the premier to say something along the line of

"Because you love us so much we would like to call an election so we can have more power"? Because that would work out well wouldn't it