Teams you think will definitely not make the 8

[hawker92]

I think Brisbane are smokies for the Wooden Spoon. With the mass exodus last year leaving them with almost no depth, all it will take is a few key injuries to Rich, Redden or Rockliff and they'll be in a world of pain. Leppa will need to work miracles to net them the 10 wins they had in 2013.

Will be bottom 4 but I think St. Kilda will take the spoon this year.

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

Agreed. The problem for Footscray is leg speed and foot skills, what happened when you guys played Richmond is you'd turn it over and you wouldn't get it back. I think you guys have the contested level fine, it's just improving the polish. It would also help going forward if you had decent KPFs.

The turnovers did improve as the season went on though - in the last six weeks we had the second-most disposals in the league with the highest disposal efficiency of any side. It's an area we need to show more consistency in and also bridge the gap between our best and worst disposals, but it was starting to show improvement in the back half of the year. The next step is being able to reproduce this over an entire season.

As for our tall options, it doesn't help that all of our project KPFs keep turning into KPDs. Redpath, Roughead and Roberts were all drafted as key forwards yet now reside in the back line (although we seem to be hesitant to decide where we want Roberts to play - don't really agree with the club's decision to develop him as a swingman). Campbell is a ruckman first and foremost and had a deplorable one-on-one win rate (18% - by far the lowest of the top ten players in one-on-ones contested [of which he was #1]), Jones is unreliable, Williams can't get on the park and the likes of Crameri and Grant are moreso ground ball retrievers than key marking targets. At the moment we rely on a forward line that plays reasonably small - Dahlhaus, Dickson, Grant, Smith and now Crameri feeding off the inevitable dropped mark. It's just not a sustainable avenue to goal, especially in close matches. This year's draft is stacked full of key position players, so I'm hoping we target one.

 

[Tas]

I disagree with this - our late-season form came on the back of a much more free-flowing, accurate and efficient game style than we played with for the rest of the year. When the big losses started coming - for example against Adelaide and Richmond - we locked down and turned pretty much everything into a scrap, and that's partially what caused our terrible early-season form. We were much more effective in getting the ball on the outside and much more efficient in our delivery - both by foot and by hand - and looked a much better uncontested side late in the year. Our worst form came when we congested the shit out of everything; our best came when we were able to relax a bit more and play more of an outside oriented game. We do still congest when the opposition starts to get on top - but almost every team in the league does this.

Anyway, not trying to argue that we'll make finals or anything of the sort - just that I don't think we got our late season wins on the back of congestion.

Once Lower and Smith were out of the side it became better balanced team because you had a lot of guys in the side that had disproportionately high tackles and contested ball stats compared to outside stats, when you run with 2 taggers and 3 inside mids it doesn't give you a lot of scope for creative run and carry through the middle.

However, while there were good results in the second half of the season, especially after the Richmond game in round 13 you still lost to Melbourne and were lucky to get over the line vs GWS, that exposes the pitfalls of not locking down games you also become easier to score against as well when the ball rebounds a lot faster and there is more space in your defensive half.

I think if you continued to choke the life out of games you probably would have won those two games and might have lost vs Carlton and Crows, so in the washup I think the easier second half had more to do with the number of wins and losses than the number.

I think the dogs are on the right track, I just don't think it is probable that you will make the 8 and I just used the club as an example of one that I thought was probably not going to make but theoretically could with a bit of luck, or a lot of luck.

That game vs Carlton was great to watch, good attack, good defending. The problem is that is going to be extremely hard to reproduce consistently for some time imo.

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

Once Lower and Smith were out of the side it became better balanced team because you had a lot of guys in the side that had disproportionately high tackles and contested ball stats compared to outside stats, when you run with 2 taggers and 3 inside mids it doesn't give you a lot of scope for creative run and carry through the middle.

However, while there were good results in the second half of the season, especially after the Richmond game in round 13 you still lost to Melbourne and were lucky to get over the line vs GWS, that exposes the pitfalls of not locking down games you also become easier to score against as well when the ball rebounds a lot faster and there is more space in your defensive half.

I think if you continued to choke the life out of games you probably would have won those two games and might have lost vs Carlton and Crows, so in the washup I think the easier second half had more to do with the number of wins and losses than the number.

I think the dogs are on the right track, I just don't think it is probable that you will make the 8 and I just used the club as an example of one that I thought was probably not going to make but theoretically could with a bit of luck, or a lot of luck.

That game vs Carlton was great to watch, good attack, good defending. The problem is that is going to be extremely hard to reproduce consistently for some time imo.

The Melbourne and GWS games were the straw that broke the camel's back - we still displayed unreasonable team selection (as you alluded to earlier) in both of those matches and our real results came after that. Against Melbourne we played Cordy, Macrae, Stringer, Hrovat, Talia, Hunter, Lower, Smith, Liberatore, Wallis, Johannisen and Boyd - that's a combination of far too much inexperience and far too much grunt inside while spreading our options outside way too thin. Compare that to round 16 against Essendon, when our improvement began (rather suddenly) - of the above, only Smith, Liberatore, Hrovat, Talia, Wallis and Hunter played. It was a much, much more balanced side and that's when our real results started coming, rather than when we stopped choking the life out of games.

But yeah, apart from that I agree with you totally. How long we can sustain our form for is still a massive question mark, and given our limited options on the outside and a forward setup that isn't ideal, I'm not yet convinced it'll be long enough to push for finals. Time will tell I guess, though.

 

[Tas]

The Melbourne and GWS games were the straw that broke the camel's back - we still displayed unreasonable team selection (as you alluded to earlier) in both of those matches and our real results came after that. Against Melbourne we played Cordy, Macrae, Stringer, Hrovat, Talia, Hunter, Lower, Smith, Liberatore, Wallis, Johannisen and Boyd - that's a combination of far too much inexperience and far too much grunt inside while spreading our options outside way too thin. Compare that to round 16 against Essendon, when our improvement began (rather suddenly) - of the above, only Smith, Liberatore, Hrovat, Talia, Wallis and Hunter played. It was a much, much more balanced side and that's when our real results started coming, rather than when we stopped choking the life out of games.

But yeah, apart from that I agree with you totally. How long we can sustain our form for is still a massive question mark, and given our limited options on the outside and a forward setup that isn't ideal, I'm not yet convinced it'll be long enough to push for finals. Time will tell I guess, though.

I still think the Dogs will be good to watch, might just be a few games you will not want to watch again on the replay. In the long run I don't expect there to be a lengthy rebuild process. You will probably just go through a phase like we did for a few years where we have been turning over reasonable to solid footballers for highly talented prospects. It is just impossible to rebuild, be ultra competitive and have depth as well so you have to make some sacrifices.

Dogs have good prospects all over the park, they just need some more of them to take that next step sooner rather than later so you can accelerate the rebuild, if guys are going to take 3, 4 or 5 years to reach their potential it makes the rebuild harder, longer and gives you a shorter opportunity to shine.

 

[Richo83]

The Melbourne and GWS games were the straw that broke the camel's back - we still displayed unreasonable team selection (as you alluded to earlier) in both of those matches and our real results came after that. Against Melbourne we played Cordy, Macrae, Stringer, Hrovat, Talia, Hunter, Lower, Smith, Liberatore, Wallis, Johannisen and Boyd - that's a combination of far too much inexperience and far too much grunt inside while spreading our options outside way too thin. Compare that to round 16 against Essendon, when our improvement began (rather suddenly) - of the above, only Smith, Liberatore, Hrovat, Talia, Wallis and Hunter played. It was a much, much more balanced side and that's when our real results started coming, rather than when we stopped choking the life out of games.

But yeah, apart from that I agree with you totally. How long we can sustain our form for is still a massive question mark, and given our limited options on the outside and a forward setup that isn't ideal, I'm not yet convinced it'll be long enough to push for finals. Time will tell I guess, though.

It wouldn't surprise me to see Boyd phased out this year. Footscray have number of young inside mids who probably should be playing ahead of him, it at all. Cordy wont make it IMO, but I'd stick with playing Macrae and Stringer, they're probably your most talented outside mids (although Stringer isn't your typical outside mid).

 

[Richo83]

What is the future of Smith? He plays a very inside game, isn't a great kick, is young but Footscray have a lot of inside mids.

 

[Engimal]

Melbourne, Giants, Bulldogs, Lions, Saints and Carlton have no hope.

Agreed, minus Carlton. They could potentially scrape into 8th spot, like North did in 2012.

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

It wouldn't surprise me to see Boyd phased out this year. Footscray have number of young inside mids who probably should be playing ahead of him, it at all. Cordy wont make it IMO, but I'd stick with playing Macrae and Stringer, they're probably your most talented outside mids (although Stringer isn't your typical outside mid).

Yeah, think you're right on Boyd. While it's not exactly a super reliable stream of information, our coach said that he'll be tried in run-with roles, up forward and through the midfield on the AFL website's "Twitter takeover", which sounded to me a bit like they're clambering to try and make up a position he can play without getting in the way of our kids. It's a tough balancing act - he's a fantastic leader both on and off the field, has great positioning and is always a consistent competitor (something that our kids still lack), but his kicking is a liability and we really need to get games into the likes of Hrovat, Smith and Macrae.

I'm not confident on Cordy either, but Stringer and Macrae will be good players. I think long-term Macrae becomes an inside midfielder who can play outside; he's just mostly limited to the outside due to his body at this stage.

What is the future of Smith? He plays a very inside game, isn't a great kick, is young but Footscray have a lot of inside mids.

Smith's played his best footy for us off a half forward flank, running hard, burying himself into packs and crumbing goals. His outside work was actually developing very nicely prior to his injury, but his kicking still needs a lot of work. Thankfully he's a very good decision maker which masks this a little, but it's still a problem. He's rated very highly internally and is also very well liked by the coach, so I can't imagine he's going anywhere any time soon. For the moment he's still best 22 every day of the week when fit in my opinion. I tend to agree that he may find himself on the outer at some stage, however. He's a difficult one to place, especially given his injury. I'm not sure he's one to look elsewhere if he's not getting frequent opportunity over a short amount of time - he's a fierce competitor and has said numerous times that he feeds off the competition for spots and thrives for it, so unless the club pushes him out (which I still think is unlikely), or the lack of opportunity goes on for a decent amount of time, I'm not sure I see him moving on.

 

[SBYM]

Wasn't this thread hijacked by Lions fans?

How embarrassment.

 

[Joker91]

GWS
Melbourne
StKilda
Carlton
Western Bulldogs

 

[Bazzar]

Agreed, minus Carlton. They could potentially scrape into 8th spot, like North did in 2012.

But North have a good list of talent, Carlton are bare except for 7 or 8 players.

 

[Rod Stroker]

Yeah Brisbane. Definitely Brisbane.

 

[Blues_Man]

But North have a good list of talent, Carlton are bare except for 7 or 8 players.

Says a lot about your mob then ...have beaten them once in the last decade ..and couldn't get the job done in last Years Elim .

 

[QS]

Brisbane.. that was horrible

 

[Doctor Feel]

stick a fork in brisbane. they will be competitive but their depth is rubbish.

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

Still think it's too early to say Brisbane definitely won't make it - Fremantle lost to St Kilda playing a team with comparable experience last year and made the GF only weeks later. The team the Lions fielded tonight was deplorable, but a long, long way off their best. Their best 22 has lost very few players from the 22 that beat Essendon and Geelong last year.

It's very unlikely that they'll make it but attempting to draw conclusive predictions from a pre-season match with the reigning premiers against a TAC Cup team is bonkers.

 

[i am a logo]

Brisbane now a lock to miss the finals

 

[QS]

Still think it's too early to say Brisbane definitely won't make it - Fremantle lost to St Kilda playing a team with comparable experience last year and made the GF only weeks later. The team the Lions fielded tonight was deplorable, but a long, long way off their best. Their best 22 has lost very few players from the 22 that beat Essendon and Geelong last year.

It's very unlikely that they'll make it but attempting to draw conclusive predictions from a pre-season match with the reigning premiers against a TAC Cup team is bonkers.

Who allowed this guy to make some sort of sense??
Brisbane.

 

[i am a logo]

The team the Lions fielded tonight was deplorable

So your saying the lions youth is deplorable? i think that's enough to suggest they won't make the 8 for a very long time.

 

[Righteo]

Needs moar reactionary.

I know this is a futile plea but ****ing hell can we please not make any big calls during mickey mouse season?

So your saying the lions youth is deplorable? i think that's enough to suggest they won't make the 8 for a very long time.

CBF comparing the strengths of the respective sides fielded last night but I'm going to assume many of the Lions better players who missed would be pretty young. I don't think Brisbane of 2014 have any less talent than Port of 2013, of course respective coaching talent is yet to be seen.

 

[Bazzar]

Says a lot about your mob then ...have beaten them once in the last decade ..and couldn't get the job done in last Years Elim .

This is 2014, stop living in the past.

 

[KillaKanga]

Can we assume that whoever loses tonight will NOT make the 8?

Sent from my GT-I9305T using Tapatalk

 

[Dannnnnnnnnn]

So your saying the lions youth is deplorable? i think that's enough to suggest they won't make the 8 for a very long time.

No, I'm saying that a side filled with first year players who haven't even completed a full pre-season is deplorable. I was quite impressed by a few of their young players last night (Bourke, Aish, Green, Mayes, Freeman, while Robertson and Cutler did some nice things), but quite simply they had no chance. Brisbane's youth is skewed as they were forced to take so many picks this year - if you took 6-7 picks in the one draft and then played them all in the same game against a strong Hawthorn outfit you'd get smashed accordingly. Missing from the Lions team last night were Rockliff, Rich, Redden, Brown, Merrett, Adcock, Moloney, Hanley, Staker, Leuenberger and Patfull, while McGuane will likely slot into their forward line and provide some maturity, structure and experience. They had two players over 100 games, and two more in the 50-100 range. That's it. You couldn't have not expected the result last night; if any team in the competition did this they'd lose easily as well. Brisbane's forwards got very little opportunity last night as their midfield simply couldn't get their hands on the ball - that's not exactly a surprise. How many teams could deal with not playing their #1 ruckman, #1 fullback and top five midfielders against the reigning premiers? I don't think many could.

The word 'depth' is thrown around a lot, and while it's necessary, a lot seem to believe that if you replace all your first choices with depth players you're going to get a similar result - not even Hawthorn can boast depth to this extreme. The Lions are light on, absolutely, but last night guys like Lester, Harwood, Green and the like did enough to make their case and show that they can cope at the level.

I'm in agreement that Brisbane are most likely a few years off - but trying to draw conclusions from a NAB Challenge game featuring a strong Hawks lineup and Brisbane's reserves team is akin to saying that Fremantle are no chance in the finals because their 2nds lost to St Kilda in round 23. It's ridiculous. Are they a premiership winning side? Hell no. But does the result conclusively say that they may as well give up on 2014? No. There are twelve players mentioned above who didn't play - and they're probably twelve of Brisbane's best 15-18 players.

 

[Tas]

I think it was a poor decision to expose that many young players last night, you can cause psychological damage which is hard to repair on young impressionable kids in the short-term who went into the game thinking they are decent footballer prospects who probably had their first of many sleepless nights wondering now if they have what it takes.

Ask supporters who have seen very young sides like North, Richmond and Port supporters who have seen young groups lose confidence very quickly. For the Lions' sake I hope the damage done isn't too severe.