Teams you think will definitely not make the 8

[Goggin Our Best]

Id say Carlton (unless a couple of their draft picks -turn out to be absolute guns)

I think Carlton had a definite Premiership window from 09 to 2011 - what i base that on - is in 2009 and 2010 they played Geelong at the Mcg - and both times beat Geelong easily - they were far too quick- but that was 4 or 5 years ago Judd was at his absolute peak - in fact in one of those games - Selwood was placed on Judd - and its the only time ive seen Selwood thrashed - Judd absolutely killed him , Waite was at the right age then - same goes for the 3 little blokes

Even in 2011 = i was relieved when West Coast beat Carlton narrowly in that final- otherwise it would have been a Geel - Carl PF - and that would have been a 50 - 50 game- Carlton would have been a big chance of winning - and would have faced Collingwood - who theve got a very good historical record against

But i think the opportunity has gone - and when you look at their list now - theres nothing really to get excited about - you cant point to one young player - and say -that guys going to be a champion

I think they will struggle - 10th to 13th is where i think they will finish

 

[raskolnikov]

St. Kilda
GWS
Melbourne
North
Carlton

 

[KillaKanga]

St. Kilda
GWS
Melbourne
North
Carlton

Do you think North and Carlton will DEFINITELY not make the 8? If so why

 

[Slax]

GWS, Bulldogs, St kilda, Melbourne, West Coast, Carlton, Brisbane

 

[raskolnikov]

Do you think North and Carlton will DEFINITELY not make the 8? If so why

Carlton were very lucky last year to make the finals and technically didn't. I don't see where their improvement is going to come from. I actually think they will slide.
North are overrated. Yes they lost some close games last year, but good teams wouldn't have lost them. Also, I don't rate Brad Scott as a coach.

 

[KillaKanga]

Carlton were very lucky last year to make the finals and technically didn't. I don't see where their improvement is going to come from. I actually think they will slide.
North are overrated. Yes they lost some close games last year, but good teams wouldn't have lost them. Also, I don't rate Brad Scott as a coach.

So you think they are a certainty to miss the 8?

 

[madmug]

So you think they are a certainty to miss the 8?

I think thats what he said.
I dont think they are certainties to miss. They both are part of the group who you would think could end up between 4th & 12th. At this time of year its a bit hard to be too catagoric about the ladder. Top side last year should still be about. The mid range sides will slug it out again.
Luck with injuries & close results will make the difference.

 

[Harris Specter]

Teams that definitely won't make the 8. GWS, Melbourne and Saints.

Next bracket with an outside chance: Bulldogs, Eagles, Lions, Gold Coast

More likely to make the finals: Essendon, North, Adelaide

 

[KillaKanga]

I think thats what he said.
I dont think they are certainties to miss. They both are part of the group who you would think could end up between 4th & 12th. At this time of year its a bit hard to be too catagoric about the ladder. Top side last year should still be about. The mid range sides will slug it out again.
Luck with injuries & close results will make the difference.

Actually no he didn't clarify that. 'I think Carlton will slide' is very different to being 'certain'

He doesn't rate the coach also isn't categorical.

 

[thetradesman]

Melbourne, Saints, Lions, Eagles, Giants, Suns, Carlton and North.

 

[Kramer1]

Some interesting takes on Carlton's fortunes here.

We are a better list. Better balanced, we've added two walk up best 22 players. Talented kids in Menzel, Docherty, Graham, Cripps, Watson and Bell that will be pushing for spots.

We have removed the temptation to ever play three small forwards or rucks again in trading Hampson and effectively replacing Betts with Thomas.

Majority of our key players are in an ideal age bracket, with only Judd and Scotland not likely to be scaling previous heights of performance. I exclude Waite as age, injury and random suspensions aside he is actually in close enough to career best form and enjoying a rare uninterrupted pre-season.

Couple of key players in Murphy and Carrazzo back to full fitness.

Now accustomed to Malthouse game plan and expectations.

We will be a more competitive and ultimately better team, but doesn't necessarily add up to a march up the ladder. Largely dicated by how much teams around us are likely to improve. Richmond and North could both reasonably expect to improve, Essendon won't go away, Adelaide and WCE should be stinging from poor 2013's. GC look primed.

Really only three teams I would rule out of finals contention. The balance could play out any number of ways.

 

[van peebles]

mmmmm
malthouse does have a knack of having a look at all the list in the first year and then cutting away the fat.
second year generally is to play MY way and improvement will be forthcoming.
just a few question marks over waite,backline,injured ruckman and who is going to improve.
watch and wait on this mob for me.

 

[MarkT2]

Apart from GWS, Melbourne and St Kilda, I can't see Gold Coast, Brisbane or the Dogs making the 8 at all. I have strong doubts on WCE and Adelaide and IMO Carlton won't improve on last year. Port will have a lot more attention put into them and will battle with North, Essendon & Collingwood to make up the numbers. I think Port & North will end up missing out.

 

[blue harvest]

Hawks.

With Buddy gone we are 60 goals down, will only have 17 players on the field and our other useless forwards will be simultaneously triple teamed by the best 3 defenders each week. Can't see how we'll win a match really.

 

[Tiger2709]

Actually no he didn't clarify that. 'I think Carlton will slide' is very different to being 'certain'

He doesn't rate the coach also isn't categorical.

Why are you so concerned it is only one persons opinion, you sound as if you are not overly confident of North's chances yourself?

For me North will probably take Carlton's spot in the 8, well if they can start winning the tight ones.

 

[Tiger2709]

Hawks.

With Buddy gone we are 60 goals down, will only have 17 players on the field and our other useless forwards will be simultaneously triple teamed by the best 3 defenders each week. Can't see how we'll win a match really.

So you have finally woken up to the inevitable

 

[KillaKanga]

Why are you so concerned it is only one persons opinion, you sound as if you are not overly confident of North's chances yourself?

For me North will probably take Carlton's spot in the 8, well if they can start winning the tight ones.

Not concerned in the slightest. Just knew he was taking a cheap shot and wanted to call him on it.

Way too many teams fighting for the 8 this year. I've also seen that losing a couple of close ones and losing confidence can derail a finals worthy team.

I would put $50 on North to make the 8 but not $500 if that makes sense.

 

[Tiger2709]

Overall I think Carlton has a deeper and better list than Richmond. The only concern they have is if Daisy doesn't come up and if Judd misses more than the expected 2-3 rounds. Should these 2 important players play 18 games then they are a shoe in for top 8. Richmonds list has very little depth IMO.

I agree we have lacked depth, but I think that is changing and we have deliberately used our rookie list to give us more depth if we get injuries.

Lets not forget it doesn't matter whether Carlton beat Richmond in the finals last year or not, over the season they were a long way behind Richmond and most of the other final eight teams, and with the injury to Judd and their aging list it is hard to see how they can catch up with the teams that won enough games last year too make the eight.

On last years form it will be teams like North, that weren't quite good enough, that will be relying on Carlton to slip if they hope to make it to the finals themselves.

 

[Tiger2709]

Not concerned in the slightest. Just knew he was taking a cheap shot and wanted to call him on it.

Way too many teams fighting for the 8 this year. I've also seen that losing a couple of close ones and losing confidence can derail a finals worthy team.

I would put $50 on North to make the 8 but not $500 if that makes sense.

I'm a long time Richmond supporter so it makes perfect sense, thankfully I'm not really a gambler otherwise the last 30 years of let downs would have sent me to the poor house.

 

[West Coast 06]

Interesting almost everyone has West Coast not making the eight. I haven't been this excited about a preseason for years!

As long as we don't get injuries like last year, I definitely think we will be in the eight. Having Nic Nat, Shuey, Hurn and Wellingham play a full season uninjured will do wonders. Cannot wait to see the new game plan unfold either.

Having Dermie forecast our demise makes me feel even better about things.

GWS, Saints, Melbourne and Doggies don't have a chance, everyone else is in it IMO.

 

[Andre]

Might even work in the favour of clubs who are forced to rotate much less than 2013, if their midfielders are resting forward effectively.

The rotation cap will have an effect, but not a huge one this year at 120 (more in reality with the quarter / sub changes). Teams that have midfielders who are reasonable small forwards or small forwards that are also decent burst midfielders will benefit most. Teams most disadvantaged are those with small forwards that are shit midfielders. Ie. you'd want a Wingard / Robbie Gray rather than a pigeon hole small forward like Eddie Betts. The cap should also marginally advantage teams with good fitness. As teams with good fitness and good midfielders have tended to be the better ones anyway if anything the cap could widen the gap between the best and worst teams. Whether it will only a few rounds will tell, but given the AFL's obsession with equalisation, if it makes things worse I'll be laughing.

 

[raskolnikov]

Not concerned in the slightest. Just knew he was taking a cheap shot and wanted to call him on it.

Way too many teams fighting for the 8 this year. I've also seen that losing a couple of close ones and losing confidence can derail a finals worthy team.

I would put $50 on North to make the 8 but not $500 if that makes sense.

Just because I don't rate your team doesn't mean I'm taking a cheap shot. At least five people in this thread have listed Essendon as certainties. I'm not having a tantrum about it. I'm happy for us to prove them wrong.

 

[Tas]

Just because I don't rate your team doesn't mean I'm taking a cheap shot. At least five people in this thread have listed Essendon as certainties. I'm not having a tantrum about it. I'm happy for us to prove them wrong.

I think he is just wants you to admit you do not know the difference between unlikely or definitely.

 

[Gameova_]

Essendon

 

[raskolnikov]

I think he is just wants you to admit you do not know the difference between unlikely or definitely.

I think with Brad Scott at the helm you are definites. Yes you made it in 2012 with Scott but there was a lack of competition that year. This year I can see up to 12 teams competing for the 8 and I think you will miss out.