Opinion The Hawkins Thread

[Nankervis brothers]

Re: What now for Hawkins?

You are correct.

I guess the question that follows though is that will this be to the detriment of Hawkins? Would Hawkins better off at another club, for instance?

I'm pretty sure we still want him to be here and to develop his game in a way that still benefits that team. I guess we'll find out. I'd hate to look back at his career and see it as a waste of talent because we didn't give him the right opportunities though.

Yes, at his stage he probably would. Although it would depend on the team, its game plan and its level of development. He would have had more opportunities in a younger team, and he would not be a third or even fourth option when the ball is coming into the forward line. Obviously a less cluttered forward line with more predictable entry would help him too. In other words, he would be having a better time of it at a club like Melbourne, maybe even Collingwood.

But i am not sure the situation he is in with the Cats is to his detriment. Its just a harder apprenticeship. And its an apprenticeship for a different role than the one many GFC fans and people in the football community were expecting. Many were expecting a Lockett MarkII, but the clubs more realistic aim seems to be developing a replacement for Mooney when he retires at the end of next season. Or at least that is how i see it.

 

[Fuzzyash]

Re: What now for Hawkins?

In the short-term the question is really going to be whether the coaching staff want two talls in the forward line as their structure. If so, Hawkins can't be dropped because there is nobody else to do the job. Mumford or Taylor could fill in but they have other duties to perform.

Dropping Hawkins now would be not just a change in personnel but also a change in structure.

 

[andrewb]

Re: What now for Hawkins?

Hey guys, couple of things from a bombers perspective on this one:

1. When Hawkins was 18 you guys played him against us and he shrugged a McPhee tackle like there was noone there. This kid has ALL the tools.

2. I can't think of any key forwards from 2006-2008 drafts who have done more than Hawkins at this stage. I am almost certain that he'll come good... he's just suffering from overblown expectations.

3. Tayte Pears has either matched or beaten most of the better forwards in the comp so far this year. He's been a big reason we've won 5 this year despite getting a combined 25 out of 50 games from Lloyd, Lucas, Fletcher, Hille and McVeigh. Has been in top nick.

4. Only cost you a third rounder... reasonable return on investment so far?

It's not like you're losing because he's in the team... keep investing games into this young bloke and you'll reap the rewards in years to come! I'd be stoked if we had have been able to get 40 odd games into Scott Gumbleton by now .

Hopefully in a few years we'll be able to see some ripping games with those two playing at opposite ends of the ground.

Congrats on the win... we're a year or two off challenging you guys yet.

 

[Hencho]

Re: What now for Hawkins?

Hey Cats fans...just to reinterate the point above...don't judge him too harshly on todays performance. He played on a kid (Pears) who many Essendon supporters rate through the roof (as do I). He has poise, is great at reading the play and spoils like a champ. Make no mistake...Hawkins received our best defender yesterday and the kid can seriously play. We picked him up at pick 23 when he was 17 so if he'd played another year of TAC cup he would have gone top 10 comfortably the following year.

Hawkins will come good, just needs time and given you are pumping teams on a regular basis he is worth "carrying" for many weeks.

Essendon did it with Neagle and he used to be useless after half time due to fitness and but yesterday i actually saw him chasing after blokes in the second half and offering long leads! Never thought I'd see that!

 

[Just do something]

Re: What now for Hawkins?

In the short-term the question is really going to be whether the coaching staff want two talls in the forward line as their structure. If so, Hawkins can't be dropped because there is nobody else to do the job. Mumford or Taylor could fill in but they have other duties to perform.

Dropping Hawkins now would be not just a change in personnel but also a change in structure.

As a reply to the bold Ken Hinkly on aw i think on the weekend said that they will alwys play 2 talls in the forward line this what they like to do.

Tommys time will come this year when we need him the most i reckon.

 

[The rabbi]

Re: What now for Hawkins?

If the kid continues to work hard they should keep playing him.

Hawkins also frees up Sj and Mooney to do their own damage.

Lonergan, should he be fit, may get a game in the backline.

 

[SJ]

Re: What now for Hawkins?

Hey guys, couple of things from a bombers perspective on this one:

1. When Hawkins was 18 you guys played him against us and he shrugged a McPhee tackle like there was noone there. This kid has ALL the tools.

2. I can't think of any key forwards from 2006-2008 drafts who have done more than Hawkins at this stage. I am almost certain that he'll come good... he's just suffering from overblown expectations.

3. Tayte Pears has either matched or beaten most of the better forwards in the comp so far this year. He's been a big reason we've won 5 this year despite getting a combined 25 out of 50 games from Lloyd, Lucas, Fletcher, Hille and McVeigh. Has been in top nick.

4. Only cost you a third rounder... reasonable return on investment so far?

It's not like you're losing because he's in the team... keep investing games into this young bloke and you'll reap the rewards in years to come! I'd be stoked if we had have been able to get 40 odd games into Scott Gumbleton by now .

Hopefully in a few years we'll be able to see some ripping games with those two playing at opposite ends of the ground.

Congrats on the win... we're a year or two off challenging you guys yet.

Very sensible and thoughtful post mate, thanks and good luck for the rest of your season.

 

[barmy44]

Re: What now for Hawkins?

yeah, very good post. couldnt find the original to quote it, but a good perspective on hawkins from someone who doesnt follow geelong. i think he will be very, very good, and what a great time to be playing him

 

[Footy_Fan2007]

Re: What now for Hawkins?

Why is everyone saying we have no one else to play except hawkins? Ryan Gamble??? IMO is a great player who actually leads for the ball, can mark and kick. Give hawkins a go in the 2's and give gamble another crack. (not sure if he just had concussion last week or what??)
If he is still injuried then yeah we don't really have another choice.

Even Bomber hasnt been impressed with hawkins for the past 2 games and said if he doesn't kick goals he will be dropped.

 

[a.f.k.a.y.o.p.]

Re: What now for Hawkins?

My two cents - Hawkins takes at least the best or second best defender every week. He is only 20. This means the third best is on stevie J - anyone wonder why he is carving games apart? He is getting the third best defender, because if hawkins gets the third best he will out mark them all day so oppostion teams cant afford to do it. Havng Hawk and Mooney is perfect for us with Sj there, and if they change this i will eat my damn hat........

 

[DanA]

Re: What now for Hawkins?

Why is everyone saying we have no one else to play except hawkins? Ryan Gamble??? IMO is a great player who actually leads for the ball, can mark and kick. Give hawkins a go in the 2's and give gamble another crack. (not sure if he just had concussion last week or what??)
If he is still injuried then yeah we don't really have another choice.

Even Bomber hasnt been impressed with hawkins for the past 2 games and said if he doesn't kick goals he will be dropped.

You can't build your attack around a 6' lead up player. Hawkins has to be given every opportunity because you don't get too many chances at a guy with his attributes and Mooney has practically said he's going to the goldcoast.

 

[AM]

Re: What now for Hawkins?

Get off his back! It's the first season he's had an injury free start. He's still learning the caper but has the potential to be top forward. Have some patience.

As for Gamble, he's not big enough to be a key forward and is only ever going to be a useful player, imho.

 

[Renegade]

Re: What now for Hawkins?

Ugh are you for real? What a shameful pathetic post.

So you're excited about Hawkins performances lately?

 

[chapmanmagic35]

Re: What now for Hawkins?

What's with all the negativity re: Lonergan? I'm not saying he should play ahead of Hawkins or not, but I thought he did a pretty good job last year & probably deserves a bit more respect than what he's been given.

 

[The Casey Cat]

Re: What now for Hawkins?

So you're excited about Hawkins performances lately?

Two games he was not great in. Big bloody deal. He is 20! Has not played 30 games yet. And despite our dominance we do not deliver the ball well to him on the lead or kick well long to him and don't look to play through him, we just don't attack that way.

He has much to improve on but calling him a dud and bombers boy is pretty ordinary. How old was Cam Mooney before he had mastered how to play forward for us?

 

[soupofficial]

Re: What now for Hawkins?

While you're all very happy about the non-Geelong opinion at the top of this page that was flattering to him, it's obvious that there are two sides to the story.

Hawkins can't currently get a game anywhere other than full forward, so his primary job is to kick goals. His first season (aged 18 years) yielded 12 goals from 9 games. His second season (aged 19 years) yielded 13 goals from 10 games, which is effectively a small decline in goals per game. His third season (aged 20 years) has so far been 12 goals from 9 games - back to par with year one (1.3 goals per game).

He has had injuries, but has been available for selection for the majority of games since his senior debut in round 2, 2007. His fitness has improved somewhat, and his possessions per game increased from year one to year two, but he's actually had 3 fewer shots at goal in 2009 than he did in the same number of games in 2007.

Considering that his role in the side hasn't really changed, he has stagnated on his key metric. He's still not 21 for another two months, but it's size and strength that typically means that KPPs take a while to come good. A number of beefy and talented key forwards from the modern era exist for us to benchmark against.

Jonathan Brown had played CHF every week in a two premiership sides at age 20, averaging about 1.3 goals a week over that period.
Jarryd Roughead took longer to get going, but when he was twenty and a half, he was averaging 2.5 goals per game at full forward.
Matthew Lloyd kicked 70 goals in a season aged 20.
Barry Hall hadn't yet fired. He was splitting his time between the backline and the forward line at age 20, and averaging a goal per game.
Brendan Fevola hadn't yet fired, but averaged about 1.8 goals per game aged 20.
Warren Tredrea averaged 2 goals per game at age 20.
Matthew Pavlich appeared to be playing further up the ground at age 20 - while he was only averaging half a goal per game, he was getting 19 possessions per week, including 29 and 28 in the final two games of the season when he was a few weeks younger than Hawkins is now.
Lance Franklin averaged 3.3 goals per game at CHF.
Nick Riewoldt was still a season away from firing, averaging 1.4 goals and 14 possessions per game at CHF.
Daniel Bradshaw missed the entire season aged 20, and returned the following year to average 3 goals per game.
Cameron Mooney was still borderline AFL, and didn't have a strong goalkicking season until he was in his mid 20s.


So that's pretty thorough and unbiased - a fairly complete sample of the dominant goalkicking KPPs in the league today. Not every player had an ideal start to their careers in terms of injury, position, or form, but almost without exception, they were playing key goalkicking roles for their team by the time they turned 21. This is not to say that Hawkins can't or won't come good, but most other players that did come good had shown more than Hawkins by now.

 

[Nankervis brothers]

Re: What now for Hawkins?

While you're all very happy about the non-Geelong opinion at the top of this page that was flattering to him, it's obvious that there are two sides to the story.

Hawkins can't currently get a game anywhere other than full forward, so his primary job is to kick goals. His first season (aged 18 years) yielded 12 goals from 9 games. His second season (aged 19 years) yielded 13 goals from 10 games, which is effectively a small decline in goals per game. His third season (aged 20 years) has so far been 12 goals from 9 games - back to par with year one (1.3 goals per game).

He has had injuries, but has been available for selection for the majority of games since his senior debut in round 2, 2007. His fitness has improved somewhat, and his possessions per game increased from year one to year two, but he's actually had 3 fewer shots at goal in 2009 than he did in the same number of games in 2007.

Considering that his role in the side hasn't really changed, he has stagnated on his key metric. He's still not 21 for another two months, but it's size and strength that typically means that KPPs take a while to come good. A number of beefy and talented key forwards from the modern era exist for us to benchmark against.

Jonathan Brown had played CHF every week in a two premiership sides at age 20, averaging about 1.3 goals a week over that period.
Jarryd Roughead took longer to get going, but when he was twenty and a half, he was averaging 2.5 goals per game at full forward.
Matthew Lloyd kicked 70 goals in a season aged 20.
Barry Hall hadn't yet fired. He was splitting his time between the backline and the forward line at age 20, and averaging a goal per game.
Brendan Fevola hadn't yet fired, but averaged about 1.8 goals per game aged 20.
Warren Tredrea averaged 2 goals per game at age 20.
Matthew Pavlich appeared to be playing further up the ground at age 20 - while he was only averaging half a goal per game, he was getting 19 possessions per week, including 29 and 28 in the final two games of the season when he was a few weeks younger than Hawkins is now.
Lance Franklin averaged 3.3 goals per game at CHF.
Nick Riewoldt was still a season away from firing, averaging 1.4 goals and 14 possessions per game at CHF.
Daniel Bradshaw missed the entire season aged 20, and returned the following year to average 3 goals per game.
Cameron Mooney was still borderline AFL, and didn't have a strong goalkicking season until he was in his mid 20s.


So that's pretty thorough and unbiased - a fairly complete sample of the dominant goalkicking KPPs in the league today. Not every player had an ideal start to their careers in terms of injury, position, or form, but almost without exception, they were playing key goalkicking roles for their team by the time they turned 21. This is not to say that Hawkins can't or won't come good, but most other players that did come good had shown more than Hawkins by now.

Not too sure how unbiased it is.

Hawkins has played 28 games for 37 goals and has managed 11.1 possessions a match.

Franklin at 28 games had 35 goals, and after 60 more matches than Hawkins averages only a marginally better 12.9 possessions a match.

Whether Hawkins "clicks" in the way Franklin eventually did remains to be seen. But at this stage of Hawkins career he actually has the wood on Franklin.

 

[soupofficial]

Re: What now for Hawkins?

Not too sure how unbiased it is.

Hawkins has played 28 games for 37 goals and has managed 11.1 possessions a match.

Franklin at 28 games had 35 goals, and after 60 more matches than Hawkins averages only a marginally better 12.9 possessions a match.

Whether Hawkins "clicks" in the way Franklin eventually did remains to be seen. But at this stage of Hawkins career he actually has the wood on Franklin.

It's pretty obvious that I've standardised each player to Tom Hawkins' age, whether it flatters them (in Lloyd's, Franklin's, and Brown's case) or not (in Riewoldt's, Fevola's, and perhaps Pavlich's case). What you've done, is picked a player from my thorough list who compared favourably, and then tried to nullify it by applying a completely different metric in a one-off manner. Doing that and then implying that I'm biased is mystifying, because my comparison wasn't focused on Hawthorn any more than it was on a team like Brisbane that also has two spearheads.

To respond to your point, the flaw in your metric is that Franklin stepped up and grabbed the vacancy in Hawthorn's forward line at a much younger age and earlier developmental stage than Hawkins has for Geelong's vacancy. If the shoe was on the other foot and I was comparing a 23 year old Tony Modra against a 21 year old Hawkins, you'd be screaming bloody murder (incidentally, Modra kicked 142 goals in his first 28 games, compared with 37 for Hawkins). By the time Franklin was Hawkins' age, he'd played double the amount of games (56 to 28), finished third for the Coleman Medal, and was learning his craft in the seniors instead of being shunted into the VFL by a bloke like Tim Boyle (Hawthorn's Tom Lonergan equivalent). Not that it was the main point of my original post, but how on earth can you argue that Hawkins has done more to that point in his career than Franklin?

Do you reckon blokes like Dalziell and Muston would have 30+ possessions on debut if they were 18 instead of 22? Overwhelmingly likely that they wouldn't have. Injured or not (3 recos in Muston's case), the extra years of maturation and training in an open age football system makes a world of difference to a player's conditioning, decision making, power, and football knowledge. Hawkins' change in physique since 2007 is testament to that.

I tried to write an objective and non-insulting analysis of the player mentioned in the thread title, and did some research so that I could support it with facts, and compare the stats with other well known players from many different clubs. If you want to bend it into a tit for tat between Hawthorn and Geelong, then that's a shame.

 

[Rellik666]

Re: What now for Hawkins?

I like Hawkin's it is just a shame he seems to lay off whenever he can and take the shot, sometimes this is for the good of the side but unfortunately mostly it is not. He does play well and get some good marks, but I feel he needs to have those kicks at goal and build his confidence.

He has made some bad choices and some good ones but needs to take some responsibility and not always look for a way out. But I would keep him in whilst we have someone else to take the slack.

As for the Coleman.....Stevie J is only 2 goals behind the leader, Franklin....why is it not possible for Stevie to go all the way?

 

[DanA]

Re: What now for Hawkins?

While you're all very happy about the non-Geelong opinion at the top of this page that was flattering to him, it's obvious that there are two sides to the story.

Hawkins can't currently get a game anywhere other than full forward, so his primary job is to kick goals. His first season (aged 18 years) yielded 12 goals from 9 games. His second season (aged 19 years) yielded 13 goals from 10 games, which is effectively a small decline in goals per game. His third season (aged 20 years) has so far been 12 goals from 9 games - back to par with year one (1.3 goals per game).

Actually Hawkins primary job is to make positive contribution to the side. I agree that as a full forward goals are an important metric but they are not the only metric. You can look at one statistic and say he's stagnating, I'll look at every single game he's played (most of them live) and tell you that you're wrong.

 

[vinum coupe]

Re: What now for Hawkins?

It's fair what you wrote soupy.

Cats supporters (mostly) are probably a bit more patient with Hawkins because of a couple of factors.

1/ We keep winning. Nathan Ablett got a free ride through 07, but we all knew it would bear fruit eventually. ( we never got the chance to see it obviously)

2/ Hawkins is improving in other areas. Yes we want him to kick goals but if we see him working hard to contribute then we will wait a little longer.
Tackles - (07) 1 per game - (08) 1.5 per game - (09) 2.4 per game
Marks - (07) 3.7 per game - (08) 5.1 per game - (09) 5.7 per game
Disposals - (07) 8.6 per game - (08) 11.9 per game - (09) 12.7 per game

Not great stats. But they are all improving.

I don't think anyone will really crack the shits with him until 2010 to be honest. We're all waiting for him to kick a grouping of goals.

 

[polly63]

Re: What now for Hawkins?

While you're all very happy about the non-Geelong opinion at the top of this page that was flattering to him, it's obvious that there are two sides to the story.

Hawkins can't currently get a game anywhere other than full forward, so his primary job is to kick goals. His first season (aged 18 years) yielded 12 goals from 9 games. His second season (aged 19 years) yielded 13 goals from 10 games, which is effectively a small decline in goals per game. His third season (aged 20 years) has so far been 12 goals from 9 games - back to par with year one (1.3 goals per game).

He has had injuries, but has been available for selection for the majority of games since his senior debut in round 2, 2007. His fitness has improved somewhat, and his possessions per game increased from year one to year two, but he's actually had 3 fewer shots at goal in 2009 than he did in the same number of games in 2007.

Considering that his role in the side hasn't really changed, he has stagnated on his key metric. He's still not 21 for another two months, but it's size and strength that typically means that KPPs take a while to come good. A number of beefy and talented key forwards from the modern era exist for us to benchmark against.

Jonathan Brown had played CHF every week in a two premiership sides at age 20, averaging about 1.3 goals a week over that period.
Jarryd Roughead took longer to get going, but when he was twenty and a half, he was averaging 2.5 goals per game at full forward.
Matthew Lloyd kicked 70 goals in a season aged 20.
Barry Hall hadn't yet fired. He was splitting his time between the backline and the forward line at age 20, and averaging a goal per game.
Brendan Fevola hadn't yet fired, but averaged about 1.8 goals per game aged 20.
Warren Tredrea averaged 2 goals per game at age 20.
Matthew Pavlich appeared to be playing further up the ground at age 20 - while he was only averaging half a goal per game, he was getting 19 possessions per week, including 29 and 28 in the final two games of the season when he was a few weeks younger than Hawkins is now.
Lance Franklin averaged 3.3 goals per game at CHF.
Nick Riewoldt was still a season away from firing, averaging 1.4 goals and 14 possessions per game at CHF.
Daniel Bradshaw missed the entire season aged 20, and returned the following year to average 3 goals per game.
Cameron Mooney was still borderline AFL, and didn't have a strong goalkicking season until he was in his mid 20s.


So that's pretty thorough and unbiased - a fairly complete sample of the dominant goalkicking KPPs in the league today. Not every player had an ideal start to their careers in terms of injury, position, or form, but almost without exception, they were playing key goalkicking roles for their team by the time they turned 21. This is not to say that Hawkins can't or won't come good, but most other players that did come good had shown more than Hawkins by now.

Interesting, but unfortunately it fails the simplest analysis test, ie the way Geelong plays the game is TOTALLY different to how the other sides have played in the past. No focus on one or two key forwards here - usually the player in the best position gets the ball and kicks the goal. Forwards, including Hawkins, know that 'goal assists', ie doing the team thing, is FAR more important than actually racking up a tally (which is also important). Do an analysis of the number of goalkickers each team had when these players were learning their trades. Geelong will be light years ahead of the others.

I'm happy with Hawk's progress to date. Shows maturity and skill beyond his experience, lacks some confidence at top level, needs to sort out the kciking for goal, but demands that opposition coaches play a good defender on him.

 

[TEDDY24INC]

Re: What now for Hawkins?

Another game, another piss poor performance by Bomber's boy. I'd rather have Lonners back playing there. Next week the same people will be making excuses for this dud.

F#%k off and go back to watching NBA you flog... our team is functioning fine, every1 is playing a role!!!

 

[Geelong_Sicko]

Re: What now for Hawkins?

Interesting, but unfortunately it fails the simplest analysis test, ie the way Geelong plays the game is TOTALLY different to how the other sides have played in the past. No focus on one or two key forwards here - usually the player in the best position gets the ball and kicks the goal.

Here is Reason. Here is Truth. We aren't playing the Blighty way of ruckman taps to rover who drills it straight to full forward. If we were the Geelong coaching staff would have sat Hawkins and the ruck & midfielders down and studied old matches from the early nineties.

We don't play that way.

The future will be different, though. As c0ze said in an earlier post, when our midfielders start slowing down that will be the time to start drilling it lace-out from the midfield to our leading forward. Our present forward setup is fairly unique, so I guess we've got to exploit the fact other teams are having difficulties with it.

 

[darren forssman]

Re: What now for Hawkins?

F#%k off and go back to watching NBA you flog... our team is functioning fine, every1 is playing a role!!!

dont worry, he is following josh to bali and then to europe....josh's drawstring needs pulling.