Opinion The Race for Pick #1 - It's ours (almost... again....)

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I was pissed last night when I commented in here. So going to clear it up a bit.

Just want to clear up that I’m by no means happy with the wooden spoon, but the reality is no team has had to endure what we did at the start of the year.

Fresh coach took over the s*** storm that was the Shaw fallout. Not to mention a COVID impacted season limiting a young teams ability to get match fit. He implemented a new high risk high reward game plan to an inexperienced team in a year where rules could be manipulated to score heavily. We couldn’t quite stand up physically when the heat came on. We also had an f-ton of injuries to key senior players.

As a result of all this we got too far behind the 8 ball, but what was most concerning was whether it was going to turn at all. Remember when they were questioning whether we were going to win a game? The flick switched and we’ve been competitive in every game since the bye.

Wooden spoon? Yeah a flimsy tag that doesn’t sound all that good when you say it out loud. Worst team in the comp? Hell no. It’s just a ladder position, that doesn’t accurately reflect anything other than the win-loss column.

And so what do we get from all of this? Jason Horne-Francis. I said generational, and yes maybe that’s a bit too much pressure, but his highlight reel is mind boggling. His ability to impact SANFL League matches on a physical level at age 17 is crazy. It’s the best league in the country outside the AFL.

I honestly believe adding this sort of talent is a critical step toward our ultimate goal - a 5th flag.
 
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If people are worried about schoolyard level discussion of avoiding the spoon, I would say that not finishing top 4 for 14 years, and not winning a flag in over 20 is more to get discouraged about.

I don't think anyone here is actively barracking for us to lose. I wouldn't have had a second thought about pick 1 if we rolled them last night.

With that being said, I don't think there is anything wrong either with being relieved in having first dibs in the draft without any expansion club/*cheating/BS Father/Son compromised nonsense.

Like life you take the good with the bad, that's not being ignorant of where we are at, just optimistic that we are trending in the right direction. Which we are.
 
Those #2 picks you listed weren't taken after other clubs picked "their" father-son selections. Each draft is unique in the AFL, and this year if you didn't finish with the 1st pick, there's a whole lot of uncertainty.

But I digress.

For the past 20 years we have heard from around the AFL that NMFC were a team who "couldn't afford" to bottom out due to the supposed financial and PR ramifications that would come from tiny crowds. And what did that lead to? Since the end of the Carey-Pagan era we've made a handful of prelims but each and every one of those was generally considered a surprise, and in none of them did we eventually look close to a flag.

Instead, our identity for the last two decades has largely been of top ups and treading water, and it has simply not worked as a long-term strategy.

The fact that we have timed out first spoon in 40 years to coincide with pandemic lockdowns, no crowds, and guaranteed financial support from the AFL couldn't be more serendipitous.

We get all the tangible benefits that come with a bottom placed finish, with none of the short-term risks typically associated with it.

No one, including me, was actively 'cheering for NMFC to lose'. But there's a big difference with accepting reality and embracing it compared to clinging to meaningless pride.

This pretty much covers my thoughts to a tee. FWIW I didn't agree with the idea we couldn't afford to bottom out - but in the end it is irrelevant because that appears to have clouded decision making at times. My view is simple, we couldn't have timed being at the bottom any better and if we need to pull back from Hobart over the coming 5-10 years I also think that we couldn't time that any better from a team performance, style and financial POV.
 
I was pissed last night when I commented in here. So going to clear it up a bit.

Just want to clear up that I’m by no means happy with the wooden spoon, but the reality is no team has had to endure what we did at the start of the year.

Fresh coach took over the s*** storm that was the Shaw fallout. Not to mention a COVID impacted season limiting a young teams ability to get match fit. He implemented a new high risk high reward game plan to an inexperienced team in a year where rules could be manipulated to score heavily. We couldn’t quite stand up physically when the heat came on. We also had an f-ton of injuries to key senior players.

As a result of all this we got too far behind the 8 ball, but what was most concerning was whether it was going to turn at all. Remember when they were questioning whether we were going to win a game? The flick switched and we’ve been competitive in every game since the bye.

Wooden spoon? Yeah a flimsy tag that doesn’t sound all that good when you say it out loud. Worst team in the comp? Hell no. It’s just a ladder position, that doesn’t accurately reflect anything other than the win-loss column.

And so what do we get from all of this? Jason Horne-Francis. I said generational, and yes maybe that’s a bit too much pressure, but his highlight reel is mind boggling. His ability to impact SANFL League matches on a physical level at age 17 is crazy. It’s the best league in the country outside the AFL.

I honestly believe adding this sort of talent is a critical step toward our ultimate goal - a 5th flag.
Do you mean once in a generation, not generational? Generational just means he represents his generation. Thus he’s nothing special.

Can you point me to the last pick 1 that was once in a generation? Go back and look at the hype around all the pick 1’s. So far only Walsh is looking up to it. Rowell was great last year but injuries have brought him back to the pack so it’s a bit too early to say with him.

JHF looks the goods, but he’s no sure thing. He was poor yesterday when The Roosters gave him a hard tag and roughed him up when they could. Think he had 4 touches in the first qtr and 3 after that.
 
Those #2 picks you listed weren't taken after other clubs picked "their" father-son selections. Each draft is unique in the AFL, and this year if you didn't finish with the 1st pick, there's a whole lot of uncertainty.

But I digress.

For the past 20 years we have heard from around the AFL that NMFC were a team who "couldn't afford" to bottom out due to the supposed financial and PR ramifications that would come from tiny crowds. And what did that lead to? Since the end of the Carey-Pagan era we've made a handful of prelims but each and every one of those was generally considered a surprise, and in none of them did we eventually look close to a flag.

Instead, our identity for the last two decades has largely been of top ups and treading water, and it has simply not worked as a long-term strategy.

The fact that we have timed out first spoon in 40 years to coincide with pandemic lockdowns, no crowds, and guaranteed financial support from the AFL couldn't be more serendipitous.

We get all the tangible benefits that come with a bottom placed finish, with none of the short-term risks typically associated with it.

No one, including me, was actively 'cheering for NMFC to lose'. But there's a big difference with accepting reality and embracing it compared to clinging to meaningless pride.
I agree with lots of what you are saying. But we can all read, and you did actively jump into this thread during the game to actively cheer for an incident that set our team back and towards a loss. Also, pride is not meaningless.

I have so often recalled the 2005 double cobra victory against the Pies, thinking how good it felt to steal that game and how horrible their supporters felt on the day, but then that it helped deliver them the Thomas/Pendlebury double, which in turn helped a lot to deliver their sustained run near the top and their 2010 flag. With no priority pick we can’t expect that kindof immediate impact, but I really hope in years to come we will look back and reconcile how letting these games against Richmond and Sydney slip, and letting the Giants back in for a draw, resulted in a benefit from the 2021 draft that has been more than worth the temporary pain.

But I 100% do not believe that is a judgement anyone can make now. No kid who hasn’t played yet can be guaranteed to be worth more to a club and a developing list than the confidence and pride that comes with winning against good opposition. So cheering for and hoping for the draft pick over the wins is gross.

Anyway. Here we are, not as a cheerworthy strategy but because over 23 rounds we were the least successful club on game day. I’m optimistic because we can see so many reasons why this year went as it did, and we’ve seen so many signs post-bye that next year and the years after that do not have to go the same way. The system is designed to give us a leg up from here, soI hope we can make the best of it - and again, based on the last couple of years of drafting, I’m optimistic.
 

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Would we consider trading Pick 1 to Freo for Cerra and their Pick 1?

I wouldnt, but mainly because by he's the perfect replacement for Cunners. Not only that the timing would be perfect as we ramp up his midfield minutes and give Cunners more forward time.
 
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