Prediction The Run Home- The next six Games and beyond

[Optimistic Dog]

We would only need to beat one of those 4, if we win the ones you have outlined plus Adelaide in Adelaide.

Essentially if we win every game we start favourites in, we’ll make it. The issue is we have almost no wiggle room

Yes, silly me forgot about the crows game so 2 of 3 away games in the crows, cats and port that is a little more wriggle room.

 

[bobs head soup]

Betting agencies have us at $2.10 (slightly less than 50/50) for finals and $11 (or 9% chance) for top 4.

This feels about right. No doubt we're good enough to win the games required, the query is our ability to back up and play near our best week after week after week.

 

[The Inbetweener]

Betting agencies have us at $2.10 (slightly less than 50/50) for finals and $11 (or 9% chance) for top 4.

This feels about right. No doubt we're good enough to win the games required, the query is our ability to back up and play near our best week after week after week.

The good news is we get to play 3 teams in Port, GWS and Geelong, who’s spot we are literally trying to take. Going 3/3 there is massive to our chances, if we are good enough.

 

[Hoges64]

Yes, silly me forgot about the crows game so 2 of 3 away games in the crows, cats and port that is a little more wriggle room.

Wait, let me get this straight...

We play more games this year at the Adelaide Oval than we do at the MCG?

Wow.

 

[Optimistic Dog]

The dogs lot we always seem to be fighting for spots. 2021 it was top 4 and somehow we missed out losing our last 3. Most seasons it is a spot in 8, some how we lost to WCE at home last season and missed out. If the dogs are true to form they will keep us guessing right to the end.

 

[mattwa]

Jeez pinch 2 of the next 3 (tough ask I know) and we could legitimately finish top 4. The games against the cats and giants aren't as daunting as they were before and we would be favourites in those games on current form. This season is crazy

 

[JTCWBFC]

Jeez pinch 2 of the next 3 (tough ask I know) and we could legitimately finish top 4. The games against the cats and giants aren't as daunting as they were before and we would be favourites in those games on current form. This season is crazy

Not sure I’d have us favourite v the cats after How we played yesterday and our history against them

 

[X_box_X]

Essendon are so overrated. How on Earth did we get smashed by them?

We currently occupy 8th spot on the ladder and are the highest positioned team to have lost to the Bombers. All their wins apart from us have come against teams currently positioned outside the eight.

If you think that's not evidence of how overrated they are, their percentage of 98.9 is superior to only five teams.

Worst top four in the history of the 18 teams competition.

 

[Doggy]

Essendon are so overrated. How on Earth did we get smashed by them?

We currently occupy 8th spot on the ladder and are the highest positioned team to have lost to the Bombers. All their wins apart from us have come against teams currently positioned outside the eight.

If you think that's not evidence of how overrated they are, their percentage of 98.9 is superior to only five teams.

Worst top four in the history of the 18 teams competition.

Goal kicking ...

 

[dogwatch]

Essendon are so overrated. How on Earth did we get smashed by them?

We currently occupy 8th spot on the ladder and are the highest positioned team to have lost to the Bombers. All their wins apart from us have come against teams currently positioned outside the eight.

If you think that's not evidence of how overrated they are, their percentage of 98.9 is superior to only five teams.

Worst top four in the history of the 18 teams competition.

The ladder is full of quirks and distortions as you rightly point out. So it is not the best guide to form. But if you follow the money you get a better guide. The bookies have Essendon as 9th in the betting for the flag at $34. We are eighth at $26.

 

[X_box_X]

Speaking of following the ladder, I've done a ladder predictor based on all the favourites winning. A few games are up in the air as to who would start favourite.

I have us finishing with 13 wins (we will start underdogs against Sydney, Carlton and Geelong) which has either 8th or 9th.

Based solely on this ladder predictor, we finish 8th if Richmond beat GCS at the MCG in the final round. A GCS win would see them finish 8th. IMO, GCS will start favourite so it would be romantic to see Hardwick beat his former team to clinch the Suns' first finals birth.

Meanwhile we finish 9th yet again.

 

[CarnTheScray]

Essendon are so overrated. How on Earth did we get smashed by them?

We currently occupy 8th spot on the ladder and are the highest positioned team to have lost to the Bombers. All their wins apart from us have come against teams currently positioned outside the eight.

If you think that's not evidence of how overrated they are, their percentage of 98.9 is superior to only five teams.

Worst top four in the history of the 18 teams competition.

We actually played like Essendon on the day which is probably why we lost. Terrible efficiency going forward of centre. If Brad Scott was our coach he’d probably call that game a win.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

We actually played like Essendon on the day which is probably why we lost. Terrible efficiency going forward of centre. If Brad Scott was our coach he’d probably call that game a win.

Essendon also kicked unrealistically accurately (5.0 at QT, 8.2), which obviously we can't control once they take the shot. Kept them in the game for the periods that we were the better team.

Essendon have not only found a way to win their narrow games, but kick accurately in them too while being inaccurate in the games that don't matter. It's not exactly a sustainable way to demonstrate you're doing the controlled, repeatable things well that might lead to a flag.

 

[fred cook]

On the light side. How does it feel Scott Tracy to be a poor man's version of Virgil Tracy

 

[Doggy]

Speaking of following the ladder, I've done a ladder predictor based on all the favourites winning. A few games are up in the air as to who would start favourite.

I have us finishing with 13 wins (we will start underdogs against Sydney, Carlton and Geelong) which has either 8th or 9th.

Based solely on this ladder predictor, we finish 8th if Richmond beat GCS at the MCG in the final round. A GCS win would see them finish 8th. IMO, GCS will start favourite so it would be romantic to see Hardwick beat his former team to clinch the Suns' first finals birth.

Meanwhile we finish 9th yet again.

GC play 6 of their last 9 away from home. They have won none away from home and have been belted plenty of times.

 

[Next Waiting]

I think we'll get Sydney in Sydney. We'll both be off an 8 day break but we'll have an attritive cumulative advantage with the Swans being our 5th post bye game and us being the Swans 8th. The Swans game before us is Brisbane in Brisbane. Our game before is Geelong in Geelong.

5 games in I expect the JUH, Naughts and Darcy trio to be humming. Sydney's smaller ground might work to our advantage against them.

 

[fargy]

Run Home (Top 2 - 3rd to 13th - bottom 5)

Freo: (0-6-2)

Essendon: (1-5-2)

Geelong: (0-4-4)

Collingwood: (2-5-1)

Port: (2-4-2)

Brisbane: (1-4-3)

Dogs: (2-4-2)

Giants: (1-6-1)

Gold Coast: (0-5-3)

Demons: (0-7-1)

Hawks: (1-4-3)

Geelong & Brisbane were the big winners of the weekend. They have a good amount of bottom 5 teams remaining in their fixture, especially Geelong who avoid the top 2 and split the remaining between bottom 5 & middle 11. Collingwood and the Giants are under the pump. The winner/loser of next weeks game for us is huge. We have a very similar draw to Port.

It’s going to be an amazing finish to the season, each week there are so many ‘eight’ point games.

 

[X_box_X]

I enjoy having a challenging run to end the season.

Last year we had a p155 easy draw to end the season and we still missed out. Even if we had sneaked in, participating in finals would have been not very enjoyable, just like in 2022 when we sneaked in.

If we make finals from here, we will have deserved it and excitement levels will be sky high especially if we have close to a full team to choose from.

 

[hutchy31]

I enjoy having a challenging run to end the season.

Last year we had a p155 easy draw to end the season and we still missed out. Even if we had sneaked in, participating in finals would have been not very enjoyable, just like in 2022 when we sneaked in.

If we make finals from here, we will have deserved it and excitement levels will be sky high especially if we have close to a full team to choose from.

Completely agree. If we lose more than 3 games from the last 8 then it's unlikely we'd have made a dent in finals anyway. Finish strong and end up on 13 or 14 wins then we'll have played pretty well and will be threats to win maybe a final or two.

 

[JohnnySteel]

If we make it, it’ll mean we are in ripping form and a flag threat.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[A dog in Qld]

We’ll time capsule this prediction. Oh how amazing would it to beat Swan twice in finals? And I’d like to put the cats away in the preliminary more than the pies, just to bury some more historical trauma.

Would have nothing over eliminating the bombers in week 1 ... do our part in keeping their pathetic-ness in finals rolling on!

 

[F6Typhoon]

Would have nothing over eliminating the bombers in week 1 ... do our part in keeping their pathetic-ness in finals rolling on!

Fair bit of counting our chickens here?
Though I suppose with the current bird flu situation, it might be better to count them now before there’s none..

 

[House_of_Dahl]

If we make finals from here, we will have deserved it and excitement levels will be sky high especially if we have close to a full team to choose from.

Also means we need to win most games which puts Bont into a good place to storm home in the Brownlow

 

[Dogs 13]

Fair bit of counting our chickens here?
Though I suppose with the current bird flu situation, it might be better to count them now before there’s none..

Well that takes care of the Swans, Magpies, Hawks, Crows and Eagles then.

 

[dogwatch]

Well that takes care of the Swans, Magpies, Hawks, Crows and Eagles then.

Now we just need a bit of this for Geelong, Brisbane and Richmond:

Cat flu​

Just like us, cats can also get a type of flu (specific to cats – humans can’t catch cat flu and cats can’t catch human flu). It can cause a runny nose, sore eyes and in very extreme cases can be fatal.