Fixture The Run to Finals

[doug85]

Can’t wait to limp into the finals and get touched up to the tune of 15 goals by Carlton or something, while also missing out on a top 10 pick ahead of the Kako bid

If we make the finals, it means we’ve probably had 14.5 win season and in good form after beating Freo, Sydney and the lions in the last month of the season.

Not really limping in.

 

[JayJ20]

Unless Brisbane rest all of their players, which is unlikely now that there is a two week break before the finals, we ain't beating them in Brisbane. Need to beat Gold Coast and Sydney and then hope for other results.

Do we want to play finals though? We'll get thrashed and won't be any closer to winning a final. If we're no chance of beating Brisbane, then why even make finals?

I think we're beyond seeing a top 8 finish as an achievement when a thrashing will only have us tumbling down the ladder next year like always.

 

[I Remember Bluey]

Do we want to play finals though? We'll get thrashed and won't be any closer to winning a final. If we're no chance of beating Brisbane, then why even make finals?

I think we're beyond seeing a top 8 finish as an achievement when a thrashing will only have us tumbling down the ladder next year like always.

But how do you get finals experience, if you don't play in them??

 

[Beerfish]

Do we want to play finals though?

Yes.

 

[Nuggs Bunny]

What's the correlation of this thread being bumped during the week to winning on that weekend?

 

[ghostdog]

View attachment 2069001


Not only do we have to beat suns & sydney coming up, need a couple results going in our favour in order to make the 8

this is where I reckon we'll end up

If we qualify and Hawthorn qualify, at the expense of Carlton, the melts will be just so great. I'd rather Freo than Hawks though.

 

[ghostdog]

What is totally absurd is that if we had of turned up and beaten Melb, Ade and St Kilda - we would be top of the ladder

That is f***** nuts.

 

[JayJ20]

But how do you get finals experience, if you don't play in them??

Yes.

Carlton didn't make finals between 2013 and 2023 yet made it all the way to a prelim.
Bulldogs had an EF loss in 2015 and won a premiership the next year.

I don't think our list needs to experience an EF thrashing. We've had plenty of that and it hasn't brought us any closer.

The only time I'd want them to play finals is if it'll be a competitive final. Are we confident that we'll be competitive vs Port, GWS, Fremantle or Brisbane away in a final? Are we confident we'll be competitive vs Geelong or Bulldogs in a final? Because they are the likely opponents we'll face.

I'm not confident. I hoped we'd host a final for the first time since 2002 but we messed that up.

If we win all remaining games, then I'd be confident we're one of the top 8 best sides this year. If we beat Gold Coast and an out of form Sydney, then get thrashed by Brisbane, I'd prefer we miss out because we lose a couple of draft positions for an extra thrashing we'll get nothing out of.

 

[Beerfish]

we lose a couple of draft positions

The guys spoke about this on the pod last night. A couple of draft positions really amounts to 3/5 of **** all unless you're in the running for pick one. Give me the finals experience. Yes, even a thrashing. Should just make them burn more for success and get it through to them how much better they need to be.

I understand and respect your overall position. I just don't agree with it. I want them to play a competitive final too but you've got exactly 0 chance of that if you don't make the cut in the first place.

 

[Mercurial89]

The guys spoke about this on the pod last night. A couple of draft positions really amounts to 3/5 of **** all unless you're in the running for pick one. Give me the finals experience. Yes, even a thrashing. Should just make them burn more for success and get it through to them how much better they need to be.

I understand and respect your overall position. I just don't agree with it. I want them to play a competitive final too but you've got exactly 0 chance of that if you don't make the cut in the first place.

I think that's pretty valid, my only concern is making it at getting thrashed, with a team that has been accused of being comfortable just being AFL footballers, what kind of reaction do you get?

 

[P Money]

The guys spoke about this on the pod last night. A couple of draft positions really amounts to 3/5 of **** all unless you're in the running for pick one. Give me the finals experience. Yes, even a thrashing. Should just make them burn more for success and get it through to them how much better they need to be.

I understand and respect your overall position. I just don't agree with it. I want them to play a competitive final too but you've got exactly 0 chance of that if you don't make the cut in the first place.

Its hard to say. I genuinely think the players are psychologically scarred from being thrashed and embarrassed in finals. I think it has contributed to their mental fragility and a loser mentality. I think they'd go into a final scared of being belted off the park just like the fans are whenever we watch them play a final, and I totally understand what Scott means when he says it can do more harm than good to make finals when you're not ready.

I liken it to a new draftee. Bringing them into the AFL when they're not ready can smash their confidence - sometimes it's better to let them play at the lower level, really build their capability and come into the AFL ready and raring to compete.

I totally agree that you have to be in it to win it and you can't compete if you don't make it, but maybe the team is better off plugging away and building at the 'lower level' (aka H&A season) for a couple of years and play finals when they are genuinely ready to impact. I don't want the next generation of young bombers (the likes of Caldwell, Durham, Roberts, Perkins, Cox, Jones etc) carrying the same trauma and mental fragility as their predecessors - they have to break the cycle

 

[Beerfish]

I think that's pretty valid, my only concern is making it at getting thrashed, with a team that has been accused of being comfortable just being AFL footballers, what kind of reaction do you get?

The right one or you start swinging the axe. Which is basically what Scott said last year when he made that comment about players who are just happy being an afl player and living the lifestyle.

Afaic you can't hope you don't get a chance to succeed because you might fail miserably. You need to see where you are. Who you can count on and who you can't.

 

[Beerfish]

I don't want the next generation of young bombers (the likes of Caldwell, Durham, Roberts, Perkins, Cox, Jones etc) carrying the same trauma and mental fragility as their predecessors - they have to break the cycle

Pretty sure the bolded played in the last thrashing in Tassie?

As I said before I understand what you're saying I just don't agree. They won't ever break the cycle by avoiding it.

I mean all this is most likely moot anyway because I don't see us making it. I've said more than once I think our season was cactus as soon as we lost to Geelong. We should absolutely have won that if we were in any way serious and they absolutely choked it.

 

[JayJ20]

The guys spoke about this on the pod last night. A couple of draft positions really amounts to 3/5 of **** all unless you're in the running for pick one. Give me the finals experience. Yes, even a thrashing. Should just make them burn more for success and get it through to them how much better they need to be.

I understand and respect your overall position. I just don't agree with it. I want them to play a competitive final too but you've got exactly 0 chance of that if you don't make the cut in the first place.

Fair enough. In the past we got thrashed and then tumbled down the ladder the following year because it broke the playing group somewhat. I'm just sick of being the worst team in the top 8 and the game being over by HT every time we qualify.

Unfortunately I also don't see a team we can compete with in September. If we were guaranteed to play Collingwood or Carlton, then I'd be for it because I believe we can compete with them. But those interstate sides away + Bulldogs/Geelong are nightmare match ups for us.

 

[Beerfish]

Fair enough. In the past we got thrashed and then tumbled down the ladder the following year because it broke the playing group somewhat.

Yeah well they need to htfu then or piss off and let someone who wants to win have a crack.

I'm just sick of being the worst team in the top 8 and the game being over by HT every time we qualify.

Yep. So am I. So is everyone.

Unfortunately I also don't see a team we can compete with in September. If we were guaranteed to play Collingwood or Carlton, then I'd be for it because I believe we can compete with them. But those interstate sides away + Bulldogs/Geelong are nightmare match ups for us.

Things don't happen in a vacuum though. Maybe the other team has injuries. Maybe the weather suits us. Maybe we get a bulldogs like ride from the umpires. Maybe the opposition is just a little off that day/night. You just never know. What we do know though is that we absolutely won't win a final if we don't make the cut. Once you're there, anything is possible.

 

[JayJ20]

My thoughts about making finals aside, the best scenario for us to make finals with 1 loss:

Essendon beats Gold Coast and Sydney, loses to Brisbane

Hawthorn must lose to Carlton because they aren't losing to Richmond or North. Carlton also has West Coast and St Kilda to finish so they're unlikely to miss finals.

Fremantle must lose all 3 games to Geelong, GWS and Port. The latter two is a real chance, but losing to Geelong this week is crucial.

Those two things happen and Essendon make finals playing Carlton in the EF. This is the ideal scenario.

Assuming GWS lose to Brisbane this week, we'll basically be barracking for the loser of GWS vs Fremantle to lose their game against Bulldogs and Port respectively.

 

[ant555]

Do we want to play finals though? We'll get thrashed and won't be any closer to winning a final. If we're no chance of beating Brisbane, then why even make finals?

I think we're beyond seeing a top 8 finish as an achievement when a thrashing will only have us tumbling down the ladder next year like always.

Maybe someone can give them Covid

 

[JayJ20]

My thoughts about making finals aside, the best scenario for us to make finals with 1 loss:

Essendon beats Gold Coast and Sydney, loses to Brisbane

Hawthorn must lose to Carlton because they aren't losing to Richmond or North. Carlton also has West Coast and St Kilda to finish so they're unlikely to miss finals.

Fremantle must lose all 3 games to Geelong, GWS and Port. The latter two is a real chance, but losing to Geelong this week is crucial.

Those two things happen and Essendon make finals playing Carlton in the EF. This is the ideal scenario.

Assuming GWS lose to Brisbane this week, we'll basically be barracking for the loser of GWS vs Fremantle to lose their game against Bulldogs and Port respectively.

For Beerfish and others that want us making finals:

TLDR - We need one of GWS (Brisbane away, Fremantle at home, Bulldogs away) or Fremantle (Geelong at home, GWS away, Port at home) to lose all their games AND Hawthorn losing to Carlton to make finals if we win two more games and lose to Brisbane.
If we win all remaining games, then we're in unless Fremantle and Bulldogs win all of their games and GWS beats Brisbane and Fremantle, but lose to Bulldogs.

Carlton, Geelong, Port and Bulldogs have easy games to come so they pretty much made it. So we'd need them to win any matches they have against Hawthorn, GWS and Fremantle.

So Geelong beating Fremantle, Brisbane beating GWS at home and Carlton beating Hawthorn are the crucial results this week. If those results happen, the rest is up to us really.

 

[Beerfish]

I'm not really interested in the different scenarios because I still maintain our season was done after the Geelong loss. That was the gutting one for me. Not the Melbourne, Adelaide or St Kilda losses. I didn't even feel those and the two wins were meh too little too late. Hope I'm wrong but yeah.. expectations are very low.

 

[TheGreatBarryB]

Crows loss was the killer...should have held on.

 

[Mercurial89]

Crows loss was the killer...should have held on.

The game should never have looked how it looked.
Just a total breakdown in any defensive system. That was the more worrying thing than the actual loss.

 

[yodellinhank]

Maybe someone can give them Covid

I know just the guy, to be sure

 

[div12ressie]

This year is completely different compared to a lot of others as every team from 1-10 is highly competitive. If do we make the 8 it's not us limping as we would of had to beaten gc, sydney and brisbane(away).

 

[ghostdog]

If we don't make finals, I'm blaming the premature thread title.

 

[Blind Turn]

Oh my fellow Bomber diehards. The season is not yet over.

The premiership is still there for the taking. If WC at home and the Saints can beat Carlton and we win our last 2 games to a suspect Sydney and Brisbane we can still make finals and maybe even a revenge elim final at home against the WB where we can smash that little knee-bender Weightman. Then they can watch us do a 2016 on the rest of the comp.

It will be so beautiful to behold.