The war against renewable energy

[SaintsSeptember]

The amount of solar production that is lost due to the grid not being able to use it is massive…
A simple example is my system … due to my battery being charged and export limits, my inverters have to scale down because the grid can’t take it.

There is probably 30kwh lost.

View attachment 2181961


Finding industries that can use excess solar will be exciting.
Desal plants can be turned on an off fairly easily, they could be using extremely cheap excess solar to produce fresh water, opening up more cheap agriculture… and helping during droughts.

Obviously the more EVs and using dynamic inverters etc… to charge up cars when there is excess power has massive potential.
Charging your car on sunny days should, and will be cheaper than cloudy days as an example.

Yeah i believe in the make hay while the sun shines system, and desalination is a good example.
At the moment i think the Melbourne desal plant purchase green energy , which is garbage. It means they can run it in the night and pretend to be using solar energy generated during the day. ( The carbon is simply blamed on those who didn't buy green energy ).

 

[PiCkLeJuiCe]

1. Firstly renewables make the grid more reliable… see SA blackouts since they got their battery.
2. Yes there will be a cost to run gas. But I’d hope, as we move forward, technologies will improve and the need for gas will be nil past 2035.
EVs connected to the grid can easily rid the need for Gas as an example.

Whoa there. Batteries aren't renewables. Just because they are linked to renewable energy, it doesn't make them renewable. We can attach batteries to any power generation source to soak up excess supply. True renewables by their very nature are less reliable.

 

[nut]

Batteries aren't renewables

Well they are over 90% recyclable… in my book that’s renewable.
Next myth please.

Also any cost these days for renewables usually includes Storage.. the term used is FIRM Renewables.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Whoa there. Batteries aren't renewables. Just because they are linked to renewable energy, it doesn't make them renewable. We can attach batteries to any power generation source to soak up excess supply. True renewables by their very nature are less reliable.

And amazingly, also after the blackouts they bought these.

GE wins South Australia tender for back-up generators

GE wins tender for back-up generator, and will install mobile units using diesel this summer, before turning them into longer-term gas-fired units.

reneweconomy.com.au

But they aren't renewable so surely would not have had something to do with the lack of blackouts.

Over the last few years S.A. have gone backwards on the amount of renewable energy in their mix, and their use of the interstate connection has seen mostly one way purchasing from Victoria, and increasing.

Now they are buying this.
https://reneweconomy.com.au/south-a...00-pct-hydrogen-capable-turbines-for-whyalla/

If they actually run it on Hydrogen, i'd suggest that S.A. will remain the power price king.
It doesn't seem to say whether its open cycle or closed cycle, kind of important because closed cycle are a lot more efficient and not just a jet engine in a sturdy frame.

 

[PiCkLeJuiCe]

Well they are over 90% recyclable… in my book that’s renewable.
Next myth please.

Also any cost these days for renewables usually includes Storage.. the term used is FIRM Renewables.

A couple of points

1. Of course they link batteries to renewables as everyone knows, renewables aren't reliable on their own. Try to run a house, let alone a city on just renewable energy.

2 I guess nuclear energy is also a firm renewable.

The first thing to know, explains Flaviano Bruno to Renewable Matter, “is that only 5% of the material decommissioned from a plant is radioactive. Of the remainder, about 90% can be recovered or recycled, while another 5% is disposed of as conventional waste.”

How to recycle a nuclear power plant

Circular nuclear cycle: everything you can recycle from decommissioning a power plant

www.renewablematter.eu

 

[nut]

A couple of points

1. Of course they link batteries to renewables as everyone knows, renewables aren't reliable on their own. Try to run a house, let alone a city on just renewable energy.

2 I guess nuclear energy is also a firm renewable.

The first thing to know, explains Flaviano Bruno to Renewable Matter, “is that only 5% of the material decommissioned from a plant is radioactive. Of the remainder, about 90% can be recovered or recycled, while another 5% is disposed of as conventional waste.”

How to recycle a nuclear power plant

Circular nuclear cycle: everything you can recycle from decommissioning a power plant

www.renewablematter.eu

Yer … it’s so cheap to decommission a nuclear plant .

“
The cost of decommissioning a nuclear power plant can range from $500 million to $2 billion, but depends on several factors, including the reactor's purpose and operational history. Decommissioning is a complex process that can take 15–20 years.


Here are some examples of decommissioning costs for different countries:

• Japan
  The estimated cost of decommissioning and dismantling Japan's nuclear power plants is $2.5 billion. The process is expected to take 25–40 years.
  
  
  
• Germany
  The estimated cost of dismantling and storing waste from 23 nuclear power plants in Germany is between €26 billion and €44 billion.
  UK
  The Nuclear Decommissioning Authority (NDA) estimated in late 2022 that the cost of decommissioning a nuclear reactor in the UK is £6 billion. ”
  LNP policy … let our children worry about the future costs.
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  Meanwhile a battery still has value at the end of its useable life, which would compensate some of the costs in recycling.
  
  
  
  
  
  

 

[SaintsSeptember]

A couple of points

1. Of course they link batteries to renewables as everyone knows, renewables aren't reliable on their own. Try to run a house, let alone a city on just renewable energy.

2 I guess nuclear energy is also a firm renewable.

The first thing to know, explains Flaviano Bruno to Renewable Matter, “is that only 5% of the material decommissioned from a plant is radioactive. Of the remainder, about 90% can be recovered or recycled, while another 5% is disposed of as conventional waste.”

How to recycle a nuclear power plant

Circular nuclear cycle: everything you can recycle from decommissioning a power plant

www.renewablematter.eu

Its zero carbon, but not renewable, since you do consume fuel. Nuclear power produces a huge amount of energy from a small amount of fuel, but it is still consumed.

 

[Power Raid]

Here is Monash health banning charging …. Except they don’t.. only staff cars.

There hasn’t been 1 car in Australia that has caused a fire whilst charging…
Only 6 EV car fires ….many More petroleum cars catch fire…

Please read.

Melbourne hospital group bans electric-car charging in car parks – report

Almost a dozen hospitals and medical centres in Melbourne have banned staff members from charging their electric vehicles at work.

www.drive.com.au

again you don't understand what you are representing

a fuel or electrical fire on a combustion engine is not the same as a METAL FIRE from a battery. In risk management systems one looks at likelihood (as you have done) but also measure the risk if it occurs.

A metal fire is a complete other level in terms of outcome and even the ability to manage.




and zero cars catching fire whilst recharging. Wow, MinRes and their insurers must be confused.

 

[Power Raid]

oh and FYI CATL factory caught fire recently

all that lovely PFAS

 

[Power Raid]

If you can’t source a battery for under $800 per kw that has a warranty of 4000 cycles… than that’s not my problem.
Lifepo4 batteries can cycle up to 8000 cycles under the right conditions…
Do you want me to do the maths again????
Solar is soooooo cheap and last 20-40 years … it’s not worth even adding it to the cost of storage.
ok I will.

My system cost 30k .. battery was 16k … let’s do over 20 years so I let’s pretend I replaced my battery at 10 years… and 16k so 46k total cost 20kw storage.

So 46,000/ 4000 / 20 =0.575 cents a kilowatt…
And that just includes the solar produced for the battery…
It’s doesn't include the other
3.5 average sunlight hours x 15kw of solar = 3.5 x 15= 52.5 -20kw for battery = 32.5 that can be used on average every single day!!!!

So 32.5 x 4000 =130,000 @ let’s say @ 20c = $26000 worth of power. That brings the total cost to $20,000
20000/4000/20=0.25c

So a home battery and solar over a 20year period/8000 cycles costs 25c per KW…. And you think a commercial operation can’t match that…. LMFAO.

again you are confusing yourself. I do believe a commercial operation makes more sense than using an EV. I also believe future technologies will be better than current batteries as they are not cheap, filled with PFAS and don't deliver the scale required.

can you kindly provide the discount rate you used over 20 years on the cost of capital
can you kindly confirm the capacity factor over time
can you kindly provide the battery economics as a stand alone rather than blurring with panels
can you kindly compare to the battery economics as per above but using a whole car instead of a battery
can you kindly compare to a commercial scale system

would this analysis highlight a commercial system with well maintained optimisation systems be lower cost than a personal scale battery and even more so over an EV?

 

[PiCkLeJuiCe]

Its zero carbon, but not renewable, since you do consume fuel. Nuclear power produces a huge amount of energy from a small amount of fuel, but it is still consumed.

I know that. I was just using Nut's definition of renewable is if something is > 90% recyclable.

 

[Power Raid]

Its zero carbon, but not renewable, since you do consume fuel. Nuclear power produces a huge amount of energy from a small amount of fuel, but it is still consumed.

there is enough uranium on the planet, including in our drinking water and oceans to last longer than the time period before we are absorbed by the sun.

that probably means it achieves the same outcome as being renewable


I will emphasise though I don't believe we should go nuclear here in Oz unless we get a fast breeder Gen IV SMR. Fast breeders mean they burn uranium more similar to a thorium reactor.

 

[peetoo]

https://fb.watch/wg_IaZQzIH/?

 

[nut]

and zero cars catching fire whilst recharging. Wow, MinRes and their insurers must be confused.

Not one fire while charging in Australia… fact.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

I know that. I was just using Nut's definition of renewable is if something is > 90% recyclable.

I prefer this sort of storage.

Some interesting opinions on Lithium Batteries there too.

Though i'd wonder if using underground storage would be problematic. Nature doesn't really seal all that well sometimes and compressing air is kind of inefficient.


I like this type better. Its like pumped hydro , but instead of using a dam, it the water is compressing air. 180 Bar of pressure is equivalent to 2000m of dam drop.
Water can be pumped far more efficiently than gas can be compressed, and is also easier to generate electricity from.
If you push water into a tank of air, there is no air sealing issues.

 

[Power Raid]

https://fb.watch/wg_IaZQzIH/?

I visited the NIO facility in china and they do a similar thing but with a car. The process took just over two minutes.

Similar to this

 

[nut]

again you are confusing yourself. I do believe a commercial operation makes more sense than using an EV. I also believe future technologies will be better than current batteries as they are not cheap, filled with PFAS and don't deliver the scale required.

can you kindly provide the discount rate you used over 20 years on the cost of capital
can you kindly confirm the capacity factor over time
can you kindly provide the battery economics as a stand alone rather than blurring with panels
can you kindly compare to the battery economics as per above but using a whole car instead of a battery
can you kindly compare to a commercial scale system

would this analysis highlight a commercial system with well maintained optimisation systems be lower cost than a personal scale battery and even more so over an EV?

Seriously can’t you read? My battery cost 16k… 4000 cycle warranty .. it’ll do a lot more. 20kwh battery …. Do the sums.
Capacity pay reduce by 10% …

Capital rate is the same for every other investment… I got no discounts.

EVs will be part of the mix…

Please give us options for zero PFAS… with out using a phone or computer to type that doesn’t have PFAS.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

I visited the NIO facility in china and they do a similar thing but with a car. The process took just over two minutes.

Similar to this

I can't see how heavy trucks could work "without" some sort of swap system.

 

[nut]

I can't see how heavy trucks could work "without" some sort of swap system.

Tesla building fast chargers now for trucks.

If Norwegian Ferries can charge 5MW in 5 minutes I don’t think there will be a future for swap batteries..

Where smart ferry charging begins with a smart grid

NORWAY: The Hareid-Sulesund ferry operations have reduced CO2 emissions by 7000 tonnes annually with the introduction of electric vessels. In transitioning ferries from diesel to pure electric power, powerful onshore support is essential, in the form of reliable infrastructure for rapid charging...

www.danfoss.com

 

[Power Raid]

Seriously can’t you read? My battery cost 16k… 4000 cycle warranty .. it’ll do a lot more. 20kwh battery …. Do the sums.
Capacity pay reduce by 10% …

Capital rate is the same for every other investment… I got no discounts.

EVs will be part of the mix…

Please give us options for zero PFAS… with out using a phone or computer to type that doesn’t have PFAS.

a standard practice is to discount future revenues as tomorrows $ is less than today's capital outlay $s. Discounts based on personal capital would be 7 to 10%

capacity factor would be 10 to 30% over time

efficiency factor would depend on heat and how often your control system was serviced to optimise performance but 10 to 20% is reasonable

then consider whether you are getting a full charge and discharge to deliver the full 4,000 cycles



I just find it strange you get a lower operating cost than those that operate BESS at commercial scale with direct to CATL wholesale prices

 

[Power Raid]

I can't see how heavy trucks could work "without" some sort of swap system.

I agree and the other issue currently facing batteries is power. This will be unlocked with high surface area silicon (silicon equals up to 10 times greater charge (theoretical) to graphite and the surface area can deliver up to 60 times greater power (the charge and discharge rate).

combined you get an anode with greater charge and greater power.



either way for a car or a truck a lease model for the battery makes more sense than ownership of the battery. This is in parallel with jet aircraft, where the jet plane leases jet engines with a click in click out service model.

 

[nut]

I just find it strange you get a lower operating cost than those that operate BESS at commercial scale with direct to CATL wholesale prices

A quick google and the price per KW is anywhere from $100 to $250 for large scale batteries.… I paid $833.
I think the large scale batteries would also have better management systems and cooling etc… to pro long life and cycles.
So like I said the cost per KW would be in the single digits..

$200/4000 cycles is 5c.
Is my maths wrong?

 

[SaintsSeptember]

again you don't understand what you are representing

a fuel or electrical fire on a combustion engine is not the same as a METAL FIRE from a battery. In risk management systems one looks at likelihood (as you have done) but also measure the risk if it occurs.

A metal fire is a complete other level in terms of outcome and even the ability to manage.




and zero cars catching fire whilst recharging. Wow, MinRes and their insurers must be confused.

All aircraft have a protocol for lithium fires. You kick it into the aisle , and they have some means for getting it into a special heat proof box. where it will no doubt continue to burn. ( i don't know if they have two ).
So they realize its not frequent ( or they would ban phones and laptops on flights, at which time i would stop long haul flights ), but they realize they need a plan in place.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

A quick google and the price per KW is anywhere from $100 to $250 for large scale batteries.… I paid $833.
I think the large scale batteries would also have better management systems and cooling etc… to pro long life and cycles.
So like I said the cost per KW would be in the single digits..

$200/4000 cycles is 5c.
Is my maths wrong?

They don't price it per kw, they price it per kwh.
The little AA things in your car are the same as the ones in home batteries, are the same as the one in large scale "Big" batteries. Any difference in pricing is just a bulk discount.

 

[nut]

They don't price it per kw, they price it per kwh.
The little AA things in your car are the same as the ones in home batteries, are the same as the one in large scale "Big" batteries. Any difference in pricing is just a bulk discount.

Yes and KWH is extremely cheap and getting cheaper.