Traded Tim Kelly [traded with #57 and future 3rd to West Coast for #14, #24, #33 and future 1st]

[Goggin Our Best]

my prediction:
West Coast offers a)
Wells asks for e)
they end up settling on b)

Whats (b) - 4 1st rounders and Dustin Martin

 

[Asapartyhat]

or he relents and agrees to be traded to Fremantle because West Coast aren't prepared to do what it takes to honor their commitment to him.

Dont think how he gets to the Eagles is that big of an issue just as long as he gets there .
So far with Fremantle he has ignored an invitation to meet with the club and said he wants to go to the Eagles.
Just seems unlikely that will change

 

[DanWA]

Footage of Kelly’s comments at Perth airport, if anyone (like me) hadn’t seen it

How dare he name his destination

Only Ablett & Dangerfield are allowed to do that

 

[Taylor]

Are you saying Freo could try the 900k+ offer on?

I do.

But I think an example being more true to the Mitch example would be Adelaide or Sydney throwing $1,000,000 a year at Kelly, then he goes straight to them for the top five draft pick.

 

[Scotland]

Point value only valuable to NGA and academy players. If 7 academy players in top 10 next year pick 14 could turn into second Rd pick.

If the top 10 has 7 academy players in it then that means pick 14 is effectively the 7th pick of everyone else.

Geelong could have pick 1 and bid on academy players and not get any of them. That's how it works. Look at last year's draft; Thomas at 8, Blakey at 10, Quaynor at 13. These guys were never really available to teams other than North, Sydney and Collingwood respectively. Port benefited, so did Carlton. Chayce Jones was pick 9 but in reality was pick 8. Thomas was always going to North whether they had pick 8 or not.

The top 10 being full of points prospects can benefit teams who aren't in that race. Picks 17 and 18 are worth roughly the same as pick 4. If Geelong had their own first (10-18), our first (10-18) and their own second (28-36) that could be anywhere from 2500-3500 points, which is enough for any academy/FS/NGA bid. People talk about points being irrelevant, next year is the time they are relevant. Geelong or any other team not looking to bid on players are in the box seat to cash in picks in the teens and later and get into the top 5 or 10.

 

[Miguel Sanchez]

The more relevant example to me is Mitch Clark.

Freo offer their second pick and a modest deal for Mitch who was desperate to get home for family reasons, Brisbane want the first pick we have. It stalls.

Melbourne offer twice the money and a way better draft pick, Mitch decides his family reasons aren't such a big deal and he moves to Melbourne instead.

...Clark does next to nothing at Melbourne, Freo dodge a bullet.

It’s not a great precedent for a club trying to swoop in and snatch a player away.

 

[DanWA]

I do.

But I think an example being more true to the Mitch example would be Adelaide or Sydney throwing $1,000,000 a year at Kelly, then he goes straight to them for the top five draft pick.

Somehow i don't think the whole children's health and family support requirements fit a state other than W.A

A million might change his mind to go to Freo though, but can't see Bell doing that

 

[Scotland]

Yes, I think it's been established ,that a Club talking directly to fans before the trade results in a s**t fight.

Who cares what fans think? None of us have a skin in the game. We are only "sources" for journos like Damian Barrett.

Kelly requests move to WC. Geelong immediately start talking about Freo.

 

[kozi]

Seriously, this has almost never happened in the history of draft and trade. Nick Stevens, Luke Ball, that's basically it. "He'll walk for nothing" is like Pickup Artistry: seems to work a lot more on the internet than in reality.

Because the seller ends up bending before it gets to the point of losing a player for nothing. Same thing will most likely happen here.

 

[Peel67skin]

If the top 10 has 7 academy players in it then that means pick 14 is effectively the 7th pick of everyone else.

Geelong could have pick 1 and bid on academy players and not get any of them. That's how it works. Look at last year's draft; Thomas at 8, Blakey at 10, Quaynor at 13. These guys were never really available to teams other than North, Sydney and Collingwood respectively. Port benefited, so did Carlton. Chayce Jones was pick 9 but in reality was pick 8. Thomas was always going to North whether they had pick 8 or not.

The top 10 being full of points prospects can benefit teams who aren't in that race. Picks 17 and 18 are worth roughly the same as pick 4. If Geelong had their own first (10-18), our first (10-18) and their own second (28-36) that could be anywhere from 2500-3500 points, which is enough for any academy/FS/NGA bid. People talk about points being irrelevant, next year is the time they are relevant. Geelong or any other team not looking to bid on players are in the box seat to cash in picks in the teens and later and get into the top 5 or 10.

I know what you mean, but you need to put yourself in neutral mode, not bias toward Eagles or Geelong when you do a trade deal like this. Eg do I think Eagles first round for GC multiple second is a bad deal for GC. YES but what can GCS learn from that, don't trade multiple pick to other club when Fremantle clearly stated pick 2 as a requirement to get the deal done for Weller. Still think Clayton talk to Eagles management before the deal go through.

 

[Taylor]

...Clark does next to nothing at Melbourne, Freo dodge a bullet.

It’s not a great precedent for a club trying to swoop in and snatch a player away.

If that is how it works out Fremantle and West Coast supporters ...

 

[Warhorse]

Is there a fringe player you had in mind?

No. I just can't see a deal being done with just picks.

 

[Scotland]

I know what you mean, but you need to put yourself in neutral mode, not bias toward Eagles or Geelong when you do a trade deal like this.

Neutral mode? I'm not an automatic transmission.

WC have a long history of being boring, conservative traders.

 

[teddies]

Dont think how he gets to the Eagles is that big of an issue just as long as he gets there .
So far with Fremantle he has ignored an invitation to meet with the club and said he wants to go to the Eagles.
Just seems unlikely that will change

sounds the ball's in West Coast's court to get it done. Explaining to Kelly that West Coast are unable to honor their commitment to him because the club isn't prepared to meet Geelong's demands would be an awkward conversation to have.

 

[FreeTK]

sounds the ball's in West Coast's court to get it done. Explaining to Kelly that West Coast are unable to honor their commitment to him because the club isn't prepared to meet Geelong's demands would be an awkward conversation to have.

You're doing too much. Wells' comments today were inline with his remarks on Trade Radion i.e. 14+2020 1st isn't enough.

Today is opening gambit for trade week. More likely than not it gets done. Something like 14+34+2020 1st.

 

[Shadow89]

d,

or e with 36 coming back.

Cats get their 3 picks inside 30, and "more than 2 first rounders"

I'd suggest both teams already know the rough deal and its just arguing over the minor picks.

E with the caveat that 36 comes back, has been my stance for a fair while now. Either with us dealing with a team, or WC doing the work to get us a Pick 9 (Carlton) for example. Mirrors most elite trades, as stated multiple times.

 

[DamoESP]

Because the seller ends up bending before it gets to the point of losing a player for nothing. Same thing will most likely happen here.

Generally, but not all the time, just remember Nick Stevens.

 

[Scotland]

No. I just can't see a deal being done with just picks.

A lot of "can't see" going on.

Everyone knows what picks we have. 14, 24, 33, 2020 1st (1-18), 2020 2nd (19-36). Anyone who "can't see" a trade from that isn't looking very hard.

I like our list, but I don't see a bunch of players worth substantially more than the picks we have available. We're not trading Yeo, Shuey, Darling etc. and guys like Petruccelle and Nelson really aren't that valuable. A side trade for either would be lucky to get pick 36 from the Cats.

 

[Miguel Sanchez]

Generally, but not all the time, just remember Nick Stevens.

There’s a reason why the example you cite is from 16 years ago and before the rules changed to allow players to put themselves in the ND, not just the PSD.

It’s because uncontracted players not getting where they want doesn’t happen very often and pretty much hasn’t since that rule change.

 

[Blueeygrey]

Who cares what fans think? None of us have a skin in the game. We are only "sources" for journos like Damian Barrett.

Kelly requests move to WC. Geelong immediately start talking about Freo.

Geelong do obviously, I could guess they want to drum up public consciousness in order to provoke a highball offer from another Club (preferably a West Australian Club with lots of high draft picks). I mean why else would they scream to the media. To say, they care for their supporters?

 

[Peel67skin]

Neutral mode? I'm not an automatic transmission.

WC have a long history of being boring, conservative traders.

I don't think so, I think Eagles is pretty smart and creative to get into GCS ears with trading your future 1 St for multiple second Rd. Just that you need to find another club that buy into what you offer that think like Clayton .

 

[nameless]

Even if Kelly was open to Freo, would they be crazy enough to give up picks 6 & 7 (from Hill) to get him?

I mentioned earlier they'd at least want a decent pick coming back.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Id say they 100% would of. It surely is on the top of the cats and eagles list to get this done asap

This deal will be dependent on other deals..it wont get done til late.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Even if Kelly was open to Freo, would they be crazy enough to give up picks 6 & 7 (from Hill) to get him?

I mentioned earlier they'd at least want a decent pick coming back.

No they wouldnt.

 

[kozi]

Generally, but not all the time, just remember Nick Stevens.

One off example from 2003 is hardly relevant here.

Bottom line is Geelong aren’t losing him for nothing. That gives West Coast significant leverage as when push comes to shove the threat of trading with another club for a pick to draft him will strong arm the deal closer to their terms if they choose to go down that path.