List Mgmt. Trade and F/A - Part 3

[JLC]

Amen, complete lack of class and polish. Dunstan is a guy of need though.

No to Dunstan.

Show faith in the kids.

Jack Silvagnis ruck work against Grundy must have impressed.

 

[doppleganger]

The thing is that we are the only club that talks about matching the points. Every other club that trades an early pick down increases the points significantly. That's the current trade market. A top 10 pick is worth considerably more than two mid 20s picks in trade - even if the points match. GWS would have taken the deal eagerly even if they thought it was going to be pick 9.

Teams shift picks around all the time!?

And the premium is on current draft when looping in future picks, the future picks not valued as highly as their is uncertainty. GWS didn't know what our first rounder would be...but they were handing over known currency.

Future discount rate principal.
If you have a pick 8 today, or have pick 8 next year....would always take current option.

Ie Geelong traded their future first for pick 20 when they were trying to get picks to satisfy GWS for Cameron.

We flipped 25 for 27 and Adelaide future 3rd (Adelaide basically throwing away a future pick 40 for nothing).

Melbourne and Brisbane had a similar trade involving future picks, Brisbane look like being the loser as they would have expected Dees future first to be a top10, but now will be 20+ once F&S are rolled in.

Inheritent risk in trades involving future picks, and resultantly clubs devalue them slightly

 

[Everybody Panic]

With the two years experience we would have still filled our list spots in 2021 so while the names wouldnt be Poulter and McMahon (Maybe for McMahon as he may have still been available later) we would have picked two other kids to develop with a little less upside.

The carrot would be the hopefully high end player from the 2022 draft we would have been able to add by trading out pick 2 from this year.

So who do we trade with for that pick tho? We know futures are no certainty. We could trade with someone like Saints then see them go finals.
I agree about the 2 years apart from one thing. What if our club rated Poulter pick 15? Is it worth it then? To simple look at players as numbers is stupid. There's every chance a player who goes 15 in one year would be pick 2 the next if not for a few months of birth date.

 

[Everybody Panic]

I think too big a deal is made about the 2 years experience.

Here are the two drafts that set up the Cats era of dominance:

1999 - Corey, Chapman, Ling, Enright
2001 - Bartell, Kelly, Johnson, Ablett

By the time they were ready, the extra two year's of experience was irrelevant. In fact the younger one's were probably more important, becasue they were more talented. If you are rebuilding through the draft, you've got to be patient - and valuing something much higher simply because you get it sooner isn't patience.

Yes, but if you take out Corey, Chapman, Ling and Enright from that team, maybe they don't win anything. Maybe they don't get the same players later because they have to fill the needs. Your post supports my argument. Drafting a team, highlighting players who will help you win, is much more important than getting just high picks.

It's also worth noting that from memory Geelong nailed their picks outside top 10. It's like how our rookies smashed it in 2010. Take them out and we likely don't win it.

 

[sr36]

Teams shift picks around all the time!?

And the premium is on current draft when looping in future picks, the future picks not valued as highly as their is uncertainty. GWS didn't know what our first rounder would be...but they were handing over known currency.

Future discount rate principal.
If you have a pick 8 today, or have pick 8 next year....would always take current option.

Ie Geelong traded their future first for pick 20 when they were trying to get picks to satisfy GWS for Cameron.

We flipped 25 for 27 and Adelaide future 3rd (Adelaide basically throwing away a future pick 40 for nothing).

Melbourne and Brisbane had a similar trade involving future picks, Brisbane look like being the loser as they would have expected Dees future first to be a top10, but now will be 20+ once F&S are rolled in.

Inheritent risk in trades involving future picks, and resultantly clubs devalue them slightly

But I'm suggesting that we were losers unless we finished top 4 this year, which was incredibly unlikely. So I really don't see a realistic scenario where we were going to get value for the trade.

 

[sr36]

Yes, but if you take out Corey, Chapman, Ling and Enright from that team, maybe they don't win anything. Maybe they don't get the same players later because they have to fill the needs. Your post supports my argument. Drafting a team, highlighting players who will help you win, is much more important than getting just high picks.

It's also worth noting that from memory Geelong nailed their picks outside top 10. It's like how our rookies smashed it in 2010. Take them out and we likely don't win it.

No, our scenario is more like taking away Geelong's early pick from 2001 - Bartel and adding in a couple of more blokes into the 1999 draft for Geelong, because it is an advantage to have those other blokes two years earlier.

 

[Everybody Panic]

No, our scenario is more like taking away Geelong's early pick from 2001 - Bartel and adding in a couple of more blokes into the 1999 draft for Geelong, because it is an advantage to have those other blokes two years earlier.

But if we are even, Geelong would get priority access to the next number 1 pick like we do with Daicos. Who was Nick Reiwolt. Not bad.

 

[sr36]

But if we are even, Geelong would get priority access to the next number 1 pick like we do with Daicos. Who was Nick Reiwolt. Not bad.

You've lost me? Aren't we comparing trading that pick back into 2022 versus what we did? And a perceived advantage fo getting the blokes two years earlier.

 

[Everybody Panic]

You've lost me? Aren't we comparing trading that pick back into 2022 versus what we did? And a perceived advantage fo getting the blokes two years earlier.

Yep, and in scenario, we do it based on having access to Daicos. I see it as something like Poulter, McMahon and Daicos (we got more but can't remember) Vs Daicos Freo future 1st, Freo future 2nd (traded for pick 2).

 

[jonmacTrag]

I simply can't understand the obsession some of you have for the minutiae of deals long gone - to me it's nitpicking after the fact and has no intrinsic value whatsoever.

 

[doppleganger]

But I'm suggesting that we were losers unless we finished top 4 this year, which was incredibly unlikely. So I really don't see a realistic scenario where we were going to get value for the trade.

So to get pick 24 and 27 in the 2021 draft, plus a 2022 fourth round, what pick would you expect to give up in the 2022 draft that would be fair value?

Me thinks you are not applying a big enough discount on future picks.

 

[stormskye]

The question isn’t can we get Dunstan, it’s why is he gettable? It’s the saints we are talking about here

 

[TakingThePies]

The question isn’t can we get Dunstan, it’s why is he gettable? It’s the saints we are talking about here

Dunstan has had injuries but couldn't get into the team despite performing. Think theres an internal issue there. But he racks it up.

 

[HFF]

We dont need to be allocating resources and minutes to Dunstan.
Taylor Adams

3

Taylor Adams

Age

31

Ht

181cm

Wt

85kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

24.9

5star

K

13.5

5star

HB

11.4

5star

M

4.0

4star

T

4.8

5star

CL

5.0

5star

D

20.4

5star

K

12.4

5star

HB

8.0

4star

M

4.0

4star

T

5.9

5star

CL

5.9

5star

D

18.2

5star

K

11.0

4star

HB

7.2

5star

M

4.4

4star

T

3.0

5star

CL

2.2

4star

in an injury free year will be there.
JDG will be there with his transformation.
Pendlebury will still be here.
Add then the youth of Daicos x 2, Macrae, McInnes, Poulter all of whom we will be looking to get games in to...we simply have no need for a player like Dunstan.

 

[ZEV]

Taylor Adams in an injury free year will be there.

Tay has managed to play every game in a season ONCE in his career....

 

[TakingThePies]

We dont need to be allocating resources and minutes to Dunstan.
Taylor Adams in an injury free year will be there.
JDG will be there with his transformation.
Pendlebury will still be here.
Add then the youth of Daicos x 2, Macrae, McInnes, Poulter all of whom we will be looking to get games in to...we simply have no need for a player like Dunstan.

I'm sorry but we do. Adams is the only inside mid there.. Pendles Outside, De Goey plays outside half the time. You need someone in and under and he's the player.

 

[left at home]

Agree we all have opinions. I think as a group , supporters and the press have got excited by our "9 debutants" and have them almost over the line. I am pleased with their 1st year but none of them are established yet and as often happens that initial spark of games is hard to keep up. It will take a few seasons to tell how good the 2020 group is but I doubt they will end up being more than a group of solid citizen players in the mold of Blair/Thomas/WHE/Benny J/Phillips with maybe 1-2 who turn out better than that. That would exceed expectations.

I dont think getting kids a little later in the 2020 draft would be a major difference and if combined with another top 10 in 2022 after judicious trading of our 2021 no 2 pick we would be much better off.

Leigh Montagna summed up our kids and list pretty well in Fox Footy today

“I’m still not sure about their young talent – they’ve debuted nine players this year – no Rising Star nominees among those nine, some of them have shown they’ve got some real upside.

“I think they still are on the way down, it’s going to get worse before it gets better. It’s not an overly enticing list to look at the moment. They’ve got a lot of work to do before they even start in an upward trend.”

We all know that we can be at same level next year, so so not really worried about that, rising star, well who cares, l don’t that much, it’s more about bragging rights. It’s how quickly they develop and improve.
Our 2021 1st l have come to the conclusion that know matter want we tried we were never going to get full value for it, the clubs had us over the barrel.
I think you are being rather negative about this group, and l think they will be more than solid citizens. The year before’s group will mainly be just that.
There are no guarantees getting high pick will make our rebuild any quicker at all.
As for Leigh Montagna, sorry l cannot believe you quoted him as a defence

 

[Kappa]

Dunstan has had injuries but couldn't get into the team despite performing. Think theres an internal issue there. But he racks it up.

He couldn't get into the team because he's the worst kick on their list

 

[PieBeast]

After watching him closely on the weekend in the SANFL I actually think Boyd Woodcock would be a really worthwhile acquisition. Particularly as he is OOC.

Prior to that game I had only considered him a forward option, but he really showed a lot as a midfielder. He has pretty slick skills.

Probably the first decent obtainable name that I've seen mentioned on here in ages.

Can see why he's out of favour at Port but Woodcock's pace and skills would be a great addition to us and would spell the end of JT.

 

[left at home]

Unpopular opinion, but Jack Silvagni would be a good addition to our list IMO.

Not at all, l don’t think he is as bad as people make out. There have been a lot worse suggestions than recruiting Jack

 

[sr36]

So to get pick 24 and 27 in the 2021 draft, plus a 2022 fourth round, what pick would you expect to give up in the 2022 draft that would be fair value?

Me thinks you are not applying a big enough discount on future picks.

In the same draft, it'd cost about pick 27 to trade up from 24 to about 16.

I might not be allowing a big enough discount for the have now tax that so many clubs are willing to pay. However, I don't know why we would have paid it, as we need to rebuild our midfield and that's going to take years - two years earlier shouldn't have been relevant to us. Plus that was a draft where clubs were looking to trade out of - not the other way around. So the tax for picks in that range should have been small. Frankly, I think any club that trades out future picks for a significant discount is going to lose significantly in the long run.

There was an article earlier in the year, claiming that we were trying to use that pick to trade up with Essendon and another club that I can't remember - apparently they were both shocked with the price we ended up accepting. I was shocked too.

 

[Horaceg]

But I'm suggesting that we were losers unless we finished top 4 this year, which was incredibly unlikely. So I really don't see a realistic scenario where we were going to get value for the trade.

Poulter and McMahon are part of a Grand Final win, we Won’t know for a few years yet.

 

[Rusty Beam]

Probably the first decent obtainable name that I've seen mentioned on here in ages.

Can see why he's out of favour at Port but Woodcock's pace and skills would be a great addition to us and would spell the end of JT.

Honestly he was really good and particularly creative. We have a physically big enough midfield and could afford to have him as that smaller midfielder in the rotation.

Riley Bonner is another at Port who I also like and has been out of favour.

Personally I think think they are the kind of players we should target if we can’t go after big names.

Pick off the talented younger blokes who are not getting an opportunity at the top teams (same reason I like Dylan Stephens).

This has to be a ground up rebuild in order to actually build something worthwhile.

I really hope we don’t bring in mid career, middle of the road plodders to get us mid table for the next 5 years, with no chance of actually winning a flag.

 

[Football God]

Cooper Sharman for the Saints looks good.

This is what can happen when a team picks a 190cm plus forward in the mid season draft.

Crazy talk I know

Was listening to SEN this morning, apparently was only playing Ressies for Balwyn in the EFL last year

 

[whiskeytown]

Was listening to SEN this morning, apparently was only playing Ressies for Balwyn in the EFL last year

Yeah I got the year he went wrong