List Mgmt. Trade and F/A - Part 3

[OniAu]

Alright yeah may not be that straight forward.

So

Pick #1

FOR

Jordan de Goey and 2022 first rounder

OR

Brodie Grundy and 2x second round draft selections over next two years.

OR

Isaac Quaynor, Ollie Henry and Caleb Poulter.

We lose on all those trades. Plus we are getting the best player in the draft already with our current pick.

This is a general comment also. I dont get the fascination with trading into the top 10 and letting players go who have development put into them already.

 

[PyrrhicVic]

Left field question, expecting haters.

Could we trade for North's number one selection? Frees up salary cap, gets JHF, we could bid on Darcy and we get Nick as well.

Or we on trade that to another club and get a few players and top end picks.

Someone would have to go. And it's going to have been a Moore, JDG, Maynard and something else on top of that. We saw Hawthorn do it in 2001. Fans hated them but later it would prove ingenious.

When you expect haters, maybe stop and think why...completely ridiculous scenario.

It would take JDG, Maynard and our future first to get North’s pick...if your goal is to decimate our club then go ahead

 

[TradeDraft]

 

[snagbreac]

When you expect haters, maybe stop and think why...completely ridiculous scenario.

It would take JDG, Maynard and our future first to get North’s pick...if your goal is to decimate our club then go ahead

It was more a hypothetical and exploration. Hawthorn's trade back in 2001 just reminds you that it is possible and can work out.

 

[snagbreac]

Where is the Dom Sheed rumour mill coming from? I know he's unlikely to play for the Pies but there's obviously some rumblings.

 

[Gone Critical]

Perhaps I should put it this way. Has any player who has agreed in principle with the terms the club he wishes to go to and rebuffed all other suitors, nominated for the PSD and been picked up by any other team that is not his preference.

More pertinent would be how many times has a club with a 2nd pick in the PSD draft marched their player to the draft with the expectation that if the team with the 1st pick didnt have a better option they wouldnt take said player.

If NM dont have a good pick up in the PSD and Lipinski is best available why don't they take him? He puts a 3 year contract on his head with the undertaking he will go to the club who picks him. He cant really say after I never really wanted to go to NM. He buckles down with them, finds they are a team on the rise with a young list and a spot in the midfield for him and he advances his career.

One of the reasons we wont take him to the PSD is this.

 

[Gone Critical]

Length of tenure!

A scenario where they didn’t front end the deal is nightmare fuel. Fast forward to Rd 1 2025, Grundy’s 31 with his deal expiring at the end of 2027 and it’s worth say $800k pa. On the basis of what we saw in 20-21 it’s a scary thought when that’s the time we hope to be contending.

FWIW I’d be shocked if it were $1m pa because I reckon he took unders to get 7 years. The worry again is when he receives the money because if it was back ended we need to bring some of it forward as early as 2023.

I am not saying its ideal and what you point out is correct but its not the massive millstone its made out to be. Its managable. The environment has changed and the rest of the list really cant reference it as a starting point gfor their negotiations

 

[sr36]

More pertinent would be how many times has a club with a 2nd pick in the PSD draft marched their player to the draft with the expectation that if the team with the 1st pick didnt have a better option they wouldnt take said player.

If NM dont have a good pick up in the PSD and Lipinski is best available why don't they take him? He puts a 3 year contract on his head with the undertaking he will go to the club who picks him. He cant really say after I never really wanted to go to NM. He buckles down with them, finds they are a team on the rise with a young list and a spot in the midfield for him and he advances his career.

One of the reasons we wont take him to the PSD is this.

Yeah, I don't really understand why many are adamant that the best way is to be ruthless and go the PSD route, but assume North wouldn't be ruthless enough to take him if they rate him.

 

[Pragmatic Shill]

Where is the Dom Sheed rumour mill coming from? I know he's unlikely to play for the Pies but there's obviously some rumblings.

It's come from a nuffie Pies supporter group on Facebook.

 

[snagbreac]

Every AFL club’s dream trade outcome — and the doomsday scenario they dread

Pies’ draft disaster; $7m star wants out as GF losers hit hard: Every club’s trade doomsday

www.foxsports.com.au

Absolute BS Lipinski is a 2nd rounder.

 

[Everybody Panic]

Have we traded our future first for Logan McDonald yet?

This is my pie in the sky dream trade. I want him more than King. I think he's gettable end of next year if we have cap space.

 

[TheGreatSwan]

Alright yeah may not be that straight forward.

So

Pick #1

FOR

Jordan de Goey and 2022 first rounder

OR

Brodie Grundy and 2x second round draft selections over next two years.

OR

Isaac Quaynor, Ollie Henry and Caleb Poulter.

Okay let's look at the number 1 draft pick since 2000.

2000: Nick Riewoldt
2001: Luke Hodge
2002: Brendon Goddard
2003: Adam Cooney
2004: Brett Deledio
2005: Marc Murphy
2006: Bryce Gibbs
2007: Matthew Kreuzer
2008: Jack Watts
2009: Tom Scully
2010: David Swallow
2011: Jonathon Patton
2012: Lachie Whitfield
2013: Tom Boyd
2014: Paddy McCartin
2015: Jacob Weitering
2016: Andrew McGrath
2017: Cameron Rayner
2018: San Walsh
2019: Matt Rowell
2020: Jamarra Ugle-Hagan

From this list, knowing how their careers have played out and our current list needs which players would be more valuable than De Goey or Brodie Grundy (+the draft selections you suggested)?

I would MAYBE consider Riewoldt, Hodge, Goddard, Whitfield, Walsh and JUH (still unknown if he'll make it). That's 6 players out of 21. Do you think the gap between De Goey or Grundy and the players I mentioned is significant enough to make that much of a impact difference? Let's not forget JDG and Grundy are young enough to be a part of our next flag tilt. When you factor in the additional draft picks we'd have to give up as you mentioned and more than 50% risk that a number 1 pick won't reach their initial hype, it seems like there is a clear answer to me.

Horne could very well turn out to be a Brownlow medallist, but I think it's a big risk to give up that much. Now if it was 2020 when we had the serious salary cap issues, I would do the first two deals in a heartbeat considering what we got.

 

[Everybody Panic]

Okay let's look at the number 1 draft pick since 2000.

2000: Nick Riewoldt
2001: Luke Hodge
2002: Brendon Goddard
2003: Adam Cooney
2004: Brett Deledio
2005: Marc Murphy
2006: Bryce Gibbs
2007: Matthew Kreuzer
2008: Jack Watts
2009: Tom Scully
2010: David Swallow
2011: Jonathon Patton
2012: Lachie Whitfield
2013: Tom Boyd
2014: Paddy McCartin
2015: Jacob Weitering
2016: Andrew McGrath
2017: Cameron Rayner
2018: San Walsh
2019: Matt Rowell
2020: Jamarra Ugle-Hagan

From this list, knowing how their careers have played out and our current list needs which players would be more valuable than De Goey or Brodie Grundy (+the draft selections you suggested)?

I would MAYBE consider Riewoldt, Hodge, Goddard, Whitfield, Walsh and JUH (still unknown if he'll make it). That's 6 players out of 21. Do you think the gap between De Goey or Grundy and the players I mentioned is significant enough to make that much of a impact difference? Let's not forget JDG and Grundy are young enough to be a part of our next flag tilt. When you factor in the additional draft picks we'd have to give up as you mentioned and more than 50% risk that a number 1 pick won't reach their initial hype, it seems like there is a clear answer to me.

Horne could very well turn out to be a Brownlow medallist, but I think it's a big risk to give up that much. Now if it was 2020 when we had the serious salary cap issues, I would do the first two deals in a heartbeat considering what we got.

Unless I'm wrong, only 1 of them had played in a premiership, with a few losing in grand finals as well.

 

[snagbreac]

Who else thinks Max Loughton is off his rocker? Does not have any clue what he is talking. It makes sense to get cheap pickups like Lipinski and Kreuger even when you need draft selections because Collingwood will get Nick Daicos no matter what.

 

[OniAu]

Matt Rendell is a nuffy. " Play Allir Allir as second ruck" Thats essentially the reason he left sydney.

 

[OniAu]

Who else thinks Max Loughton is off his rocker? Does not have any clue what he is talking. It makes sense to get cheap pickups like Lipinski and Kreuger even when you need draft selections because Collingwood will get Nick Daicos no matter what.

Guy is just a glorified Big Footy user with a web chat

 

[List Choker]

More pertinent would be how many times has a club with a 2nd pick in the PSD draft marched their player to the draft with the expectation that if the team with the 1st pick didnt have a better option they wouldnt take said player.

If NM dont have a good pick up in the PSD and Lipinski is best available why don't they take him? He puts a 3 year contract on his head with the undertaking he will go to the club who picks him. He cant really say after I never really wanted to go to NM. He buckles down with them, finds they are a team on the rise with a young list and a spot in the midfield for him and he advances his career.

One of the reasons we wont take him to the PSD is this.

Perhaps, but he if he only wants a one year deal with conditions that Nth would not find palatable, then he will get to were he wants. I cannot recall any player
in the PSD who has made it clear were he wants to go being picked up by a rival club.

 

[snagbreac]

Guy is just a glorified Big Footy user with a web chat

Honestly, I think I could do better than some of the answers he is putting out. He just says the first smart bum thing that comes into his mind with no discretion

 

[snagbreac]

Perhaps, but he if he only wants a one year deal with conditions that Nth would not find palatable, then he will get to were he wants. I cannot recall any player
in the PSD who has made it clear were he wants to go being picked up by a rival club.

Nick Stevens. Was at PA, wanted to go to the Pies and ended up at Carlton.

 

[OniAu]

Unless I'm wrong, only 1 of them had played in a premiership, with a few losing in grand finals as well.

Hodge and Boyd.

 

[Maison]

If we're hellbent of the idea of getting the number one pick just gut the list (not much left though) and have a development next year.

Let North Have DeGoey.

Pick 1 & 2.

Still won't draft a Key Forward but have the assets to draw a King or McDonald or BOTH.

We'd have two KPF for the next Decade. What will we complain about then?

 

[Dead Eye Didak]

So McGovern is on $800K a year at Carlton, with 2 years to go, they have Williams and Saad on big long-term deals, $700k - $850k a year, McKay just signed a big 2 year deal $800k per year, and Cripps signed a 6 year deal for $800k a year, eventhough the reports are its $1M a year.
They have Cerra coming in on a 4 year deal $750k -$800k a year, and need to re-sign Walsh, who will command at least $900k a season!! Not to mention Martin, Weitering, Fisher etc...How do they continue to bring people in, without stretching the cap.
We are worried about signing 3 players, who will probably end up taking between $800k - $850k a season, because after JDG, Moore and Maynard, there isnt anyone who can command big $ contracts after 2022, besides the current Grundy contract, and Adams is contracted until 2024, and Crisp 2023. You would think if Howe, Elliott, Sidey and Roughead are still at the club after 2022, it will be on minimal contracts, same with Pendles second year of his new contract.

 

[Jafo]

Max Gawn's one in the Granny gave me flashbacks.

Yeah and that wasn’t reviewed by the Arc either.

 

[Jafo]

So McGovern is on $800K a year at Carlton, with 2 years to go, they have Williams and Saad on big long-term deals, $700k - $850k a year, McKay just signed a big 2 year deal $800k per year, and Cripps signed a 6 year deal for $800k a year, eventhough the reports are its $1M a year.
They have Cerra coming in on a 4 year deal $750k -$800k a year, and need to re-sign Walsh, who will command at least $900k a season!! Not to mention Martin, Weitering, Fisher etc...How do they continue to bring people in, without stretching the cap.
We are worried about signing 3 players, who will probably end up taking between $800k - $850k a season, because after JDG, Moore and Maynard, there isnt anyone who can command big $ contracts after 2022, besides the current Grundy contract, and Adams is contracted until 2024, and Crisp 2023. You would think if Howe, Elliott, Sidey and Roughead are still at the club after 2022, it will be on minimal contracts, same with Pendles second year of his new contract.

Guessing you aren’t privy to paper bags left in the bleachers at Princes Park? And apparently the fitness coach was being paid more the Teague recently.

 

[Scodog10]

I am not saying its ideal and what you point out is correct but its not the massive millstone its made out to be. Its managable. The environment has changed and the rest of the list really cant reference it as a starting point gfor their negotiations

Do you have confidence in the previous football department not back ending his deal? They were up to all sorts of stuff in terms of deferring money so I’m not sure why Grundy would be any different? The evidence points to negligence with the length of the contract so I think the safe assumption is that the moneys toward the back too.

Let’s say they did defer the money then we will absolutely have to bring some forward and with deals to come for Moore, JDG and Maynard I agree it’s manageable, but it’s likely to set back our timeline on acquiring a FA or piece at the trade table.

I definitely agree that the environment’s changed and that any manager looking to leverage off past mistakes will struggle to gain traction. The point for me though is that the concern around Grundy’s contract is legitimate and justifiable.