List Mgmt. Trade & Draft Discussion 2023 post season - Picks Reid,30,40,49,66 (Bush league)

[Lore]

Hello Eagles fans!

The embedded resources below are kept up to date by the trade board mods (as much as possible – we are human after all). Enjoy!

Spoiler: 2023 Draft Order

Spoiler: 2024 Draft Order, aka Future Picks

Spoiler: Blue Tick Rumours

Keys you may like to sticky this post & move it to the start of the thread (so the sticky post doesn't rotate if a post is deleted before it), or copy it to your draft thread if you have one.

 

[eaglevision]

Leake at 8???
Curtin is around about #15 in a regular draft so I wouldn't bother trading an equal pick(#10 2024) for a slight reach.

There will be a few guys in the 20s that come good but nothing that you can reliably predict.

I'm firmly in the keep future picks intact camp or even trade 23 for a future pick.

Leake at 8 yep. I don’t think he’s the only one that has him there either as he’s the second best utility in the draft. Unless there’s a very clear slider I’m 100% for trading 23 for a late F1 and maybe a 3R this year. That would be excellent business.

 

[Free Agent]

I think we need to change the title.

Something like: Trade & Draft Rehash 2023 post season - Picks 1,23,37,58,81 (* FA/PP)

Let's change it to.

Is it over yet

 

[shooshka]

Let's end the night on a good day shall we



Wtf Gossage is tripling down. Suprised nobody attached that tweet.

If Gossage is right (or even sober when tweeting that) - not convinced he is… that is the clear statement that we really do not want to trade the pick.

You have to for that deal (actually we would have to even with one of 3 or F1st removed), but ask the price they can afford but will never pay.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[The Filth Wizard]

It's where he keeps his accuracy.

 

[dinnaz]

We don't really get Gossage over here... is he a bit of a dork?

A bit like how Bruce Mcavaney still knows nothing about footy despite commentating it for 30 years

 

[dinnaz]

Leake at 8 yep. I don’t think he’s the only one that has him there either as he’s the second best utility in the draft. Unless there’s a very clear slider I’m 100% for trading 23 for a late F1 and maybe a 3R this year. That would be excellent business.

Utility is a name for someone whose not good enough to play in any one position- but has photos of the coaching staff in compromising situations

 

[the big lebowski]

Apparently, the Dude does not abide.

Hey that’s just like his opinion man

 

[Barrybran]

We don't really get Gossage over here... is he a bit of a dork?

Don't tell me you've never witnessed the wonder of The Western Front?

 

[Yeahnahmate]

He mostly comes across as cringey and disingenuous, a proper goose

 

[Barrybran]

A bit like how Bruce Mcavaney still knows nothing about footy despite commentating it for 30 years

Bruce was corny AF for the last 10-15 years but his knowledge on all things sport is incredible

 

[CountryLad]

https://archive.md/Eiw81

Don’t know if this has been posted already.

 

[Coasters7]

Imagine if west coast were holding out for that aha, about time we bend over someone at the trade table been mr nice guys for too long

It’s a ridiculous offer on paper but I hope we’re reminding North how they came about that haul and how much they’re actually sacrificing from their original hand (end of R23).

That offer, whilst being an absolute fantasy from our perspective, is still only 2+McKay+F1+2 freebies that didn’t exist 3 weeks ago.

I know you can’t necessarily use the origins of picks in their value but in this case they were clearly given to North to have a crack at Reid. In which case I would 100% be asking for the whole lot unironically.

 

[Happy Mastenator]

I didn't expect him to have such a tiny head.

He's a massive unit. He's 6"7 from memory.

 

[Obeanie1]

	Total number of picks	Total Points Value of picks	Total points from Priority Picks	Total points from Father-Sons	Total points from Academies	Total points from FA Comp
Brisbane	23	15097	1531	2517	7619	985
GWS	19	13091	0	0	13091	0
Western Bulldogs	10	10640	0	4913	3000	703
Sydney	11	9761	0	1634	7580	547
Melbourne	9	7760	0	1214	0	3351
Collingwood	11	7544	0	5133	1212	0
Gold Coast	12	6370	703	0	2448	3049
Geelong	6	4441	0	0	0	1860
North Melbourne	6	4206	0	1952	1551	0
Port Adelaide	6	3928	677	902	1067	1282
St Kilda	6	3354	0	287	1099	1968
Fremantle	5	3302	0	0	1962	1340
West Coast	7	2773	729	123	446	1475
Essendon	5	2641	0	1962	679	0
Hawthorn	4	2588	0	653	987	948
Richmond	4	2060	0	801	0	653
Carlton	4	1210	0	395	0	0
Adelaide	1	1025	0	1025	0	0

• Looking at all drafts since 2010, draft value index as an imperfect but equitable metric.
• Players drafted from academies, father-son, scholarship, expansion zones, and includes picks where the club elected not to match.
• Players drafted with priority pick, free-agency compensation, & uncontracted player compensation, and includes picks where the club on-traded the pick instead of using it.
• Data from draftguru.com (only as accurate as the source), and includes career games not played at the draft club.
• Doesn't account for the gain/loss of players via free agency & expansion signings, only pick gains.

Spoiler: full data

• Players listed against the entitled club, which did not necessarily draft them if pick was on-traded or bid not matched.
• Career games includes games played for other clubs if traded later in their careers.

Year	Pick	VI	XG	Club	Mechanism	On-traded	Name	Career Games
2010	22	845	77	Western Bulldogs	Father-Son		Mitch Wallis	162
2010	26	729	77	West Coast	Priority Pick		Jack Darling	277
2010	27	703	77	North Melbourne	Uncontracred Player Compo		Kieran Harper	37
2010	41	412	46	Western Bulldogs	Father-Son		Tim Liberatore	216
2010	62	123	10	West Coast	Father-Son		Jacob Brennan	28
2010	104	0	10	Collingwood	Scholarship Promotion (NSW)		Tom Young	28
2011	21	878	77	Sydney	Father-Son		Tom Mitchell	197
2011	27	703	77	Gold Coast	Priority Pick	(on-traded)	Sam Kerridge	69
2011	28	677	77	Port Adelaide	Priority Pick	(on-traded)	Fraser McInnes	14
2011	29	653	77	Brisbane	Priority Pick	(on-traded)	Alex Forster	1
2011	30	629	77	Brisbane	Uncontracred Player Compo		Elliot Yeo	192
2011	62	123	10	Carlton	Father-Son		Dylan Buckley	41
2011	86	0	10	Geelong	Father-Son		Jed Bews	166
2011	88	0	10	Gold Coast	Expansion Zone Selection		Alex Sexton	166
2011	91	0	10	Gold Coast	Expansion Zone Selection		Jackson Allen	4
2012	4	2034	160	Melbourne	Uncontracred Player Compo		Jimmy Toumpas	37
2012	6	1751	160	Western Bulldogs	Uncontracred Player Compo		Jack Macrae	230
2012	10	1395	160	Essendon	Father-Son		Joe Daniher	177
2012	13	1212	77	St Kilda	Free Agency Compensation	(on-traded)	Jesse Lonergan	60
2012	14	1161	77	Melbourne	Uncontracred Player Compo	(on-traded)	Aiden Corr	139
2012	20	912	77	Collingwood	Uncontracred Player Compo		Tim Broomhead	37
2012	23	815	77	Brisbane	Uncontracred Player Compo		Marco Paparone	55
2012	26	729	77	Melbourne	Father-Son		Jack Viney	196
2012	29	653	77	Port Adelaide	Free Agency Compensation		Tom Clurey	124
2012	30	629	77	Port Adelaide	Free Agency Compensation		Mason Shaw	0
2012	31	606	46	Richmond	Uncontracred Player Compo		Kamdyn McIntosh	168
2012	48	302	46	Melbourne	Free Agency Compensation		Dean Kent	100
2012	49	287	46	Western Bulldogs	Father-Son		Lachie Hunter	197
2012	50	273	46	Western Bulldogs	Uncontracred Player Compo		Josh Prudden	4
2012	58	170	10	Gold Coast	Expansion Zone Selection		Clay Cameron	23
2012	60	146	10	West Coast	Free Agency Compensation		Mark Hutchings	120
2012	64	101	10	Sydney	Free Agency Compensation		Matthew Dick	6
2013	8	1551	160	North Melbourne	Father-Son		Luke McDonald	181
2013	9	1469	160	Geelong	Uncontracred Player Compo	(on-traded)	Christian Salem	159
2013	11	1329	77	West Coast	Free Agency Compensation		Dom Sheed	157
2013	19	948	77	Hawthorn	Free Agency Compensation	(on-traded)	Blake Acres	145
2013	20	912	77	Geelong	Free Agency Compensation	(on-traded)	Jack Leslie	28
2013	23	815	77	Melbourne	Free Agency Compensation	(on-traded)	Matt Crouch	143
2013	25	756	77	St Kilda	Free Agency Compensation	(on-traded)	Daniel McStay	175
2013	62	123	10	Brisbane	Expansion Zone Selection		Jonathan Freeman	14
2013	97	0	10	GWS	Expansion Zone Selection		Jake Barrett	23
2014	3	2234	160	Melbourne	Free Agency Compensation		Angus Brayshaw	167
2014	9	1469	160	Collingwood	Father-Son		Darcy Moore	150
2014	15	1112	77	Geelong	Uncontracred Player Compo	(on-traded)	Jarrod Garlett	30
2014	18	985	77	Sydney	Academy - Club		Isaac Heeney	177
2014	21	878	77	Brisbane	Uncontracred Player Compo	(on-traded)	Hugh Goddard	12
2014	24	785	77	GWS	Academy - Club		Jack Steele	158
2014	27	703	77	Western Bulldogs	Free Agency Compensation		Lukas Webb	24
2014	38	465	46	Sydney	Academy - Club		Jack Hiscox	1
2014	39	446	46	Sydney	Free Agency Compensation	(on-traded)	Declan Hamilton	0
2014	42	395	46	Melbourne	Father-Son		Billy Stretch	47
2014	44	362	46	Brisbane	Academy - Club		Liam Dawson	18
2014	49	287	46	Collingwood	Uncontracred Player Compo	(on-traded)	Teia Miles	12
2014	61	135	10	Brisbane	Academy - Club		Harris Andrews	186
2014	62	123	10	Western Bulldogs	Father-Son		Zaine Cordy	132
2014	70	39	10	Sydney	Academy - Club		Abe Davis	0
2014	76	0	10	West Coast	Father-Son		Alec Waterman	22
2014	85	0	10	GWS	Academy - Club		Jeremy Findlayson	108
2014	86	0	10	Brisbane	Father-Son		Josh Clayton	2
2015	3	2234	160	Sydney	Academy - Club		Callum Mills	155
2015	7	1644	160	GWS	Academy - Club		Jacob Hopper	130
2015	13	1212	77	GWS	Academy - Club		Matthew Kennedy	94
2015	14	1161	77	Brisbane	Academy - Club		Eric Hipwood	153
2015	16	1067	77	GWS	Academy - Club		Harry Himmelberg	152
2015	23	815	77	Carlton	Uncontracred Player Compo		David Cuningham	53
2015	24	785	77	Brisbane	Academy - Club		Ben Keays	113
2015	25	756	77	Sydney	Father-Son		Josh Dunkley	140
2015	41	412	46	GWS	Academy - Club		Matthew Flynn	33
2015	43	378	46	Brisbane	Academy - Club		Corey Wagner	28
2015	49	287	46	St Kilda	Father-Son		Bailey Rice	11
2015	53	233	10	Carlton	Father-Son		Jack Silvagni	115
2016	5	1878	160	GWS	Academy - Club		Will Setterfield	67
2016	10	1395	160	Gold Coast	Academy - Club		Jack Bowes	100
2016	14	1161	77	GWS	Academy - Club		Harry Perryman	108
2016	20	912	77	GWS	Academy - Club		Isaac Cumming	75
2016	21	878	77	Brisbane	Priority Pick	(on-traded)	Will Hayward	137
2016	25	756	77	Fremantle	Free Agency Compensation	(on-traded)	Ben Long	94
2016	29	653	77	Richmond	Free Agency Compensation		Shai Bolton	113
2016	34	542	46	Brisbane	Academy - Club	(on-traded)	Declan Watson	0
2016	35	522	46	Collingwood	Father-Son		Callum Brown	70
2016	36	502	46	Gold Coast	Academy - Club	(on-traded)	Josh Williams	2
2016	42	395	46	GWS	Academy - Club	(on-traded)	Kobe Mutch	5
2016	47	316	46	GWS	Academy - Club	(on-traded)	Harrison Macreadie	9
2016	54	220	10	GWS	Academy - Club		Lachie Tiziani	0
2016	55	207	10	Brisbane	Academy - Club	(on-traded)	Jacob Allison	10
2016	57	182	10	Collingwood	Father-Son		Josh Daicos	103
2016	67	69	10	Gold Coast	Academy - Club		Brad Scheer	13
2016	72	19	10	GWS	Academy - Club		Ryan Garthwaite	14
2016	77	0	10	West Coast	Father-Son		Jake Waterman	84
2017	18	985	77	Brisbane	Free Agency Compensation		Brandon Starcevich	97
2017	19	948	77	Geelong	Free Agency Compensation	(on-traded)	Wil Powell	87
2017	34	542	46	Richmond	Father-Son		Patrick Naish	20
2017	43	378	46	Brisbane	Academy - Club		Connor Ballenden	3
2017	50	273	46	Collingwood	Father-Son		Tyler Brown	28
2017	52	246	10	Gold Coast	Academy - Club		Brayden Crossley	10
2017	55	207	10	Gold Coast	Academy - Club		Connor Nutting	0
2017	64	101	10	GWS	Academy - Club		Nick Shipley	6
2018	3	2234	160	Gold Coast	Free Agency Compensation		Izak Rankine	68
2018	8	1551	160	North Melbourne	Academy - Club		Tarryn Thomas	69
2018	10	1395	160	Sydney	Academy - Club		Nick Blakey	102
2018	13	1212	77	Collingwood	Academy - Club		Isaac Quaynor	85
2018	23	815	77	Gold Coast	Free Agency Compensation		Jez McLennan	0
2018	26	729	77	Western Bulldogs	Father-Son		Rhylee West	37
2018	29	653	77	Collingwood	Father-Son		Will Kelly	5
2018	32	584	46	Fremantle	Free Agency Compensation		Luke Valente	0
2018	38	465	46	Hawthorn	Academy - Club		Irving Mosquito	4
2018	39	446	46	West Coast	Academy - Club		Jarrod Cameron	12
2018	42	395	46	Brisbane	Academy - Club		Connor McFadyen	0
2018	63	112	10	GWS	Academy - Club		Mathew Walker	0
2018	69	49	10	North Melbourne	Father-Son		Joel Crocker	0
2018	70	39	10	Carlton	Father-Son		Ben Silvagni	0
2018	71	29	10	Gold Coast	Academy - Club		Caleb Graham	37
2018	74	0	10	Geelong	Father-Son		Oscar Brownless	0
2018	75	0	10	Melbourne	Academy - Club		Toby Bedford	37
2018	77	0	10	Collingwood	Academy - Club		Atu Bosenavulagi	20
2019	9	1469	160	Fremantle	Academy - Club		Liam Henry	43
2019	10	1395	160	GWS	Academy - Club		Tom Green	67
2019	25	756	77	Port Adelaide	Father-Son		Jackson Mead	18
2019	29	653	77	Hawthorn	Father-Son		Finn Maginness	32
2019	37	483	46	Brisbane	Academy - Club		Kaidean Coleman	64
2019	43	378	46	Brisbane	Academy - Club		Noah Cumberland	18
2019	44	362	46	Brisbane	Academy - Club		Will Martyn	3
2019	54	220	10	St Kilda	Academy - Club	(on-traded)	Bigoa Nyuon	1
2020	1	3000	160	Western Bulldogs	Academy - Club		Jamarra Ugle-Hagan	45
2020	5	1878	160	Sydney	Academy - Club		Braeden Campbell	48
2020	16	1067	77	Port Adelaide	Academy - Club		Lachie Jones	35
2020	24	785	77	Brisbane	Academy - Club		Blake Coleman	0
2020	32	584	46	Sydney	Academy - Club		Errol Gulden	67
2020	35	522	46	Hawthorn	Academy - Club		Connor Downie	2
2020	39	446	46	Essendon	Academy - Club		Josh Eyre	0
2020	50	273	46	Fremantle	Academy - Club		Brandon Walker	45
2020	51	259	10	Richmond	Father-Son		Maurice Rioli Jr	27
2020	53	233	10	Essendon	Academy - Club		Cody Brand	0
2020	54	220	10	Fremantle	Academy - Club		Joel Western	4
2021	2	2517	160	Western Bulldogs	Father-Son		Sam Darcy	7
2021	4	2034	160	Collingwood	Father-Son		Nick Daicos	47
2021	33	563	46	St Kilda	Academy - Club		Mitch Owens	30
2021	42	395	46	GWS	Academy - Club		Josh Fahey	7
2021	47	316	46	St Kilda	Academy - Club		Marcus Windhager	37
2021	59	158	10	North Melbourne	Father-Son		Jackson Archer	8
2021	60	146	10	Port Adelaide	Father-Son		Jase Burgoyne	13
2021	65	90	10	Melbourne	Father-Son		Taj Woewodin	4
2022	2	2517	160	Brisbane	Father-Son		Will Ashcroft	18
2022	12	1268	77	Brisbane	Academy - Club		Jaspa Fletcher	14
2022	16	1067	77	GWS	Academy - Club		Harry Rowston	7
2022	17	1025	77	Adelaide	Father-Son		Max Michalanney	22
2022	45	347	46	Essendon	Father-Son		Alwyn Davey Jr	10
2022	54	220	10	Essendon	Father-Son		Jayden Davey	0
2022	56	194	10	North Melbourne	Father-Son		Cooper Harvey	3

Interesting data posted by Lore in the Academies thread.

Would like to disregard FA compo and academy players that went elsewhere.

Certainly paints a picture of "interesting" management from AFL House over the past 13 drafts.

What a surprise. The teams that benefited most are contending. The ones that benefited the least are not.

 

[Barrybran]

Interesting data posted by Lore in the Academies thread.

Would like to disregard FA compo and academy players that went elsewhere.

Certainly paints a picture of "interesting" management from AFL House over the past 13 drafts.

What a surprise. The teams that benefited most are contending. The ones that benefited the least are not.

This should really include all picks over the same period, including a value of picks on ladder position. There is a place for father-sons and academies but the discount provodes an unfair advantage. Arguably everyone's turn will come on that front but if Collingwood had to pay full price for Daicos, for example, their depth might be tested by having to fill out their list with players drafted in the 50s.

 

[Lore]

Interesting data posted by Lore in the Academies thread.

Would like to disregard FA compo and academy players that went elsewhere.

Certainly paints a picture of "interesting" management from AFL House over the past 13 drafts.

What a surprise. The teams that benefited most are contending. The ones that benefited the least are not.

The thing that hasn't been mentioned is that Richmond is down the bottom of that ladder, but they've been a big beneficiary of GWS and GC players that request trades back to Melbourne. Collingwood got Bobby Hill and eventually Tom Mitchell. Essendon got Dylan Shiel. Carlton had a dozen or more but I think most have been delisted since then. Geelong got Cameron and Bruhn... so forth.

The Dogs are underperforming on the basis of this metric, but it's probably because Libba and Wallis are older now, and they were never Daicos and Moore.

And the Lions have a crap-ton of points for players that they didn't actually end up drafting, there was a priority pick that they on-traded as well.

And on the other hand there's the fact that it's all relative too. Someone getting a benefit somewhere doesn't come out of thin air. If they're not giving up the full value in nearby picks to match it, thereby equalising the benefit against their own losses, then someone else is paying the price, which is usually everyone below them gets pushed back a spot, so you're all losing a handful of points. If I knew of an easy way to calculate that I would.

And then you've also got the Whitfield saga, the Tippett saga and the Essendon saga which impacted the drafts for those three clubs in the form of penalties and replacement picks (which I didn't include here for neatness, but Essendon lost two years of picks and got back an end-of-first and end-of-second in 2014; Whitfield was a 1000 point penalty, and Tippett they voluntarily gave up their first two picks iirc).

So priority picks where there is no 'bid matching' fall into that category as well as free agency picks (although with free agency you're obviously losing a great player to get a good pick).

There's a lot of nuance to it.

But as far as West Coast is concerned, it's not great. I think the thing that gets missed a little bit with WA and SA clubs is that Victorian clubs don't necessarily have thorough scouting of those competitions, so it's probably a bit easier for a good prospect to slide somewhat. Doesn't help you in the top 10 but makes the middle of the draft a bit more fruitful (which a lot of people massively undervalue – a big part of Essendon's problem with Dodoro is that he can't find a good pick in the middle of the draft, which means our roleplayer/depth part of the list is garbage and the best players we have are like a Ferrari trying to tow a B-double).

And with the go-home factor there will be clubs that choose not to draft kids that they think are a flight risk... like North wouldn't draft them, but on the other hand, Geelong might. So can slide a bit from that as well.

There's heaps to unpack here but they're a bit busy arguing about whether JUH was ever in Geelong's academy to notice that there's actually something interesting to talk about.

 

[Lore]

This should really include all picks over the same period, including a value of picks on ladder position. There is a place for father-sons and academies but the discount provodes an unfair advantage. Arguably everyone's turn will come on that front but if Collingwood had to pay full price for Daicos, for example, their depth might be tested by having to fill out their list with players drafted in the 50s.

Will do that when I find a few spare minutes – It's actually not that hard to do though. IMPORTHTML on the appropriate pages and then VLOOKUP and SUMPRODUCT

 

[Barrybran]

The thing that hasn't been mentioned is that Richmond is down the bottom of that ladder, but they've been a big beneficiary of GWS and GC players that request trades back to Melbourne. Collingwood got Bobby Hill and eventually Tom Mitchell. Essendon got Dylan Shiel. Carlton had a dozen or more but I think most have been delisted since then. Geelong got Cameron and Bruhn... so forth.

The Dogs are underperforming on the basis of this metric, but it's probably because Libba and Wallis are older now, and they were never Daicos and Moore.

And the Lions have a crap-ton of points for players that they didn't actually end up drafting, there was a priority pick that they on-traded as well.

And on the other hand there's the fact that it's all relative too. Someone getting a benefit somewhere doesn't come out of thin air. If they're not giving up the full value in nearby picks to match it, thereby equalising the benefit against their own losses, then someone else is paying the price, which is usually everyone below them gets pushed back a spot, so you're all losing a handful of points. If I knew of an easy way to calculate that I would.

And then you've also got the Whitfield saga, the Tippett saga and the Essendon saga which impacted the drafts for those three clubs in the form of penalties and replacement picks (which I didn't include here for neatness, but Essendon lost two years of picks and got back an end-of-first and end-of-second in 2014; Whitfield was a 1000 point penalty, and Tippett they voluntarily gave up their first two picks iirc).

So priority picks where there is no 'bid matching' fall into that category as well as free agency picks (although with free agency you're obviously losing a great player to get a good pick).

There's a lot of nuance to it.

But as far as West Coast is concerned, it's not great. I think the thing that gets missed a little bit with WA and SA clubs is that Victorian clubs don't necessarily have thorough scouting of those competitions, so it's probably a bit easier for a good prospect to slide somewhat. Doesn't help you in the top 10 but makes the middle of the draft a bit more fruitful (which a lot of people massively undervalue – a big part of Essendon's problem with Dodoro is that he can't find a good pick in the middle of the draft, which means our roleplayer/depth part of the list is garbage and the best players we have are like a Ferrari trying to tow a B-double).

And with the go-home factor there will be clubs that choose not to draft kids that they think are a flight risk... like North wouldn't draft them, but on the other hand, Geelong might. So can slide a bit from that as well.

There's heaps to unpack here but they're a bit busy arguing about whether JUH was ever in Geelong's academy to notice that there's actually something interesting to talk about.

It's refreshing to hear from Victorians that live above the bridge

 

[Lore]

It's refreshing to hear from Victorians that live above the bridge

There are some benefits to building a trade board team that is about 50% interstate mods.

It's just as refreshing to hear from an interstater that doesn't lump us all in together

 

[CountryLad]

The thing that hasn't been mentioned is that Richmond is down the bottom of that ladder, but they've been a big beneficiary of GWS and GC players that request trades back to Melbourne. Collingwood got Bobby Hill and eventually Tom Mitchell. Essendon got Dylan Shiel. Carlton had a dozen or more but I think most have been delisted since then. Geelong got Cameron and Bruhn... so forth.

The Dogs are underperforming on the basis of this metric, but it's probably because Libba and Wallis are older now, and they were never Daicos and Moore.

And the Lions have a crap-ton of points for players that they didn't actually end up drafting, there was a priority pick that they on-traded as well.

And on the other hand there's the fact that it's all relative too. Someone getting a benefit somewhere doesn't come out of thin air. If they're not giving up the full value in nearby picks to match it, thereby equalising the benefit against their own losses, then someone else is paying the price, which is usually everyone below them gets pushed back a spot, so you're all losing a handful of points. If I knew of an easy way to calculate that I would.

And then you've also got the Whitfield saga, the Tippett saga and the Essendon saga which impacted the drafts for those three clubs in the form of penalties and replacement picks (which I didn't include here for neatness, but Essendon lost two years of picks and got back an end-of-first and end-of-second in 2014; Whitfield was a 1000 point penalty, and Tippett they voluntarily gave up their first two picks iirc).

So priority picks where there is no 'bid matching' fall into that category as well as free agency picks (although with free agency you're obviously losing a great player to get a good pick).

There's a lot of nuance to it.

But as far as West Coast is concerned, it's not great. I think the thing that gets missed a little bit with WA and SA clubs is that Victorian clubs don't necessarily have thorough scouting of those competitions, so it's probably a bit easier for a good prospect to slide somewhat. Doesn't help you in the top 10 but makes the middle of the draft a bit more fruitful (which a lot of people massively undervalue – a big part of Essendon's problem with Dodoro is that he can't find a good pick in the middle of the draft, which means our roleplayer/depth part of the list is garbage and the best players we have are like a Ferrari trying to tow a B-double).

And with the go-home factor there will be clubs that choose not to draft kids that they think are a flight risk... like North wouldn't draft them, but on the other hand, Geelong might. So can slide a bit from that as well.

There's heaps to unpack here but they're a bit busy arguing about whether JUH was ever in Geelong's academy to notice that there's actually something interesting to talk about.

Nth will make a charge up that board after this years draft. Did you leave the PP picks they received last year and traded to Freo out for a reason?

 

[Obeanie1]

You seriously think they would leave Rebecca's busom to move West?

Always remembered her as being a tad.......well........flat chested!

 

[MeltMan]

I think hes like 6'5. i saw him once or twice when i went to the footy as a yungin when family did the champion data stuff.

Maybe its a normal sized head.
Just a big boi.

 

[MeltMan]

He's a massive unit. He's 6"7 from memory.

Beat me too it

 

[CountryLad]

Interesting data posted by Lore in the Academies thread.

Would like to disregard FA compo and academy players that went elsewhere.

Certainly paints a picture of "interesting" management from AFL House over the past 13 drafts.

What a surprise. The teams that benefited most are contending. The ones that benefited the least are not.

It’s not compromised it’s just “complex”

 

[Obeanie1]

He might do a Chesser.

Nah.

Harley will fly in.

And the fans will be waiting.