List Mgmt. Trade & Draft Discussion 2023 post season - Picks Reid,30,40,49,66 (Bush league)

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eaglevision said:

Of note and some surprises:
8-Leake (not for us but very high)
9-Curtin (GWS who don’t need a KPD)
13-Windsor
15-Green (not for us but very high)
19-Murphy
21-Edwards
25-Schoenmaker
26-DeMattia

It’s not Twomey but anyone got some imaginative trades if this is how it falls?
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I’ve said before that I could see Curtin sliding to around pick 10. So much of his hype has been tied up in VIC media wanting WC to split 1 and clutching at the best WA talent.

In an uncompromised draft our pick 19 and F2 with some later picks might get us close to the mark, but pick 29 isn’t going close. I don’t love the idea of splitting F1 yet, but if we were able to maintain a likely top 10 pick next year, in a deeper and more even draft then we could still get another good mid next year and Curtin.

DeMattia would also be a good get, particularly coming across as a Vic Country stable pony for HR.
 
CountryLad said:
Nth will make a charge up that board after this years draft. Did you leave the PP picks they received last year and traded to Freo out for a reason?
Click to expand...

The data is 2010 - 2022 inclusive using draft guru. Those priority picks were future picks for 2023, which isn't done yet, we don't have academy bidding data either because the draft hasn’t happened yet.
 

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Peptide Pig said:
I’ve said before that I could see Curtin sliding to around pick 10. So much of his hype has been tied up in VIC media wanting WC to split 1 and clutching at the best WA talent.

In an uncompromised draft our pick 19 and F2 with some later picks might get us close to the mark, but pick 29 isn’t going close. I don’t love the idea of splitting F1 yet, but if we were able to maintain a likely top 10 pick next year, in a deeper and more even draft then we could still get another good mid next year and Curtin.

DeMattia would also be a good get, particularly coming across as a Vic Country stable pony for HR.
Click to expand...

I know he played for and captained Vic Country, and I believe he and HR are good mates - but I do like to chuckle at the insinuation that a ‘country kid’ from the small rural enclave of ‘Edithvale or Aspendale’ will help us overcome the Melbourne metro mummies boys go home factor.

Especially present in those bayside mummies boys from the Sandringham area/region.

(As context, Edithvale is the same distance from Sandringham as it is from Dandenong where DeMattia played).


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Bestbird said:
Had a good laugh at the time with that corporate double speak. The lady was just spouting a lot of word salad for most of the interview which is pretty disappointing.
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The issue is that the right question was asked but the answer was disappointing and no follow up questions asked to clarify.
Find that a lot in the AFL that the media only dig as far as they want or in many cases are allowed.
Tomorrow SEN are interviewing Pert and Goodwin in a 45 min interview hosted by……. Yes you guessed it Garry Lyon.
 
Lore said:
The thing that hasn't been mentioned is that Richmond is down the bottom of that ladder, but they've been a big beneficiary of GWS and GC players that request trades back to Melbourne. Collingwood got Bobby Hill and eventually Tom Mitchell. Essendon got Dylan Shiel. Carlton had a dozen or more but I think most have been delisted since then. Geelong got Cameron and Bruhn... so forth.

The Dogs are underperforming on the basis of this metric, but it's probably because Libba and Wallis are older now, and they were never Daicos and Moore.

And the Lions have a crap-ton of points for players that they didn't actually end up drafting, there was a priority pick that they on-traded as well.

And on the other hand there's the fact that it's all relative too. Someone getting a benefit somewhere doesn't come out of thin air. If they're not giving up the full value in nearby picks to match it, thereby equalising the benefit against their own losses, then someone else is paying the price, which is usually everyone below them gets pushed back a spot, so you're all losing a handful of points. If I knew of an easy way to calculate that I would.

And then you've also got the Whitfield saga, the Tippett saga and the Essendon saga which impacted the drafts for those three clubs in the form of penalties and replacement picks (which I didn't include here for neatness, but Essendon lost two years of picks and got back an end-of-first and end-of-second in 2014; Whitfield was a 1000 point penalty, and Tippett they voluntarily gave up their first two picks iirc).

So priority picks where there is no 'bid matching' fall into that category as well as free agency picks (although with free agency you're obviously losing a great player to get a good pick).

There's a lot of nuance to it.

But as far as West Coast is concerned, it's not great. I think the thing that gets missed a little bit with WA and SA clubs is that Victorian clubs don't necessarily have thorough scouting of those competitions, so it's probably a bit easier for a good prospect to slide somewhat. Doesn't help you in the top 10 but makes the middle of the draft a bit more fruitful (which a lot of people massively undervalue – a big part of Essendon's problem with Dodoro is that he can't find a good pick in the middle of the draft, which means our roleplayer/depth part of the list is garbage and the best players we have are like a Ferrari trying to tow a B-double).

And with the go-home factor there will be clubs that choose not to draft kids that they think are a flight risk... like North wouldn't draft them, but on the other hand, Geelong might. So can slide a bit from that as well.

There's heaps to unpack here 🤣 but they're a bit busy arguing about whether JUH was ever in Geelong's academy to notice that there's actually something interesting to talk about.
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Was the 20% discount taken into account?
 
TiAn_ said:
Mitch seems to be going pretty well at volleyball. Which he got into after not getting a footy scholarship like Jordan. Shame, as he’s allegedly the taller brother, 203-4cm apparently. Never say never I suppose, but there’s nothing to suggest he’ll swap volleyball for footy any time soon. Will just be stoked if Jordan makes the grade, we need another young KPD coming through.
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Here's the thing, volleyball pays **** all. You can sign him as a cat b at 400k a year without it impacting your salary cap. It's potentially on the cards. A large part of my interview with Jordan centred around his family and if he could see a future where he plays footy with his brother again. It seemed like a very distinct possibility.

Can focus on volleyball, potentially play for Australia at the Paris olympics and then switch over to footy for the start of preseason next year.
 
I would be happy to trade our future 2nd and future 3rd for a top 20 pick this year .

If we are shit again next season which is more than likely the afl will give us those picks back anyway in some form or another like they did with norf when they were shit and had no picks .
 

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Get_The_Gaff said:
I would be happy to trade our future 2nd and future 3rd for a top 20 pick this year .

If we are s**t again next season which is more than likely the afl will give us those picks back anyway in some form or another like they did with norf when they were s**t and had no picks .
Click to expand...
Reckon the Crows pick 20 would be okay and fair. Crows looking for points for next year to get Welsh.
We could package up our Future 2nd and pick 58 which probably comes in 10 or more spots after all the bids are done in this draft. Gets the Crows in a spot in the draft for some of the SA boys and banks a good future pick.
 
WCE_phil said:
Here's the thing, volleyball pays * all. You can sign him as a cat b at 400k a year without it impacting your salary cap. It's potentially on the cards. A large part of my interview with Jordan centred around his family and if he could see a future where he plays footy with his brother again. It seemed like a very distinct possibility.

Can focus on volleyball, potentially play for Australia at the Paris olympics and then switch over to footy for the start of preseason next year.
Click to expand...
What are your thoughts on some of the general defenders in the draft Phil?
Leake, Hardeman, Roberts, Schoenmaker and Hastie?

Wouldn’t mind one of them to add to our list. Any standouts amongst them?
 
UseR2006 said:
Click to expand...


I really can’t see GWS taking Curtin. They are about to pay (noted he is getting old in AFL terms) Haynes $1m+ to play reserves next year. He is still a good player but can’t get into their side.

Geelong would take Curtin though for sure.

‘If’ Curtin got through to the GWS pick then the much discussed F1st trade with Adelaide might be an option. Then we would have to pay a premium to go from 10 to 7 (those are current positions… probably 12/9 or similar after bids). F2nd maybe

Curtin (assuming we are as keen on him as a top 3ish talent as the media says we are… I’m not convinced but let’s play along) and 14 plus Adelaide’s F1st, costing us F1st and F2nd.

Maybe. We would want to really rate Curtin though… TBH with Murphy sliding in a few mocks we may just be better trying to upgrade 23 to a pick to nab him.


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shooshka said:
I really can’t see GWS taking Curtin. They are about to pay (noted he is getting old in AFL terms) Haynes $1m+ to play reserves next year. He is still a good player but can’t get into their side.

Geelong would take Curtin though for sure.

‘If’ Curtin got through to the GWS pick then the much discussed F1st trade with Adelaide might be an option. Then we would have to pay a premium to go from 10 to 7 (those are current positions… probably 12/9 or similar after bids). F2nd maybe

Curtin (assuming we are as keen on him as a top 3ish talent as the media says we are… I’m not convinced but let’s play along) and 14 plus Adelaide’s F1st, costing us F1st and F2nd.

Maybe. We would want to really rate Curtin though… TBH with Murphy sliding in a few mocks we may just be better trying to upgrade 23 to a pick to nab him.


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Click to expand...
I reckon the club will be looking at Zz. He’s gettable with the picks we currently hold and physically/athletically is the best of the bunch.

He just doesn’t have the kicking skills that Curtin and O’Sulllivan have but the Eagles may back him in to be able to improve in that area.
 
Get_The_Gaff said:
I would be happy to trade our future 2nd and future 3rd for a top 20 pick this year .

If we are s**t again next season which is more than likely the afl will give us those picks back anyway in some form or another like they did with norf when they were s**t and had no picks .
Click to expand...

Possible trades :

Adelaide - Our F2 and F4 for pick 20(25)

Carlton - Our F2 for pick 22(27)

Collingwood - Our F2 and F3 for pick 19(24) and their F3

GWS - Our F2 and 37 for pick 16(21)

(Where the pick will likely be on draft night)

Now if our pick 23(28) is the first pick on night 2 (which is yet to be confirmed) by doing one of those trades on night 1 it gives us a bit more flexibility looking at offers for that first pick on night 2
 
Keys said:
Possible trades :

Adelaide - Our F2 and F4 for pick 20(25)

Carlton - Our F2 for pick 22(27)

Collingwood - Our F2 and F3 for pick 19(24) and their F3

GWS - Our F2 and 37 for pick 16(21)

(Where the pick will likely be on draft night)

Now if our pick 23(28) is the first pick on night 2 (which is yet to be confirmed) by doing one of those trades on night 1 it gives us a bit more flexibility looking at offers for that first pick on night 2
Click to expand...
Why would we trade out the first pick on night 2 after spending F2 etc to move into a pick higher than that by a few slots?

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shooshka said:
I really can’t see GWS taking Curtin. They are about to pay (noted he is getting old in AFL terms) Haynes $1m+ to play reserves next year. He is still a good player but can’t get into their side.

Geelong would take Curtin though for sure.

‘If’ Curtin got through to the GWS pick then the much discussed F1st trade with Adelaide might be an option. Then we would have to pay a premium to go from 10 to 7 (those are current positions… probably 12/9 or similar after bids). F2nd maybe

Curtin (assuming we are as keen on him as a top 3ish talent as the media says we are… I’m not convinced but let’s play along) and 14 plus Adelaide’s F1st, costing us F1st and F2nd.

Maybe. We would want to really rate Curtin though… TBH with Murphy sliding in a few mocks we may just be better trying to upgrade 23 to a pick to nab him.


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Don’t see Curtin getting past Melbourne if he gets past Norf, they really should trade 3 (Duursma) for 6 (Curtin) and 11 (Murphy/Windsor). We should be trying to deal with Melb, not GWS if we are set on Curtin. If we don’t mind O’Sullivan then GWS ok but we don’t need Adelaide the trade would be:

GWS
WCE IN: 7, 16, F1
WCE OUT: F1

With maybe some 3R/4R pick swaps but I think the above is fair.

I’d rather do the Adelaide trade, miss Curtin but likely pick up a whole heap of players who fit a list need which I’ve been through ad nauseam.
 
eaglevision said:
Don’t see Curtin getting past Melbourne if he gets past Norf, they really should trade 3 (Duursma) for 6 (Curtin) and 11 (Murphy/Windsor). We should be trying to deal with Melb, not GWS if we are set on Curtin. If we don’t mind O’Sullivan then GWS ok but we don’t need Adelaide the trade would be:

GWS
WCE IN: 7, 16, F1
WCE OUT: F1

With maybe some 3R/4R pick swaps but I think the above is fair.

I’d rather do the Adelaide trade, miss Curtin but likely pick up a whole heap of players who fit a list need which I’ve been through ad nauseam.
Click to expand...
I was talking to Curtin’s coach again, says Norf are really keen based on his conversations with them and with what Dan himself has said (as per Pants’ intel), but the coach mentioned the Hawks are also keen on Curtin too which was a surprise to me.

He also reiterated other things that we already knew, in that the Eagles do genuinely like Curtin (just not at pick 1), and may be tempted into a trade, but they would only do it for (basically) pick 2 and 3 to guarantee McK and Curtin, as the Eagles aren’t prepared to risk trading down if they aren’t certain to get those two specific players. Even pick 2 and 6 wouldn’t do it for the Eagles if they did a three way with Norf and Melbourne.

Long story short, only pick 2 and 3 (McK and Curtin) will satisfy the Eagles for pick 1. I doubt Norf would realistically offer that anyway.

For me, JTR.
 
CountryLad said:
What are your thoughts on some of the general defenders in the draft Phil?
Leake, Hardeman, Roberts, Schoenmaker and Hastie?

Wouldn’t mind one of them to add to our list. Any standouts amongst them?
Click to expand...

Depends where on the draft. I like Roberts for a pick around 25 (I have him at 14 on my board), Patton or Logan Evans for a third rounder as I think they are quality players and undervalued.

I think Hardeman will be a good player but not a great player. He does a lot well but I don't see any exceptional abilities. I think his peak is around Duggan level.

Schoenmaker I like his kicking and his running but he has a few red flags in other areas of his game.

Hastie I think could be a real riser and may fall before we get a second pick.
 
Wooshaaaa said:
Why would we trade out the first pick on night 2 after spending F2 etc to move into a pick higher than that by a few slots?

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Click to expand...

Didn’t say we would, just that it gives us flexibility and it would depend on why we traded up in the first place -presumably it would be because there was someone available at that earlier pick we didn’t think would last until our pick

So a hypothetical using the Collingwood trade I proposed

Let’s say someone like Tholstrup or DeMattia slides and is still on the board at Collingwood’s pick 24 and we’re keen. We trade our F2 and swap F3s to get their pick 24 because we don’t think they’ll get through to what will be our pick 28. So we trade up

Then say Essendon are keen on a slider of their own, say Archer Reid, and offer us their F2 to move up from what is 31 (about 33 on the night) for our 23(28) and Collingwood’s F3. The player we had earmarked with our pick (say Zakostelsky) we’re confident will still be there at Essendon’s pick so we do the trade

We get the same player (Zakostelsky) that we would have got had we done nothing and we still have pick 37 as our 4th pick on the night. Because we decide not to use a 5th pick we trade 58 (likely to be about 48) to Geelong for their F3

End result is we get the same 3 players (Reid, Zakostelsky and whoever we like at 37) we would have had we done nothing

But instead of having to pick a 4th player with a pick in the late 40’s we get someone we liked earlier (Tholstrup or DeMattia in my example) at a cost of swapping our F2 for Essendons and our F3 for Geelongs

Now the players names can change if you prefer different ones in the above hypothetical and what we do would depend on how the draft plays out

But TLDR, we trade up on night 1 for a sliding player we like using our F2 and then trade down on night 2 in the belief we can still get the same player (or an equivalent) to mitigate the cost of trading up the night before
 
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