List Mgmt. Trade & Draft Discussion 2023 post season - Picks Reid,30,40,49,66 (Bush league)

[Lore]

Hello Eagles fans!

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Spoiler: 2023 Draft Order

Spoiler: 2024 Draft Order, aka Future Picks

Spoiler: Blue Tick Rumours

Keys you may like to sticky this post & move it to the start of the thread (so the sticky post doesn't rotate if a post is deleted before it), or copy it to your draft thread if you have one.

 

[Schtinker]

1. That’s not what he said at all, re the bolded.

2. Our recruiters and list manager have basically said the same in club podcasts and interviews.

Father Son and Academy kids aren’t available to every club. They are basically outside the talent pool and only available to their parent club.

So clubs put together a draft board without any of the club tied kids, because that’s the list is every club is picking from.

So if you have pick 3, and Duursma is rated as your 3rd kid, behind Reid and McKercher, it doesn’t matter the team with pick 2 bids on Walter, which pushes you down to pick 4, because they then draft McKercher at pick 3, and you now draft Duursma at pick 4.


Now clubs will write in, in a different colour, where they might rate the club tied kids, or where they think they might be bid on, but those kids don’t affect the draft order.

What does affect the draft order, are teams trading up for Gold Coasts pick 4, because instead of Gold Coast being made to match a bid with pick 4, thus the pick being used to match their academy player, another team now has pick 4, and will use it to pick who ever they want.

This impacts all the clubs behind them, especially early on, where supposed tiers of talent seperate.

So Riley Thilthorpe should get the $10k for being the 1st player picked in the 2020 draft as JUHs bid doesn't count as a pick?

 

[Yippy Yi Yeo]

Reid's tank is too big a concern for a consensus pick 1.

So trade 1 for 2 and 3 and just take Mckercher and Curtin

Nope

 

[Coasters7]

Pick 10 or pick 15, in this discussion it’s exactly the same kid available at each selection, if the 5 kids pushing it back are all Father Son or Academy kids.

If the pick is being pushed back by 1 compensation pick, then you absolutely factor that in.

But West Coast should only be trading pick 1 after the player trade period has ended, because the draft order won’t be compromised any further after the player trade period has ended.

It’s important to note, if you don’t know the rules, that picks can continue to be traded up until 1 week before the draft. Then on draft night, once pick 1 is on the clock, clubs can live trade picks during the draft.

It’s still the 15th best player though. Doesn’t matter so much when it gets to your pick I guess but it absolutely affects trade values both now and on the night.

Say if we’re trading pick 1 for the North trade that’s been floated for instance (2, 14 and 19). That’s the 2nd best then potentially the 20th and 27th best kids from this draft in exchange for the best one.

Makes the trade look diabolical even if those players were never realistically available to you at any point.

 

[BG__]

If we take Reid and a few years down the track he ends up being a bust, I can live with it. If we split the pick and they bust while Reid becomes a gun, I’d be pretty annoyed.

Just take Reid.

 

[eaglespremiers]

Jesus mate, the song you quoted is named "Ironic"....

Yeah, but it isn't ironically.

 

[Patron]

It’s still the 15th best player though. Doesn’t matter so much when it gets to your pick I guess but it absolutely affects trade values both now and on the night.

Say if we’re trading pick 1 for the North trade that’s been floated for instance (2, 14 and 19). That’s the 2nd best then potentially the 20th and 27th best kids from this draft in exchange for the best one.

Makes the trade look diabolical even if those players were never realistically available to you at any point.

Third best. I’m only reinforcing your point but Walter will jump up with him and Reid being the top 2.


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[bzparkes]

Yeah, but it isn't ironically.

 

[Tugga27]

How are WCE under pressure?

Literally don't even have to do anything.

He's talking about the possible splitting of pick 1, and if we stuff it up by
either taking it or not, depending on the outcome.

Always out to get us though.

No mention of Hinkley being under the pump with Port going out in straights I see.

 

[Bender_]

We were hoping to recruit Daven Rubinson to wallpaper of the cracks in Reid's endurance levels. But now we've missed out on Dev we've got no choice but to rethink our draft strategy and trade down with North to ensure we get Curtin at the right pick (not 1). If we don't we run the risk of trying to call their bluff and having to take Curtin with pick 1, which would be a complete waste coz pick 1 could be anything, even Curtin!

 

[ArdentEagle]

Should check out Riley Weatherill.
The quiet achiever of the Talent League, and taller than Morris too.

Well...I don't recall asking about the weather but 3 times, 3 ****ing times, he's been suggested by 3 different folks, all of high to elite standing. I probably should start paying attention.

 

[briztoon]

It’s still the 15th best player though. Doesn’t matter so much when it gets to your pick I guess but it absolutely affects trade values both now and on the night.

“Value” only counts for bid matching and points.

Say if we’re trading pick 1 for the North trade that’s been floated for instance (2, 14 and 19). That’s the 2nd best then potentially the 20th and 27th best kids from this draft in exchange for the best one.

Don’t make the trade then.

But by the same token, your pick 34 is going to be the 42nd best kid in the draft.

Good news is your pick 41 will probably move up to pick 35, getting you the 43rd best kid in the draft.

Makes the trade look diabolical even if those players were never realistically available to you at any point.

So you’re worried about the optics of the trade, rather than the reality, which is by moving your first back 1 spot, you second pick is now 14 instead of 20, and your third pick is now 19 instead of 34, and you’ve added an extra first round pick in 2024.


Just in case you haven’t already read or heard it, next years draft is choc-a-block with first round father son talent (to Carlton, Brisbane, Adelaide & Port), and maybe two or three northern academy kids.

But the 2025 draft is going to blow your gasket, as this year’s U16 All Australian team included 11 Northern Academy kids (plus 2 Tassie kids, and we might be at the prelisting stage by then).

 

[tigger_ferret]

1. That’s not what he said at all, re the bolded.

2. Our recruiters and list manager have basically said the same in club podcasts and interviews.

Father Son and Academy kids aren’t available to every club. They are basically outside the talent pool and only available to their parent club.

So clubs put together a draft board without any of the club tied kids, because that’s the list is every club is picking from.

So if you have pick 3, and Duursma is rated as your 3rd kid, behind Reid and McKercher, it doesn’t matter the team with pick 2 bids on Walter, which pushes you down to pick 4, because they then draft McKercher at pick 3, and you now draft Duursma at pick 4.


Now clubs will write in, in a different colour, where they might rate the club tied kids, or where they think they might be bid on, but those kids don’t affect the draft order.

What does affect the draft order, are teams trading up for Gold Coasts pick 4, because instead of Gold Coast being made to match a bid with pick 4, thus the pick being used to match their academy player, another team now has pick 4, and will use it to pick who ever they want.

This impacts all the clubs behind them, especially early on, where supposed tiers of talent seperate.

How I would expect recruiters to operate, is they create a grading of every single player in the draft ( including NGA / FS) and then rank every single player. They need to grade and rank NGA /FS so they can have an idea of how the draft may play out and when bids may occur or if they want to bid and possibly draft them.

I think they should disregard the pick number discussed in any trade and instead be looking at what grade players likely available at said pick would be.

For people on here to say pick 19 becomes 26, may not be exactly how recruiters look at the value of picks, but it is a simplistic way to assess the situation, which should give similar results and a way to compare to past drafts (even though all drafts are different).

 

[MeltMan]

View attachment 1824214

I hope we find a Grey to draft next year.
Can take a clip from her twitch streams.
... no i didn't say anything? Are you hearing things.

 

[JADED]

“Value” only counts for bid matching and points.

Don’t make the trade then.

But by the same token, your pick 34 is going to be the 42nd best kid in the draft.

Good news is your pick 41 will probably move up to pick 35, getting you the 43rd best kid in the draft.

So you’re worried about the optics of the trade, rather than the reality, which is by moving your first back 1 spot, you second pick is now 14 instead of 20, and your third pick is now 19 instead of 34, and you’ve added an extra first round pick in 2024.


Just in case you haven’t already read or heard it, next years draft is choc-a-block with first round father son talent (to Carlton, Brisbane, Adelaide & Port), and maybe two or three northern academy kids.

But the 2025 draft is going to blow your gasket, as this year’s U16 All Australian team included 11 Northern Academy kids (plus 2 Tassie kids, and we might be at the prelisting stage by then).

Obviously most of the talk is about adding a second Ashcroft, but Sam Marshall looks a gun.
Brisbane are gonna be full of gun mids and flankers. Sort the rest over that duration and you will be a flag chance for a long time.

 

[ep2018]

Obviously most of the talk is about adding a second Ashcroft, but Sam Marshall looks a gun.
Brisbane are gonna be full of gun mids and flankers. Sort the rest over that duration and you will be a flag chance for a long time.

Makes Dev's choice to stay bloody baffling imo. He will play (at most) half a season next year and then one or two games in 2025.

 

[MrKennedy17]

Makes Dev's choice to stay bloody baffling imo. He will play (at most) half a season next year and then one or two games in 2025.

So why do we want him then if he isn't good? That's also baffling.

 

[Cornelius Roy]

So why do we want him then if he isn't good? That's also baffling.

One argument would be becuase in the immediate term we’re not looking to win a premiership but improve from an absolute basket case to a position where we can provide an environment players can realistically develop in.

If all he did was come in and dominate the WAFL at least it provides a better training ground for someone like Jack Williams who might actually get one or two decent forward entries across the season to start playing like a regular KPF.

 

[Eddie_Sandbrah]

I think what he’s getting at is they ignore players they can’t get when assessing the value of picks

So in your example they’ll base their decisions on who they can get with the 2nd pick in the open pool. They won’t say this is really pick 7 just that when they get to pick that player will be available

I expect all they’re interested in is which players they are able to draft at any given pick- a F/S or academy player isn’t available so they don’t rank them

We do the exact same thing here.

Everyone has Walter at 2 or 3, but to make discussion less complex, everyone is going:

Reid
McKercher
Duursma
Curtin
Sanders

etc

 

[Eddie_Sandbrah]

If we take Reid and a few years down the track he ends up being a bust, I can live with it. If we split the pick and they bust while Reid becomes a gun, I’d be pretty annoyed.

Just take Reid.

Don't worry, ROB understand this too. If Harley isn't that good, he's not getting sacked, but if we trade him and he ends up A or A+ and who we take ends up B, he's getting sacked.

There may be a lot clubs doing a lot of ground work and jostling for no reason this year.

 

[Monsterdarlz]

#JTR

JustTselectReid?

 

[ziad]

Don't worry, ROB understand this too. If Harley isn't that good, he's not getting sacked, but if we trade him and he ends up A or A+ and who we take ends up B, he's getting sacked.

There may be a lot clubs doing a lot of ground work and jostling for no reason this year.

That every club in a position to do so is looking to get Reid at 1 indicates there is a broader consensus that just within these walls.

 

[Eastcoasteagle]

Even their supporters know it.

 

[geelongrecruit5]

Should check out Riley Weatherill.
The quiet achiever of the Talent League, and taller than Morris too.

I agree here, Weatherill goes really good and also stood up in the finals. At 196 I’d have him over Morris.

 

[Wooshaaaa]

Makes Dev's choice to stay bloody baffling imo. He will play (at most) half a season next year and then one or two games in 2025.

You assume no injuries then!

Nah.



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[eaglevision]

From ‘Dusty’ comparisons to getting ‘papped’ and possibly heading west: Full Q&A with top AFL draft prospect

‘Dusty’ traits, getting ‘papped’ and moving west: One-on-one with No.1 AFL prospect

www.foxsports.com.au

“I would be happy to go over there”.

The “he doesn’t want to go” arguments are getting a bit tired. It will purely come down to whether ROB is given an offer he can’t refuse. I hope for him that is 2,3 and 14 for 1 and even then…